Villa Chris
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Posts posted by Villa Chris
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Goodwood
1.10 Bal Mal 4/1 5th
1.45 Zabeel Champion 5/1 2nd
2.15 Supremacy 11/2 winner
2.45 Al Aasy 9/2 Last
3.15 Nazeef 5/2 3rd
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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Hi VC,
Is it possible for you to post up your selections and results under Racing Chat for each day, e.g today's heading was Racing Chat Wednesday 29th July ATR PL forum. Obviously tweaks and and amendments to your system can quite rightly be placed here should you welcome anyone else's comments or opinions
Yes , will do.
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12 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Well good luck with it.
It seems a bit harsh not to give any points if a horse at least won once on the Going. Some experts say that the going or extreme changes in it can seriously affect a horse's chances. Some trainers frequently pull horses out of a race because of changes in the going.
With courses, it may be good to allow for horses that have won on different types of surfaces e.g. Turf, All Weather (and these tracks vary also).
Over the jumps it may pay to differentiate between hurdles, chase and/or NHF races.With regard to class, I'm not sure what you mean by one point. Is this awarded because a horse is running in the same class or has dropped a grade. It occurs to me that there should be no points for a horse in the same class, one for a drop in grade and, perhaps minus one for a horse being upped in grade.
I do wish you all the best with this whatever you do but I would urge you to keep stakes low until you feel confident about the system working profitably. There is of course some quite big changes to racing coming up with the main flat season not lasting for too long now and of course we have the nursery races that seem to have loads of runners. Also there is a change over to the jumps season occurring quite soon.
In any event enjoy your 5 days off, I'm sure that you have worked hard for it ☺️
You’ll get a lot of horses that have won on most goings. Some that prefer it soft may have won a few time’s on Good. I just think having a horse that’s won more than once on a certain going indicates that it can run well on that going. As for the class I’d award a horse a point if it’s won in that class or above before. I’m just tinkering about with stuff , but using the fine form points model. Only did some low stakes today. I’ll do same tomorrow.
Yeah off to the seaside for a few days to blow the lockdown cobwebs away.
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1.10 Gd: Bal Mal
1.45 Gd: Zabeel Champion
2.15 Gd: Supremacy
2.45 Gd: Al Aasy
3.15 Gd: Nazeef
3.45 Gd: William Bligh
4.20 Gd: Teodolina
4.55 Gd: Winter Power -
I’ve tweaked that system about a bit.
1st, 5 (7 points if horse won more that 2 lengths lto
2nd ,3 points(providing lto there was more than 4 horses running. If not, then no points)
3rd, 2 points( providing lto there was more than 7 horses running. If not then no points)
4th , 1 point(Providing lto there was more than 10 runners. If not then no points)
CD, 3
Distance ,2
Course ,1
Going , 2(Providing horse has won more than once on the going. No points if not)
Class , 1 point
Tried that out today . 2/5, so will see how tomorrow goes . Forgot to put selections up today as been really busy at work. Got 5 days off now.
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2 hours ago, calva decoy said:
Shame to hear about Defoe suffering a fatal injury on the gallops , gutsy type .
That’s a crying shame. It’s never nice anyway, but always ran his race.
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15 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
After 4 races if you read the post, the 3.15 was the 5th
DOH!! ?
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Hi Billy , I had Mohaather in the 3.15.
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1.10 Gd: Nkosikazi
1.45 Gd: Oleg
2.15 Gd: Mambo Nights
2.45 Gd: Sardinia Sunset
3.15 Gd: Mohaather
3.45 Gd: Spright
4.20 Gd: Mountain Brave -
9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Well, Stradivarious did win but not as good as Ascot. I had a good run for my money though. Well done to Stradivarious, I do hope that the owners and trainers will put up up more competition for the horse in the future, if it is kept in training.
He did very well I thought with being boxed in like that. Dettori would have been worried at one point .
He’s going for the Arc , just been confirmed by Gosden
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1.10 Gd: Tomorrows Dream
1.45 Gd: Fifth Position
2.15 Gd: Battleground
2.45 Gd: Safe Voyage
3.15 Gd: Stradivarius
3.45 Gd: Count D’ Orsay
4.20 Gd: Majd Al Arab
4.55 Gd: Tulip Fields -
2 hours ago, Trotter said:
I mentioned above that I used to think up stats to keep when I was concentrating on the all weather and one of them was CD winners at Southwell. Being the only Fibresand track I assumed that CD winners would be pretty good for betting on !
