Gary66

Re The Brigadier's summary of the Greenham, the reason Zoum Zoum does not have a Guineas entry is because as a gelding he is barred from the race.

Fascinating read above from @The Brigadier and right now it pays to go with 'inform' trainers ie R Hughes etc!......
 
From Mondays message below on thread and so far so good 🐎 👍......plus add on day 1 at Newbury
'' ps.... the 3 day Craven meeting starts tomorrow at Newmarket and if our friends hear / back anything of note, then will post it on here like last year with some nice big priced winners from them during the flat season 👌 ''  
 
Wish all well and good luck with racing Saturday 🐎 🤞 as 'we' on Grandparents duty ( after Mr Brahmin that is has bashed a white ball around a field lunchtime  🙄 ⛳ )
 

Forza Orta                                             7 05 Ths/               1/40th of a pt ew  20/1
Expressionless                                     5 00 Neb/              1/40th of a pt ew   16/1
We'llhavewan                                       3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    44/1
Iron Bridge                                            3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    33/1
Racingbreak Ryder                               3 15 Gw/               1/40th of a pt ew    36/1
First Street                                             2 25 Ayr/               1/40 th of a pt ew   14/1
Fast Tara                                                2 45 Cur/               1/40th of a pt ew    22/1
 
 
P/L   +  177.35pts     

705 Thirsk 
To Catch A Thief 3/1 on stats
Haggas for owner in 2023 8 from 21, with 4 2nds, 4 3rds.
E Oppenheimer at Thirsk 2023, 1 from 1.
Haggas sends one to Thirsk tomorrow and Cieren Fallon rides.
Fallon on Oppenheimer horses 2022 2/6, 2023 5/8.
Haggas at Thirsk 2022 5/11 45%, 2023 2/6 33%.
 
GB Flat last 5 seasons Jan 2020 - Dec 2024GB Flat last 5 seasons Jan 2020 - Dec 2024GB Flat current season Jan 2024 - Dec 2024IRE Flat last 5 seasons Jan 2020 - Dec 2024IRE Flat current season Jan 2023 - Dec 2023  

Looks like Hannon's horses are flying with decent winners at HQ & Newbury , will see if anything jumps out of his tomorrow rather than try & work out which Mullins / Skelton / Nicholls horses are most likely up in Scotland & North Wales .

225 Ayr champion hurdle 
Favour and fortune. 9.0 11/2 
First street.  8.9 12.0 Betfair 
These two are a bit clear clear of rest ...I'll try 5pt wins both 😁

