ProfessorMJ

Written Tuesday November 10th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
A dreadful 0-3 performance for the picks last week. Ouch!
That does not shake my confidence at all. Bad weeks will invariably occur every season; they are part of the sports betting game.
Never go too high during winning streaks and never go too low in bad times.
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track! Here are 4 picks for you.
PICK #1 (4 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3.5 FIRST HALF VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
The news that Ben Roethlisberger was placed on the COVID-19 list broke not very long before I posted this article. The line might change depending on Big Ben’s status, but no matter what I’ll take Pittsburgh in the first half. If he misses the game, the spread will be smaller, obviously.
Some factors that I regularly look at are favoring the Bengals. First, the rest factor. Cincy is coming off its bye week, but statistical studies have shown that the best NFL teams use this extra time much more efficiently than weaker ones. Since the Bengals are not among the top tier, the bye week effect won’t be as large.
Secondly, there’s the revenge factor. The Bengals lost both meetings to Pittsburgh last year.
Also, big road underdogs who have been established underdogs for 4+ straight games have done well against the spread in the past.
So why the heck am I taking the Steelers? And why for the first half only?
Pittsburgh had a letdown game in Dallas last week. They took the Cowboys lightly and needed a late comeback to secure the win.
Now facing a division rival, head coach Mike Tomlin will make sure his big boys will be storming out of the gate. I expect a fast start from his squad.
I prefer taking Pittsburgh in the first half because Joe Burrow is capable of scoring 1-2 touchdown(s) late in the fourth quarter to cover the spread after trailing by a good margin.
In the last 9 matchups where the Steelers were at home facing a team with a losing record, they beat the spread on 7 occasions.
No need to remind me that Cincy lost four games by a 5-point margin or less, nor that Pittsburgh won four games by that same margin. I am aware that both teams have been involved in many tight games. That’s precisely why many people will jump on the Bengals train.
However, on paper we have a huge mismatch favoring the home team on both sides of the ball, and yet that home team was only a touchdown favorite before the line went off the board after the Roethlisberger news (which means it will be even lower if he’s out).
Defensively, Cincy ranks dead last in yards-per-carry average allowed, while Pittsburgh is 9th in that category. As for opposing team’s passer rating, the Bengals rank 13th versus 2nd for the Steelers.
On offense, I like what Joe Burrow has done but he’s still a rookie about to face a tough defense. Remember what happened when he faced the Ravens’ defense in a 27-to-3 loss.
To make matters worse, 4 out of the 5 Bengals starting offensive linemen are listed as questionable. You don’t want your offensive line being banged up when facing Pittsburgh’s stout defense.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): BUFFALO BILLS +2 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Is the Bills defense back to its 2018 and 2019 form where they were a top five unit?
Not yet, but they took nice steps last week. That might sound weird after allowing 34 points, but that was against the potent Seahawks offense. Buffalo’s defense was able to pressure Russell Wilson and he ended the game with his worst QB rating of the 2020 season.
On Arizona’s side, their defense was supposed to be pretty weak this year, but they have done a fine job thus far. I’m afraid they might regress, and having two starting cornerbacks, Byron Murphy and Dre Kirkpatrick, listed as questionable is worrisome when you are about to face the great WR trio of Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley.
You may want to keep an eye on the injury status of stud cornerback Tre’Davious White, though. He left the game against Seattle with an ankle injury and did not return. Head coach Sean McDermott called it a day-to-day injury, so I feel like he’s more likely to suit up than not.
Over their last 8 meetings as road underdogs, the Bills hold a nice 5-1-2 ATS record.
Meanwhile, Arizona has beaten the spread just once in the past six games where they were home favorites.
The Cards are at home for the fourth straight week, which boosts their chances of getting the victory. But could they be looking ahead to a critical meeting with the Seahawks next week?
In summary, I like Buffalo to pick up their eighth win of the season as small underdogs.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LOS ANGELES RAMS -1.5 VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
After a very hot start to the 2020 season where many experts were calling him the league’s MVP (deservedly so), Russell Wilson has been struggling a bit.
Wilson’s three worst games, in terms of QB rating, occurred in the last four games. During this time frame, he posted a 12-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio, which is far worse than the 16-to-2 ratio he racked up in the first four matches.
The Cards and the Bills have shown how to disrupt Wilson. You must blitz and put pressure on him. Aaron Donald and company have sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times, fifth-highest in the NFL.
Jared Goff is extremely good when given time to scan the field, especially with such great weapons as Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. However, when Goff is feeling pressure, he is really awful and he doesn’t seem to know how to escape.
Which of these two scenarios is the most likely this Sunday? Considering Seattle’s ineptitude to rush opposing QBs this year, Goff has a good chance to have a clean pocket most of the time. L.A.’s offensive line has been nothing short of outstanding in 2020, allowing the second-fewest sacks this year despite having a QB who is not mobile at all.
Also note that the Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Los Angeles.
The Rams will be well-prepared coming off their bye week. They are also very likely to welcome back on the field their top cornerback, Jalen Ramsey, and their top running back, Darrell Henderson.
Los Angeles holds a good 5-1-1 ATS record coming off a straight up loss (they were beaten by the Dolphins before their bye week). And they post an identical ATS record in their past seven games as home favorites.
As if Seattle’s defense needed more bad news, their top two cornerbacks are listed as questionable: Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. They might also be without linebacker K.J. Wright, who sprained his ankle in Buffalo last week. Finally, Seattle’s top two running backs, Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, are still uncertain to suit up.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 VS HOUSTON TEXANS
Favorites off their bye week have posted a 36-20-4 ATS record over a four-year span. That’s one of the reasons I’m backing the Browns this weekend. They will also be at home for the third straight week.
Houston’s defense is just dreadful. They are 31st in yards-per-carry average and 32nd in opposing QBs’ passer rating. It doesn’t get any worse than this.
Sure, the Texans passing offense is capable of putting up points on the board. Their offensive line is suspect, though. Myles Garrett is licking his chops right now and he could have a huge day. As for the Browns, they quietly have one of the best offensive lines in football.
Odell Beckham is done for the season, but Nick Chubb could return to the lineup this Sunday, as well as right guard Wyatt Teller.
The Texans had five guys departing the previous game due to injuries, including linebacker Brennan Scarlett who broke his arm and running back David Johnson who suffered a concussion.
Houston is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Cleveland, but they are 8-20 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record. They have also struggled on games played on grass, as shown by their 0-5-1 ATS record recently.
PICK #5 (1 STAR): CHICAGO BEARS +3 (@ -115 odds, Pinnacle) VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS
You can either take Chicago +3 at lower odds or +2.5 at higher odds. I recommend taking the former.
The Vikings have been struggling against Da Bears recently; they are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings between these two squads. Over their last 17 trips to the windy city, they beat the spread just three times and lost on 14 occasions.
The difference in Monday night performances between the two teams is staggering. On one hand, Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in such primetime games, while Chicago holds a 4-1 ATS record.
Moreover, the Bears have posted a 13-4-1 ATS record the last 18 times they were home dogs. That’s remarkable!
Let me tell you about a betting strategy that favors Chicago in this matchup:
Bet against a team that intercepted 3+ passes in its previous game, unless that team has a great passing offense and defense.
Last week, Minnesota picked off the Lions’ quarterbacks three times.
That being said, when a team intercepts many passes during a game, I believe there are two possibilities:
1. This team has a great passing attack, forcing its opponent to take chances, which creates more takeaways.
2. This team picked off many passes due to “good luck” more than defensive skill.
Do the Vikings fit in the mold of scenario #1? I don’t think so! Both of their offensive and defensive passing games are not great. Racking up three interceptions was much more likely an outlier than anything else.
From 2013 to Week #7 of the 2020 season, teams that intercepted 3+ passes in their previous contest and were now either underdogs or “small” favorites (i.e. 5 points or less) are 62-81-2 ATS, a 43% win percentage.
I’m going with the Bears to upset the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
Want two quick leans for this weekend?
a) Jaguars +14 at Packers (seems like a trap game for Green Bay, much like the Steelers in Dallas last week, especially after facing two big rivals in Minnesota and San Francisco);
b) Eagles -3 at Giants (Philly is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 visits in New York, while the G-Men are just 2-12 ATS as home underdogs. However, it could be payback time after a heart-breaking 22-21 loss by New York versus the Eagles in Week 7. The Eagles are coming off their bye week).
Let’s crush it this week, fellows!!!
Professor MJ