So I kept stats of how many runners at each meeting were C winners, CD winners or neither...... and of the number of winners in each of those categories
And I basically found that it made little difference to the winner % whether the horse had won over C or CD before
I didn't keep P/L records but it would be logical to think that CD winners at Southwell are overbet
Trouble is that it's difficult to avoid that CD after horse's name if you have an 8 runner handicap and one of them has won over CD and seven haven't !........ it's always tempting to back horses to do again what they've done before
CD just jumps out at you doesn’t it, but if I’m being honest I’m more interested in distance winners . Like Billy said CD might come into play on some courses, but overall it can be misleading unless the horse in question has got a very prolific record at the track , but then there wouldn’t be much value maybe, but value means different things to different people. Might tweak and change a few things for Goodwood, but still be using the points system. Not one for betting on every race unless it’s Cheltenham, so need to narrow it down.
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From a few years ago, not sure if it’s been updated anywhere else, but this makes interesting read. It backs up MClarkes views on CD winners. Jiggle your points system around to suit. Also mentions moving away from sprints. I’m never that confident of a selection in a sprint as you don’t always get the time to come back from a poor break, being hampered etc. Prefer longer distance on the flats .
https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/analysing-course-and-distance-winners/
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25 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
Not trying to pee on your parade guys but
Points are awarded for each of the runners' previous TWO OUTINGS OF THE CURRENT SEASON ONLY:- 1st 5 points , 2nd 3 points, 3rd 2 points, 4th 1 point , D (disqualified from 1st place) 5 points, Course & Distance (C&D) C&D 3 points , C.D 3 points , D 2 points, C 1 point .13pts...None
12pts...Asc 3.40 Isabella Giles @ 8/1 B365
11pts..1.55 Mountain Peak @ 9/2 ... 4th & Curr 2.55 Buckhurst @ 8/1 B365
The original system was to back the top rated horse for 1 bet a day or split stakes and back all top rated if more than 1
so todays bet would be Isabelle Giles in the 3.40 at AscotAlways thought you could apply it to most races and it would give you a pick for that race
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1 hour ago, Trotter said:
Bit of chatter yesterday in the General Racing Chat thread about the old Fineform System and how it might be teaked to negate the obvious difficulties with it
Basically the system involves awarding points based on last two form figures, C, D and CD wins, The glaring omissions being that it takes no account of Class or Going
So I've loked at todays handicaps at York and Ascot and noted races with a clear top rated horse (no joint tops) and then looked to see if they should act on the going and have either won in todays Class or placed in a higher class
These are the selections .......(prices bet365)
Ascot
1.20 - Seen The Lyte 5/1
4.15 - Tiger Crsade 13/8
4.50 - Strait of Hormuz 9/2York
2.10 - Right Action 14/1
3.55 - Mister Lambreys 3/1
4.30 - Global Spirit 13/2Let's see how they get on !
One problem I encounted was my Class twaek because I feel you should include lightly raced horses that have won in the class below but might be on the upgrade. Might have to re-formulate this
The consideration about Going is a bit subjective because you're using judgement as to whether the horse should act on it if the evidence is sparse but there we go. It's obviously not ideal to have subjective criteria in a system ........
If the above produces some winners I might stick with this for a few days, maybe with tweaks !
I’ve done some for fun but had no cash on them. Not been that strict as I’m net betting on it . Basically whoever is top rated and can go on the going they go in. Nothing below class 4.
Ascot
12.45 Molinari 12/1 , 2nd
1.20 Seen The Lyte 4/1, 5th
1.55 Mountain Peak 9/2 4th
2.30 Country 2/1
3.05 Love and Thunder 10/1
4.15 Campari 3/1
4.50 Repaupo 14/1
York
1.00 Zezenia 9/4 3rd
1.35 Black Caspian 11/2 4th
2.10 Right Action 12/1
2.45 Wentworth Falls 7/1
3.55 Monsieur Lambrays 10/3
4.30 Global Spirit 5/1
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
The only confusion I have with your reply is the reference to Time Form ratings. These are surely very different to Fineform Ratings. Incidentally since you look on the ATR website you can get a pretty good idea of the 3 top rated Time Form ratings for free, if you are interested, just by looking at the the Time Form selections and the star ratings. You won't see the squiggles or p's etc though. It looks to me from what Trotter has said that these should be more reliable. However, you should do what you feel is best
Sorry mate, meant to say Fine Form ratings.
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Yeah it was a joy to watch. Frankie pulling his goggles down and looking back at Japan struggling, then off they go.