Ayr 1.15 The first of five races covered by ITV is the 2M 1/2F Scotty Brand Premier Handicap Chase with just six runners going to post. Paul Nicholls’s Sans Bruit did us a favour at Aintree when given a peach of a ride from the front by Bryony Frost who came home 4L to the good and despite a 10lb rise in the weights he may still be well handicapped on his back form in France. Expect Frost to employ the same tactics and if getting into a good rhythm will be tough to pass. Willie Mullins sends a formidable team to the West Scotland track and his Uncle Phil maybe the one to chase the selection home.   SANS BRUIT 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 1.30 It’s Greenham Stakes day at Newbury and proceedings kick off with the 1M 4F Group 3 John Porter Stakes which has attracted ten runners. Ground on the easy side are very much in the favour of the front two in the betting, William Haggas’s Hamish who has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his group 3 victories last year and John & Thady Gosden’s Arrest who was last seen when finishing runner up in the St Leger at Doncaster. The Gosden runners have all been seen to be needing a run this week but the vibes are strong for this Frankel four year old and he’s the pick.   ARREST 1 point win @ 11/8 William Hill   Ayr 1.50 Thirteen face the judge for the class 2 3M Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase. Willie Mullins’s Sharjah heads the weights in his first handicap chase and shouldn’t be dismissed despite the big weight. Richard Bandey has his string in good form and he can take this with his MacLaine who looks favourably weighted towards the bottom of the weights. Formerly trained by Oliver Sherwood he’s shown promise for his new trainer with his latest victory at Newbury coming over the furthest trip he’s tried in his career over 2M 6 1/2F where he was strongest at the finish passing the line an eased down 3 1/2L ahead of his field. A rise of 8lb will make things tougher for him but with his stamina drawn out further he looks a good value each way bet in a competitive contest.   MACLAINE 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 2.05 Just six three year old fillies go to post for the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes with the highest rated being the William Haggas trained Relief Rally who isn’t certain to stay this trip of 7F mind and is opposable. John & Thady Gosden could be in for a good day with Arrest in the John Porter and can take this with their Frankel filly Regal Jubilee who will certainly enjoy any ease in the ground having won the listed Montrose Stakes on heavy ground at Newmarket last backend. Marco Botti has taken charge of a decent unbeaten Italian filly in the shape of Folgaria and she’s very hard to assess having won five times in her native country last year including in Group 3 and 2 company.   REGAL JUBILEE 1/2 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Ayr 2.25 We have a good turnout of fifteen runners for the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle which is a handicap run over a distance of two miles. Last year’s winner Rubaud heads the weights but is 13lb higher now than last year’s victory and has it to do. Willie Mullins has three stabs at the race with Paul Townend presumably choosing Bialystok over Westport Cove and Alvainy although he was 19L behind L’Eau Du Sud in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last time and I can’t see any reason why he would turn the form around despite a pull of just 3lb. Dan Skelton trains L’Eau Du Sud and he’s put up two excellent efforts in defeat in the Betfair Hurdle (2nd to Iberico Lord) and in the aforementioned County Hurdle (2nd to Absurde). A 3lb rise in the weights is unlikely to stop him from being highly competitive again and he is the one they all have to beat. Nicky Henderson has his string in great shape now and his First Street is worth a small each way saver. 8th in this last year he has a 20lb pull for 18L with the winner Rubaud and looked back to form when third to Lossiemouth in the Unibet Hurdle at Cheltenham when last seen in January. He’s also had a wind operation since last seen and can run well. A tough race but L’Eau du Sud is the selection.   