AussieDex

In April there were 15 bets. Stakes were 25.5 and returns were 46.8 which meant the profit was 21.3pts

Fair play to derby they tried hard but they never really looked like scoring and it was a pretty comfortable watch unlike the Peterborough game! Two double figures price winners in the same season! I doubt I will be repeating that anytime soon

The run will end at some point I am sure, but another fantastic day on Saturday which means the profit currently stands at 147.24 points for the season which quite frankly is staggering really. This week we have an FA Trophy double header with the Step 2 sides coming in on Tuesday and the Step 1 sides coming in on Saturday. I am taking 4 possible upsets on Tuesday night in the Trophy and 1 bet in the 4 games taking place in the National League.
Solihull v Halifax
Halifax were struggle for goals and then they played Barnet and Weymouth and scored 5 past both of them. They added to that tally of 10 by adding 3 last Tuesday against Aldershot and now they are scoring goals they can be backed to beat an under performing Solihull. Granted they did beat Hartlepool in their 1st game after their FA Cup defeat, but they weren't great and their rivals did have a man sent off to help. They then lost 4-1 to Sutton and were poor on the TV on Saturday to Bromley. I would have Halifax around the 2/1 mark
Blyth Spartans v Morpeth
Blyth are looking doomed to relegation already and in a normal season they would already be playing Morpeth in a league game. Now I am taking a chance in backing 4 Step 3 and 4 sides given they haven't played any league games since the start of the 2nd lockdown, but I do think that is factored into the prices of the selections. Morpeth would likely have made the play-offs and they are better than their current league position. Being a local derby they will be bang up for this and Blyth are there for the taking.
Bracknell v Havant & Waterlooville
The Havant manager has already said he will be resting players tonight and that gives a strong Bracknell side for their level a chance to beat Havant tonight. They have only played 5 games, but have won 4 and drawn the other. They had a good win last Tuesday against Salisbury and as I saw they have a chance of winning this with Havant resting players.
Concord Rangers v Truro City (now on Saturday)
This would likely have been a league game if the season had have been completed last season and Truro are looking strong again this time around. Concord are still to play last seasons final and it would be an odd quirk if they got to the final of this year's competition as I can't see it happening before we know this season's finalists. This is a tricky tie for them though. They have only won twice in their last 10 league games and I think Truro have the better side.
Marine v Southport
Happy to back Marine again here as Southport have been really struggling for form. They have only picked up a point in their last 4 games and that was to an Alfreton side who are doing even worse than they have. One win in 8 for Southport and we know Marine are a good side who can beat better teams than Southport from this level. As I mentioned ahead of their game on Saturday they have had the advantage of playing in the FA Cup and being able to train during lockdown.
Halifax 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill
Morpeth 1pt @ 29/10 with Betfair
Bracknell 1pt @ 11/2 with Betfred
Truro 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 and Betfred
Marine 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 & Betfred

A cracking Tuesday with 4 winners out of 5 helped by a late winner from Torquay. Been waiting for the National League fixtures to be priced up which for some reason took until Thursday afternoon. I have just the 3 bets for Saturday, but they are all outsiders (at the time of writing).
Barnet v Wealdstone
Barnet performed with credit against MK Dons in the FA Cup last week, but their awful league form showed up again on Wednesday night when they were thumped 5-2 by Halifax. Prior to that game Halifax had only scored 6 goals in the league! Barnet's defence has been an issue all season and they have conceded 24 in their 10 league games. We know that Wealdstone can score goals against the right opposition and Barnet are clearly the right opposition. They performed with credit against leaders Torquay on Tuesday night, but eventually Torquay got that late winner for us. Barnet's 2 league wins have come against Weymouth and Dagenham who are either side of them in the table. The away side may have only picked up 1 point in their last 4 games, but given they have played 4 of the current top 6 in the table I think 1 point was probably as much as they could have hoped for. There is no way they should be 9/4 to win this and I would have them no bigger than 6/4 myself.
Hartlepool v Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood are definitely better than their league position suggests and they had a nice confidence boosting win against Canvey Island in the FA Cup on Monday night. In my view they have a better side than Hartlepool. the home side have only won one of their last 7 games and that was against bottom side Yeovil. They also were held to a 0-0 draw at Barnet in their next game. Granted on Tuesday night they ended up with 10 men against Solihull, but they were playing a side who had played 120 minutes on Saturday in their first game for a while. They look lacklustre up front at the moment and apart from the 3-1 at Yeovil they have only scored 1 goal in their last 7. There is every chance 1 will be enough for the away side.
Hungerford v Dulwich Hamlet
I mentioned that Dulwich were improving when I put them up to beat Bath a couple of weeks ago and after going a goal down they ran out easy 4-1 winners. They haven't played since so come into this game fresher than their hosts. To be fair to Hungerford they have done amazingly well to be as high in the table as they are and a draw against St Albans and only going down 2-1 to Dartford after being in front were good efforts as well. Tuesday night it came crashing down a bit though as Oxford City beat them 4-1. Given Oxford had played 120 minutes just two days prior you would have thought Hungerford would have done better. I'd still have them as favourites, but I certainly think their is plenty of juice in Dulwich's price.
Wealdstone 2pts @ 9/4 with Bet365
Boreham Wood 2pts @ 19/10 with Bet365
Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfair

