Rolemat

I was waiting to put this on Billy's chat thread for Monday but thought it was perhaps worthy of a bit of discussion given the "Altior" debacle this past week.Without going into too much detail the Altior situation clarified that the use of inside info rules are an absolute joke and at the very least a "Grey area". Ask the BHA about what constitutes inside info and all you will get is a referal to the rules etc.
Absolutely unclear and by definition not fit for purpose,they knew there was an issue with regards to Altior because the trainer informed them he suspected someone had leaked information that he was unhappy with the horse.The effect of this was that the horse drifted and his stablemate was heavily backed for the race he was entered in.
So basically the BHA could not give a monkeys about punters,they did nothing to alert the "General Public" who ultimately pay their wages including their "Integrity department".
So I get "Information" on a daily basis and explained this to the BHA and asked for clarification to avoid breaching their rules,all they said was "See our rules".
 I have held back giving too much "Info" away to avoid getting anyone into hot water either with their employers or the Governing body aka BHA.
At 5.20 tommorow a horse will run at Wolverhampton named  DARING GUEST and it will run very well according to rumour,given a trouble free passage should go very close to winning just because his trainer has him in top shape and his jockey will be avoiding traffic.
Add to that that there will be some money to back this up and you will not get the 14/1 at the OFF that is available now,no control over that obviously but an ew bet with some going 4 places is a bet to nothing if my "Inside Info" is accurate.

No computer or statistics here,purely the opinion of a rider who has ridden the horse and a rare opinion at that.Nothing better than a P before a horses last run to get a price and a favourite being 3 from 3 at even money making the market.Up to the individual obviously whether to lay the favourite or back this horse at 9/2 before the off.If my information is correct he will be around 3/1 or less,should not see another horse is what I have been told,schooled brilliant and worked very well.
Only once in a blue moon has this colleague ever said he was so confident that barring a fall the horse should win,Whatswrongwithyou goes in the 1.05 at Chepstow and at worst he says we can have a free bet by backing at 9/2 to lay as he predicts a lump of money going on.

I think the point Roger was making Billy was the ew angle as opposed to what has already been discussed e.g had the horse only placed he would have shown a loss on total stake,had he backed it solely to win with the total stake his profit would obviously increase exponentially.By backing it as he did emphasises the logic of splitting the bet to a percentage win and place although 50/50 is more or less the same as an ew and therefore pointless at the odds? It makes no difference if the object was to prove the ew at odds shorter than break even makes any sense,it does not and cannot ever and nothing can ever change that.
There were three ways to approach that bet e.g Straight up win for £20, 60% win and 40% place or similar percentages split to ensure no loss as long as the horse placed or forget the place part completely and just back £10 to win.Long term either backing the full £20 or £10 to win will increase the profit as long as the WIN element scores as often as the detrators claim their ew below the break even provides a profit.That is what they seriously need to look at and consider,their place element is a permanent loss below the break even threshold,their win element will be massively improved by using the place element in their win bets or by splitting the bet in two parts as a percentage to avoid loss unless of course the horse finishes out of the places.
I would be happy to lay any horse for 4 places in an 8 runner race,6 places up to 10 runners,8 places for any race above 10 at 1/4  or 1/5 the odds if anyone wants to back their selections with me at under 4/1 or 5/1 according to their bookies odds on a race,in fact they could name their own amount of places if they were betting ew and I was solely responsible for the place part.