Written Wednesday November 4th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
ALERT, ALERT, BIG RED ALERT!!!
We have a 5-star pick for just the third time this season!
Here is the record of those high-confidence predictions over the past three seasons (I started rating my picks in 2018 – too bad I didn’t do it in 2017 since we had great lucrative year!):
2020 SEASON: 2-0 RECORD
Week #1: Cards +7 at 49ers (win)
Week #7: Jets +13 vs Bills (win)
2019 SEASON: 2-2 RECORD
Week #5: 49ers -3.5 vs Browns (win)
Week #7: Bears -3 vs Saints (loss)
Week #14: Raiders +3 vs Titans (loss)
Week #17: Cowboys -12 vs Redskins (win)
2018 SEASON: 3-0 RECORD
Week #12: Ravens -10.5 vs Raiders (win)
Week #12: Bills +3.5 vs Jaguars (win)
Week #14: Saints -8 at Bucs (win)
OVERALL: 7-2 RECORD (77.8% WIN RATE)
Again, I feel obligated to remind you an important piece of advice: do not bet your house on a single bet. As a matter of fact, you shouldn’t bet more than 5% of your bankroll on one selection.
Before we get going, here is a quick review of the performance of this year’s NFL picks:
5 STARS: 2-0 record
4 STARS: 4-2-1 record
3 STARS: 6-7 record
2 STARS: 1-4 record
1 STAR: 4-2 record
OVERALL: 17-15-1 record (a 53.1% win rate)
While the overall winning percentage is decent, notice this interesting trend:
PICKS RATED 4-5 STARS: 6-2-1 record
PICKS RATED 1-2-3 STARS: 11-13 record
In other words, the best plays have been hitting at a higher rate.
All right, let’s get started!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): DENVER BRONCOS +4 AT ATLANTA FALCONS
Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. The Falcons will be benefiting from three extra days of rest since they played last week’s Thursday night game. Still, I absolutely love the Broncos in this matchup.
I even sent an alert to my mailing list subscribers and my Facebook/Twitter followers as early as Monday to let them know I was taking Denver. At the time, I bet the Broncos +4 points at -105 odds. I was convinced the line would only deteriorate as the week would progress and so far I’ve been right. At the time of writing (Wednesday morning), Pinnacle now has Denver +4 at -113 odds, while many bookies have dropped their line to 3.5. I believe it might even go as low as 3 points.
Despite some key injuries on defense, Denver remains very solid on that side of the ball. They have lost Jurrell Casey, Mike Purcell and Von Miller. Still, their 11 starters have an average 2020 ProFootballFocus grades of 68.3, while the league average is 61.6. They have a much better defense than Atlanta’s.
On offense, you might want to give the edge to the Falcons, though. However, Calvin Ridley is on the wrong side of questionable due to a foot injury he suffered last week. He is a big part of their offense.
The big question is how Drew Lock will perform this Sunday. He had a good first outing against the Titans. He got hurt in Week #2 and had two straight disappointing games upon his return. Indeed, he did not throw a single TD pass versus four picks in those two matchups.
Last week, trailing 24-to-3 early in the third quarter, it looked like Lock would finish with another poor performance, but he threw 3 TD passes in the second half to seal a stunning 31-30 comeback win over the Chargers. This game will certainly boost his confidence, and facing a suspect Falcons secondary should also help.
A few interesting trends:
The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games as road underdogs;
The Falcons are 0-4 ATS over their past four matches as home favorites.
Final note: it would help the Broncos if the coaching staff realized that Phillip Lindsay is a superior running back than Melvin Gordon. Give him more touches for crying out loud!
Lindsay has rushed for over 1,000 yards both in 2018 and 2019, while averaging between 4.5 and 6.4 yards per carry in each of his three years in the NFL. Meanwhile, Gordon averages 4.2 yards per rush and he doesn’t look as explosive.
I know that Gordon was given a fat contract, but you need to put your best players on the field if you want to win!
PICK #2 (3 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM -3 VS NEW YORK GIANTS
First of all, I tend to back favorites coming off their bye week, as they held a 98-60-5 ATS record during a four-year span.
Washington will be much more rested than New York. Not only are they coming off their bye, but the Giants fought hard against the Bucs last Monday night, which means they are getting one less day than usual to game plan and to rest for this upcoming divisional matchup.
Notice that Washington will be at home for a third consecutive week, and also a fifth time in six weeks! Their lone road game during this time period was in New York, which wasn’t a long trip.
Speaking of making a trip to New York, do I need to remind you that I love betting teams that have lost the first meeting between two division rivals? Back in Week 6, the Giants won a close call by a 20-to-19 score against Washington.
At times, Daniel Jones looks like a franchise quarterback. He makes good throws and you start thinking he is the future of this organization. And then he makes dumb mistakes that leaves you scratching your head. He just doesn’t seem to learn from his mistakes! He is a turnover machine.
I like what Kyle Allen has done this year. He has thrown four TD passes versus just one interception. Granted, he faced the Giants and the Cowboys, which are not among the league’s best defenses, but he still did his job. He has also completed close to 69% of his passes, which is impressive. He seems to have a good connection with Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas.
The Giants have beaten the spread on five of their last seven matchups in Washington, though. Still, I’m going with Washington. According to PFF grades, Washington has a slightly better defense, and a much better offensive line.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5 AT BUFFALO BILLS
It is very rare that I bet against the same team three weeks in a row, but that happens to be the case here. I am fading the Bills once again, the team that made me win my biggest wager ever last season (over 6.5 regular season wins).
I have nothing against Buffalo; I just go where the value is. In this case, I think getting Seattle to lay just 2.5 points is good value.
The Bills defense has been a huge disappointment this season, and they have not done much better than Seattle’s unit. Buffalo has allowed less points per game, but the average PFF grades of the 11 Seattle defensive starters stands at 63.7 versus 58.4 for Buffalo. Based on those figures, it’s hard to claim that the Bills defense is clearly superior to Seattle’s.
On offense, no one is doubting the fact that the Seahawks are more powerful. They have the better quarterback for sure. At wide receiver, Buffalo has a good trio with Diggs-Brown-Beasley, but in my opinion Lockett and Metcalf are more dominant. Also, Seattle’s running game has been more convincing, although Buffalo’s ground game finally got going against the Patriots last week. Finally, the offensive lines are fairly comparable; I might even give a small edge to Seattle here.
The Seahawks are 7-1 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record. However, they have been a losing bet against the spread in their last four matchups on turf.
Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games as home underdogs.
Even though the Seahawks will be playing an early Sunday game as a West Coast team, I’m taking them as 2.5-point favorites.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
Last week, many people told me they appreciated the fact that I added unofficial picks to my weekly write-up. So back by popular demand, here are some leans:
Colts +2.5 vs Ravens (I came close from making it an official one-star pick, but didn’t pull the trigger. Philip Rivers scares me a little bit. The Colts defense against the run ranks 2nd in the NFL in terms of yards-per-carry average, which matches up well against Baltimore. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips in Indy, and hold an overall 1-10 ATS record over the past 11 meetings with the Colts. Many players from Baltimore won’t practice this week after being in close contact with Marlon Humphrey, who was diagnosed with covid-19);
Lions +4 at Vikings (I love betting weaker teams in a divisional road game coming off a big straight up loss. In this case, Detroit lost by 20 points last week. They are looking for revenge after losing both meetings versus Minnesota last year. Kenny Golladay is out, which hurts Detroit’s offense. The Vikings defense did surprisingly well last week against the Packers, despite fielding seven rookies. They might go back to normal and allow tons of yards/points this week);
Saints +5.5 at Bucs (Tampa loses one day of preparation due to playing the Monday nighter, but will be looking to avenge a Week 1 loss to those same Saints. New Orleans beat the spread in the last four meetings with Tampa and you cannot ignore the fact that they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs and 6-2 ATS on grass. The Saints could get both Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas this week);
Cards -4.5 vs Dolphins (We did not learn much about Tua last week since Miami’s defense and special teams won the game for them. Their defense has allowed just 11 points per game over the past three games, but I believe they are not that good and will revert to the mean. The Cards are another favorite coming off their bye week and have not had to travel in any of the last three weeks);
Under 50 points Broncos-Falcons (this total seems high considering I expect both offenses to have trouble moving the ball on offense);
Over 41.5 points Patriots-Jets (if we pretend like all Patriots and Jets games had a total of 41.5, the over would have gone 8-7. However, if you remove games where Cam Newton and Sam Darnold were out due to injuries, this record shoots up to 8-4. Some might argue the under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these two clubs, but I’m still backing the over).
Best of luck my friend!
Professor MJ
Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidBeaudoin79
Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ
https://www.youtube.com/c/ProfessorMJ/featured

