Rey86

i dont see any participation so lets have a video of Billy
a God amongst mortal men
 
 
   

I used the opportunity while there's been hardly anything to bet on to analyse the results of my spread betting sells, nearly 1500 bets in total (some real money, some "paper trades"). The total return was just shy of 6,000 points but it was good to see what was profitable and what wasn't. As a result I've decided to stop betting real money on some things and start on others, and to raise the minimum price for some markets as well (as the lower price sells struggle to make a decent profit). I've also decided to start paper trading several other bets to see how they perform. (Easier to track more markets while competitions return gradually.)
It's the most detailed study of my betting records that I've ever done and I think it will be really useful. It was also something to do during lockdown! 
Since I recommenced the bets again this weekend there have been 27 paper trades showing a profit of 154 points and 1 actual bet yielding a thumping return of... 1 point! 
Only a tiny sample though and I'm hoping, long term, to get an improved return from the real money bets.

Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen
The final game in the Bundesliga this weekend is tonight's 7:30pm BST kick-off at the Weser-Stadion where a struggling Werder Bremen side take on a Bayer Leverkusen team with aspirations of qualifying for the Champions League this season. Will we see the hosts upset the odds or will this simply be another result that condemns them a little bit closer to the second tier?
Werder Bremen are in 17th place and now 9 points off safety. Florian Kohfeldt's team might have two games in hand on the teams around them but even that advantage isn't enough to pull them clear of the danger zone. This team has the ignominious achievement of possessing the worst home record in the Bundesliga having lost their last 6 home matches in the league. To make matters worse, they haven't even scored a goal at home since November 2019.
Bayer Leverkusen are almost a complete contradiction to their opponents heading into this game. Head coach Pete Bosz has led his team to 5th in the table and just 4 points off the pace of the top four with a game in hand. 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their 9 league games before the suspension kicked in. It's also 9 wins from their last 10 competitive matches. If they can hit the ground running with that kind of form here then they will be a serious contender for a top four finish.
It's always a tricky one after a prolonged break and the results in Bundesliga already have shown some teams have adapted to a return to action better than others. The break will probably have helped Werder Bremen more than Bayer Leverkusen. It would have given the home side some respite and it would have stunted the away team's momentum. I still think there is a gulf in class here and I have to back a narrow away win.
Bayer Leverkusen to Win @ 1.81 with VBet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.38 with BetVictor

Augsburg vs Wolfsburg
The Bundesliga returns this weekend to great applause. It's a small step towards normality and hopefully everyone remains safe and healthy during the resumption of the league. I'll attempt to get a preview for every game in this opening weekend so we can get a better understanding of where teams are picking up. The first game up is Augsburg versus Wolfsburg in a 2:30pm BST kick-off on Saturday afternoon at the WWK Arena.
Augsburg resume their league campaign in 14th place and just 5 points above the relegation zone. It's an uncomfortable position for Heiko Herrlich's men but they'll be glad to have the chance to finish their season and do everything they can to avoid relegation. One thing we're hoping to see is goals in this game because 10 of the 12 league games played at Augsburg's home ground have seen at least 3 goals scored. Unfortunately, the home team's form heading into the suspension period wasn't great having lost 4 of their last 5 matches. The club has also failed to beat their opponents for today's game in their last four meetings.
Wolfsburg find themselves in a more positive position than their opponents for this game. Die Wolfe are 7th in the table and just 1 point off the European qualification spots. Head coach Oliver Glasner has seen his team build their season around solid defensive performances with only Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig conceding less goals so far. Once again, the goals scored is a focal point here. The team have seen an average of 4.75 goals scored in their last four away games. It's 6 league games unbeaten for this team in the league so the challenge will be seeing if they can continue that run.
Well, it goes without saying that their pre-suspension statistics suggest we should be backing a goal-packed game. I'm swaying towards backing the away win because Wolfsburg were looking in good nick before the break. Augsburg were in a bit of a slump so they break has probably done them good. It's a hard call to make with the first game back but I'm going to look to back the away side to sneak a win.
Wolfsburg to Win @ 2.20 with Betway
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.95 with BetVictor

51 result: Energetic won 2-1. Won £80
Profit to date £2724.16

from my own calculations, i can definetely rate footballxg is better than footystats in this aspect.
footystats seem to have overreacting measure system in their xg data that overinterpertates their xg numbers.
i have yet to do the comparison between footballxg and understat though

Big bro....been going through the old threads, mining data and preparing for the post Corona Season as no knowledge is useless.
Have a question, Pinnacle sports claim to welcome winning punters, so in your industry experience.....do you really agree.
Will they truly honour withdrawals consistently without undue limitations no matter the sum?

81 result: Abdul u/p. Lost £100
Profit to date £3009.66
82. £75ew Tahitian Orana @7/1 (Vaal 14.20)

83 result: Evans won 2-1. Won £100
85 result: Evans won 2-1. Won £100
Profit to date £3057.70

Hello!
1. Barcelona over 1.44
2. Betis over 1.57
3. Atalanta over 1.57
-------------------------------------------
20* 3.549////70.98/////////////////////////
Good luck !!!!

Bets:     109
W-L-V:  57-52-0
S/R:      52.3%
Profit:   +28.1 units
Yield:    +1.2%
L10: W W W L L L W W W L
 

2 out of 2 yesterday though both left it late. 31 points returns 100.4 for a 69.4 point profit.
17 winners from 44 bets (38.64%). 746 points returns 899.13 for a profit of 153.13 points with an ROI of 20.53%.

