Jves

No, that is just Pliskova. She never looks like running or happy or angry or anything basically
 

Good for Bencic, won her first game and avoid the ? against Anett

WTA Australian Open:
Cori Gauff - Sofia Kenin [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Gauff is the biggest talent in women tennis for sure, but for me, she is still not compareable to top level players. In Auckland she lost with claycourter Siegemund and here she won with career ending Venus, overturned being 0-3 down in third set vs Cirstea, and today the biggest upset, easy win over Osaka. But those who were watching the game could see, that Gauff didnt win, Osaka gifted the match to her, as I never saw such bad Osaka ever, really ever. She didnt hit a single shot. But thanks to this result (not performance) we have a huge value on Kenin.

I wrote about Kenin many times last year (on other platform) and she is going up step by step. Here she didn't lose a set yet and after easy opening rounds, she played good match today with, in great form playing, Zhang.

If I compare both players perfomances this year, Cori is far from Sofia at the moment. The only aspect of the game, where Gauff is better, is 1st serve and that wont be enough. Those odds are too much affected by todays win, and 1.7 seems really as a gift to me. (Osaka was 1,15 today and Kenin 1,7? No way. Osaka is only little better than Kenin in my books) GL

WTA Australian Open:
Camila Giorgi - Angelique Kerber [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Giorgi (WTA 102) is back in form finally. Last year after the succesful Australian Open, she didnt win a match for 6 months, including 3 months break for back problems after Miami. After that, she was outside top100, but finals in Washington and NY brought her back. This season she started solid and here she is playing best tennis since last AO. Easily overcame Lottner, who was in good mood here, and Kuznetsova, who was also surprisingly dangerous and eliminated Vondrousova. Giorgi was doing only few mistakes in both matches.

Kerber WTA 18 is only shadow of Kerber from past years.  She is weak mostly in her confidence, as she lost with many average players. Only results from Australian Open and Indian Wells are keeping her in top20. Since Toronto she is just on 7W-11L  record and this year looks not much better, as she lost with Stosur and retired to Yastremska while being down in the match. Here she played quite ok on her current level, but both Cocciaretto and Hon made tons of errors.

I see this match as equal one. Camile impressed me in the match with Kuznetsova and with the low number of errors. I think she will be able to keep her shots in court again and defeat Kerbers defence. GL

Yeah, thought the odds were kind of the wrong way round given Fognini's pedigree on hard. Took the bet in the end, happy it paid off.

@South_African_Punter that 2.25 was only because he played two five setters, otherwise we would have undoubtedly seen him as a favourite and he would start around his opening odds, around 1.70. It’s hard court, he is definitely the more talented and better player. I think he’s a bit special, if it was any other player, the cumulative tiredness after two 5 setters would play a big role in my decision, but with him it’s different. He seems to stop trying, so the two lost sets don’t cost him that much energy and that he can win in 5, says to me he is a bit more serious about his business. But that is only my opinion. I have a soft spot for him as he is incredibly fun to watch. If he wins this one, he plays Sandgren, who seems to brought a very good form. Would love to see the odds.
 
 
 

Forgot to add one:
Pella - Fognini: Fognini - Evens @ various bookies

Rest of my bets for the 3rd round:
Bencic - Kontaveit: Bencic - 1.70 Sportingbet (min. 1.65)
Vekic - Swiatek: Swiatek - 2.39 Marathonbet (min. 2.30)
Putintseva - Halep: Halep - 1.36 (min. 1.34)
Svitolina - Muguruza: Svitolina - 1.52 (min. 1.45)
Giorgi - Kerber: Giorgi - 2.62 (min. 2.55) 

I know you would love to have a reasoning, but most of my bets are based on the price I think it should be based on the model and then comparing to the odds available. To sum it it up, all of those odds above are too high in my opinion and should show a profit over the long run. Those min odds does not mean anything less is a bad bet with no value, it just gives enough big cushion in case things goes sideways. 
       

It's probably the perception that he's a clay-courter - which he is - but he's had some good results on hard. I think there's some value in those odds.

@Valentine It's general consensus, the bigger the tournament, more money is in the market and more info available, which means more accurate odds, so it's harder to find any kind of edge. It's much easier to find your edge in the smaller tournaments.

Also, if you want to predict results, buy a crystal bowl ? ? You should be focusing on finding value (odds where you think the bookie/market do not have it right) instead of predicting results. Sounds similar, but it's completely different.  

