Villa Chris
-
Posts
2,101 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
44
Posts posted by Villa Chris
-
-
2.15 Cheltenham, Simply The Betts 9/2
2.15 Cheltenham, Siruh Du Lac 12/1 ew
2.50 Cheltenham, On The Blind Side 5/1
3.25 Cheltenham, Kepagge 6/1
Double 17/1 Cheltenham
Siruh Du Lac has a lot going for him. I expect On The Blind Side to run a big race even though he’s known as a chaser now. Couldn’t ignore him at that price. Kepagge is open to more progress and will appreciate the rain.
Edited post because Tea Clipper non runner. Single bet added with simply the Betts . It’s also effected my ew play with On The Blindside who’s now a straight win bet .
-
5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Interesting stats in this race for the last 7 years includes :-
There have been 60 runners that have carried more than 11 stone and only 1 has won. This reduces the field from 17 to 8.
There have been 48 runners whose last run was over 35 days ago and only 2 won. This reduces the field to 5.
There have been 75 runners that have not won over the course or distance before and only 3 have won.
This leaves just the 1 horse, COOLE CODY, currently available at 20/1.
By far his highest hurdle RPR was at Cheltenham. Also recorded joint highest RPR over fences at Cheltenham last month. Bit inexperienced over fences, mind.
-
I noticed Magic Saints RPRs dipped significantly at Cheltenham which put me off. I like Fanion D’ Estruval who’s got good form in the book and also scored two high RPRs on his only uk runs. Age is a concern though, and the same with Beat The Judge as 5 year olds don’t do well in this. I’m not taken with On The Slopes. Can see why he’s popular but I think it will find one or two too good. Very tricky race.
-
8 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
@ 9/2 I wouldn't touch it with stolen money
It’s about getting on early I suppose.
-
Decided to leave the race alone. Fanion D’ Estruval came out on top when I went through the card, but that took into account some of his french runs and they just ain’t reliable, although he’s scored two good RPRs in his only uk runs. 5 year olds have a bad record in this also. Can see one of the outsiders winning this. Not much else interests me tomorrow so I’ll wait until Saturday.
-
I need to start a bank for my selections. My new strategy at the moment is based around prize money among one or two other things, but it’s a prize money system. It’s not new and it’s probably been done to death over the years. Started two months ago with it and I’ve made profit for the first two months. This month I’m slightly down, but I’m positive it can be profitable. It’s simple and I enjoy it at the moment.
-
5 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:
Won a handicap on the flat off 68 as a 3 year old. Touched 125/1 so hopefully someone somewhere had a tenner on!
Or even a quid.
-
Noticed a 100/1 winner today and the runner up was 50/1 at Sedgefield
-
Siruh Du Lac is my ew bet for this race. Simply The Betts is the class act but could get pegged back carrying top weight.
-
3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Of course I do. I am a member of Napchecker which gives me access to the data on all the tipsters. I know that you like to look at data over 5 years plus but it would seem that I only have access to data for 360 days. RP ratings comes 17th in the table for just tips and 3rd in the table for its naps. The Mail (Robin Goodfellow seems to be the best for tips and only one place behind the RP ratings in the naps table. This is using the Betfair SP price criteria. I think it too onerous to choose the 9am BOG prices and as you know I hate using SP criteria for anything. Hope this helps
Many thanks for reminding me, I should make greater use of these statistics in the future
Used to follow Robin Goodfellow a lot. I still like to look at his tips/naps as I think he’s pretty decent.
-
1.55, Bangor( money back if 2nd or 3rd) Acting Lass 17/2
3.33 , Bangor , Ballymoy 9/2
two singles and the double
-
2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:
Master Tommytucker is very capable but just always makes one massive error, as shown by all the F's in his form! Made another one at Newton Abbott but managed to stay upright. I'd very much favour him with a clear round though, no bet for me but interesting as you say.
I’ve always thought if he stays on his feet he’d be hard to beat. Wasn’t impressed with his run the other week though. There’s a good chaser in there somewhere , but he’s far too unreliable for me.
-
Was impressed with Al Dancers last run. He just seems a better horse this year and can handle Cheltenham. I went through the card last night and Simply The Bets was the stand out horse in terms of how I pick my selections.
