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Mikael Ymer to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.95 with William Hill
Someone posted a little while ago how bad Tsonga has been since returning from injury, and in particular against Gerasimov (his only grass match since 2019). Ymer has played at a decent level recently, defeating Monfils and Carballes Baena at the French Open - before losing 3-0 to Sinner. Ymer will have a big fitness edge, and the confidence that comes from actually winning matches. 
Tsonga on the other hand has won 1 match since the end of 2019. In 2021 his win:loss is 1:6. He has won a total of 3/17 sets played. 

Mikael Ymer to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.95 with William Hill
Someone posted a little while ago how bad Tsonga has been since returning from injury, and in particular against Gerasimov (his only grass match since 2019). Ymer has played at a decent level recently, defeating Monfils and Carballes Baena at the French Open - before losing 3-0 to Sinner. Ymer will have a big fitness edge, and the confidence that comes from actually winning matches. 
Tsonga on the other hand has won 1 match since the end of 2019. In 2021 his win:loss is 1:6. He has won a total of 3/17 sets played. 

Mikael Ymer to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.95 with William Hill
Someone posted a little while ago how bad Tsonga has been since returning from injury, and in particular against Gerasimov (his only grass match since 2019). Ymer has played at a decent level recently, defeating Monfils and Carballes Baena at the French Open - before losing 3-0 to Sinner. Ymer will have a big fitness edge, and the confidence that comes from actually winning matches. 
Tsonga on the other hand has won 1 match since the end of 2019. In 2021 his win:loss is 1:6. He has won a total of 3/17 sets played. 

Fritz has had an operation and just returned in time for SW19 so his level of fitness should be lower than usual.

somewhat surprising that no-one nailed the Krejcikova vs. Pavlyuchenkova final pre-tournament really.

Tsitsipas + Nadal at 1.90 with bet365
I add this one for tomorrow. The reasons why I think the greek will beat Zverev are in my other bet pending and the reasons why I think Nadal will beat Nole are in my previous post.

I am even more tempted to go with Krejikova after reading a comment like this. Losing money in style is the natural default state of a gambler so one will not be doing anything really different going with a favorite like Sakkaraki as you have preferred to call her. Sakkari has always looked like this female Lion that you have described. It certainly did not come into view after her victory over Iga. And by the way Iga had been long overdue for a heavy defeat as players were now beginning to catch up with her game. This is something that every player has to go through till they rediscover themselves a second time, We saw that with players with Muguruza, and recently with Kenin, Vekic, Kerber . Some players never quite make it back like Bouchard. In what has certainly been a very erratic and strange tournament I almost feel the best way forward is to only play with what you can afford to lose then aim to lose it in style to have a chance of winning. I strongly feel that Krejikova is the best on the field left especially with her very convincing 2-0 h2h over Sakkari. the set score in both cases will clearly suggest that Krej is master. Nothing would have changed much. I feel the bookies much have had some balls to make Sakkari favorite. Anyone who beats the tournament favorite should be favorite in their opinion. After all What do they care if such thinking has the potential to drown a few unsuspecting punters.

p.s woah, Djokovic rage. any Serbian translators in the building?

p.s woah, Djokovic rage. any Serbian translators in the building?

Shocked by some of the results today, I reckon it's high time to start looking at the grass matches!

The only decent player Sakkari has come past so far is Elise Mertens. Kenin was utterly woeful. Yes this is a huge opportunity for her - as in, she may not come up against a weaker field than this deep in a grand slam, but I just can't envision her coming past Swiatek. If she does, somehow, then maybe it could be her year. Great potential for sure. 
As I said pre-tournament, my dark horse is Paula Badosa. I think she has the game to defeat Iga on her day, and her route to the final seems very possible. you only need to watch her 2-0 win vs. Barty in Charleston to see how good she can be. 
Pavs also very impressive to come from a set down to defeat Vika and Sabalenka - although Sabalenka did kind of defeat herself a bit. Her match vs. Rybakina will be a fun one. 