Written Wednesday November 4th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
ALERT, ALERT, BIG RED ALERT!!!
We have a 5-star pick for just the third time this season!
Here is the record of those high-confidence predictions over the past three seasons (I started rating my picks in 2018 – too bad I didn’t do it in 2017 since we had great lucrative year!):
2020 SEASON: 2-0 RECORD
Week #1: Cards +7 at 49ers (win)
Week #7: Jets +13 vs Bills (win)
2019 SEASON: 2-2 RECORD
Week #5: 49ers -3.5 vs Browns (win)
Week #7: Bears -3 vs Saints (loss)
Week #14: Raiders +3 vs Titans (loss)
Week #17: Cowboys -12 vs Redskins (win)
2018 SEASON: 3-0 RECORD
Week #12: Ravens -10.5 vs Raiders (win)
Week #12: Bills +3.5 vs Jaguars (win)
Week #14: Saints -8 at Bucs (win)
OVERALL: 7-2 RECORD (77.8% WIN RATE)
Again, I feel obligated to remind you an important piece of advice: do not bet your house on a single bet. As a matter of fact, you shouldn’t bet more than 5% of your bankroll on one selection.
Before we get going, here is a quick review of the performance of this year’s NFL picks:
5 STARS: 2-0 record
4 STARS: 4-2-1 record
3 STARS: 6-7 record
2 STARS: 1-4 record
1 STAR: 4-2 record
OVERALL: 17-15-1 record (a 53.1% win rate)
While the overall winning percentage is decent, notice this interesting trend:
PICKS RATED 4-5 STARS: 6-2-1 record
PICKS RATED 1-2-3 STARS: 11-13 record
In other words, the best plays have been hitting at a higher rate.
All right, let’s get started!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): DENVER BRONCOS +4 AT ATLANTA FALCONS
Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. The Falcons will be benefiting from three extra days of rest since they played last week’s Thursday night game. Still, I absolutely love the Broncos in this matchup.
I even sent an alert to my mailing list subscribers and my Facebook/Twitter followers as early as Monday to let them know I was taking Denver. At the time, I bet the Broncos +4 points at -105 odds. I was convinced the line would only deteriorate as the week would progress and so far I’ve been right. At the time of writing (Wednesday morning), Pinnacle now has Denver +4 at -113 odds, while many bookies have dropped their line to 3.5. I believe it might even go as low as 3 points.
Despite some key injuries on defense, Denver remains very solid on that side of the ball. They have lost Jurrell Casey, Mike Purcell and Von Miller. Still, their 11 starters have an average 2020 ProFootballFocus grades of 68.3, while the league average is 61.6. They have a much better defense than Atlanta’s.
On offense, you might want to give the edge to the Falcons, though. However, Calvin Ridley is on the wrong side of questionable due to a foot injury he suffered last week. He is a big part of their offense.
The big question is how Drew Lock will perform this Sunday. He had a good first outing against the Titans. He got hurt in Week #2 and had two straight disappointing games upon his return. Indeed, he did not throw a single TD pass versus four picks in those two matchups.
Last week, trailing 24-to-3 early in the third quarter, it looked like Lock would finish with another poor performance, but he threw 3 TD passes in the second half to seal a stunning 31-30 comeback win over the Chargers. This game will certainly boost his confidence, and facing a suspect Falcons secondary should also help.
A few interesting trends:
The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games as road underdogs;
The Falcons are 0-4 ATS over their past four matches as home favorites.
Final note: it would help the Broncos if the coaching staff realized that Phillip Lindsay is a superior running back than Melvin Gordon. Give him more touches for crying out loud!
Lindsay has rushed for over 1,000 yards both in 2018 and 2019, while averaging between 4.5 and 6.4 yards per carry in each of his three years in the NFL. Meanwhile, Gordon averages 4.2 yards per rush and he doesn’t look as explosive.
I know that Gordon was given a fat contract, but you need to put your best players on the field if you want to win!
PICK #2 (3 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM -3 VS NEW YORK GIANTS
First of all, I tend to back favorites coming off their bye week, as they held a 98-60-5 ATS record during a four-year span.
Washington will be much more rested than New York. Not only are they coming off their bye, but the Giants fought hard against the Bucs last Monday night, which means they are getting one less day than usual to game plan and to rest for this upcoming divisional matchup.
Notice that Washington will be at home for a third consecutive week, and also a fifth time in six weeks! Their lone road game during this time period was in New York, which wasn’t a long trip.
Speaking of making a trip to New York, do I need to remind you that I love betting teams that have lost the first meeting between two division rivals? Back in Week 6, the Giants won a close call by a 20-to-19 score against Washington.
At times, Daniel Jones looks like a franchise quarterback. He makes good throws and you start thinking he is the future of this organization. And then he makes dumb mistakes that leaves you scratching your head. He just doesn’t seem to learn from his mistakes! He is a turnover machine.
I like what Kyle Allen has done this year. He has thrown four TD passes versus just one interception. Granted, he faced the Giants and the Cowboys, which are not among the league’s best defenses, but he still did his job. He has also completed close to 69% of his passes, which is impressive. He seems to have a good connection with Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas.
The Giants have beaten the spread on five of their last seven matchups in Washington, though. Still, I’m going with Washington. According to PFF grades, Washington has a slightly better defense, and a much better offensive line.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5 AT BUFFALO BILLS
It is very rare that I bet against the same team three weeks in a row, but that happens to be the case here. I am fading the Bills once again, the team that made me win my biggest wager ever last season (over 6.5 regular season wins).
I have nothing against Buffalo; I just go where the value is. In this case, I think getting Seattle to lay just 2.5 points is good value.
The Bills defense has been a huge disappointment this season, and they have not done much better than Seattle’s unit. Buffalo has allowed less points per game, but the average PFF grades of the 11 Seattle defensive starters stands at 63.7 versus 58.4 for Buffalo. Based on those figures, it’s hard to claim that the Bills defense is clearly superior to Seattle’s.
On offense, no one is doubting the fact that the Seahawks are more powerful. They have the better quarterback for sure. At wide receiver, Buffalo has a good trio with Diggs-Brown-Beasley, but in my opinion Lockett and Metcalf are more dominant. Also, Seattle’s running game has been more convincing, although Buffalo’s ground game finally got going against the Patriots last week. Finally, the offensive lines are fairly comparable; I might even give a small edge to Seattle here.
The Seahawks are 7-1 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record. However, they have been a losing bet against the spread in their last four matchups on turf.
Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games as home underdogs.
Even though the Seahawks will be playing an early Sunday game as a West Coast team, I’m taking them as 2.5-point favorites.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
Last week, many people told me they appreciated the fact that I added unofficial picks to my weekly write-up. So back by popular demand, here are some leans:
Colts +2.5 vs Ravens (I came close from making it an official one-star pick, but didn’t pull the trigger. Philip Rivers scares me a little bit. The Colts defense against the run ranks 2nd in the NFL in terms of yards-per-carry average, which matches up well against Baltimore. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips in Indy, and hold an overall 1-10 ATS record over the past 11 meetings with the Colts. Many players from Baltimore won’t practice this week after being in close contact with Marlon Humphrey, who was diagnosed with covid-19);
Lions +4 at Vikings (I love betting weaker teams in a divisional road game coming off a big straight up loss. In this case, Detroit lost by 20 points last week. They are looking for revenge after losing both meetings versus Minnesota last year. Kenny Golladay is out, which hurts Detroit’s offense. The Vikings defense did surprisingly well last week against the Packers, despite fielding seven rookies. They might go back to normal and allow tons of yards/points this week);
Saints +5.5 at Bucs (Tampa loses one day of preparation due to playing the Monday nighter, but will be looking to avenge a Week 1 loss to those same Saints. New Orleans beat the spread in the last four meetings with Tampa and you cannot ignore the fact that they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs and 6-2 ATS on grass. The Saints could get both Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas this week);
Cards -4.5 vs Dolphins (We did not learn much about Tua last week since Miami’s defense and special teams won the game for them. Their defense has allowed just 11 points per game over the past three games, but I believe they are not that good and will revert to the mean. The Cards are another favorite coming off their bye week and have not had to travel in any of the last three weeks);
Under 50 points Broncos-Falcons (this total seems high considering I expect both offenses to have trouble moving the ball on offense);
Over 41.5 points Patriots-Jets (if we pretend like all Patriots and Jets games had a total of 41.5, the over would have gone 8-7. However, if you remove games where Cam Newton and Sam Darnold were out due to injuries, this record shoots up to 8-4. Some might argue the under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these two clubs, but I’m still backing the over).
Best of luck my friend!
Professor MJ
Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidBeaudoin79
Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ
https://www.youtube.com/c/ProfessorMJ/featured

Written Thursday October 29th, 2020 at 7 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Yeah, baby!
The 5-star pick was a winner last week, lifting our record on such plays to a perfect 2-0 record this season!
Backing the Jets was a bold call, especially considering they were 0-6 against the spread (ATS) this year, but we took them at the right moment.
Notice how New York was a 13-point underdog when I took them last Thursday, while the line dropped all the way to 9.5 prior to kickoff. That was a huge indication it was a good value bet.
I’ve got four official picks for you this week, as well as five “leans”. Let’s get going!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): ATLANTA FALCONS +2 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Panthers were supposed to be one of the worst NFL teams this season, but surprised many by winning three of their first five games. They have now lost a couple of games in a row, and I would not be surprised if they go on a downward spiral.
It is still uncertain if Christian McCaffrey will return to the lineup, but even if he does it looks like his ankle is still not 100%.
Left tackle Russell Okung is a long shot to be available, which would be a big blow to this offensive line. I also believe losing Kawann Short for the rest of the year will have a big negative impact on Carolina’s defensive line. He was a key part of this defense.
Matt Ryan is the type of quarterback who struggles a lot when pressured, but thrives when given time to scan the field. Carolina ranks dead last in sacks with only six. I expect Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst to shine on Thursday Night Football.
I also like to pick teams who have lost to the same opponent earlier in the season. That’s the case of the Falcons who lost 23-16 against Carolina three weeks ago. It’s time for some payback!
Atlanta suffered another mind-boggling loss last week and I really expect them to lash out on their division rivals this Thursday. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the game by 10 points or more.
 
PICK #2 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +4 AT BUFFALO BILLS
After a hot start to the 2020 season, the Bills have cooled off in a big way. They were hammered 42-16 in Tennessee before getting stomped by the Chiefs despite a fairly close 26-17 score. Last week’s win over the Jets wasn’t convincing either.
What I like the most about this prediction is how well the Patriots match up against Buffalo. Let me explain.
First, let’s think about the case where New England has the ball. Their passing attack has been very inconsistent and they lack playmakers catching the ball. In order to have success, they must run the ball effectively, which happens to be Buffalo’s Achilles’ heel on defense (they rank 23rd in terms of yards-per-rush average).
Now, how about when the Bills are on offense? Buffalo has the sixth-most passing yards per game this year versus 29th in rushing yards per game. Guess what is New England’s strength on defense? That’s right, their pass defense with Stephon Gilmore and the two McCourtys leading the way.
Some might also argue that the Pats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Buffalo, but I’m not sure this stat is relevant with Tom Brady gone.
Without hesitation, I’m going with New England to keep this game close.
 
PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -4 AT CHICAGO BEARS
In today’s NFL, it is hard to win if you cannot throw the ball effectively, unless you are exceptionally good at running the ball like the Baltimore Ravens. Clearly, the Bears have a bad passing attack with Nick Foles posting 6 TD passes and 6 interceptions in five games. And their running game is just as bad: the team ranks last in rushing yards per game.
Somehow, Chicago rode their defense to go 5-2 thus far in 2020. However, everyone knows they are not that good. Even their defense started to show some signs of weaknesses last week against the Rams, who picked up 24 first downs and 371 total yards.
Relying on a stifling defense was a good recipe 20-30 years ago. It does not work as well in the modern NFL. Even then, the Bears defense is good, but it’s not a dominant force either. I do believe Sean Payton’s team will be able to move the ball offensively.
Here are some interesting trends:
Are you worried about how the Saints will perform on grass this weekend? They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass.
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups as road favorites, and 36-17 ATS in their past 53 road games overall.
Also notice that the Bears are playing on a shorter week due to playing the Monday nighter, a game in which they traveled all the way to Los Angeles.
 
PICK #4 (1 STAR): NEW YORK JETS +19.5 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
No need to discuss the mismatch on paper. We all know how much better the Chiefs are compared to the lowly Jets.
I’m going with the Jets for a couple of reasons:
Since the AFL-NFL merger, 13 teams have been favored by 20 points or more. Those teams have gone 13-0 straight up, but just 3-10 ATS. Technically, New York is not a 20-point underdog, but the line opened at 21.5.
I’ll mention the same stat as last week for those of you who didn’t see my Jets pick against the Bills. Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS (which is the case of the Jets in 2020). How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
Personally, I’m holding off before placing a bet on New York. I am waiting to obtain the injury status of wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman. If both are out, I need a point spread of at least 21 to bet the Jets. Hopefully, at least one of them suits up this Sunday, otherwise Sam Darnold may not have any reliable targets. Granted, I thought rookie Denzel Mims showed promise in his NFL debut against Buffalo last week.
The Jets also have four offensive linemen who are listed as questionable.
In other words, depending on who plays and how the point spread changes, I’ll make a decision once I have more information.
 
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans:
Bengals +6 vs Titans (Cincy’s five losses were by 3, 3, 4, 5 and 24-point margins, so they kept all games close except against the Ravens);
49ers +3 at Seahawks (tight divisional matchup and Seattle’s defense is horrendous);
Steelers +4 at Ravens (don’t like the fact that Baltimore is coming off its bye week though);
Dolphins +4 vs Rams (too much uncertainty due to Tua’s first start to bet, but the “rest” factor favors Miami in a big way. They are coming off their bye week and have been at home three straight weeks, while the Rams played last Monday night and are now traveling across the country);
Over 48.5 points Jets vs Chiefs.
I hope you enjoyed this post, go get your bookie man!!!
Professor MJ
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
FB: ProfessorMJ
www.professormj.com
https://youtu.be/NeppsXY9WRQ

Written Thursday October 29th, 2020 at 7 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Yeah, baby!
The 5-star pick was a winner last week, lifting our record on such plays to a perfect 2-0 record this season!
Backing the Jets was a bold call, especially considering they were 0-6 against the spread (ATS) this year, but we took them at the right moment.
Notice how New York was a 13-point underdog when I took them last Thursday, while the line dropped all the way to 9.5 prior to kickoff. That was a huge indication it was a good value bet.
I’ve got four official picks for you this week, as well as five “leans”. Let’s get going!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): ATLANTA FALCONS +2 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Panthers were supposed to be one of the worst NFL teams this season, but surprised many by winning three of their first five games. They have now lost a couple of games in a row, and I would not be surprised if they go on a downward spiral.
It is still uncertain if Christian McCaffrey will return to the lineup, but even if he does it looks like his ankle is still not 100%.
Left tackle Russell Okung is a long shot to be available, which would be a big blow to this offensive line. I also believe losing Kawann Short for the rest of the year will have a big negative impact on Carolina’s defensive line. He was a key part of this defense.
Matt Ryan is the type of quarterback who struggles a lot when pressured, but thrives when given time to scan the field. Carolina ranks dead last in sacks with only six. I expect Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst to shine on Thursday Night Football.
I also like to pick teams who have lost to the same opponent earlier in the season. That’s the case of the Falcons who lost 23-16 against Carolina three weeks ago. It’s time for some payback!
Atlanta suffered another mind-boggling loss last week and I really expect them to lash out on their division rivals this Thursday. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the game by 10 points or more.
 