Fair to say the 1st Round didn't go anywhere near as well as the 4th Qualifying Round and I was caught out a little by how many upsets there were. Hard to put an exact reason behind that, but I do think no crowds is a factor. The Non-League sides are always going to be up for it, but it was clear that the same couldn't be said of the Football League sides in the 1st Round. I have picked out 6 of the Non-League sides that I think can cause an upset over the weekend as well as putting up a 4 fold. If they all win then I might retire! Tips for now and the previews will follow. Don't forget Bet365 have their acca bonus and early payout if a team goes 2 in front if you want that safety net so I have put top price and Bet365 price if shorter.
Morecambe v Solihull Moors
A slight concern that Solihull have had a Covid enforced break and haven't played since November 11th, but this does look a game they can win to me. They were good in beating Scunthorpe in the previous round and although Morecombe are doing better than they are in League 2 there recent form isn't great. In the league they have only won one of their last 9 games and Solihull will be confident they can cause an upset. 
Peterborough v Chorley
I am taking a bit of a flyer here, but I thought Chorley did superbly well in coming from 2 down to beat Wigan in the last round. I know Wigan had 10 men, but even so it was a hell of an effort. Peterborough lost a couple of games before beating Plymouth last time and that gives a bit of hope. Also I can't imagine this will be high up on the list of targets for them. The lack of home fans I think favoured the Non-League sides in round 1 and that is why we saw so many go through and Chorley do have it in them to cause an upset. I think they are in a bit of a false position in the National League North and I just can't make them as big as 18/1 so its worth a having a crack at that price.
Mansfield v Dagenham & Redbridge
Mansfield have only won once in the league all season and given Dagenham beat Grimsby in the previous round I think they could cause their League 2 hosts some issues here. They haven't played in nearly a couple of weeks and that will have helped them focus on this. They seem to be improving from earlier in the season and on their day the have the players to beat Mansfield.
Bristol Rovers v Darlington
Darlington caused an upset in Round 1 when beating League 1 Swindon and I think they can beat another League 1 side in Rovers. They have only picked up 2 points in their last 6 league games. 2 starts back they lost to Swindon and last time they only got a point at Wigan. Rovers' record against Non-League sides in the FA Cup hasn't exactly been the best in recent years either. Darlington had a couple of good wins in the league before losing to Bradford (Park Avenue) on Tuesday night, but I don't mind that because this is a much bigger game for them. They look over priced to me.
Shrewsbury v Oxford City
I would have preferred it if Shrewsbury hadn't announced their new manager on Friday as players will be looking to impress now, but with no win in 8 in the league they will still find this game tricky. City were superb in beating Northampton in the 1st Round and although their league form has taken a bit of a hit since, they have still been playing very well at times including when losing 3-2 to top of the table Dorking on Tuesday night. If they play as well as they did against Northampton I think they have got a real chance of reaching Round 3.
Barnet v MK Dons
Barnet are really struggling in the league this season and their performance against Burton in the 1st Round sticks out like a sore thumb. It was superb and they fully deserved to win. Sometimes you get teams who do well in the cup despite the fact they aren't anything special in the league and I just wonder if Barnet will be like that this season. MK Dons have only won 3 league games out of 14 this season and again it looks a match where we could see an upset.
Acca
Tranmere v Brackley get the action underway on BBC2 tonight and with Tranmere looking good at the moment I think they will be too strong for their National League North opponents. They have a new manager who has just taken over and he wont want a defeat in this. Kings Lynn scored with what was pretty much their only shot against Port Vale in Round 1 and I think Portsmouth will do a professional job on them. For the 3rd Round running I am trying to get Marine beat, but not being able to play since knocking out Colchester is hardly ideal. Havant are a very strong side as well. Boreham Wood have surprised me by their lack of goals in the league this season, but I can't see Canvey Island keeping them out. Canvey were very fortunate to knock out Banbury in the previous round and I would be disappointed if Wood blew this great opportunity to get to the 3rd Round
Solihull 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
Chorley 1pt @ 18/1 with Betfair (14s with Bet365)
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365
Darlington 1pt @ 17/2 with Betfair (15/2 with Bet365)
Oxford City 1pt @ 9/1 with Betfair (8/1 with Bet365)
Barnet 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365
Tranmere/Portsmouth/Havant & Waterlooville/Boreham Wood 2pts @ 3.1/1 with Bet365

Granted I was in the kitchen for some of the game putting dinner together, but I didn't see Brackley put the ball in the net. Was a dire watch, but a quality goal saw Tranmere home. What I will say though is it backs up my thinking that the Football League sides find it really tough in an empty stadium so hopefully we can get at least a couple of the 6 over the line.