L’EAU DU SUD 1 point win @ 4/1 Coral FLEET STREET 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 2.40 The trial for the 2000 Guineas is the Greenham Stakes run over 7F and we have a field of eleven. Ralph Beckett’s unbeaten Zoum Zoum heads the market but looks far too short in my eyes for a horse that on official ratings is only third joint best and joint seventh best on Timeform ratings. Even though he is very promising I can’t be going near him at his current odds of around even money (big drifter since published.) The value bet may be Adrian Keatley’s Ballymount Boy who showed good progressive form as a juvenile finishing runner up in group races won by Vandeek and Indian Run and ended the season with a listed win at the final Doncaster meeting on heavy ground. James Doyle takes the ride for his new employers Wathan Racing and can be backed each way.   BALLYMOUNT BOY 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   Ayr 3.00 Next up is a class 2 3M 70 yard mares’ handicap hurdle which has attracted a field of eleven. Willie Mullins saddles three here in his quest to maintain the advantage in the British jockeys championship and with A Penny A Hundred the pick of stable jockey Paul Townend she looks the one to be with. The lightly raced five year old is asking her handicap debut but has looked useful in winning a bumper and a novice hurdle before being placed in listed and grade three mares company. She was a 66-1 chance when not being disgraced in fourth (beaten 20L) in a grade one mares race won by the smart Jade De Grugy three weeks ago and a mark of 133 seems fair enough. The Dan Skelton runner Coco Mademoiselle (Chepstow novice hurdle winner last time) and Paul Nicholls’s Larchmont Lass look dangers but this can be one for the Irish maestro Willie Mullins.   A PENNY A HUNDRED 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365   Newbury 3.15 The big handicap of the day at Newbury is the 1M OLBG Spring Cup with a big field of 21 spread across the straight track. As you would expect it has a wide open look about it. Lincoln Handicap runner up Lattam looked a tad unlucky to me and can confirm that form with the third Navarro, fourth Alpha Crucis and seventh Thunder Ball and run well. Julie Camacho is not really firing at the present and for only that reason the selection is the Richard Hughes trained Real Gain. Hughes has been in unstoppable form recently winning with 7 of his 20 runners at time of writing and he took a handicap at Newmarket apart last September off of a mark 11lb lower than today’s on fast ground. He’s been gelded since last seen and he has to prove his effectiveness on softer ground but he wasn’t disgraced on soft group in a Group 3 when last seen and can reward an each way wager in a wide open mile handicap with a small each way saver on Lattam.   REAL GAIN 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 LATTAM 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Ayr 3.35 A near maximum field of 26 line up for this year’s renewal of the 4M Coral Scottish Grand National. There’s plenty here who will struggle at the trip with five of the six Willie Mullins having stamina to prove with Mr Incredible the exception although he’s hardly had the best prep for this having unseated at the chair in last weekend’s Grand National. My short list include Sara Bradstock’s Mr Vango who stays so well having won the Devon National by a staggering 60L prior to a creditable third in the NH Chase at Cheltenham won by subsequent Grade 1 winner Corbetts Cross. He holds decent each way claims despite a 3lb rise. Out and out stayer My Silver Lining ran a stormer in the Midlands Grand National finishing third to the re-opposing pair of Beauport and Mr Incredible and can come out best of those who finished ahead of him over this 2F less distance. My main fancy though has to be the Jamie Snowden trained Git Maker who is stepping up in trip here but has always looked an out and out stayer throughout his career. He’s only gone up a pound for finishing runner up to the handicap blot that was Inotherwayurthinkin in the Kim Muir with 18L back to the third , the re-opposing Whacker Clan. The winner has gone on to win a grade 1 at Aintree to frank the form and had he not been in the race at Cheltenham we would be looking at a 18L winner of that race who would have gone up an awful lot more than 1lb. As long as he stays he looks easily the best handicapped horse in the field. I’ve managed to tip/back the Irish National and Grand National winners this year in Intense Raffles and I Am Maximus and my main pick for the Scottish version is Git Maker with each way savers on My Silver Lining and Mr Vango.   GIT MAKER 2 points each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 MR VANGO 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 Betfred 1/5th 123456 MY SILVER LINING 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