PICK #2 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +4 AT BUFFALO BILLS
After a hot start to the 2020 season, the Bills have cooled off in a big way. They were hammered 42-16 in Tennessee before getting stomped by the Chiefs despite a fairly close 26-17 score. Last week’s win over the Jets wasn’t convincing either.
What I like the most about this prediction is how well the Patriots match up against Buffalo. Let me explain.
First, let’s think about the case where New England has the ball. Their passing attack has been very inconsistent and they lack playmakers catching the ball. In order to have success, they must run the ball effectively, which happens to be Buffalo’s Achilles’ heel on defense (they rank 23rd in terms of yards-per-rush average).
Now, how about when the Bills are on offense? Buffalo has the sixth-most passing yards per game this year versus 29th in rushing yards per game. Guess what is New England’s strength on defense? That’s right, their pass defense with Stephon Gilmore and the two McCourtys leading the way.
Some might also argue that the Pats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Buffalo, but I’m not sure this stat is relevant with Tom Brady gone.
Without hesitation, I’m going with New England to keep this game close.
 
PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -4 AT CHICAGO BEARS
In today’s NFL, it is hard to win if you cannot throw the ball effectively, unless you are exceptionally good at running the ball like the Baltimore Ravens. Clearly, the Bears have a bad passing attack with Nick Foles posting 6 TD passes and 6 interceptions in five games. And their running game is just as bad: the team ranks last in rushing yards per game.
Somehow, Chicago rode their defense to go 5-2 thus far in 2020. However, everyone knows they are not that good. Even their defense started to show some signs of weaknesses last week against the Rams, who picked up 24 first downs and 371 total yards.
Relying on a stifling defense was a good recipe 20-30 years ago. It does not work as well in the modern NFL. Even then, the Bears defense is good, but it’s not a dominant force either. I do believe Sean Payton’s team will be able to move the ball offensively.
Here are some interesting trends:
Are you worried about how the Saints will perform on grass this weekend? They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass.
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups as road favorites, and 36-17 ATS in their past 53 road games overall.
Also notice that the Bears are playing on a shorter week due to playing the Monday nighter, a game in which they traveled all the way to Los Angeles.
 
PICK #4 (1 STAR): NEW YORK JETS +19.5 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
No need to discuss the mismatch on paper. We all know how much better the Chiefs are compared to the lowly Jets.
I’m going with the Jets for a couple of reasons:
Since the AFL-NFL merger, 13 teams have been favored by 20 points or more. Those teams have gone 13-0 straight up, but just 3-10 ATS. Technically, New York is not a 20-point underdog, but the line opened at 21.5.
I’ll mention the same stat as last week for those of you who didn’t see my Jets pick against the Bills. Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS (which is the case of the Jets in 2020). How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
Personally, I’m holding off before placing a bet on New York. I am waiting to obtain the injury status of wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman. If both are out, I need a point spread of at least 21 to bet the Jets. Hopefully, at least one of them suits up this Sunday, otherwise Sam Darnold may not have any reliable targets. Granted, I thought rookie Denzel Mims showed promise in his NFL debut against Buffalo last week.
The Jets also have four offensive linemen who are listed as questionable.
In other words, depending on who plays and how the point spread changes, I’ll make a decision once I have more information.
 
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans:
Bengals +6 vs Titans (Cincy’s five losses were by 3, 3, 4, 5 and 24-point margins, so they kept all games close except against the Ravens);
49ers +3 at Seahawks (tight divisional matchup and Seattle’s defense is horrendous);
Steelers +4 at Ravens (don’t like the fact that Baltimore is coming off its bye week though);
Dolphins +4 vs Rams (too much uncertainty due to Tua’s first start to bet, but the “rest” factor favors Miami in a big way. They are coming off their bye week and have been at home three straight weeks, while the Rams played last Monday night and are now traveling across the country);
Over 48.5 points Jets vs Chiefs.
I hope you enjoyed this post, go get your bookie man!!!
Professor MJ
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
FB: ProfessorMJ
www.professormj.com
https://youtu.be/NeppsXY9WRQ

Written Thursday October 22nd, 2020 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
This week we’ve got just our second 5-star play of the 2020 season!
The only other one was Arizona +7 against the 49ers in Week #1, a bet that easily covered since the Cards won the game straight up by a margin of four points.
Such picks rated 5 stars have done very well since I started this “Professor MJ” brand a few years ago.
That being said, I’m not suggesting to bet your house on it. You’ll never hear me talk about “the lock of the century” or “100% guaranteed winner” or any similar bull$$hit. There is always risk involved. Bet at your own risk and never bet an amount that you cannot afford to lose.
PICK #1 (5 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +13 VS BUFFALO BILLS
Wow, picking the lowly Jets as a five-star play is pretty bold, isn’t it?
Adam Gase’s team is 0-6 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this year.
Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS. How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
I like the Jets for many other reasons.
The rest factor is in favor of New York since the Bills are coming off a Monday night game. Also, NFL teams tend to do very well in the rematch against a division rival after losing the first meeting of the season. In this case, Buffalo won 27-17 in Week #1, which makes the Jets a good play based on this betting angle.
Finally, the Bills have been struggling a lot recently. They blew a 25-point lead against the Rams before escaping with the win, thanks to a questionable pass interference penalty on fourth down in the final drive. They got hammered 42-16 against a depleted Titans team two weeks ago.
Last week, losing 26-17 against the Chiefs may not look bad on paper, but if you watched the game you know what I’m talking about. The Bills were out of sync on offense, where Josh Allen looked more like the 2018 or 2019 version of himself. And their defense was gashed on the ground by allowing 5.3 yards per carry. This unit was supposed to be among the league’s best, but they an average of 28 points per game.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has a shot to be back under center. He is a big improvement over Joe Flacco, and he would finally have some weapons around him with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and maybe rookie Denzel Mims who could make his NFL debut.
Some bookies have already lowered their spread to 12, but at the time I’m making this video BetOnline still has 13. This is where I placed my bet. I really like New York to cover in this one.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -9.5 AT DENVER BRONCOS
Over the last nine meetings between these two clubs, Kansas City holds an 8-1 record ATS. If you focus on games played in Denver only, the Chiefs have beaten the spread on six consecutive occasions.
Sure, Kansas City loses one day of rest after playing the Monday nighter. But in my opinion, elite teams fare well when facing adversity. They are a well-coached team and it won’t affect them that much.
The Broncos are coming off a nice upset win in New England. Quarterback Drew Lock made two incredibly bad decisions that almost gave the game away, but he should be thankful that his defense saved the day.
Denver’s offense struggled most of the day and couldn’t score more than 18 points despite the Pats turning the ball over three times. They won’t be able to keep up with KC’s offense, who are unlikely to take them lightly, considering it’s a divisional game.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +4 VS TAMPA BAY BUCS
I feel like the public is getting overexcited following Tampa’s convincing win over the Packers. It was indeed an impressive outing where emotions were high, which makes this non-conference matchup a trap game for them.
Las Vegas is also coming off their bye week, which is always a nice advantage.
Tampa’s top three receivers (Evans-Godwin-Miller) are all likely to play, but are nursing injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea for the rest of the year was a big blow and is an underrated loss for this squad. They also have three good guys on defense who are listed as questionable: LB Lavonte David and DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston.
The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs, the Saints and the Panthers, while losing to Buffalo and New England. In other words, there wasn’t a single easy opponent (Carolina was expected to be weak, but they are off to a nice start).
I’m taking the Raiders as home underdogs here.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Seattle is coming off their bye week, while the Cards lose one day of preparation after playing the Monday night game. Arizona also had to travel on three straight weeks prior to this week, which isn’t easy.
I’m pretty sure the Seahawks remember the last time they faced Kliff Kingsbury’s squad: a 27-13 home loss in Week #16 that hurt their chances of clinching a first-round bye. Payback time!
Over the last 11 meetings between these two rivals, the road team has a 9-1-1 record ATS. Please note that the “under” was a winning bet in each of the last five matchups.
As mentioned last week, I also like to back road favorites coming off a bye week. A reminder that such teams showed a jaw-dropping 15-1-2 ATS record over four seasons (they went 1-1 last week though).
Best of luck with your plays and I’ll see you again next week!
Professor MJ
https://www.youtube.com/c/ProfessorMJ/featured
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
FB: ProfessorMJ
www.professormj.com