Apart from the games off because of Covid we have a full fixture list in the 3 National League's on Tuesday night. There looks to be plenty of value around as well as I have 7 bets.
Aldershot v Maidenhead
The two teams who won for us on Saturday go up against each other and I think Maidenhead look a big price. They did well to come from behind against Chesterfield on Saturday and that made it 5 wins on the bounce now. Sam Barratt is the league's top goalscorer having scored 9 goals in 8 games. As I mentioned on Saturday Aldershot are doing well enough themselves, but I just can't make Maidenhead as big as 23/10 as I would have them around the 13/8 mark myself.
Bradford Park Avenue v Southport
Fair play to Bradford for getting a point at Gloucester on Saturday as they took full advantage of a couple of defensive errors in what was a crazy game. Bradford certainly look a very different team from last season as there results suggested, but the bookies haven't paid any attention to that and have priced them up as the outsiders here. That made it 4 games unbeaten now after losing their 1st 2 games of the season. Southport had a very good start to the season although their 3 wins have come against Chorley, Hereford and Blyth and I think Bradford are better than them. Southport were poor on Saturday against Spennymoor and I would make BPA favourites rather than 2/1.
Hereford v Gloucester
Talking about teams who should be favourites Gloucester should be market leaders in this game. At 3-1 on Saturday I thought it was going to be another comfortable afternoon for City, but they gifted a goal to Bradford and the away side took confidence from that. Once Gloucester got it back to 4-4 though they were the better side in what had become dreadful weather and bar a superb save from the keeper they would have won it in injury time. As I keep saying the silly goals that City concede is frustrating, but they have so many goals in the side that most of the time it hasn't mattered. They certainly look so much stronger than Hereford going forward and I would make them around 11/10 to win this not the 17/10 that they are.
Bath v Havant & Waterlooville
Two sides who reached the play-offs last season, but fair to say they are having very different seasons this time around. Bath have been horrendous losing 4 of their 5 games and only managing to beat a Billericay side who lost their 1st 4 games. Havant again look set to be in the promotion pictures and have one of the strongest sides in the division. The only time they have lost was to current league leaders Dartford and they beat a good side in Oxford on Saturday in a dominant 2nd half performance. They really should have too much for Bath and even money looks a big price.
Dulwich Hamlet v Dorking
Dulwich are not doing well this season having picked up just 2 points in their 5 league games. I watched their FA Cup game against Christchurch last month and they didn't look a great side in that match. I just don't see how Dorking don't have too much for their hosts here. They have scored 17 goals in their 6 league games and the only time they haven't won was when they drew a blank against Hungerford. Dulwich have conceded 7 goals in their last 2 league games and I find it hard to see anything other than an away win. They should be odds on shots so the 5/4 looks huge.
Oxford City v Chippenham
I mention above that Havant dominated Oxford in the 2nd half on Saturday, but in the 1st half Oxford were the better side and could have been out of sight. That was two league defeats on the bounce, but as I mentioned on Saturday they showed how good a side they are in their FA Cup win over Northampton. Chippenham have lost 4 of their 6 league games and the only two they have won were against Dulwich and Braintree. That clearly is not saying much and City have been easily the better side of the two so far this season. 6/4 looks a huge price as I would have them odds on.
Tonbridge Angels v Eastbourne
Another baffling price here as Eastbourne should be clear favourites. They haven't lost a league game since the opening day of the season when they lost to Dorking. Since then they have won 4 and drawn 2. Not surprisingly they had a comfortable time of things on Saturday when beating Braintree 4-0. They are clearly a decent side this time around and certainly a better team than Tonbridge. Dorking beat them 4-1 on Saturday and although I wouldn't have Eastbourne at quite the same level as them, they should have too much for the home team.
Maidenhead 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365
Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor
Gloucester City 1pt @ 17/10 with BetVictor
Havant & Waterlooville 3pts @ Evs with Bet365
Dorking 4pts @ 5/4 with Betway
Oxford City 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfred
Eastbourne 2pts @ 17/10 with Betfred

A tiny profit on Tuesday and Wednesday night with a couple of easy wins for Gloucester and Solihull. Back to a full league fixture list on Saturday (unless Covid gets in the way) and I have 5 bets across the 3 divisions.
Altrincham v Aldershot
Altrincham were comfortably beaten by Solihull on Wednesday night and in more bad news for them they suffered more injuries. They already had plenty missing and given they have struggled for goals all season I fancy that Aldershot will probably only need to score 1 to win this. Score 1 is what they did against Notts County last Saturday as they took full advantage of an error to score their only shot on target of the whole game. I wouldn't read too much into that as the tactics were too make things hard for County and try and force them into an error which is what happened. Aldershot have scored in all 6 league games so far and apart from a 4-1 loss to league leaders Torquay they have been performing well. The 29/20 about an away win makes plenty of appeal.
Chesterfield v Maidenhead
After losing their 1st 3 games and conceding 10 goals in the process it looked like it would be a tough season for Maidenhead, but they went and won their next 4 league games. That has put them to 6th in the table and although I think they have had a bit of fortune along the way, the 3-1 over Solihull in their last league game was probably their best performance of the season. Chesterfield on the other hand have have won 2 and lost 4 of their 6 league games and although they have had some tough fixtures they haven't been playing that well. In their last league game they beat current bottom side Yeovil 1-0 and even then I didn't see anything that would make me think they should be odds on to beat a tough Maidenhead side. The 23/10 about an away looks decent value to me.
Blyth Spartans v Hereford
Thanks to Covid issues Hereford have only played 3 league games so far this season and they have had one of each result. October 27th was their last league game when they lost 2-0 to Bradford Park Avenue and they don't seem in a good place at the moment. Granted Blyth conceded 16 goals in their 1st 5 games, but they have looked much improved in their last 2. Saturday they beat Curzon 3-0 and then got a 1-1 draw against Farsley on Tuesday. They come into this game with plenty of confidence and that could be enough to see off a rusty Hereford. I am certainly happy to take a chance on them at 13/5.
Gloucester City v Bradford Park Avenue
I have watched all of Gloucester's games so far this season and it feels like I am not watching my own side given how impressive we have been. I tipped us up at the start of the season to win the league based on the team which looked strong and it has been great to see that they have performed on the pitch. I was concerned about manager's James Rowe lack of experience, but full credit to him as he has got the team playing well and it is clear there is great team spirit in the squad. An impressive 19 goals have been scored and I think the home performances have been especially impressive. The one concern is the lack of a clean sheet and again on Tuesday night they gifted Telford with a goal in the first 2 minutes. They weren't great in the 1st half, but in the 2nd half half City were totally dominant and fully deserved to run out 4-1 victors. As much as BPA are clearly a better side than the one that would have been relegated last season I just don't see how they can stop a rampant City forward line. Bookies still don't seem to have cottoned on to the fact City are one of the best sides in the division and the 10/11 that is available would be much shorter if York or Fylde were hosting BPA. I'm also going to add a bet on the -1 handicap at 23/10 which City have covered in all their home games so far.
Havant & Waterlooville v Oxford City
I know that Northampton were rubbish on Monday night, but that shouldn't take anything away from a superb performance from Oxford. That effort backs up their good form so far this season and although they lost to Hampton in their last league game that certainly doesn't put me off backing them against Havant. Havant are clearly one of the best teams in the division, but I think Oxford have it in them to win this and I would have them around the 2/1 mark and not the 3/1 they currently are.
Aldershot 2pts @ 29/20 with Bet365
Maidenhead 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 13/5 with BetVictor
Gloucester City 3pts @ 10/11 Bet365 
Gloucester City -1 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfair
Oxford City 1pt @ 3/1 with Betfred