In respect of the top races and will be turned upside down whichever one wins and the manner of victory or even defeat.I am firmly in the Altior camp and find it hard to believe the Official ratings put Cyrname ahead by even a mesely 1lb.Not fooled by the Nicky Henderson downbeat reports this week,I backed Altior for the King George 2 years ago and again last year.Tomorrow might see those bets scuppered if he is beaten too far,IF being the operative word.
It is not a race to punt for me at least,much more hangs in the balance than this race for the whole sport and never mind the connections.If Altior wins this then you can almost guarantee he will be a shade of odds on for the King George and therein lies the chance to make a profit for those not already on rather than back him at cramped odds tomorrow.In short,if he gets well beaten tomorrow or appears not to stay,he will not line up in the King George.So rather than back him to beat Cyrname the sensible thing is to back him for the KG and then have the option of laying him for a profit.
I already have the options but I have not laid a single penny such is my faith and opinion that he will get the trip tomorrow and on Boxing Day,it could all be misplaced but it is what the game is all about.The bigger question is what do we as punters think of the so called experts opinions as to ratings before the race i.e YOUR opinon,do you agree or otherwise?
Interested to know how others view or feel about the ratings,especially if related to bets placed or pending the outcome?
 

You may well be right yossa but I view the Cyrname form as a cynic,certainly not worthy of the rating yet.Good luck whatever the outcome.

Just a quick precise of a bit of advice that came my way earlier from a friend.He said that Fearless Warrior has looked much more relaxed in the past couple of bits of work and the stable is hopeful that he has learned since his wind op that there is no difficulty going beyond where he used to struggle e.g now finishing off work better than previous.
They think if he translates this work to the race he will go very close and can beat the favourite,hope this will be useful.

Just a quick precise of a bit of advice that came my way earlier from a friend.He said that Fearless Warrior has looked much more relaxed in the past couple of bits of work and the stable is hopeful that he has learned since his wind op that there is no difficulty going beyond where he used to struggle e.g now finishing off work better than previous.
They think if he translates this work to the race he will go very close and can beat the favourite,hope this will be useful.

A fascinating entry for an American flat bred former K.Abdulla horse caught my eye for tomorrow.Trained by one of the "shrewdest" and oldest trainers in the world he has never jumped a fence in public and is still a maiden over timber (the horse that is),he goes straight into a handicap.
Torrid runs in the 1pm at Sedgefield and if he can put in a clear round could well win this.13/2 general.

The Novice Chase at 1.50 Warwick could prove to be a useful race for future pointers if past results are considered.Tomorrow sees another decent recruit from timber make his debut over the larger obstacles and on the face of it looks to have a straightforward task,that is Thomas Darby.He brings Cheltenham Festival form into this race and is likely to go off around 4/9 ish.
However this may be the day to take him on with Maire Banrigh who has already had a run over fences and although this is much tougher she won very easily and jumped well in the main,that could be a great asset as this track suits a front runner who can get into a rythmn,she could force the fav into making errors.
 
Maire Banrigh £20 win at 2/1 with best odds gtd.

Been a few tears and years since this dog and his owner died but the name lives on through this horse.Pulled up last time out but all in place for a big run here in the 1255 at Newbury.
ZANZA at 5/1 ew for at very least the frame.

Great shout today Billy,Sir Valentine could be a useful recruit,surprised (pleasantly) at the SP.One I debated mentioning last night is Three Little Birds,she was actually not as bad last time as the form looks.She is expected to run really well in the 7.25 at Chelmsford and despite the bigger prices having gone (some here) the confidence still seems positive and I don't expect the 7/1 to last,a good ew bet.

Ma Mate Bob made an encouraging seasonal debut on his first start over fences,that run and first experience of the larger obstacles should stand him in good stead in the 3.30 Sedgefield.
 
£20 win at 7/2

Been a few tears and years since this dog and his owner died but the name lives on through this horse.Pulled up last time out but all in place for a big run here in the 1255 at Newbury.
ZANZA at 5/1 ew for at very least the frame.

Been a few tears and years since this dog and his owner died but the name lives on through this horse.Pulled up last time out but all in place for a big run here in the 1255 at Newbury.
ZANZA at 5/1 ew for at very least the frame.

Not often I would recommend one as short as 5/2 and have held back in case of any negatives,have not heard any regarding Wilkommen who runs in the 7.25 at Woves.A real family horse this and been given plenty of time to overcome minor setbacks,rider knows him better than anyone.Reported to be fighting fit and the 7lb claim thought to be more valuable here rather than others he could have ridden.