Written Thursday October 22nd, 2020 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
This week we’ve got just our second 5-star play of the 2020 season!
The only other one was Arizona +7 against the 49ers in Week #1, a bet that easily covered since the Cards won the game straight up by a margin of four points.
Such picks rated 5 stars have done very well since I started this “Professor MJ” brand a few years ago.
That being said, I’m not suggesting to bet your house on it. You’ll never hear me talk about “the lock of the century” or “100% guaranteed winner” or any similar bull$$hit. There is always risk involved. Bet at your own risk and never bet an amount that you cannot afford to lose.
PICK #1 (5 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +13 VS BUFFALO BILLS
Wow, picking the lowly Jets as a five-star play is pretty bold, isn’t it?
Adam Gase’s team is 0-6 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this year.
Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS. How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
I like the Jets for many other reasons.
The rest factor is in favor of New York since the Bills are coming off a Monday night game. Also, NFL teams tend to do very well in the rematch against a division rival after losing the first meeting of the season. In this case, Buffalo won 27-17 in Week #1, which makes the Jets a good play based on this betting angle.
Finally, the Bills have been struggling a lot recently. They blew a 25-point lead against the Rams before escaping with the win, thanks to a questionable pass interference penalty on fourth down in the final drive. They got hammered 42-16 against a depleted Titans team two weeks ago.
Last week, losing 26-17 against the Chiefs may not look bad on paper, but if you watched the game you know what I’m talking about. The Bills were out of sync on offense, where Josh Allen looked more like the 2018 or 2019 version of himself. And their defense was gashed on the ground by allowing 5.3 yards per carry. This unit was supposed to be among the league’s best, but they an average of 28 points per game.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has a shot to be back under center. He is a big improvement over Joe Flacco, and he would finally have some weapons around him with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and maybe rookie Denzel Mims who could make his NFL debut.
Some bookies have already lowered their spread to 12, but at the time I’m making this video BetOnline still has 13. This is where I placed my bet. I really like New York to cover in this one.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -9.5 AT DENVER BRONCOS
Over the last nine meetings between these two clubs, Kansas City holds an 8-1 record ATS. If you focus on games played in Denver only, the Chiefs have beaten the spread on six consecutive occasions.
Sure, Kansas City loses one day of rest after playing the Monday nighter. But in my opinion, elite teams fare well when facing adversity. They are a well-coached team and it won’t affect them that much.
The Broncos are coming off a nice upset win in New England. Quarterback Drew Lock made two incredibly bad decisions that almost gave the game away, but he should be thankful that his defense saved the day.
Denver’s offense struggled most of the day and couldn’t score more than 18 points despite the Pats turning the ball over three times. They won’t be able to keep up with KC’s offense, who are unlikely to take them lightly, considering it’s a divisional game.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +4 VS TAMPA BAY BUCS
I feel like the public is getting overexcited following Tampa’s convincing win over the Packers. It was indeed an impressive outing where emotions were high, which makes this non-conference matchup a trap game for them.
Las Vegas is also coming off their bye week, which is always a nice advantage.
Tampa’s top three receivers (Evans-Godwin-Miller) are all likely to play, but are nursing injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea for the rest of the year was a big blow and is an underrated loss for this squad. They also have three good guys on defense who are listed as questionable: LB Lavonte David and DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston.
The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs, the Saints and the Panthers, while losing to Buffalo and New England. In other words, there wasn’t a single easy opponent (Carolina was expected to be weak, but they are off to a nice start).
I’m taking the Raiders as home underdogs here.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Seattle is coming off their bye week, while the Cards lose one day of preparation after playing the Monday night game. Arizona also had to travel on three straight weeks prior to this week, which isn’t easy.
I’m pretty sure the Seahawks remember the last time they faced Kliff Kingsbury’s squad: a 27-13 home loss in Week #16 that hurt their chances of clinching a first-round bye. Payback time!
Over the last 11 meetings between these two rivals, the road team has a 9-1-1 record ATS. Please note that the “under” was a winning bet in each of the last five matchups.
As mentioned last week, I also like to back road favorites coming off a bye week. A reminder that such teams showed a jaw-dropping 15-1-2 ATS record over four seasons (they went 1-1 last week though).
Best of luck with your plays and I’ll see you again next week!
Professor MJ
https://www.youtube.com/c/ProfessorMJ/featured
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
FB: ProfessorMJ
www.professormj.com

Written Thursday October 22nd, 2020 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
This week we’ve got just our second 5-star play of the 2020 season!
The only other one was Arizona +7 against the 49ers in Week #1, a bet that easily covered since the Cards won the game straight up by a margin of four points.
Such picks rated 5 stars have done very well since I started this “Professor MJ” brand a few years ago.
That being said, I’m not suggesting to bet your house on it. You’ll never hear me talk about “the lock of the century” or “100% guaranteed winner” or any similar bull$$hit. There is always risk involved. Bet at your own risk and never bet an amount that you cannot afford to lose.
PICK #1 (5 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +13 VS BUFFALO BILLS
Wow, picking the lowly Jets as a five-star play is pretty bold, isn’t it?
Adam Gase’s team is 0-6 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this year.
Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS. How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
I like the Jets for many other reasons.
The rest factor is in favor of New York since the Bills are coming off a Monday night game. Also, NFL teams tend to do very well in the rematch against a division rival after losing the first meeting of the season. In this case, Buffalo won 27-17 in Week #1, which makes the Jets a good play based on this betting angle.
Finally, the Bills have been struggling a lot recently. They blew a 25-point lead against the Rams before escaping with the win, thanks to a questionable pass interference penalty on fourth down in the final drive. They got hammered 42-16 against a depleted Titans team two weeks ago.
Last week, losing 26-17 against the Chiefs may not look bad on paper, but if you watched the game you know what I’m talking about. The Bills were out of sync on offense, where Josh Allen looked more like the 2018 or 2019 version of himself. And their defense was gashed on the ground by allowing 5.3 yards per carry. This unit was supposed to be among the league’s best, but they an average of 28 points per game.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has a shot to be back under center. He is a big improvement over Joe Flacco, and he would finally have some weapons around him with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and maybe rookie Denzel Mims who could make his NFL debut.
Some bookies have already lowered their spread to 12, but at the time I’m making this video BetOnline still has 13. This is where I placed my bet. I really like New York to cover in this one.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -9.5 AT DENVER BRONCOS
Over the last nine meetings between these two clubs, Kansas City holds an 8-1 record ATS. If you focus on games played in Denver only, the Chiefs have beaten the spread on six consecutive occasions.
Sure, Kansas City loses one day of rest after playing the Monday nighter. But in my opinion, elite teams fare well when facing adversity. They are a well-coached team and it won’t affect them that much.
The Broncos are coming off a nice upset win in New England. Quarterback Drew Lock made two incredibly bad decisions that almost gave the game away, but he should be thankful that his defense saved the day.
Denver’s offense struggled most of the day and couldn’t score more than 18 points despite the Pats turning the ball over three times. They won’t be able to keep up with KC’s offense, who are unlikely to take them lightly, considering it’s a divisional game.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +4 VS TAMPA BAY BUCS
I feel like the public is getting overexcited following Tampa’s convincing win over the Packers. It was indeed an impressive outing where emotions were high, which makes this non-conference matchup a trap game for them.
Las Vegas is also coming off their bye week, which is always a nice advantage.
Tampa’s top three receivers (Evans-Godwin-Miller) are all likely to play, but are nursing injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea for the rest of the year was a big blow and is an underrated loss for this squad. They also have three good guys on defense who are listed as questionable: LB Lavonte David and DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston.
The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs, the Saints and the Panthers, while losing to Buffalo and New England. In other words, there wasn’t a single easy opponent (Carolina was expected to be weak, but they are off to a nice start).
I’m taking the Raiders as home underdogs here.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Seattle is coming off their bye week, while the Cards lose one day of preparation after playing the Monday night game. Arizona also had to travel on three straight weeks prior to this week, which isn’t easy.
I’m pretty sure the Seahawks remember the last time they faced Kliff Kingsbury’s squad: a 27-13 home loss in Week #16 that hurt their chances of clinching a first-round bye. Payback time!
Over the last 11 meetings between these two rivals, the road team has a 9-1-1 record ATS. Please note that the “under” was a winning bet in each of the last five matchups.
As mentioned last week, I also like to back road favorites coming off a bye week. A reminder that such teams showed a jaw-dropping 15-1-2 ATS record over four seasons (they went 1-1 last week though).
Best of luck with your plays and I’ll see you again next week!
Professor MJ
https://www.youtube.com/c/ProfessorMJ/featured
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
FB: ProfessorMJ
www.professormj.com

Written Thursday October 15th, 2020 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
The picks went a perfect 3-0 last week!
Let’s keep rolllllling!#D
PICK #1 (4 STARS): GREEN BAY PACKERS PICK’EM AT TAMPA BAY BUCS
Over a four-year period, road favorites coming off a bye week posted an impressive 17-2-2 record against the spread (ATS). That’s impressive! Granted, Tampa is coming off a Thursday night game, but the Packers still benefit from four more days of rest.
Green Bay has been playing at an extremely high level, especially their offense that has been firing on all cylinders despite playing most of the year without one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Davante Adams. He is likely to be back on the field this Sunday. Aaron Rodgers’ offense has scored between 30 and 43 points in all of their four matchups.
Take a look at Green Bay’s margins of victories this year: 9, 21, 7 and 14. In other words, the closest contest was a 7-point game.
Meanwhile, I’m not sold on the Bucs yet. They hold a good 3-2 record, but they seem to lack consistency. Their offense looks great at times, but stalls and turns the ball over too often. And did you see Tom Brady last week who thought there was another down left when in fact the game was over? That’s a rookie mistake.
The Packers were 2.5-point favorites last Tuesday before the line dropped to 0 on Thursday despite Davante Adams and nose tackle Kenny Clark being upgraded from questionable to probable. Thank you very much for the price reduction, I’ll take the Packers!
PICK #2 (3 STARS): DETROIT LIONS -3 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
You guessed it, I’m backing another road favorite coming off its bye week: the Detroit Lions. The extra time to rest and gameplan for this matchup will be more than welcome for Matt Patricia’s squad.
Before the season began, the Jags were projected to be the worst team in the league, according to win totals set by sportsbooks. They surprised many, including myself, by kicking off the 2020 season with a 27-to-20 win over the Colts before losing a close call at Tennessee.
Since then, things have been going downhill for Jacksonville. They lost by 18, 8 and 16 points in their next three games. Want to hear a stunning fact? The three teams that beat Jacksonville hold a combined 4-10 record this year. That means that if you remove the wins over the Jags, these clubs had just one win versus 10 losses against the rest of the league! And yet, Jacksonville went on to lose by an average of 14 points against those weak teams. That’s horrendous!
The Lions were a team that I thought might surprise NFL fans this season. They have not done very well thus far with a 1-3 record.
Their offense is more than respectable with Matthew Stafford at quarterback who has been super consistent from year to year. They also feature one of the most underrated wide receivers (Kenny Golladay), a great tight end prospect (T.J. Hockenson) and an acceptable trio of running backs.
Their defense had acquired many players on the free agent market, including Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins and Desmond Trufant. And they also took cornerback Jeffrey Okudah with the third overall pick in the draft. This unit has been a disappointment thus far in 2020 by allowing a minimum of 23 points in each meeting.
Considering the offseason was shortened due to the coronavirus, teams with many new faces were at a disadvantage. Maybe that’s why the Lions defense is taking more time to gel. I do believe they could improve substantially until the remainder of the year.
For these reasons, I’m taking a team that has performed below its true value so far this year, the Detroit Lions, facing a team that has shown three super bad outcomes in a row.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS +3 AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Yes, my top pick last week was Pittsburgh, but this time I’m fading them.
After getting clobbered by the Ravens in their opener, the Browns have rebounded nicely with four straight wins. Their average margin of victory has been 9.75 points.
Cleveland’s victories came against teams whose combined record is 7-12-1. While that’s not great, take a look at Pittsburgh’s opponents: the Giants, the Broncos, the Texans and the Eagles. Those teams have compiled an atrocious 3-15-1 record. What makes matters worse is that the Steelers’ largest margin of victory in those four meetings was just 10 points.
I especially like the progress shown by the Browns. They are getting more and more comfortable with their new head coach, Kevin Stefanski.
I was super impressed with the way their offense moved the ball so easily against the stout Colts defense. Prior to this match, Indy had allowed an average of just 14 points per game. The Browns managed to put 32 points on the board. Granted, 9 of them came from the defense but the offense was able to sustain drives all afternoon.
The Steelers defense was supposed to be among the top units in the league. They have performed well under expectations thus far. They allowed 29 points to the depleted Eagles offense last week, after surrendering 21 points both against the Texans and Broncos. In the latter case, Denver needed to replace Drew Lock early in the game and went with Jeff Driskel the rest of the way.
One thing worries me about this pick, though: the Steelers will be at home for the fifth consecutive week! They have not had to travel much and are therefore well-rested.
Still, I like the Browns to win the game outright, or at least keep this divisional matchup very close.
Enjoy football this weekend!
Professor MJ (www.professormj.com)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCszNw7lw10C53SurBFmwBVQ
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
 
 

My new dog Cooper brought me luck! 3 for 3!