@Valentine It's general consensus, the bigger the tournament, more money is in the market and more info available, which means more accurate odds, so it's harder to find any kind of edge. It's much easier to find your edge in the smaller tournaments.

Also, if you want to predict results, buy a crystal bowl ? ? You should be focusing on finding value (odds where you think the bookie/market do not have it right) instead of predicting results. Sounds similar, but it's completely different.  

I've just joined this forum today and it is really interesting reading so thank you to all the contributers for their knowledge and insight. Hopefully I'll be also be able to share tips with all of you. Just in relation to the match between Goffin and Herbert I do think they are both playing well but I really think Goffin will be too good for Herbert. I like Herbert as a player and they are both very similar however Goffin is at the top of his game and ran Nadal ragged a few weeks ago. I like the look of Basilashvilli to get by Fiasco Verdasco today. While the odds aren't that generous at 2.30 I think he'll see this as a great opportunity to get into the next round. Verdasco once he gets frustrated which he certainly will at some point in this match is a calamity waiting to happen. Anyway best of luck to all of you having a bet tonight. 

Heather Watson to beat Elise Mertens at 3.50 with Parions Sport
 
Watson is playing well right now and has already beaten Mertens in Hobart last week. It was a tough match for the Brit but she showed that she had the technical and mental resources to beat the Belgian. It will be a difficult match because Mertens will want her revenge but I couldn't have missed out on such a tempting odds 

Bedene - Gulbis: Bedene 1.62 @ various bookies (min price 1.55)
These are odds I cannot leave hang in there. I know Gulbis beat Felix and played quite well, but nothing in 2019 till now shows he can repeat such a performance. I know I said I don't give much weight to ATP Cup, but seems like Felix's performance was not poor due to lack of motivation, but purely because he is not in the best form, therefore, even though it's a big result for Latvian, I am not considering it as something, which would indicate sudden growth in performance. Bedene's performances were always bad playing Australian Open, however I do not think he will pass on this opportunity to equalise his GS maximum by advancing to the 3rd round. 
 

Bedene - Gulbis: Bedene 1.62 @ various bookies (min price 1.55)
These are odds I cannot leave hang in there. I know Gulbis beat Felix and played quite well, but nothing in 2019 till now shows he can repeat such a performance. I know I said I don't give much weight to ATP Cup, but seems like Felix's performance was not poor due to lack of motivation, but purely because he is not in the best form, therefore, even though it's a big result for Latvian, I am not considering it as something, which would indicate sudden growth in performance. Bedene's performances were always bad playing Australian Open, however I do not think he will pass on this opportunity to equalise his GS maximum by advancing to the 3rd round. 
 

@Teodore OK, she had one bad match recently - against Pegula, but her other results support the odds. Personally, if someone put a gun to my head, I say odds on Jabeur are still too low for my liking, so I would go with Wozniacki. However, if you do not have anything else in mind (like number of sets or games) I'd just leave it. 

Does Cilic to win @ 1.4 really worth it?!  Really..  I mean his stamina is so questionable,  he had rough year of 2019 almost lost in every 3 games.  Only AO where he last little bit longer.. But it was a year ago..  i feel here Benoit have a chance. Dont want to make up your minds,  but be carefull,  and GL if you won't! 

Not a bad start to the Aussie Open at all. I am only disappointed by Edmund's performance, who never looked like the same player after the rain interruption. So good job to those, who backed Lajovic. Hurkacz decided to make it a little bit harder for himself and nervier for us, but at the end, he got there. Nothing to say to my other selections.
For 2nd round I am going with:
1. Rybakina - Minnen: Rybakina to win - 1.40 @ Bet365 (I would think about taking 1.36)
In the 2nd round, Rybakina meets the Belgian qualifier and with all due respect to Minnen's good performances, Rybakina is a different class, especially in the current form, she has a good serve, does not make many double faults. She has proven over the last couple of weeks, she can beat much tougher opponents. So, even though 1.40 is almost on the very bottom of my value line for this match, I personally do not see any other result, than 2:0, but for the piece of mind, I am going only with the match odds.
2. Fognini - Thompson: Fognini to win - 1.62 @ BFSB (min. 1.54) 
I go with Fognini as well here, but for a different reason. Coming back from 2:0 down against big serving Shrek (seriously, look at Opelka  ) is something, what I was not expecting, not because Fabio wouldn't be able to do that, but because that match had all the parameters of the matches, which Fabio usually only turns up to take prize money. That performance showed me, he might actually be taking this AO seriously. TBH, looking at his draw, he should be able to make it to QFs. So as it has been mentioned, backing Fabio always carries a risk, but I am willing to take it.
3. Muguruza - Tomjanovic: Muguruza - 1.73 @ Betway (min. 1.70) 
Again, this seems like a risky match, considering Muguruza's recent withdrawal due to some kind of virus. She will have enough time to rest and fully recover after her win over Rogers in 3 sets, where she looked awful in the first set, but then create a storm in the final two sets. If there weren't any doubts about Muguruza's health, I think we would see something around 1.55. Tomljanovic seems to have some kind of performance issue on during AO, when she always lost in the first round. So even there's still the uncertainty about Muguruza's health, I am taking that price.