Having had one of my best ever days punting on 4th qualifying round day hopefully I can repeat the dose now we reach the 1st Round. I like 7 bets throughout the weekend where plenty of games will be covered via the BBC or BT Sport.
Harrogate V Skelmersdale
The 1st match of the weekend sees the 1st bet in a game live on BT Sport. Skelmersdale were one of the sides I put up in the last round and they duly beat Stafford 4-1. Stafford play in Step 3 and have only picked up 1 point in the league so playing a Harrogate side 3 levels higher and having a decent start in their first season in the Football League. Skelmersdale play at Step 5 of Non-League football and whenever a team from that level reach the 1st Round they always get outclassed. Granted they might have had this game on their minds, but they have lost their 2 league games since the Stafford victory 3-1 and 4-0. As Harrogate have just come from Non-League I can't see them under estimating their opponents and I fully expect them to take it seriously and win the game comfortably. The -2 handicap is now odds on, but I am going to go for the -3 which is 11/4 with Betfair.
Boreham Wood v Southend
It might seem odd putting up a team who are evens to beat a team from a higher level, but when Southend are bottom of League having picked up just 2 points it is easy to see why Boreham Wood are the price they are. They have scored just 5 goals in the league, but one of those was an own goal and another a penalty. I think Boreham Wood are better than their league position suggests and they have conceded just three times in their 5 league games so far. You would think they could keep Southend quiet and that Boreham Wood certainly have the forwards capable of causing Southend no end of problems.
Cheltenham v South Shields
South Shields were another team I put up in the previous round when they caused an upset in beating Halifax. Granted Cheltenham are having a good season in League 2, but I think South Shields could pull off another upset. They have a very good side for their level and are essentially a Step 2 side at Step 3 level. If they play at the top of their game I make their chances of causing an upset better than an 8/1 chance so am happy to take a chance.
Colchester v Marine
Marine caused an upset in the previous round beating Chester, but I struggle to see the Step 4 side doing much against League 2 Colchester. They have won 3 of their 5 league games, but 2 of them came against 2 of the weaker sides in the division and they should be easily outclassed in this. Colchester are in solid form in League 2 this season and I think they can cover the -2 handicap here.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Grimsby
Dagenham are currently bottom of the National League and have really struggled this season. Their only win came against Wealdstone who were poor that evening and Dagenham did enough to deserve the win without looking that great themselves. Grimsby are doing well enough in League 2 and have done well away from home so far this season. They are better than Dagenham and odds against quotes look good value to me.
Hayes & Yeading v Carlisle
Hayes were another side who won for me in the previous round when they caused an upset by beating Wealdstone. This game will be much tougher though and Carlisle are currently in 5th position in League 2 having beaten top of the table Newport on Tuesday night. The fact there are no fans will help the away side as the home fans can't create a hostile atmosphere and attempt to make things tricky for the Football League side. I think Carlisle will win this with ease and they can cover the -1 handicap.
Scunthorpe v Solihull Moors
Another solid National League side taking on a poor side from League 2 in this tie. Scunthorpe were hit with Covid and that means they haven't played for 2 weeks. When they were playing though they only managed to pick up 4 points in 8 games, scoring just 3 goals in the process. I was a bit surprised Solihull lost 3-1 to Maidenhead last Saturday, but prior to that they had only lost one of their 1st 5 games. They should be in the play-off picture this season and given how bad Scunthorpe have been so far this season they could easily cause an upset here. 
Acca
I have put together an 8 fold acca where I think the Football League side will knock out the Non-League. I am putting in Harrogate, Colchester and Carlisle as per the bets above. I am then adding Bradford to win at Tonbridge, Port Vale to beat Kings Lynn, Doncaster to beat FCUM in the live BBC2 game, Oldham to win at Hampton and Blackpool to win at Eastbourne. The acca pays 11.4/1 with Betfair.
Harrogate -3 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfair
Boreham Wood 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
South Shields 1pt @ 8/1 with William Hill
Colchester -2 2pts @ 9/5 with Betfair
Grimsby 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Bet365
Carlisle -1 2pts @ 11/10 with Betfair
Solihull Moors 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Harrogate/Bradford/Port Vale/Colchester/Doncaster/Oldham/Carlisle/Blackpool 1pt acca @ 11.4/1 with Betfair