As promised last week, here is an update about BetOnline’s Mega Contest:
I did not win the $4,000 quarterly prize awarded to the top contestant through four weeks. ?
I dropped from 2nd to 24th place (out of 2671 participants) after posting a disappointing 2-3 record last week.
Still in good shape for season prizes, which are given to the top 100 contestants. Let’s keep grinding!
Let’s now move on to my favorite plays in Week #5!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The better a team is, the more they benefit from additional rest. That’s not theory, but something that was verified through statistical analyses. It also makes sense from a logical standpoint, as these teams tend to make better use of the extra time for game planning.
That being said, the Steelers are in great position here. Not only are they coming off a bye week, but they will be at home for the fourth straight week! Indeed, they hosted the Broncos and Texans in Weeks #2 and #3 before resting last week.
Over a four-year period, home favorites coming off a bye week have posted a 26-20-2 record against the spread (ATS).
Pittsburgh has very few injured players too! Other than right tackle Zach Banner and backup offensive lineman Stefen Wisniewski, there’s no notable players who are banged up. Although JuJu Smith-Schuster and cornerback Joe Haden just popped on the injury list today, but they seem to have a fair chance of suiting up this Sunday.
Philly, on the other hand, is dealing with lots of injuries. I won’t list them all, but the situation on the offensive line is particularly worrisome. That’s very bad news when facing a ferocious defense like Pittsburgh! Jason Peters and Isaac Seumalo are officially out for this game, while Lane Johnson is questionable.
I’m taking the Steelers to handle their state rival by more than a touchdown.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS -7 AT NEW YORK JETS
When will the Jets finally fire Adam Gase? It seems super obvious that he needs to go. He’s a horrible head coach. I believe Sam Darnold has talent, but he’s been regressing under Gase, who was supposed to be an offensive mastermind. I could see Darnold flourishing once Gase is gone, or if Darnold goes to another team.
The Jets are not playing like a team. They are blowing assignments and taking way too many penalties. They are not disciplined and repeatedly make dumb things on the field. Again, it all starts with the head coach to fix those issues.
As long as Gase is the leader, fading the Jets sounds like a good plan.
Both of the Jets’ tackles are uncertain to play this weekend: George Fant and Mekhi Becton. Even their backup, Chuma Edoga, is banged up.
Joe Flacco will be under center for the Jets following Darnold’s shoulder injury. Over the past five seasons, Flacco has thrown 70 TD passes versus 51 interceptions. That’s not a good ratio at all. He’s 35 years old and unlikely to be the savior.
Arizona is coming off two consecutive losses to ordinary teams after beating the 49ers and the Redskins. I do believe they will rebound; they simply cannot afford to lose this game and won’t take it lightly.
The rest factor is not favoring the Cards, though. They will be playing an early game on the East Coast, but such teams have been beating the spread at a higher rate over the recent years. The Jets benefit from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. However, bad teams don’t benefit as much from extra rest compared to elite ones.
I’m banking on Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins to hammer the Jets, which might finally put an end to Adam Gase’s tenure as the Jets’ head coach.
PICK #3 (1 STAR): NEW YORK GIANTS +9.5 AT DALLAS COWBOYS
I can’t say I’m overly confident about this play, but there are so many betting angles pointing in the Giants’ direction that I can’t ignore them.
First, the bad news. New York’s offense has been very anemic this season. They haven’t scored more than 16 points in any game, while averaging less than 12 points per match! That’s awful!
The Giants will also be playing a third road game out of their past four meetings, including a long trip to Los Angeles last week.
Now, the good news. Here are two betting strategies I’ve been following recently who both support taking the Giants this week:
a) Bet a bad team facing a divisional opponent on the road when coming off a loss by more than seven points (60-40-2 ATS record);
b) Bet a bad team who is established as a road underdog by more than seven points if they are coming off at least four straight games in which they were underdogs (63-45-1 ATS record.
I also like the revenge factor here. Last year, the Cowboys handled the Giants easily in both matchups: 35-17 in Dallas, 37-18 in New York.
You’ve also probably heard of the rash of injuries in Dallas. I especially like to focus on offensive line injuries since they play a key role and are undervalued by the general public. Center Joe Looney is out, as well as right tackle Cam Erving. Also, the status of left tackle Tyron Smith is still up in the air.
Some might argue the Cowboys will be super motivated after such an embarrassing loss to the Browns. Fair enough, and to be honest that’s one of my main concerns when picking the Giants here. But the counterargument would be that Dallas is playing on their heels and don’t have much confidence right now.
Personally, I’m tempted to buy half a point and grab the Giants at +10 points. That would make me feel more comfortable with this pick.
Best of luck, my friends!!!
Professor MJ
PS Following the death of our 9-year old Golden Retriever named Player on May 11, my family and I have decided to get a new one. Here is the very first picture of him! We're going to name him Cooper. Really excited about getting him in 37 days from now!

As promised last week, here is an update about BetOnline’s Mega Contest:
I did not win the $4,000 quarterly prize awarded to the top contestant through four weeks. ?
I dropped from 2nd to 24th place (out of 2671 participants) after posting a disappointing 2-3 record last week.
Still in good shape for season prizes, which are given to the top 100 contestants. Let’s keep grinding!
Let’s now move on to my favorite plays in Week #5!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The better a team is, the more they benefit from additional rest. That’s not theory, but something that was verified through statistical analyses. It also makes sense from a logical standpoint, as these teams tend to make better use of the extra time for game planning.
That being said, the Steelers are in great position here. Not only are they coming off a bye week, but they will be at home for the fourth straight week! Indeed, they hosted the Broncos and Texans in Weeks #2 and #3 before resting last week.
Over a four-year period, home favorites coming off a bye week have posted a 26-20-2 record against the spread (ATS).
Pittsburgh has very few injured players too! Other than right tackle Zach Banner and backup offensive lineman Stefen Wisniewski, there’s no notable players who are banged up. Although JuJu Smith-Schuster and cornerback Joe Haden just popped on the injury list today, but they seem to have a fair chance of suiting up this Sunday.
Philly, on the other hand, is dealing with lots of injuries. I won’t list them all, but the situation on the offensive line is particularly worrisome. That’s very bad news when facing a ferocious defense like Pittsburgh! Jason Peters and Isaac Seumalo are officially out for this game, while Lane Johnson is questionable.
I’m taking the Steelers to handle their state rival by more than a touchdown.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS -7 AT NEW YORK JETS
When will the Jets finally fire Adam Gase? It seems super obvious that he needs to go. He’s a horrible head coach. I believe Sam Darnold has talent, but he’s been regressing under Gase, who was supposed to be an offensive mastermind. I could see Darnold flourishing once Gase is gone, or if Darnold goes to another team.
The Jets are not playing like a team. They are blowing assignments and taking way too many penalties. They are not disciplined and repeatedly make dumb things on the field. Again, it all starts with the head coach to fix those issues.
As long as Gase is the leader, fading the Jets sounds like a good plan.
Both of the Jets’ tackles are uncertain to play this weekend: George Fant and Mekhi Becton. Even their backup, Chuma Edoga, is banged up.
Joe Flacco will be under center for the Jets following Darnold’s shoulder injury. Over the past five seasons, Flacco has thrown 70 TD passes versus 51 interceptions. That’s not a good ratio at all. He’s 35 years old and unlikely to be the savior.
Arizona is coming off two consecutive losses to ordinary teams after beating the 49ers and the Redskins. I do believe they will rebound; they simply cannot afford to lose this game and won’t take it lightly.
The rest factor is not favoring the Cards, though. They will be playing an early game on the East Coast, but such teams have been beating the spread at a higher rate over the recent years. The Jets benefit from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. However, bad teams don’t benefit as much from extra rest compared to elite ones.
I’m banking on Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins to hammer the Jets, which might finally put an end to Adam Gase’s tenure as the Jets’ head coach.
PICK #3 (1 STAR): NEW YORK GIANTS +9.5 AT DALLAS COWBOYS
I can’t say I’m overly confident about this play, but there are so many betting angles pointing in the Giants’ direction that I can’t ignore them.
First, the bad news. New York’s offense has been very anemic this season. They haven’t scored more than 16 points in any game, while averaging less than 12 points per match! That’s awful!
The Giants will also be playing a third road game out of their past four meetings, including a long trip to Los Angeles last week.
Now, the good news. Here are two betting strategies I’ve been following recently who both support taking the Giants this week:
a) Bet a bad team facing a divisional opponent on the road when coming off a loss by more than seven points (60-40-2 ATS record);
b) Bet a bad team who is established as a road underdog by more than seven points if they are coming off at least four straight games in which they were underdogs (63-45-1 ATS record.
I also like the revenge factor here. Last year, the Cowboys handled the Giants easily in both matchups: 35-17 in Dallas, 37-18 in New York.
You’ve also probably heard of the rash of injuries in Dallas. I especially like to focus on offensive line injuries since they play a key role and are undervalued by the general public. Center Joe Looney is out, as well as right tackle Cam Erving. Also, the status of left tackle Tyron Smith is still up in the air.
Some might argue the Cowboys will be super motivated after such an embarrassing loss to the Browns. Fair enough, and to be honest that’s one of my main concerns when picking the Giants here. But the counterargument would be that Dallas is playing on their heels and don’t have much confidence right now.
Personally, I’m tempted to buy half a point and grab the Giants at +10 points. That would make me feel more comfortable with this pick.
Best of luck, my friends!!!
Professor MJ
PS Following the death of our 9-year old Golden Retriever named Player on May 11, my family and I have decided to get a new one. Here is the very first picture of him! We're going to name him Cooper. Really excited about getting him in 37 days from now!

