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Villa Chris

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Posts posted by Villa Chris

    Does a horse going up in rating but staying in the same class matter?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Trotter said:

    I guess the idea behind the above 'system' is that running around tight tracks where much of the race is round a bend slows the field down .......... and that it's easier to carry weight if you're not going as fast

    think of yourself with a suitcase ....... you can walk a long away carrying a suitcase but it gets more difficult if you start jogging or running

    But then the fact that they take Plumpton out sort of negates the whole thing because that's one of the tightest tracks around.

     

     

     I selected a horse the other week that was carrying top weight and it was running on a tight track. I selected it not because of that, but I just happened to remember this top weight system. It won at 11/2. As you say trotter there’s logic behind it. 

    Does a horse going up in rating but staying in the same class matter?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Also regarding weight. I found this the other month . Returns a nice profit. Not something I use. 
     

     

    Topweights System

     

    A profitable system which involves betting to win on topweights in all NH handicap races run over a trip of less than 3 miles on a tight track (for a list of tight tracks please refer to the NH Track Matrix).

    Qualifying weights include penalties but not riders' claims.

    Joint topweights - no bet.

     

    Results to £100 win level stakes:

    163 Bets

    Profit £5,922

    To 5 point win bets: Profit +296.10 pts

     

    NB. By removing both Plumpton and Wetherby from the qualifying tracks, the profit was increased to £7,322 from a total of 145 bets - see Steve's Blog dated 8 April 2008.

    Does a horse going up in rating but staying in the same class matter?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Also not to say an older horse can’t defy a career high mark. If it’s good enough it’s good enough it’s as simple as that. The stats are there and we have to decide what’s important. For example Ballyoptic is on a career high mark today. He’s 10 years old. Had a cracking year last year. I think he still retains plenty of class in this race to defy a career high mark. 

    Does a horse going up in rating but staying in the same class matter?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Do you have any data to support this ?

    No, just my opinion and what I look at. Never look at the weight anymore apart from if the trends in the big handicaps say for example 15/18 winners carried 11.3 or less.  A horses mark imo is a more productive way to look at things especially older horses. It’s took me a few years to get the hang of all the information that’s provided to us punters, but I can confidently look at a race card now and rule out horses. Obviously it doesn’t mean I can look at a race card and pick the winner, because that’s harder to predict. I tend not to watch previous races either. Just look at the stats provided online and read write ups of that previous races. 

    Racing Chat - Sunday Oct 4th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    3.30 Kelso 

    Cant split the pair so had a small nibble on both. 
     

    Mcgroarty 13/2 Lost

    Nuts We’ll 15/2 Won

     

    7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    1.50 Longchamp 

    Fev Rover 11/4 Lost

    Tipperary 2.38

    Stamp Your Feet 11/4 lost

    Would have showed 12 points profit but rule 4 applied to the winning race, so broke even. 

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