-
There are a few others on here that can offer better advice than myself. All I’ll say is that there’s no golden egg betting on the horses . I’ve used a few different methods over the years , and I think you kind of have to learn the hard way. As the saying goes you need to learn how to lose money before you learn how to win it. One bit of advice I’ll give you, and that’s try and have fun with it and try out new ways of picking your selections. Put on small stakes or no money at all until you’re confident you are on to a good system of placing your bets. Try and dig a bit deeper than what you see on a Racecard. It can be overwhelming, it was for me anyway, but if you put the work in your selections will improve. As I said there’s much better advice on here rather than me giving it you.
-
I see the logic in what you are doing , but the selections will probably be over bet because of the information showing on the site and the statistics you are using.ATR cards give you good information and many say it’s a better card set up than RP. I can’t get out of the habit of using RP cards though . Good luck with it anyway .
-
showing a small profit on £1 stakes
-
Talking of naps. Once I’ve done my selections I usually look at RP and ATR to see what their pick is. RPs Spotlight nap tomorrow is Rowland Ward 7/1 which is one of my selections. Not sure how profitable Spotlight naps are in all honesty.
-
4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
I couldn't see that you included in the Naps today. Aren't you playing?
I don’t bother with it mainly down to laziness. I put the horse up as my sole bet today in today’s racing chat. I started doing the naps competition, and started off well, but like the £20 challenge I couldn’t be bothered to carry it on. Tbf I don’t like to Nap my selections.
-
4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
I used to look to the high class races for my Trixie bets, however, I soon became disappointed when my so called good things ran like donkeys. I have now become more open minded and will look at any class of race as long as it is an open race and has decent forecast prices. I just skip the races with short priced favourites, usually beneath 2/1. I would prefer prices of 7/2 plus as pointed out in "How To Win at Handicap Racing" by Patrick Kilgallon (1990) ISBN 0900611 51 0 Published by Raceform. He points out that even if one has a 30% strike rate and obtains odd of 7/2 then you will make a profit of at least 35% whereas if you accept odds of 6/4 you will make a loss of 25%. This is a very good read if you can get hold of a copy. He explains all about handicap racing.
Bad luck with Younevercall in the 2.48 at Kempton btw, beaten a nose! I was on it too ?
The winners have to pay for the losers don’t they . Mistake at second last cost him the race. Very good run overall after so long off. Frustrating nonetheless.
-
1.45 Huntington, Rowland Ward 7/1
Beat Thyme White at the back end of last year with that horse going on to show strong form after and now rated 141. It also got badly hampered when travelling well in a grade 2 earlier this year . Nice price for a horse that has the potential to be better than this mark of 129.
2.07 Hereford , Garde La Victoire 4/1
Old boy who drops down in grade and has ran well in much stronger races than this earlier on in the year. Has ran well fresh in the past .
Two singles and the double
-
3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
That's good ....I'm the same I find it enjoyable and quite therapeutic analysing racing...even if I take an hour to rate 5 races and find nothing I just shrug it off and try again another day .....I just find it relaxing tbh
Does the missus head in sometimes , but there’s worse things to be studying ?
-
I suppose it’s all about where we are as punters, too. If I’m being honest I don’t really search for value that much and I suppose I don’t know what true value is as I don’t have a ratings system set up like Rich and Thor. I have a certain method of getting my selections which is number based, but one day I’d like to be able to have my own proper ratings as I’d enjoy doing it. Just doing my selections now with notepad, and pen I find really relaxing. I’m really enjoying my betting at moment and the losses are far easier to take.
-
We all have different opinions on what value is, but in terms of narrowing things down I only bet on grade3/group3 to class 3 races. Infact if there’s plenty of class 2, listed, grade 3 action on, I skip class 3. Tomorrow there is no class 2 etc so will bet on a couple of class 3s. I also tend to skip novice hurdle/chases, although may take part if I see a good opening for a bet. I don’t bother with veteran chases either.
Regarding odds, I might bet on a short priced favourite if it’s my only bet of the day or I only have a couple of selections. Don’t like to go below 11/8 , 6/4 though, and even then it’s not often I’ll go that short as only have a set amount I’ll bet on a race.
-
21 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Kempton 2.48, Younevercall 4/1
Been off the track for a bit but should have too much for these if fit and ready. Likes it at Kempton as well.
Beaten by a nose. Mistake second last cost him the win.
Trainer excuses
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by Villa Chris
Gordon Elliot being brutally honest today. Couldn’t give a reason why Tiger Roll didn’t perform and said his best days are maybe behind him now.