If you have bet the “over” in every single NFL game in 2020, you are a rich man!
Indeed, the “over” holds an impressive 30-18 record so far; that’s a 62.5% win percentage.
This week, I’m going to mix some “regular” picks against the spread with some plays on totals, and also an additional pick where I’m taking a team in the first quarter.
Without further ado, let’s review my value bets for Week #4 in the NFL!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +7 AT TAMPA BAY BUCS
I do not like picking West Coast teams playing an early Sunday game, but I’ll make an exception here.
The Chargers have been involved in tight games thus far this season, thanks to their stout defense. Their most impressive game might have been one of their two losses: an overtime thriller against the Chiefs. Did you see what Kansas City did to Baltimore last week? They CRUSHED them. Knowing that the Chargers could have beaten them reinforces my confidence that Los Angeles can manage to cover the 7-point spread in Tampa.
Meanwhile, the Bucs have looked good recently, but they beat two weak teams: the Carolina Panthers and the injury-riddled Denver Broncos. In Week #1, they lost by 11 points to the Saints.
My level of confidence decreases due to injuries, as the Chargers seem more decimated than Tampa Bay. The Bucs will be missing star wide receiver Chris Godwin, and maybe running back Leonard Fournette and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting.
For Los Angeles, defensive end Melvin Ingram is out, as well as starting CB Chris Harris. That hurts, even though Desmond King is a very capable replacement for Harris.
The Chargers had also already lost center Mike Pouncey, and now they have Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner listed as questionable. Backups Trey Pipkins and Forrest Lamp both received awful ProFootballFocus grades last week: 37.5 and 44.8, respectively. That’s brutal!
I believe the public is overreacting to last week’s results. Sure, the Chargers lost to the lowly Panthers, but they were killed by four turnovers. They dominated total yardage, total first downs, and even converted 10-of-15 third down situations. Tampa Bay cruised to an easy 28-to-10 victory over the Broncos, who were missing TONS of starters at key positions.
If not for the Chargers injuries, I’d rate this play five stars.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): CHICAGO BEARS +0.5 FIRST QUARTER VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts cruised to an easy 36-7 win over the Jets last week. That sets up the table nicely for a soft start in Chicago this week, which is why I’m banking on the Bears to at least tie the first quarter against Indy.
Moreover, the Colts will be missing two receivers: Parris Campbell and rookie Michael Pittman. I don’t trust Zach Pascal too much, and T.Y. Hilton has not done much damage this year with 3 or 4 receptions in each game thus far. Indy’s secondary has also been hit by the injury bug with safety Malik Hooker out and CB Rock Ya-Sin listed as questionable.
Meanwhile, the Bears are relatively healthy, except for backup RB Tarik Cohen.
I’m betting Chicago to start the game strong. Replacing Mitchell Trubisky by Nick Foles at quarterback is like a breath of fresh air for the Bears.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +7 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
I would find it very uncomfortable to bet a team to win by 8 points or more against a Bill Belichick-coached squad. He just finds ways to stop your best players, and force you to play to your weaknesses.
We had another perfect example last week. Darren Waller is clearly the Raiders’ top receiving target. He looked unstoppable against the Saints, where he caught 12 passes for over 100 yards. The Pats did everything they could to stop him: he was limited to two receptions for a meager 9 yards. They forced Derek Carr to throw to other receivers, and their offense ended up struggling to find a good rhythm.
I’m betting that Bill Belichick reviewed very carefully the Chiefs-Ravens game and he won’t let that happen to his defense. He will take notes on how the Chargers were able to slow down Kansas City’s high-powered offense back in Week #2.
Here are a couple more arguments favoring this play. First, the Chiefs lose one day of preparation following their Monday night matchup with Baltimore. Also, the Pats will be looking to avenge a 23-to-16 home loss to the Chiefs last year in Week 14.
New England center David Andrews will miss the game and he will be replaced by an unproven guy whose name I cannot pronounce (Hjalte Froholdt). That’s a source of concern.
The Chiefs could be without stud defensive tackle Chris Jones and right guard Andrew Wylie. Their status is still up in the air.
I like the Pats to cover the 7-point spread.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): MIAMI DOLPHINS +6.5 VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Miami has the rest factor going their way, as they will be benefiting from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. Also, Seattle will be traveling through three time zones to play a game that will feel like 10 AM Pacific Time at kickoff this Sunday.
This matchup also has all the looks of a trap game for the Seahawks. They are coming off big meetings against the Patriots and the Cowboys. Facing a mediocre Dolphins team clearly does not look super enticing for Seattle.
The line opened at 6.5, then moved to 7 points after the Sunday games. Sharp money backed the Dolphins pretty hard, which forced sportsbooks to go back to 6.5. If the line goes back to 7, I’m going to add more money to my initial investment on Miami.
The Seahawks have quite a few guys whose status for Sunday is uncertain: running backs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, cornerback Quinton Dunbar, tight end Will Dissly, but most importantly safety Jamal Adams and offensive linemen Mike Iupati and Ethan Pocic.
On Miami’s side, the only noteworthy player on the injury list is cornerback Byron Jones, who could be back after missing the Week #3 meeting with the Jaguars.
The Dolphins are coming off a convincing win in Jacksonville as 3-point underdogs. Prior to this victory, they had lost to a couple of very tough opponents: Buffalo and New England. In both cases, they kept the score close.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a true warrior and he won’t have trouble putting points on the board against a defense that has allowed an average of 29 points this year.
BETS ON TOTALS
Here is the average number of points scored in each of the three weeks so far this season: 47.4, 53.3 and 52.2. Overall, 51 points have been scored on average per matchup. That’s the highest scoring the league has ever seen through three weeks.
As a comparison, the average line on totals in Week #4 is currently 49.8. I don’t see any reason why scoring should go down. After a rocky offseason due to covid-19, defensive tackling might improve, but offenses are finding their rhythm and timing.
Here are four games where I would bet the over:
-Over 43 Colts-Bears
-Over 51 Cards-Lions
-Over 53.5 Seahawks-Dolphins
-Over 56.5 Falcons-Packers (these two teams combined have been involved in games where the average number of points was 67.5!!!)
$250,000 MEGA CONTEST (BetOnline sportsbook)
Through the first three weeks, out of 2671 participants, I’m currently sitting in 2nd place with 13 correct picks versus only two that missed.
Wish me luck for the $4,000 quarterly prize, which will be awarded to the top contestant through the first 4 weeks!
Enjoy your weekend, and let’s crush those bookies together!!!
Professor MJ

If you have bet the “over” in every single NFL game in 2020, you are a rich man!
Indeed, the “over” holds an impressive 30-18 record so far; that’s a 62.5% win percentage.
This week, I’m going to mix some “regular” picks against the spread with some plays on totals, and also an additional pick where I’m taking a team in the first quarter.
Without further ado, let’s review my value bets for Week #4 in the NFL!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +7 AT TAMPA BAY BUCS
I do not like picking West Coast teams playing an early Sunday game, but I’ll make an exception here.
The Chargers have been involved in tight games thus far this season, thanks to their stout defense. Their most impressive game might have been one of their two losses: an overtime thriller against the Chiefs. Did you see what Kansas City did to Baltimore last week? They CRUSHED them. Knowing that the Chargers could have beaten them reinforces my confidence that Los Angeles can manage to cover the 7-point spread in Tampa.
Meanwhile, the Bucs have looked good recently, but they beat two weak teams: the Carolina Panthers and the injury-riddled Denver Broncos. In Week #1, they lost by 11 points to the Saints.
My level of confidence decreases due to injuries, as the Chargers seem more decimated than Tampa Bay. The Bucs will be missing star wide receiver Chris Godwin, and maybe running back Leonard Fournette and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting.
For Los Angeles, defensive end Melvin Ingram is out, as well as starting CB Chris Harris. That hurts, even though Desmond King is a very capable replacement for Harris.
The Chargers had also already lost center Mike Pouncey, and now they have Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner listed as questionable. Backups Trey Pipkins and Forrest Lamp both received awful ProFootballFocus grades last week: 37.5 and 44.8, respectively. That’s brutal!
I believe the public is overreacting to last week’s results. Sure, the Chargers lost to the lowly Panthers, but they were killed by four turnovers. They dominated total yardage, total first downs, and even converted 10-of-15 third down situations. Tampa Bay cruised to an easy 28-to-10 victory over the Broncos, who were missing TONS of starters at key positions.
If not for the Chargers injuries, I’d rate this play five stars.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): CHICAGO BEARS +0.5 FIRST QUARTER VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts cruised to an easy 36-7 win over the Jets last week. That sets up the table nicely for a soft start in Chicago this week, which is why I’m banking on the Bears to at least tie the first quarter against Indy.
Moreover, the Colts will be missing two receivers: Parris Campbell and rookie Michael Pittman. I don’t trust Zach Pascal too much, and T.Y. Hilton has not done much damage this year with 3 or 4 receptions in each game thus far. Indy’s secondary has also been hit by the injury bug with safety Malik Hooker out and CB Rock Ya-Sin listed as questionable.
Meanwhile, the Bears are relatively healthy, except for backup RB Tarik Cohen.
I’m betting Chicago to start the game strong. Replacing Mitchell Trubisky by Nick Foles at quarterback is like a breath of fresh air for the Bears.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +7 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
I would find it very uncomfortable to bet a team to win by 8 points or more against a Bill Belichick-coached squad. He just finds ways to stop your best players, and force you to play to your weaknesses.
We had another perfect example last week. Darren Waller is clearly the Raiders’ top receiving target. He looked unstoppable against the Saints, where he caught 12 passes for over 100 yards. The Pats did everything they could to stop him: he was limited to two receptions for a meager 9 yards. They forced Derek Carr to throw to other receivers, and their offense ended up struggling to find a good rhythm.
I’m betting that Bill Belichick reviewed very carefully the Chiefs-Ravens game and he won’t let that happen to his defense. He will take notes on how the Chargers were able to slow down Kansas City’s high-powered offense back in Week #2.
Here are a couple more arguments favoring this play. First, the Chiefs lose one day of preparation following their Monday night matchup with Baltimore. Also, the Pats will be looking to avenge a 23-to-16 home loss to the Chiefs last year in Week 14.
New England center David Andrews will miss the game and he will be replaced by an unproven guy whose name I cannot pronounce (Hjalte Froholdt). That’s a source of concern.
The Chiefs could be without stud defensive tackle Chris Jones and right guard Andrew Wylie. Their status is still up in the air.
I like the Pats to cover the 7-point spread.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): MIAMI DOLPHINS +6.5 VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Miami has the rest factor going their way, as they will be benefiting from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. Also, Seattle will be traveling through three time zones to play a game that will feel like 10 AM Pacific Time at kickoff this Sunday.
This matchup also has all the looks of a trap game for the Seahawks. They are coming off big meetings against the Patriots and the Cowboys. Facing a mediocre Dolphins team clearly does not look super enticing for Seattle.
The line opened at 6.5, then moved to 7 points after the Sunday games. Sharp money backed the Dolphins pretty hard, which forced sportsbooks to go back to 6.5. If the line goes back to 7, I’m going to add more money to my initial investment on Miami.
The Seahawks have quite a few guys whose status for Sunday is uncertain: running backs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, cornerback Quinton Dunbar, tight end Will Dissly, but most importantly safety Jamal Adams and offensive linemen Mike Iupati and Ethan Pocic.
On Miami’s side, the only noteworthy player on the injury list is cornerback Byron Jones, who could be back after missing the Week #3 meeting with the Jaguars.
The Dolphins are coming off a convincing win in Jacksonville as 3-point underdogs. Prior to this victory, they had lost to a couple of very tough opponents: Buffalo and New England. In both cases, they kept the score close.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a true warrior and he won’t have trouble putting points on the board against a defense that has allowed an average of 29 points this year.
BETS ON TOTALS
Here is the average number of points scored in each of the three weeks so far this season: 47.4, 53.3 and 52.2. Overall, 51 points have been scored on average per matchup. That’s the highest scoring the league has ever seen through three weeks.
As a comparison, the average line on totals in Week #4 is currently 49.8. I don’t see any reason why scoring should go down. After a rocky offseason due to covid-19, defensive tackling might improve, but offenses are finding their rhythm and timing.
Here are four games where I would bet the over:
-Over 43 Colts-Bears
-Over 51 Cards-Lions
-Over 53.5 Seahawks-Dolphins
-Over 56.5 Falcons-Packers (these two teams combined have been involved in games where the average number of points was 67.5!!!)
$250,000 MEGA CONTEST (BetOnline sportsbook)
Through the first three weeks, out of 2671 participants, I’m currently sitting in 2nd place with 13 correct picks versus only two that missed.
Wish me luck for the $4,000 quarterly prize, which will be awarded to the top contestant through the first 4 weeks!
Enjoy your weekend, and let’s crush those bookies together!!!
Professor MJ

