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Villa Chris

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Posts posted by Villa Chris

  1. I’ve been on a crap run lately.  Been trying various systems out but not betting on them, which has been quite enjoyable . Last week I tried the Clive Holt fineform system just out of curiosity.  Tried it for four days. First day I just did one meeting with it and it produced a £60 profit off £10 stake per race. The second day I did every race at every meeting that day. Ended up with a 33% strike rate and a £240 pound profit. One horse came in at 20/1. The third day it produced a small profit then I tried it with my selections on the Saturday and no luck.  
     

    I do like the system as it’s simple and also gives you good basic building blocks to study a race. I do think you have to add your own filters to it though like if the horse can run on the going , or can it produce it in a higher class . I’ve decided I’m not going to bother with any class 5 or 6 races ,  and just concentrate on one meeting on the Saturday, so it narrows the field down a bit and I don’t end up with loads of selections. Ideally I want 4 horses that stand out with ratings so I can have 2 singles and a double. I’ve looked at tomorrow’s cards and decided York will be the meeting I’ll concentrate on. I’ve seen enough last week to make me believe there is profit in the system providing you don’t go in blind on the selections regarding ground conditions and class. At The Races race cards are good for assessing a horses form on going and on class. 

  2. 16 hours ago, ralphie7 said:

    Friday 12/06/2020

    Curragh 05:10 NORDIC PASSAGE

    f/c. 3/1

    Stake =  10 pts. WIN

    been a while fingers crossed

    The start cost him . Bolted through in the end, but left himself too much to do. Definitely one to be on in its next race. 

  3. 22 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    Haydock 2.15 

    94.2 Mancini 9/1  , 4th

    89 Blue Laureate 11/2 , 2nd

    Naas 5.05

    94.6 Nurse Barbara 6/1 , pulled up

    94 Summer Sands 11/4 , 8th

    93.4 Flaming Princess 16/1, 12th

    Naas 5.35

    101 Forever In Dreams 3/1 , 4th

    100.6 Buffer Zone 6/1, 3rd

    99.75 Sergei Prokofiev 11/2, 5th

     

     

  4. Haydock 2.15 

    94.2 Mancini 9/1  , 4th

    89 Blue Laureate 11/2 , 2nd

    Naas 5.05

    94.6 Nurse Barbara 6/1 , pulled up

    94 Summer Sands 11/4 , 8th

    93.4 Flaming Princess 16/1, 12th

    Naas 5.35

    101 Forever In Dreams 3/1 , 4th

    100.6 Buffer Zone 6/1, 3rd

    99.75 Sergei Prokofiev 11/2, 5th

     

  5. 1 minute ago, Valiant Thor said:

    I wouldn't worry too much if I were you, variance in the results atm will be just the same as the beginning of any season,

    Very true . With everything that’s going on, it’s made it even more unpredictable. Might test it everyday next week without parting with my cash and see how it looks then. 

  6. A terrible start to racing for me too. I’m still trying to find a system that works for me. You lot will laugh but what I did for yesterday’s racing was find the top 3 highest prize money races excluding the 2000 Guineas. I then rated horses in the field by last years  RPR ratings that they were given per race. Added them all up then divided them by how many races they had in 2019. The highest average would be my pick, or the top two highest rated. Terrebellum won her race at short odds but other than that it didn’t really show I was on to anything .

  7. On 5/14/2019 at 7:48 PM, richard-westwood said:

    3.00 York 

    Limato 849  11   121   99       (15 )

    Brandi   540  9   125  110    (7)

    El astro   168   9   117   95   (22)

    George Bowen   220   11   117   103   (19)

    Hey Jones     77   7   118   110   (16)

    Invincible army    230  19  122   100   ( 16)

    Major jumbo  230  6  117  100   (14)

    Ornate  90   11   109  96  (26)

    Projection  120  9   121  107  (15)

    Yafta    225   10   121    105   (14) 

    Well.......Pretty cut and dry this one ......brando .....5/1 ......can back ew at that price 

    1 Top prizemoney race 

    2 Rated all horses 

    3 Class rating ..total win prizemoney / number of wins then divided by100

    Ive also done a recent class rating myself (last 24 monthes )...brando comes out top on that too

    4 Recent form ...add up last 3 runs form figures so 213 =6 ......0=10 

    5 Rate 1 i used rpr racing post 

    6 Rating2  i used topspeed 

    7 Then score each section the highest class gets 1 point .....next 2 pts etc 

    Recent form ...lowest score gets 1 pt ...2nd lowest 2pts etc 

    Rpr ....highest gets 1pt ....2nd highest 2pts etc 

    Speed ...highest gets 1pt ...2nd highest 2pts etc 

    8 total up scores .....lowest is best 

    And thats it in a nutshell 

     

     

     

     

    Richard, do you still use this system? I ask because I’ve noticed your picks are the highest number not the lowest. 

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