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libbert

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About libbert

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 08/25/1981
  1. Prediction: Italy not to qualify to the quarter final. To lay Italy to qualify is 1.51. This prediction is mostly a hunch, but Italy didn´t play very in the Qualifying round. Also they didn´t qualify at the EURO2004. /Libbert
  2. Re: Short Handed Strategy I was in the same situation. Started of with full ring game, 10 seats, and moved to short handed. Found it extremely difficult to start of with. It is a tough transition to become more loose. Now it is opposite, I could never go back to full ring games. Love the action at short handed!! My suggestion would be to start playing short handed sit and go, or move down in limit. After you feel comfortable with the numbers of players and have adjusted your stating hand range, move up again.
  3. Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Very intriguing!! I have purchased Betangels Odds Extractor, which makes it possible to exctract odds from selective markeds at betfair. The data is gathered in excel files at a chosen interval (down to 1 sec). I have approx. gathered data from 70-80 live events. I hope that this can give me some insight how different match conditions affect the odds, but I still need a lot of data and most importaint time to look at it:lol :lol
  4. Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. OK, you are saying that the system might profit because of the trading strategy. Taken from the Man Utd- Blackburn match: Blackburn score first :wall going to let it ride until half-time, another 15 min. odds currently are h2.3 - a3.3 - d3.7 odds for the draw are actually dropping, not rising. "Going to let it ride", that is gambling in my opinion. To have a naked position in an option will always be very risky, Blackburn could score again or a red card to Man Utd could change the match completely. Could you elaborate what you mean by: "Indeed it will, I'm looking for profit by applying trading strategies that bring the strike rate above the level that is implied by the odds." About the marked efficiency... That is a god question whether it indeed is. Financial literature would often make the argument that a marked containing a large amount of irrational agents who would on an aggregated level make the marked efficient. But I am not sure that Betfair is efficient.... If I were to try a live betting system, the underlying assumption would be that "average Joe" cannot comprehend all the contingencies that effects a live match. The bets placed are therefore based on feelings for a sure thing or getting the long shot. But again who knows how it is on the aggregated level..... I still think that the cost of insuring against 0-0 is too big. The commission is quite a large amount compared with the potential amount you could win. I will follow this thread with great interest, and I truly hope that you succeed!! /Michael
  5. Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Hi DP Do you have any theory whether there is any value in these bets. If we assume that betfair is efficient, that is that the prices on the marked represent the true probabilities for an outcome. Then this system will loose money because of the commission given to betfair. If Betfair is not efficient then the system should give at least the commission rate. My thoughts about the system is that laying the draw should at least give a profit that exceeds what a bet on over 1 goal would give. (between 1.08 to 1.11). That is under the assumption that the odds for a goal is the true probabilities. Furthermore the system would have to give a profit also exceed the commission to betfair. This gives that laying on the draw should give at least give (in a situation with 1.1 over 1 goal and 5 % commission) odds 1.115. I would not reduce my risk by backing no goals. This would just make it even harder to make a profit, because of the commission. My theory would be to lay the draw on matches with as even teams as possible. Home win probability = away win probability. By choosing these matches you would not loose if the wrong team scores first. It also seems like Aldric keeps open positions after a goal, thats just gambling in my opinion. You will have to base a system on some exact rules. This is of cause just my opinion. The payoff should again in average exceed what would you could get by backing 1 goal in the game + commission. That odds 1.155 in avr in the situation I wrote above. I hope that this made any sense. /Michael
  6. Re: Trying a Chris Ferguson I have finally passed the $1000 mark. I find it a bit unlikely that I will reach the $10000 point in 2007, but who knows.... I might be lucky. I have changed the tactic, from playing with full buy in to a low stack, 15 times big blind at NL $100. I chance table when I have doubled. I find this strategy very effective mainly because people are biased towards low stacks. They believe that low stack = bad fishy player. So you will get extreme value when going all in with quite a large range of cards. I do not consider it cheating if you loose the initial amount and start again. This is my third attempt. A good place to begin is the ipoker network because they have 0.01-0.02 tables. /Michael
  7. Re: Trying a Chris Ferguson Hi You are quite right, I am not following a bank roll as strict as Fergusons at the moment. I will follow 30 buy ins when I reach NL200. I have learnt that is vital to move down in limits if you have lost a few buy ins. I lost 30% of the roll over 2 days last week, so had to go down or else the whole roll would be at risk. /Michael
  8. Re: Trying a Chris Ferguson Hi Everybody The roll is now $670... Now playing NL$50. This is after a rather conservative poker strategy. The conclusion so far has been: - By far value to fold if reraised. People on these rather low limits seldom reraise if they do not have a hand with some strength. - Reraise often preflop for value. - Always play with full buy in. I often played with minimum buy in on NL$200 table. Here people consider you as a "fish" because you are low stack and are therefore reluctant to call all ins. Where would you put your money next (bank roll of $500-$750, NL$50)? I am thinking about Mansion. /LePolloLoco
  9. Re: Trying a Chris Ferguson Hi Everybody The roll is now $670... This is after a rather konservation poker strategy. The conclusion so far has been:
  10. Hi Does anybody have any experience with how fast these point are earned on 0,25-0,5 (NL50) tables? I am considering betfairs sign up bonus. Thanks /Michael
  11. Re: Trying a Chris Ferguson Just a brief update... The roll is now $100. I hope that there is time to play next, eventhough I have a few exams coming up. When/if I reach $200 I will try a place call tridentpoker. They have a 100% sign up bonus. Does anybody have any experience with this site? /Michael http://lepolloloco.blogspot.com/
  12. Re: Trying a Chris Ferguson Hi DAC I have almost reached the $50 mark. I was planning on signing up at pokerstars, they offer new players a 150% bonus up to $75. It is very difficult to find good bonus offers when you are playing 0,1-0,2 tables... /Michael
  13. Hi I recently found a podcast where Chris Ferguson (pro poker player) talked about a poker project he had. He turned $1 into $20000 by playing online poker (with a very tight bank roll management) So when I received 5 punds for free yesterday (CDPoker), I thought: "I have to try this!" I think that one of the most challenging things about this project is to staying motivated. So I have made a blog about it: http://lepolloloco.blogspot.com/ It is probably not very interesting for you guys to begin with, but maybe later when/if the project is a success. /Michael aka LePolloLoco