The only decent player Sakkari has come past so far is Elise Mertens. Kenin was utterly woeful. Yes this is a huge opportunity for her - as in, she may not come up against a weaker field than this deep in a grand slam, but I just can't envision her coming past Swiatek. If she does, somehow, then maybe it could be her year. Great potential for sure. 
As I said pre-tournament, my dark horse is Paula Badosa. I think she has the game to defeat Iga on her day, and her route to the final seems very possible. you only need to watch her 2-0 win vs. Barty in Charleston to see how good she can be. 
Pavs also very impressive to come from a set down to defeat Vika and Sabalenka - although Sabalenka did kind of defeat herself a bit. Her match vs. Rybakina will be a fun one. 

anyone noticed how this years women's RG is going down a very similar route to last years?
Swiatek cruising, Kenin running deep, Badosa surprising people, most of the bigger names and early favorites either out or have withdrawn.
Predicting a last 4 of Gauff vs. Swiatek and Badosa vs. Pavlyuchenckova
Huge opportunity for the likes of Gauff, Jabeur, Sakkari, Rybakina etc to grab a first GS title. 

anyone noticed how this years women's RG is going down a very similar route to last years?
Swiatek cruising, Kenin running deep, Badosa surprising people, most of the bigger names and early favorites either out or have withdrawn.
Predicting a last 4 of Gauff vs. Swiatek and Badosa vs. Pavlyuchenckova
Huge opportunity for the likes of Gauff, Jabeur, Sakkari, Rybakina etc to grab a first GS title. 

From the WTA tour, i can't see any way that Badosa will lose today. For me Badosa is another safe bet. 
However, we all suffered heavily from the results of the WTA tour in all tournaments in all decades.
So 5/10 confidence on this one

Are you basing this off of one match? Badosa should very much be favorite here. 

I'd argue that Ash Barty is slowly becoming the dominant player in women's tennis - you may have noticed her making making every final this year? It's not luck.
Because a player is 50-1 or 500-1 does not make them automatic ''value'' at RG. There's a reason Donna Vekic or Jo Konta are 600-1 or whatever, and that reason is that they just aren't going to win a grand slam. It would be like North Macedonia (780.0s) winning Euro 2020. The players you've quoted - I mean, have you actually seen them play recently?
Finding value isn't as easy as ''well she's a big price, and 'Penko did win this that one time!''
I agree Swiatek odds seem short, but those odds based on how good her performances have been recently coupled with her dominance of RG less than a year ago. I do not think she's over-hyped at all. 
It takes a LOT for someone to get past Barty, Swiatek or a fired up Sabalenka nowadays. most players are drawing dead or close to, and most of the 'big names' are in horrible form (Karolina Pliskova, Serena, Osaka, Kenin).
I honestly don't know where the value lies is in terms of the long odds this year. I would have said Halep, but she's pulled out. I would suggest Kvitova at 32.0 or Badosa at 40.0 (based on their draws) as dark horses. 

I'd argue that Ash Barty is slowly becoming the dominant player in women's tennis - you may have noticed her making making every final this year? It's not luck.
Because a player is 50-1 or 500-1 does not make them automatic ''value'' at RG. There's a reason Donna Vekic or Jo Konta are 600-1 or whatever, and that reason is that they just aren't going to win a grand slam. It would be like North Macedonia (780.0s) winning Euro 2020. The players you've quoted - I mean, have you actually seen them play recently?
Finding value isn't as easy as ''well she's a big price, and 'Penko did win this that one time!''
I agree Swiatek odds seem short, but those odds based on how good her performances have been recently coupled with her dominance of RG less than a year ago. I do not think she's over-hyped at all. 
It takes a LOT for someone to get past Barty, Swiatek or a fired up Sabalenka nowadays. most players are drawing dead or close to, and most of the 'big names' are in horrible form (Karolina Pliskova, Serena, Osaka, Kenin).
I honestly don't know where the value lies is in terms of the long odds this year. I would have said Halep, but she's pulled out. I would suggest Kvitova at 32.0 or Badosa at 40.0 (based on their draws) as dark horses. 