Bets:     103
W-L-V:  54-49-0
S/R:      52.4%
Profit:   +31.6 units
Yield:    +1.4%
L10: W W W L W W W W L W
 

Bets:     102
W-L-V:  53-49-0
S/R:      52.0%
Profit:   +3.0 units
Yield:    +0.1%
L10: W W L W W W W L W W
 

OFI Crete vs Atromitos
The Greek Super League matches extend into Monday this week and I'm looking at the clash between OFI Crete and Atromitos that kicks off at 5:30pm GMT at the Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium. Let me just put my teeth back in. Anyway, both teams are firmly in the hunt for a place in the Championship Round but time is running out. Can either team win to help their efforts?
OFI Crete are knocking on the door of the Championship Round places in 8th place and just 1 point off the pace. Head coach Georgios Simos will be looking to spur his team on and qualify for the top six as the season reaches its business end. Two games remain after this match before the split so it's not an all-or-nothing affair but every result has added importance over the next few 90 minutes. OFI have a solid home record but haven't won in their last 4 matches and haven't even managed to score in three of those games.
Atromitos come into this game quietly optimistic that they can gatecrash the Championship Round. Head coach Savvas Pantelidis has seen his team labour to 9th in the table and 3 points off the top six. A win here would put them right back in contention but then a defeat would really pile the pressure on heading into the final two matches before the split. Losing 7 of their 11 away matches in the league doesn't make for great reading before this encounter. Unfortunately, there are also major issues in the final third. The club hasn't tasted victory in their last 8 matches and they've also failed to score in any of those games. That's over 720 minutes of competitive football without scoring. What a shambles!
That final statistic is a glaring one. When you're on a poor run and the goals aren't coming you begin to lose faith. It's hard to see how Atromitos can turn things around. They're not being completely turned over by anyone so when they do start finding the net again then it could bring the wins. Until then, you have to back whoever they are playing to score more and take the win.
OFI Crete to Win @ 1.70 with Betfair
Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 3.30 with Unibet
@betcatalog, @THEODORE-007, @Magic0024, @Rey86, and @Icongene.

Portsmouth v Shrewsbury 1 @ 1.6
Rotherham v AFC Wimbledon 1 @ 1.36
Southend v Coventry 2 @ 1.754
£23.45 Treble

Well, the less sports, markets and bookies involved then the less benefit you're going to get I suppose. If you're backing, laying, buying and selling across lot's of sports and firms then it's miles better to have it all in a spreadsheet. Even with one firm, how much detail can you take in at a glance and how far back can you view? (Usually at least 6 months and up to 12 generally I'd say.)
You could always import or copy and paste your bet history into a spreadsheet for a bit of periodic scrutiny, whether monthly, quarterly or yearly. Might be interesting to see whether certain leagues are more profitable than others or whether unders are better than overs etc. The brain tends to play tricks on us, if we have a good spell on a certain market we tend to think we do well at it but looking at the wider picture can tell a different story.
It depends on your time and inclination but I'm well into the habit now and definitely find it worthwhile.
Perhaps the more pertinent question would be why would anyone only bet on one sport and with one bookie! 
I'm playing devil's advocate to an extent with that comment. There's certainly a rationale for specialising to some extent thought I'd say that if the one sport is football then it's the hardest one to gain an edge in because there's so much data available to everyone, especially the odds setters. I can't see any argument for just betting with one firm though. You're almost certainly playing at sub optimum odds for the majority of your bets and you're stuck if and when that firm starts to limit you. Just my view though, based on my experience.

so for someone who bets only in one sport and uses only one bookie
is it still usefull?

Essential in my opinion. Doing what you suggest is fine if you're a recreational bettor who just does it for fun, doesn't mind if they lose a bit in the long run and doesn't want to spend much time on betting. (Which is a perfectly acceptable state of affairs and applies to the majority of people who bet, but perhaps less true of many who post on forums such as this one).
Record proper results in a spreadsheet and you can do detailed analysis of your strengths and weaknesses, which sports, markets and firms you do well and badly with. That can help you eliminate bets that you do badly on and focus on placing more winning bets (and, perhaps, staking more on your strongest areas).
Don't do it if you don't feel inclined; this is just a hobby and you should only invest as much time and effort in it as suits you. But don't fool yourself that it isn't worth the effort if you're placing a lot of bets. The potential is there to make £100s or £1000s difference to your bottom line, whether that be reducing how much you lose, turning a loss into a profit or increasing profits already being made.

Bets:     97
W-L-V:  49-48-0
S/R:      50.5%
Profit:   -68.2 units
Yield:    -3.3%
L10: W W L W W W W W W W
 

https://www.soccerstats.com/halftime.asp?league=england

Try Soccer Stats.com, you might find what you need there.

Tranmere v Portsmouth 2 @ 1.75
Crewe v Oldham 1 @ 1.61
Northampton v Port Vale 1 @ 2
£48.45 Treble

3 through
3 waiting on Arsenal
 

Yes, Today 3 out of 6 with more than 55% yield
 
Last 30 days
More than 25% in 50 games in all markets
More than 100% in 20 games in DRAW market
It is too good..don-t know what to say. Check the Suggestions module but keep calm, look for info then make your own decision.