Paul Nicholls could hardly be described as a regular at Plumpton so it seems significant that he has sent three horses,all with seemingly live chances and all three could in future be much better that the relatively low grade they contest here.
1.10 Calva D'auge 9/4
1.40 Get The Appeal 5/4
2.40 Dan McGrue 4/1
A win patent and treble would return a decent profit if they oblige.

Paul Nicholls could hardly be described as a regular at Plumpton so it seems significant that he has sent three horses,all with seemingly live chances and all three could in future be much better that the relatively low grade they contest here.
1.10 Calva D'auge 9/4
1.40 Get The Appeal 5/4
2.40 Dan McGrue 4/1
A win patent and treble would return a decent profit if they oblige.

Just a quick mention for Miss Blondell in the 5pm at Kempton,my friend says he expects a big run with the headgear taken off and even though the rider cannot claim he says a place at least is what he expects.6/1 currently so an each way price.

Still not got the hang of things here yet and was looking for the thread to do with the BC,so apologies if on the wrong part of the Forum.I had posted my 2 European fancies but one is a non runner and the default selection now replaced it.A difficult track for European runners but hopefully the two horses chosen can overcome difficult circumstances,the upside is they would be shorter if US trained,the 3rd of my fancies is.
2012 hrs A'Ali has a poor draw but ridden by Dettori,he knows the track and can overcome this.
2052 hrs Sure this horse is a big improver,Structor.
2212 hrs Albigna,could win this easily though nothing is easy here,given a strong pace,and there should be,she could be far too good late on.

With Billy Hills on this,i thought that went over 10 years ago but do remember waiting for the results.Some pensive minutes waiting for it to update.Racing Post have replaced it with a ten minute wait for their instant results,some things never really change but thank the lord we no longer have to wait for the like,saying that,the tension did make even the last leg of a placepot an experience hard to replicate now.

The rider of my first tip here (won) has only two rides tomorrow and both have excellent chances and at two different tracks with little time between the races.
Fiery Breath goes 1605 hrs Ling at 15/2 with several going 4 places at 1/5
Pretty In Grey goes 1740 hrs Kemp at 6/1.............no room for error in getting from Ling to Kemp..........but that is taken care of.......an ew and ew double is how I will play with 100+ % from the saddle.Good luck if you have a dabble.

The rider of my first tip here (won) has only two rides tomorrow and both have excellent chances and at two different tracks with little time between the races.
Fiery Breath goes 1605 hrs Ling at 15/2 with several going 4 places at 1/5
Pretty In Grey goes 1740 hrs Kemp at 6/1.............no room for error in getting from Ling to Kemp..........but that is taken care of.......an ew and ew double is how I will play with 100+ % from the saddle.Good luck if you have a dabble.

The rider of my first tip here (won) has only two rides tomorrow and both have excellent chances and at two different tracks with little time between the races.
Fiery Breath goes 1605 hrs Ling at 15/2 with several going 4 places at 1/5
Pretty In Grey goes 1740 hrs Kemp at 6/1.............no room for error in getting from Ling to Kemp..........but that is taken care of.......an ew and ew double is how I will play with 100+ % from the saddle.Good luck if you have a dabble.

The rider of my first tip here (won) has only two rides tomorrow and both have excellent chances and at two different tracks with little time between the races.
Fiery Breath goes 1605 hrs Ling at 15/2 with several going 4 places at 1/5
Pretty In Grey goes 1740 hrs Kemp at 6/1.............no room for error in getting from Ling to Kemp..........but that is taken care of.......an ew and ew double is how I will play with 100+ % from the saddle.Good luck if you have a dabble.

Hi,BBBC,sorry for the late reply.In answer to your question re-contact,yes I do have a contact who provides me with up to date advice across the industry e.g his opinion,opinion of colleagues (work riders) and various parties who like to have a good bet etc.Hope you and a good few had a little touch on todays two.