I'd argue that Ash Barty is slowly becoming the dominant player in women's tennis - you may have noticed her making making every final this year? It's not luck.
Because a player is 50-1 or 500-1 does not make them automatic ''value'' at RG. There's a reason Donna Vekic or Jo Konta are 600-1 or whatever, and that reason is that they just aren't going to win a grand slam. It would be like North Macedonia (780.0s) winning Euro 2020. The players you've quoted - I mean, have you actually seen them play recently?
Finding value isn't as easy as ''well she's a big price, and 'Penko did win this that one time!''
I agree Swiatek odds seem short, but those odds based on how good her performances have been recently coupled with her dominance of RG less than a year ago. I do not think she's over-hyped at all. 
It takes a LOT for someone to get past Barty, Swiatek or a fired up Sabalenka nowadays. most players are drawing dead or close to, and most of the 'big names' are in horrible form (Karolina Pliskova, Serena, Osaka, Kenin).
I honestly don't know where the value lies is in terms of the long odds this year. I would have said Halep, but she's pulled out. I would suggest Kvitova at 32.0 or Badosa at 40.0 (based on their draws) as dark horses. 

I'd argue that Ash Barty is slowly becoming the dominant player in women's tennis - you may have noticed her making making every final this year? It's not luck.
Because a player is 50-1 or 500-1 does not make them automatic ''value'' at RG. There's a reason Donna Vekic or Jo Konta are 600-1 or whatever, and that reason is that they just aren't going to win a grand slam. It would be like North Macedonia (780.0s) winning Euro 2020. The players you've quoted - I mean, have you actually seen them play recently?
Finding value isn't as easy as ''well she's a big price, and 'Penko did win this that one time!''
I agree Swiatek odds seem short, but those odds based on how good her performances have been recently coupled with her dominance of RG less than a year ago. I do not think she's over-hyped at all. 
It takes a LOT for someone to get past Barty, Swiatek or a fired up Sabalenka nowadays. most players are drawing dead or close to, and most of the 'big names' are in horrible form (Karolina Pliskova, Serena, Osaka, Kenin).
I honestly don't know where the value lies is in terms of the long odds this year. I would have said Halep, but she's pulled out. I would suggest Kvitova at 32.0 or Badosa at 40.0 (based on their draws) as dark horses. 

I like Maria, but based on what I've seen of her in 2021, she won't get very far. Drummed by Gauff in Rome, beaten by Muchova, Krejikcova, Mladenovic etc recently. She even struggled to put away Hercog earlier this month.
Too many errors, and struggles on serve. I've seen her lose her head on so many occasions, so just can't see her coming past any of the big favorites - who seem to have the emotional side of the game a little more...nailed down. 
imo she is 50-1 for a reason. 

Can anyone envision anyone other than Barty, Iga or Sabalenka winning the women's FO this year? pretty much everyone else is either in horrible form this clay season or coming back from injury. 
My dark horse to run deep is the on-fire Paula Badosa. 
 

Absolutely not because she will have to strike first by breaking serve and hitting winners from start from all kinds of different angles but even then it wont be enough. The russian did a good job yesterday versus Olga but Olga hasn't done crap since winning that title in Moscow 3 years ago and Olga played exactly like crap 80% of the match racking up a huge amount of unforced errors. Can't even understand why Olga was the favourite when she even had lost to Rakhi twice in straight sets last season and you could get 2.25 on Rakhi. Still it's very likely Rakhi will have a bit to mutch to handle because this colombian she faces keeps her errorcount down which is the main reason behind her success lately.
 

Random thought (from watching yet another Camile Giorgi match): Could Camile potentially be / have been a top 15-20 player if she didn't have her weird, bonkers dad as coach (for her entire career), and instead had a proper coach who actually fixed her many leaks instead of shouting at umpires and throwing tantrums?

Random thought (from watching yet another Camile Giorgi match): Could Camile potentially be / have been a top 15-20 player if she didn't have her weird, bonkers dad as coach (for her entire career), and instead had a proper coach who actually fixed her many leaks instead of shouting at umpires and throwing tantrums?