So far that's it, I might have a few more later as I am yet to look on Thursday's men matches and have also some more shortlisted.
 

Not a bad start to the Aussie Open at all. I am only disappointed by Edmund's performance, who never looked like the same player after the rain interruption. So good job to those, who backed Lajovic. Hurkacz decided to make it a little bit harder for himself and nervier for us, but at the end, he got there. Nothing to say to my other selections.
For 2nd round I am going with:
1. Rybakina - Minnen: Rybakina to win - 1.40 @ Bet365 (I would think about taking 1.36)
In the 2nd round, Rybakina meets the Belgian qualifier and with all due respect to Minnen's good performances, Rybakina is a different class, especially in the current form, she has a good serve, does not make many double faults. She has proven over the last couple of weeks, she can beat much tougher opponents. So, even though 1.40 is almost on the very bottom of my value line for this match, I personally do not see any other result, than 2:0, but for the piece of mind, I am going only with the match odds.
2. Fognini - Thompson: Fognini to win - 1.62 @ BFSB (min. 1.54) 
I go with Fognini as well here, but for a different reason. Coming back from 2:0 down against big serving Shrek (seriously, look at Opelka  ) is something, what I was not expecting, not because Fabio wouldn't be able to do that, but because that match had all the parameters of the matches, which Fabio usually only turns up to take prize money. That performance showed me, he might actually be taking this AO seriously. TBH, looking at his draw, he should be able to make it to QFs. So as it has been mentioned, backing Fabio always carries a risk, but I am willing to take it.
3. Muguruza - Tomjanovic: Muguruza - 1.73 @ Betway (min. 1.70) 
Again, this seems like a risky match, considering Muguruza's recent withdrawal due to some kind of virus. She will have enough time to rest and fully recover after her win over Rogers in 3 sets, where she looked awful in the first set, but then create a storm in the final two sets. If there weren't any doubts about Muguruza's health, I think we would see something around 1.55. Tomljanovic seems to have some kind of performance issue on during AO, when she always lost in the first round. So even there's still the uncertainty about Muguruza's health, I am taking that price.

So far that's it, I might have a few more later as I am yet to look on Thursday's men matches and have also some more shortlisted.
 

Not a bad start to the Aussie Open at all. I am only disappointed by Edmund's performance, who never looked like the same player after the rain interruption. So good job to those, who backed Lajovic. Hurkacz decided to make it a little bit harder for himself and nervier for us, but at the end, he got there. Nothing to say to my other selections.
For 2nd round I am going with:
1. Rybakina - Minnen: Rybakina to win - 1.40 @ Bet365 (I would think about taking 1.36)
In the 2nd round, Rybakina meets the Belgian qualifier and with all due respect to Minnen's good performances, Rybakina is a different class, especially in the current form, she has a good serve, does not make many double faults. She has proven over the last couple of weeks, she can beat much tougher opponents. So, even though 1.40 is almost on the very bottom of my value line for this match, I personally do not see any other result, than 2:0, but for the piece of mind, I am going only with the match odds.
2. Fognini - Thompson: Fognini to win - 1.62 @ BFSB (min. 1.54) 
I go with Fognini as well here, but for a different reason. Coming back from 2:0 down against big serving Shrek (seriously, look at Opelka  ) is something, what I was not expecting, not because Fabio wouldn't be able to do that, but because that match had all the parameters of the matches, which Fabio usually only turns up to take prize money. That performance showed me, he might actually be taking this AO seriously. TBH, looking at his draw, he should be able to make it to QFs. So as it has been mentioned, backing Fabio always carries a risk, but I am willing to take it.
3. Muguruza - Tomjanovic: Muguruza - 1.73 @ Betway (min. 1.70) 
Again, this seems like a risky match, considering Muguruza's recent withdrawal due to some kind of virus. She will have enough time to rest and fully recover after her win over Rogers in 3 sets, where she looked awful in the first set, but then create a storm in the final two sets. If there weren't any doubts about Muguruza's health, I think we would see something around 1.55. Tomljanovic seems to have some kind of performance issue on during AO, when she always lost in the first round. So even there's still the uncertainty about Muguruza's health, I am taking that price.