Tuesday was a mini bump back to earth after the high of Saturday, but an injury time goal against us was always going to happen at some point. More on that in the previews. With Step 3 entering the FA Trophy the focus is on the 3 National League's and I have 5 bets.
Hartlepool v Torquay
The live BT Sport game sees 1st v 4th and Hartlepool are yet to lose so far this season so an interesting game on paper. At the risk of upsetting Hartlepool fans again (for some reason they got upset with me saying Notts County are the biggest team in Non-League last week), I am not sure Hartlepool are quite as good as their form suggests. For a start they have had a pretty kind fixture list so far and they haven't always played that well. I put them up to beat Maidenhead the other week and they won 4-0, but Maidenhead should have been 4 up by half time and they managed to get away with it. On Tuesday night they were good in the 1st half against Altrincham, but were poor in the 2nd half and Alty missed a penalty. Speaking of late goals, Torquay have been the masters in that so far this season with 3 of their 5 victories on the back of goals in injury time. They also scored a 90th minute goal in their 4-1 win against Aldershot on Tuesday night. They are looking capable of a top 7 finish this season and I think there is more to come from them. They look over priced at 13/5 with Betway and I would have them no bigger than 7/4 myself.
Wrexham v Sutton
Wrexham don't seem to have solved any of their issues of last season. They still can't score goals and they aren't looking great at the back either. They were fortunate to beat Boreham Wood on day 1 and their other win was against Yeovil who are yet to win. Although Barnet welcomed some of the players who were missing against Leiston it still wasn't a great effort to draw in 0-0 where yet again they looked poor up front. Sutton have had a great start to the season winning 4 of their 1st 5 games. Now they have only beaten Aldershot, Maidenhead, Weymouth and Yeovil, but Wrexham don't look any stronger than that lot and they might well only need the 1 goal to win. Betway are biggest again at 14/5, but again I would be happy to take around 15/8.
Gloucester City v Chester
Gloucester have had a couple of weeks off since beating Blyth 6-1 as Covid in the Gateshead camp forced their game off last Saturday. In that time Chester limply went out of the FA Cup to Marine although they did bounce back from that when beating Curzon on Tuesday night. For me though Gloucester look a better team than Chester this season and I think the 6/4 is a good price as they should be clear favourites in my view. No doubt Asante will be keen to score against his former club as well.
Southport v Boston
Boston should have hammered Guiesley on Tuesday night. I watched the game and it was about as one sided as an encounter as you will ever see. Poor finishing and superb goalkeeping meant the only goal was a free kick and then with their only shot on target of the game the away side scored in the 95th minute. Boston played some great stuff though and they looked possible title contenders to me. Southport have picked up 7 points from their 3 games so far, but this is easily their toughest test yet and I think Boston will prove too strong.
Oxford City v Hampton & Richmond
The home side have been very profitable for us in the last couple of weeks with their wins over Tonbridge and Weymouth in the FA Cup. Granted Hampton's only point in the league so far was a decent one against Dartford, but Oxford are starting the season very strongly and evens is just on the right side of value for me.
Torquay 2pts @ 13/5 with Betway
Sutton 2pts @ 14/5 with Betway
Gloucester 2pts @ 6/4 with Bet365
Boston 2pts @ 8/5 with Betfred
Oxford City 2pts @ Evs with Bet365

The FA Cup is the main focus this weekend and I have 6 possible upsets including a 4/1 NAP. I have an FA Cup 4 fold as well as 1 bet in the National League North.   Maldon & Tiptree v Haringey Maldon were the big story last season in the FA Cup after winning at Leyton Orient in the 1st Round and I reckon they can reach that stage again this season. It was no surprise that they lost some of their best players, including their strike force, after the season they had, but they look to have a strong team again based on the start to the season they have had. They beat National League South side Braintree in the previous round and hosting Harringay from just the one step above will hold no fears. Haringey have had a decent start to the season themselves, but in the league they have had a pretty kind set of fixtures and in reality they probably aren't as strong as their early league position suggests. I think at 15/8 the home side are worth backing.   South Shields v Halifax The home side have underperformed so far this season after having likely promotion taken away from them after Covid hit. They still have a very good side though and I just wonder if a game like this will see them perform to their best. It is a very tricky tie for Halifax whose only win so far was against Dagenham and I certainly think the home side are capable of causing an upset.   Stafford v Skelmersdale Stafford have only managed to get 1 point so far and that was against a Grantham side who have only managed 1 point more. They have managed to score just twice and one of them was an own goal! Now they did cause an upset in the previous round when beating Hereford so they are capable, but that result does stand out. Now they are expected to win which they can't do in the league and I think Step 6 side Skelmersdale have a chance of causing an upset themselves. They have only played 1 league game which they won, but they beat one of Stafford's league rivals Lancaster in an earlier round so we know they can beat someone from this league. At 17/4 it is a sporing play.   Tonbridge Angels v Taunton The home side are set for a season of struggle and they have only just managed to get through to this stage of the FA Cup. They only beat a dreadful Farnborough 1-0 in the 2nd qualifying round and then beat Chichester 2-1 in the previous round. Having lost two of their 3 league games as well it suggests they aren't up too much. Taunton will certainly be the best team they have played in the FA Cup this season. They were unbeaten before losing to the Met Police last Saturday, but they had a great win over Truro in the previous round and they look to have a great chance of causing an upset. When I first had a glance at the prices it was Taunton who stood out for me.    Wealdstone v Hayes & Yeading There has certainly been plenty of goals in Wealdstone games so far this season with them having 4,1,7,7 and 5 goals in their matches. They have won their last two against Wrexham, who missed some good chances and Chesterfield who were poor. I think Hayes are capable of causing an upset here. They have lost just once in the league and were going well when the season was stopped in March. They look worth chancing at a big price.   Weymouth v Oxford City Oxford City did us a good turn last Saturday and they really do look in good shape at the moment. Obviously Weymouth will be a much tougher test than Tonbridge, but Weymouth have found scoring goals hard to come by in the National League so far this season although did score their first 2 when beating Kings Lynn on Saturday. I do think City though have a chance of the upset and look value at 31/10   FA Cup Acca I have a short priced 4 fold for Saturday. Dagenham to beat Hartley Wintney, Darlington to beat Cambridge City, Maidenhead to beat Cray Valley and Chester to beat Marine. The acca pays 2.6/1 with Bet365   Boston v AFC Telford Just the one bet in the league fixtures this week and it comes in the National League North. Boston have only played their opening day fixture because of Covid issues and as much as they won 4-0 against Leamington I do think the time off will be a decent negative here. They face a Telford side who have made a good start to the season winning twice and drawing once. As we know that draw was against Blyth when they should have had all 3 points. That gift of a goal is also the only goal they have conceded in the league so far. I think Telford at 100/30 is way too big given the circumstances and hopefully they can make their extra game time pay.   Maldon & Tiptree 1pt @15/8 with Bet365 South Shields 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor Skelmersdale 1pt @ 19/5 with BetVictor Taunton 2pts @ 4/1 with BetVictor Hayes & Yeading 1pt @ 13/2 with BetVictor Oxford City 1pt @ 31/10 with BetVictor Dagenham/Darlington/Maidenhead/Chester 1pt acca @ 2.6/1 with Bet365 AFC Telford 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfred