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2 hours ago, Trotter said:
I have looked at the Fineform System ..... it's quite handy if you just want to pick selections in lots of races. I think I posted daily selections on here at one time based on the points system
But as Chris said earlier the obvious problem is that it takes no account of class and going
You could get the absurdity of a horse that had previously won a 12 furlong seller at Ascot and class 6 handicap at Brighton on it's last two runs and would be top pick for today's King George at 1000/1
So maybe a couple of refinements .......
Do the ratings and get your top rated selections then only pick them if they have won in today's class or placed in a higher class and the going is not a negative for them
You could also be more selective as to which races you include ....... maybe just handicaps and pattern races and leave out races where you have lots of runners with no or little form in the book
any other ideas for adding a bit of nuance to the basic points system ?
This is what I do. I do the ratings then head over to ATR and look at the race cards where it tells you whether they have won on going or in that class. I now avoid class 5&6 as I don’t think you can trust the horses to produce consistent form. It also narrows down races which is good imo. It’s a cracking system for giving you the basics, and horse racing is still based on the basics. I rated 6 races at York today and 3 won, so 50% strike rate with Fine Form ratings. I just picked the wrong ones to bet on. What I’ve found with Fine Form ratings since I’ve been looking into it , is that big odds run well, so definitely don’t be put off by price.
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24 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
It occurs to me that it is more difficult to win a double than a single, hence, I would have thought that it may be better to put your more fancied horses in the double. However, since sod's law often prevails as in the case of your 8/1 shot winning, it ,may be prudent to back all your selections in singles as well, even if this means at perhaps reduced stakes so as to maximise your ability to come out unscathed should one of them win. Just a thought.
It would be tough to bet every race, I reckon that if I could do so I would just back PL tips as they show a healthy profit. I just don't know how the negative cash flows would sometimes grow before the profits just ate them up.
I bet a certain amount a week and only on a Saturday providing there aren’t any big festivals in the week. Just divided my betting money by numbers of races that qualified at York today. Would have showed around £70 profit today which has annoyed me. I’m thinking I will now lower my stakes so I can fit every race in at whatever meeting I pick out on a Saturday . Saves me debating on what horses to choose and leave out.
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5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Very interesting' I seem to remember Fineform from years and years ago. You must be kicking yourself for not getting involved in the first three races. I believe that you said in your previous post that you were looking for 4 of the top rated and then backing 2 singles and a double. I presume that you would have been selecting the two that you thought would have the best chance of winning.
I, of course wish you the best of luck in your quest.
I must confess that I cannot get to grips with ratings systems that seem to proliferate the racing world these days. I remember one PL member who seemed to be able to make contrasts between All weather form rating and Turf form ratings. This seemed quite interesting to me.
Anyway, with my limited knowledge on this topic I feel it is quite appropriate to quote from a treasured book that I have by Patrick Kilgallon "How to win at Handicap Racing" actually published by Raceform Ltd in 1990. What he was basically saying was that if you blindly followed the top two of any private handicap system you would be successful 30% of the time. If you want to improve the rate further by taking into account other factors such a weight, distance, current form etc. then you might increase that success rate to around 40% (forgive me for not giving the exact quote as I don't want to breach copyright).
Anyway, the point I am trying to make is that the 8/1 chance that you identified looked like a snip to bet on (however, as always I put the emphasis on money management, especially where staking is concerned).
I am pretty sure that others in Punters Lounge may give some good advice on how to bet using ratings ,top or otherwise .
It’s one of them isn’t it. How many times do us punters kick ourselves. I did put the one in a double with Elarqam, but Elarqam was very disappointing today. The 8/1 I thought had too much to prove in my eyes, so never went with it. I pick out the two horses I really fancy , then will put the other selection(s) in a double. Although quite dated now, Timeform still seems to hold its own. I can’t bet on every race though, so it’s about picking the winners and not the losers.
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The fine form system has picked 2/2 at York so far with one of them an 8/1 winner. I didn’t have it myself as I weren’t confident enough it would handle the up in class, but it won well.
3/3 now
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42 minutes ago, Trotter said:
not in this case - apparently the horse returned a dicky blood sample on Friday so was withdrawn
Fair enough . Why the low numbers overall? Really cannot see the point in 3-4 horse races.
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Just now, Trotter said:
Anthony van Dyke is a non runner in the King George ...... leaves a field of 3
very disappointing
Is that because of the prize money or because trainers don’t think they can beat enable
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Racing Chat - Thursday July 30th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Small profit on the day. Made a balls up picking Al Aasy as the ground went against him. Should had known it was going to get quicker . Thought Nazeef stayed on well, so there’s hope for him at the distance. Try again tomorrow.