So far that's it, I might have a few more later as I am yet to look on Thursday's men matches and have also some more shortlisted.
 

Not a bad start to the Aussie Open at all. I am only disappointed by Edmund's performance, who never looked like the same player after the rain interruption. So good job to those, who backed Lajovic. Hurkacz decided to make it a little bit harder for himself and nervier for us, but at the end, he got there. Nothing to say to my other selections.
For 2nd round I am going with:
1. Rybakina - Minnen: Rybakina to win - 1.40 @ Bet365 (I would think about taking 1.36)
In the 2nd round, Rybakina meets the Belgian qualifier and with all due respect to Minnen's good performances, Rybakina is a different class, especially in the current form, she has a good serve, does not make many double faults. She has proven over the last couple of weeks, she can beat much tougher opponents. So, even though 1.40 is almost on the very bottom of my value line for this match, I personally do not see any other result, than 2:0, but for the piece of mind, I am going only with the match odds.
2. Fognini - Thompson: Fognini to win - 1.62 @ BFSB (min. 1.54) 
I go with Fognini as well here, but for a different reason. Coming back from 2:0 down against big serving Shrek (seriously, look at Opelka  ) is something, what I was not expecting, not because Fabio wouldn't be able to do that, but because that match had all the parameters of the matches, which Fabio usually only turns up to take prize money. That performance showed me, he might actually be taking this AO seriously. TBH, looking at his draw, he should be able to make it to QFs. So as it has been mentioned, backing Fabio always carries a risk, but I am willing to take it.
3. Muguruza - Tomjanovic: Muguruza - 1.73 @ Betway (min. 1.70) 
Again, this seems like a risky match, considering Muguruza's recent withdrawal due to some kind of virus. She will have enough time to rest and fully recover after her win over Rogers in 3 sets, where she looked awful in the first set, but then create a storm in the final two sets. If there weren't any doubts about Muguruza's health, I think we would see something around 1.55. Tomljanovic seems to have some kind of performance issue on during AO, when she always lost in the first round. So even there's still the uncertainty about Muguruza's health, I am taking that price.

So far that's it, I might have a few more later as I am yet to look on Thursday's men matches and have also some more shortlisted.
 

Trouble with him is he has so much talent, but so little will to use it.  

I just cannot help it, but I need to react.
Being a pro-tipster does not mean you need to be able to predict how will the tournament finish. Being a pro tipster, you should know, (as you said you are) means to have a long-term ability to find a “good” price, a value price, a price, where you think the chance of X happening is bigger than the odds on offer and market got it wrong. Calling Halep possible loss a big upset seems to me a bit over the top, when market thinks there is roughly 33% chance of it. I call a big upset Shapovalov’s loss 3:1, mainly a big upset for you assuming you back your tips.
 

I just cannot help it, but I need to react.
Being a pro-tipster does not mean you need to be able to predict how will the tournament finish. Being a pro tipster, you should know, (as you said you are) means to have a long-term ability to find a “good” price, a value price, a price, where you think the chance of X happening is bigger than the odds on offer and market got it wrong. Calling Halep possible loss a big upset seems to me a bit over the top, when market thinks there is roughly 33% chance of it. I call a big upset Shapovalov’s loss 3:1, mainly a big upset for you assuming you back your tips.
 

Well, Australian Open underway at games interrupted by rain right on the day one. To see the good side of that, it will probably help with the quality of air. Here are my tips for today’s matches:
Swiatek - Babos: Swiatek to win, 1.82 @ Unibet, 888sport (I would go here as low as 1.7 min)
Vekic - Sharapova: Vekic to win, 1.72 @ 365 (again, 1.62 should still be good enough)
Davis - Fernandez: Davis to win, 1.4 @ 365, Marathonbet (I don’t particularly enjoy low odds, but here I would go even at 1.32)
Hurkacz - Novak: Hurkacz to win, 1.44 @ William Hill, 365 (1.36 min)
Not really bold bets