4/4 winning bets on Saturday to continue the superb start to the season. It was a very comfortable afternoon as well with all 4 bets landing with ease. Things are rarely that easy, but it is great when it does go that smoothly. So far I have staked 52.5pts and the profit is currently at 57pts. Only 2 leagues have full fixtures planned (although some are off due to Covid and FA Cup reasons) so options are limited. There are 4 teams that make some appeal though with 3 odds on and 1 just about odds against. Because of that I am going to stick them all in an acca which isn't something I would usually do, but I would need 3 to win anyway to make a profit at level stakes so I think it makes more sense to spend a point on the acca which pays 10.6/1 with Betfred
In the Pitching In Northern Premier I like Gainsborough to beat a Stalybridge side who are really struggling so far this season and Matlock to beat a Grantham side who have yet to win a game. In the Pitching In Isthmian Premier I think Leatherhead can beat a Brightingsea Regent side who sacked their manager at the weekend and the new managers are going to have to work some magic on a team who look weak for the level. East Thurrock only have 2 points from 7 games and they also aren't good enough for the league at the moment. They host Horsham who should have too much for them.
Gainsborough, Matlock, Leatherhead & Horsham 1pt acca @ 10.6/1 with Betfred

More profit on Tuesday to continue the good 1st month or so of the new season. Most of my bets are usually in the National League, but nothing really stands out as a bet this week, so I have 3 bets at Step 2 and 1 at Step 3. Also
Gloucester City v Blyth Spartans
Blyth would have gone down last season if the season had of ended and they already look like they will be in a relegation battle this time around as well. I opposed them last week and Telford should have put the game to bed well before they gifted Blyth an equalizer in the 90th minute. They lost in the FA Cup on Wednesday to Marske who are two levels below them and they managed just two shots in the whole game. I have watched all 180 minutes of Gloucester's two games in the league so far and my thoughts pre season that they would be title contenders have been proven by what I have seen so far. They are playing some attractive football and scoring some quality goals. I think they will be suited by their 3G pitch this season as it suits the type of football they are playing and the team is miles better than the Blyth one on paper. It really should be a comfortable home win and the 17/10 on the -1 handicap makes plenty of appeal. I think it is worth covering the -2 at 15/4 as well.
Oxford City v Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge had a slightly surprising opening day win at Billericay, but they were beaten by Hungerford on Saturday and although they are through to the FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round they have had quite easy games against Farnborough and Chichester and were hardly convincing in either. On the other hand Oxford have looked pretty good so far in beating Bath 2-0 on the opening day and then getting a point at Chelmsford. What was particularly eye-catching though was their FA Cup win over Tamworth on Tuesday night. They could both have been at the same level this season and Tamworth are well fancied again to win their league so for Oxford to beat them 6-1 is some statement. If they are in that short of form again here it should be a home win.
Needham Market v Bromsgrove Sporting
Needham are still unbeaten in the league and are looking pretty decent and scoring plenty of goals as well. I think they look a bit of value here against Bromsgrove as they are the outsiders and they should be much closer together. They are doing OK and have only lost 1 game, but they aren't quite hitting the heights of last season at the moment. At 12/5 the home side look a good value bet.
Gloucester City 3pts -1 @ 17/10 with Betway & 1pt  -2 @ 15/4
Oxford City 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betfred
Needham Market 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred

St Ives v Lowestoft ( Southern Premier Central)
Adding Lowestoft to the bets after being alerted to the fact that the St Ives manager has tested positive for Covid and that at least 6 players are showing symptoms and have taken tests although wont find out the results until Wednesday. At this stage the league are forcing St Ives to play the game, which quite frankly is crazy in my view, although I guess they might see sense tomorrow and call the game off. Anyway if it does go ahead clearly St Ives are going to be pretty weak and I guess hey might even struggle to get a whole team out, but that is only a guess at this stage.
Lowestoft 2pts @ 5/4 with Betfred