Newb 315 
Lattam 8.9 10/1 
Navagio. 8.9 10/1 
Real gain. 8.9 14/1 
3 wAy tie ....prices are bet365 are great currently compared to others ...so posted early ......and forecasts all 3 

Sorry for the trouble I’ve not been at my best lately hopefully on the mend

Sorry for the trouble I’ve not been at my best lately hopefully on the mend

awesome pick but as stated, the deadline for all bets is Saturday at 3pm even if your games are on Sun, so I'm afraid it doesn't count. 
I won't eliminate you for 3 in a row no shows as you did attempt to play this week, but you will need to play the final 2 legs to keep your place.

Aston Villa 10.0
fulham 2.75 
20 double

I’d say “better late than never” but, in this case, the outcome is the same! Deadline is 3:00 on Saturday.

405 kemp 
Al barez 8.5 4/1 
Brazen idol. 8.3 8/1 
Holy fire. 7.8 25/1 
4pt win al barez ...2pt Ew brazen 
 

Plumpton 2.25 The ITV cameras shown just the one race from Plumpton, the 2M 3F 164 yard class 2 handicap chase. As long as the ground doesn’t dry out too much the favourite I’d Like To Know should be hard to beat. He’s looked a promising chaser in just two starts over fences in going down by a short head to Issar d’Airy on his fencing debut at Newbury prior to running out a cosy 5 1/2L winner back at the Berkshire course last month. Both those runs were on soft/heavy ground but he has hurdle form on good ground so hopefully he’ll go on todays good to soft ground. 8lb higher than last time he is still on the upgrade and will be hard to beat for local trainer Chris Gordon and jockey Rex Dingle.   I’D LIKE TO KNOW 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365   Kempton 2.55 A progressive sort trained at Newmarket by father and son combo of John & Thady Gosden who was been trained for the Winter Derby until standing on a nail a few days before and makes his seasonal re-appearance here under Kieran Shoemark in this listed 1M 1F 219 yard Magnolia Stakes. A half brother to Ascot Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami he appears to have most to fear from the William Haggas trained Dubai Honour, a dual winner in Australia last year.   LIONS PRIDE 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365   Kempton 3.30 Ten runners go to post for this 1M 2F 219 yard class 4 handicap. Jamie Osborne saddles the likely favourite in Isle Of Sark who has been placed on all three starts last month and deserves to get his head in front here under Saffie Osborne. Andrew Balding’s Cello would have needed his latest run and may turn out to be the biggest danger to the selection but this should really be going to Isle Of Sark.   ISLE OF SARK 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365   Kempton 4.05 A dozen sprinters have declared for this 6F class four handicap. Al Barez was an eye-catcher last time out at Wolverhampton and Tom Clover’s charge should be in the shake up whilst the in form Richard Hughes’s trained The Thames Boatman arrives in good form but is drawn in the car park in stall 12 of 12. James Fanshawe’s five year old Al Ameen could be a value each way play in this competitive handicap. He won over course and distance in October on his first run for Fanshawe having joined from George Boughey whilst his second to Cover Up at Lingfield the following month also looks a good piece of form. The 114 day absence shouldn’t be an issue and he can reward an each way wager.   AL AMEEN 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Kempton 4.40 Ten go to post for this 1M class 3 handicap in which Clive Cox’s Vultar and Farasi Lane bring the same form line to the race with the former beating his rival by a short head over course and distance last month. On one pound better terms there shouldn’t be much between the pair although the most interesting runner is the Roger Varian runner Dragon Icon. Thought good enough to contest the German 2000 Guineas last May, he showed on his penultimate outing over course and distance that he had a race of this calibre in him with his latest effort easily forgotten as he had the worst of the draw. James Doyle can start his association with Varian in great style by taking the first prize.   DRAGON ICON 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill   Fairyhouse 5.00 A bumper field, as always, for this year’s Irish Grand National run over a stamina sapping 3M 5F on gluey heavy ground. Willie Mullins saddles three in the contest including the favourite Nick Rockett under Paul Townend, a novice having only his fourth start over fences and his first beyond three miles. He has a solid chance but has been well found in the market and at bigger odds it may pay to play the Thomas Gibney trained, Simon Munir & Isaac Souede owned Intense Raffles who appears to have been laid out for this by a trainer who was successful in this race back in 2012 with Lion Na Bearnai. The former French gelding has won both his starts for Gibney, novice chases here over 2M 6F and 3M 1 1/2F and he could be well treated in his first handicap and with J J Slevin replacing the injured Daryl Jacob.   INTENSE RAFFLES 1 point each way @ 8/1 Ladbrokes/Coral 1/5th 12345  

Bazball                                                                  2 25 New/   1/40th of a pt  ew   20/1
Cloud Sover                                                         3 00 New/    1/40th of a pt ew   12/1          - Won
Talis Evolvery                                                       4 40 New/    1/40th of a pt ew  25/1           - Won
Furzig                                                                    1 30 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  25/1
Lexington Knight                                                 1 30 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  33/1           - 3rd
Macanudo                                                            5 00 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  18/1
Howth                                                                   1 53 New/    1/40th of a pt ew   44/1           - 4th

Didn’t really fancy anything all week today I find five
3-35 aberama gold 
4-10 elegant man
4-40 tali’s evolvere
3-15 Barenboim 
5-10 opec 
 

Didn’t really fancy anything all week today I find five
3-35 aberama gold 
4-10 elegant man
4-40 tali’s evolvere
3-15 Barenboim 
5-10 opec 
 

Didn’t really fancy anything all week today I find five
3-35 aberama gold 
4-10 elegant man
4-40 tali’s evolvere
3-15 Barenboim 
5-10 opec 
 

Didn’t really fancy anything all week today I find five
3-35 aberama gold 
4-10 elegant man
4-40 tali’s evolvere
3-15 Barenboim 
5-10 opec 
 

Didn’t really fancy anything all week today I find five
3-35 aberama gold 
4-10 elegant man
4-40 tali’s evolvere
3-15 Barenboim 
5-10 opec 
 

Didn’t really fancy anything all week today I find five
3-35 aberama gold 
4-10 elegant man
4-40 tali’s evolvere
3-15 Barenboim 
5-10 opec 
 

Didn’t really fancy anything all week today I find five
3-35 aberama gold 
4-10 elegant man
4-40 tali’s evolvere
3-15 Barenboim 
5-10 opec 
 

Lots of fantastic AW racing today, the wife's away for a few days so it'll just me and the dog watching it on TV
Newcastle 2.25
SOMMELIER

Good luck with all of them today richard  "wondered if you looked at Irish national on monday yet"  ive punted Good Time Jonny"  @ 22's  last week