Great to land another big number on Saturday with Eastleigh romping to a 5-1 victory over Barnet. Barnet were the team I wanted to back to go down, but there is still no sign of prices sadly and obviously it would be shorter than it would have been after that defeat. Games are going to come thick and fast now and I have 3 bets in the National League plus one bet in the National League South as the Step 2 get their seasons underway after their FA Cup games on Saturday.
Chesterfield v Hartlepool
I was keen to oppose Chesterfield on Saturday and I am keen to oppose them again. I think missing out on playing on Saturday could be a negative thing as it extends the amount of time since they last played a competitive game and Hartlepool got their eye in on Saturday when beating Aldershot 2-1. They certainly look the stronger side on paper and they played pretty well at the weekend. As I mentioned in Saturday's preview Chesterfield have only played 3 friendlies and they look underprepared for the start of the season.
Maidenhead v Kings Lynn
Maidenhead were poor on Saturday as they lost 3-0 to Sutton and as much as Alan Devonshire always seems to work his magic in getting them to survive he could struggle to do that this time around. They survived by less than a point on PPG last season and there is a strong chance they would have gone down if the season continued. I thought Kings Lynn did well on Saturday against Yeovil and it showed great character to come back from a goal down twice. They carry plenty of threat up front and I think the Maidenhead defence could struggle to contain them. I am really surprised they are as big as 14/5 as I would have it at least a point shorter.
Solihull v Wrexham
Solihull were outplayed by Woking on Saturday and that has to be a concern going forward and they face a really tough first home game of the season against Wrexham. Wrexham had a tough first home game themselves against a very good Boreham Wood side and they edged it 2-1 and I certainly think they will have a better season they did last time around. Indeed, this game seems to be priced up on last seasons form rather than what happened on Saturday and their respective squads. 12/5 looks a big price about an away win.
Maidstone v Welling
Welling suffered a big cup upset on Saturday losing 2-0 to Sheppey a team 3 leagues below them. That is hardly a good start to the season and they could struggle here against a Maidstone side who beat Dover 3-0 in their last pre-season friendly game and won at Hendon in the FA Cup on Saturday. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but it really would take some turn around from Welling's effort at the weekend to get an opening day 3 points here.
Hartlepool 2pts @ 15/8 with Bet365
Kings Lynn 2pts @ 14/5 with Bet365
Wrexham 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
Maidstone 2pts @ Evs with Bet365

Decent profit on Saturday so hopefully more of the same of Tuesday night where I have 5 bets across the 4 Pitching In divisions.
Grantham v Stafford
Going to try Grantham again here despite the loss on Saturday. Stafford have lost both their first two games and are struggling to get going at the start of the season. Obviously it wasn't great that Grantham lost, but it was a late penalty which meant Atherton got the win and they do look stronger than the away side here.
Gainsborough v Whitby
Warrington were one of the winners on Saturday when they beat Gainsborough, but despite the 3-0 score line they were fortunate to win. Two of the goals came about because of goalkeeper mistakes and the other one was a penalty. Gainsborough played well and it was a much improved performance from the FA Cup game. I think they are over priced to win this as Whitby were fortunate to come from two down to draw on Saturday against Buxton who were cruising and then conceded two quick goals. I would make the home side favourites.
East Thurrock v Carshalton
The home side were taken over by a very rich man in the summer, but he hasn't really spent on the team and they have struggled to far this season losing both their league games. They also have injury issues at the moment and Carshalton really ought to be too strong for their hosts. They were 2-0 up and dominating on Saturday at Margate, but conceded an own goal and a 90th minute penalty to draw 2-2. This game should be easier and 6/4 is a big price in my view.
Needham Market v Royston
Needham were well backed on the opening day of the season, but could only draw against Redditch, which on the face of it looked a poor result. However Redditch then went and won on Saturday so maybe they are going to be better than myself and others were giving them credit for. Needham won as well beating Stratford 4-2 in a comfortable victory. Royston look like they might struggle to reach last season's heights. They have drawn both league games so far against Banbury and at Alvechurch on Saturday. Alvechurch should be one of the strugglers and it took a 93rd minute goal to get Royston a point. The prices are massively out here in my view and there is no way the home side should be 3/1.
Rushall Olympic v Bromsgrove Sporting
Another game were the home side are wrongly priced at 3/1. Rushall eased passed Leiston on the opening day, but they were even better when drawing against Peterborough Sports on Saturday. They were down to 10 men whilst a goal down as well, but deserved the point. Bromsgrove won for us on Saturday, but didn't really deserve to win as Biggleswade deserved at least a point. Bromsgrove haven't really convinced so far this season and are struggling to match their performances of last time around at the moment. Rushall have got a much better chance of winning this than the prices suggest.
Grantham 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365
Gainsborough 1pt @ 17/10 with Betfred
Carshalton 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfred
Needham Market 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
Rushall Olympic 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

You started yours whilst I was writing the previews which is why I started a new one and you could be right in saying we will only get one week of this.

I don't like football any more.

Sheffield United vs Bournemouth
The reduced Premier League schedule gives us a fascinating clash this Sunday afternoon when Sheffield United host Bournemouth in a 2pm GMT kick-off at Bramall Lane. The home team are keen to continue their assault on a potential shock European qualification campaign against an away side that are still locked deep in a relegation battle at the wrong end of the table.
Sheffield United's outstanding season is still showing no sign of coming to an end. Chris Wilder has led his team to 6th in the table and they will move into 5th place and just 2 points outside the Champions League spots if they win today. The Blades have faltered slightly lately with just 2 wins from their last 7 league games but they've kept in touch with the teams around them. The club has won more points on the road than they have at home but they'll surely fancy their chances in this game. Especially given out of the 7 league games they have lost so far this season that 5 of those have been against the sides in the top three. It'll be interesting to see what involvement new signings Sander Berge and Richairo Zivkovic have in today's match.
Bournemouth were looking a bit lost at sea not that long ago. Eddie Howe's men were free falling down the table having lost 5 of 6 league games played. The rot has stopped to some extent in recent matches with the Cherries having won back-to-back matches against Brighton and Aston Villa. However, both of those games were at home. The south coast club have only won 3 of their 12 away league games this season and have lost 6 of their last 7 on the road with only 1 win in their previous 9 away league games. Defensive frailties remain a concern for Howe with his team only keeping 1 clean sheet in their last 14 league games.
I appreciate that this game will be closer than it might have been a few weeks back. Bournemouth look to have restored some confidence with those two wins but they're still down in 16th place and just 2 points above the relegation zone. It's a fragile position to be in. This is a great opportunity for United to really put the cat amongst the pigeons at the top end. I think Bournemouth's poor away form will hamper them. It's one thing to win at home in this division but away wins are a lot harder to come by. I'm not overjoyed by United's price but I have to back it.
Sheffield United to Win @ 1.83 with Unibet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.67 with Betfair

Who's paying 1.80? 

Agree!  btw Bet365 pays 2.30 under 3.00 and 2.50 under 3.5
Other than that, Brighton can beat Everton (4.10 Bet365) but I'll play safe -- AH +0.75 @@ 2.30 Bet365
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, +2.5 under @@ 2.10 Bet365

Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet:
Tottenham has many injuries and one of them is Kane (11 goals). Also, but far less important, Ndombele and Sissoko are out (both 2 goals). Liverpool also has some less important missings, but still they are missings; Liverpool hasn't allowed a goal in 9 out of 10 recent matches; I expect Mourinho to use a (very) defensive approach against Liverpool (as he normally does against stronger opponents, but surely if a key-striker is missing); If Tottenham takes the lead I expect a even more defensive approach. If Liverpool takes the lead maybe they will take the foot of the gaspedal, because next week Manchester United awaits. All-in-all I don't see many goals coming in. Why not Under 2.50? Well the possibility margin isn't huge as 1-2 / 0-3 (and even 1-3 [I think a Tottenham win is out of the question]) are also possible outcomes under these circumstances. I don't want to take that risk either and 1.90 is absolutely good enough for me.

Also Derby 5.38, Northampton 6.03
As with Sheff Wednesday yesterday, these prices are insane 

Leiston got us off to a good start on New Year's Day, but the 3pm kick offs weren't as kind and there was a small loss on the day in the end. There look to be some good bets on Saturday mainly at Step 3.
Kettering v Farsley Celtic
I am leaving the National League alone this weekend as it looks a tricky set of fixtures so I start with this game in the National League North which has already seen the home side being backed. Quite why they were 2/1 I don't know, but I still think there is some juice in the price. In my view they should be favourites. As I wrote last Saturday they were unbeaten under Paul Cox going into the Boston game which they were unlucky to lose. They then went to Brackley on Wednesday and got a very good point against an in form side. Farsley seem very in and out and although they beat Bradford 5-0 over Christmas they did lose both games to Guiseley. I think Kettering are the better side and I would have them around 5/4 so the 9/5 available is a big price for me.
Leamington v Altrincham
On the face of it Leamington are in good form having lost just 2 of their last 8 games, but they have lost George Carline who was on loan from Solihull and he was a key player in their good run of form. By all accounts he bossed the game against Gloucester on Boxing Day and without him Gloucester beat them 2-1 on Wednesday. Altrincham's overall form is good as they have only lost once in their last 9 league games, but their away form isn't as good as it should be with their win at Curzon on Boxing Day being their only away win in the league so far. They did lose at Bradford which isn't great, but prior to that they had got a very good 2-2 at Kings Lynn so it suggests they are improving on the road. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but I do think the 19/10 is too big.
Cheshunt v Kingstonian
Into the Isthmian Premier Division and I am very keen on Kingstonian here. Their only defeat in their last 10 league games was against Bognor and they have certainly found their form compared to earlier in the season when they were drawing too many matches. They have only lost 4 league games so fr and whilst they might be a bit too far behind to be winning the title they certainly have every right to be thinking they can get into the play-offs. Meanwhile Cheshunt have only won 4 games all season and have only picked up 4 points in their last 10 games. The only points they have been picking up have been against either teams in poor form or the teams around them in the table and it is hard to see them being up to getting anything from this game against a bang in form team.
Corinthian Casuals v Leatherhead
Kingstonian are 4th in the 10 game form table which Leatherhead currently top having got 25 points out of a possible 30. That is some run of form and interestingly their last 7 victories have all been by a single goal including when they won the reverse fixture 2-1 back in November. What that means is they are very strong defensively whilst they are able to get the crucial goal or goals down the other end. Take out the 3-0 defeat to East Thurrock and they have only let in 4 goals in the other 9 games. Casuals have picked up 4 points in their last 2 games, but they were playing Wingate & Finchley and Cheshunt so that doesn't really amount to a great deal and this match is a big rise in class of opponent. Leatherhead look a big price at odds against.
Alvechurch v Royston
The BetVictor Southern Premier League Central has been pretty kind to us and hopefully Royston can add to the profits on Saturday. They should be well odds on for me to beat one of the weakest sides in the division. They did manage to win on Wednesday, but that was against Redditch who are detached at the bottom and then they only won 3-2. Royston have only lost one of their last 10 games and they have put 5 past Lowestoft and 4 past Peterborough Sports in their last 3 games. A shade of odds against looks a good bet to me.
Hendon v Weston Super Mare
At 90 minutes Weston were losing 2-1 to Truro on Wednesday, but 3 minutes later they were 3-2 in front as they scored 2 goals in injury time to take the points. Having beaten Taunton on Boxing Day as well Weston have now won 4 on the bounce and they finally seem to be showing the form they ought to have been showing all season. They have added to the squad in the last 2/3 weeks and they look even stronger because of it. Hendon cost us on Boxing Day when losing to Harrow and they not surprisingly lost to Chesham on New Year's Day. If Weston continue in the vein the have they ought to be making it 5 on the bounce.
Kettering 2pts @ 7/4 with BetVictor
Altrincham 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365
Kingstonian 4pts @ 31/20 with BetVictor
Leatherhead 3pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor
Royston 3pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
Weston Super Mare 2pts @ 141/100 with Marathon
 

Double: Sevilla to win @@ 1.66 bet365 and Leganes to win and under 2.5 @@ 4.75 Bet365