A lot of great matchups in Week #3 in the NFL:
Chiefs-Ravens Packers-Saints Cowboys-Seahawks Rams-Bills Let’s hope the games live up to the hype!
Unlike the first two weeks, I do not have any 5-star or 4-star plays.
Still, I’ve got four recommended picks. Let me unveil them right away!
PICK #1 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6 VS LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Cam Newton looks in great shape. He ran for 75 and 47 yards in his first two games as a Patriot, and has shown great accuracy as a passer. Also, the defense has done pretty well despite the numerous departures in the offseason. Overall, I have to admit New England is playing at a higher level than I expected.
The Patriots have done very well under Bill Belichick following a straight up loss. Coming off a tight loss in Seattle, I wouldn’t put money against them for sure, especially considering the Raiders will lose one full day of rest after playing the Monday nighter.
Also, keep in mind the Raiders will be traveling through three time zones, while playing a game that will feel like it’s 10 AM Las Vegas time. To be fair, such teams from the West Coast playing a 1 PM Eastern Time match went a perfect 2-0 last week (3-0 if you include Denver who went through two time zones). Still, we’re talking about a small sample size so I won’t worry about it too much.
The injuries on the offensive line for the Raiders are worrisome. Left guard Richie Incognito is out, which by itself is already a big blow. Right tackle Trent Brown, his backup Sam Young and Incognito’s backup Denzelle Good are all listed as questionable right now. Ouch. That could spell trouble for Derek Carr, who is not the most mobile quarterback in the league.
Finally, star running back Josh Jacobs is being bothered by a hip injury. I’m pretty sure he’ll take the field Sunday, but he’s not 100%.
Following a big upset in New Orleans on primetime television, I expect a bit of a letdown by Las Vegas. I’m taking New England to beat the 6-point spread here.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): DALLAS COWBOYS +5 AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
I am aware that Dallas has many key injuries and that Russell Wilson has played at a MVP level. However, we are still getting the Cowboys as 5-point underdogs with Prescott-Elliott-Cooper-Gallup-Lamb in the lineup, right? No matter what, these guys can certainly keep the game tight and won’t go down easily.
I also want to argue that the Cowboys offensive line is hurt, but the effect won’t be as bad when facing Seattle’s defensive line. L.J. Collier has 0 career sack. Poona Ford has picked up just half a sack in the NFL. Jarran Reed recorded 10.5 sacks in 2018, but had just five in his three other seasons combined! As for Benson Mayowa, he had seven sacks with the Raiders last year, but was it an outlier? He had a total of 13 sacks in his previous five seasons, despite playing a minimum of 12 games in each one.
Say what you want about this matchup, the Cowboys will make it tough on Seattle with such an explosive offense.
Quick remark: I spoke earlier about Russell Wilson playing like a MVP. Before the season began, I discussed six players whose MVP odds were too high, in my opinion. My top pick was Wilson at +1400 odds. According to BetOnline.ag, he is now the favorite to win the award with +325 odds. This bet is looking great so far! I also recommended Josh Allen at +6000 odds; right now he’s at +1400 odds. Again, we got a great bargain prior to the 2020 season! Finally, one of my long shots was Joe Burrow at +21,484 odds. After two good outings, the odds have now gone down significantly to +8,000. See the full article here.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): NEW YORK GIANTS +4 VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Once again I’m fading a West Coast team playing a 1 PM game, but to be honest it was not part of my decision process here. The Niners played the other team from New York last week, so based on what I read they stayed on the East Coast between the two matchups.
My main argument concerns the difference between the actual point spread versus what it was before the Week #2 games. A week ago, early lines had the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites at the Giants. Following what happened in Week #2, oddsmakers lowered the line from 6.5 to 4.
In my opinion, the drop is not big enough. The Giants lost Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard, which is pretty significant.
But you have certainly heard of the rash of injuries on San Francisco’s side. Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Deebo Samuel, Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas and Dee Ford are all likely out. And linebacker Dre Greenlaw is uncertain to take the field. That’s unbelievable!
Nick Mullens is expected to be under center this weekend for the Niners. He’s an undrafted quarterback who has 13 career TD passes versus 11 interceptions. And he has minus-21 career rushing yards.
The Giants defense is not bad defending the run with players like Dalvin Tomlinson, Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence on the line. That matches up perfectly for a meeting against a team whose QB is an unproven passer. The Giants will dare the Niners to throw the ball, and I don’t trust Nick Mullens to become a superstar.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): CHICAGO BEARS +3 AT ATLANTA FALCONS
I don’t like this pick as much as I did earlier in the week since the line moved from 3.5 to 3. Half a point may not look super significant, but we’re talking about a move to the key number 3 (a win by a field goal).
Chicago is 2-0, while Atlanta is 0-2. Granted, the Bears faced two fairly weak opponents (the Lions and the Giants), while the Falcons played two tough ones (the Seahawks and the Cowboys).
Still, before the season began the Bears were expected to win 8 games versus 7.5 for the Falcons, according to odds on win totals. Based on the first two weeks, it seems right to view those squads as .500 teams. Since home-field advantage in front of empty stadiums should be worth around two points, I really liked the Bears +3.5. I am still picking them with the new +3 line, but I don’t like it as much.
Mitchell Trubisky is doing better than expected, and Chicago’s defense is playing well. Meanwhile, the Falcons offense is firing on all cylinders, but its defense cannot stop anyone.
The Bears don’t have any notable player on the injury list, except Khalil Mack. However, he is very likely to suit up this Sunday, which means the Bears will be playing with their full lineup.
The same cannot be said about the Falcons. My gosh, the injury list is a long one.
RT Kaleb McGary is very likely to miss the contest. The following players were listed as questionable as of Wednesday, which means they have a 50-50 chance of playing: LT Jake Matthews, DE Dante Fowler, safety Damontae Kazee, DE Takkarist McKinley, LB Foyesade Oluokun and DT Tyeler Davison.
And I’m also omitting a few rotational players, plus star wide receiver Julio Jones who is clearly hampered by a hamstring injury.
Professor MJ

The 5-star pick was a winner last week! And so was the 4-star play!
In both cases, we had taken a fairly big underdog that eventually won the game outright: the Arizona Cardinals (as 7-point underdogs in San Francisco) and the Washington Redskins (as 6.5-point underdogs vs Philadelphia).
If not for Detroit’s epic fourth-quarter collapse, the picks rated 3 stars or higher would have gone a perfect 4-0.
Let’s keep rolling!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
What?!?!? Last week my top play went to Arizona, and now in Week #2 my favorite bet goes against them?
There is something about this Washington team. They went through many negative news over the past few months. First, it was reported there was a culture of sexual harassment and discrimination within the organization, which started with the owner Daniel Snyder.
Also, the team has a lackluster roster with few big names. Heck, the team doesn’t even have a name right now! Even their head coach is facing an uphill battle as he was diagnosed with cancer.
Washington trailed 17-0 against the Eagles, which didn’t surprise many people. Then, somehow, Washington stormed back with 27 unanswered points. Rivera was hooked to an IV during halftime, and quarterback Dwayne Haskins took the opportunity to deliver an inspiring speech that motivated the whole team.
I don’t believe this win was a fluke. Washington’s motivation and focus will go a long way towards surprising many people this year. Make no mistake about it; this game won’t be a cakewalk for the Cardinals.
Four defensive linemen from Washington picked up 5 QB pressures or more last week. That’s impressive! Given how weak Arizona’s offensive line is, there will often be Washington defenders in the backfield disrupting plays. To top it all off, center Mason Cole is questionable to play, while left tackle D.J. Humphries is nursing a lower-body injury.
Also, Arizona’s defense is not scaring anyone. They did a fine job last week in San Francisco, but keep in mind the Niners were lacking playmakers, especially at the wide receiver position. Granted, Washington is not loaded on offense either, but they do have a couple of game breakers with Terry McLaurin and rookie Antonio Gibson. Dwayne Haskins is also progressing nicely after a rough start to his NFL career a year ago.
I expect a very tight game. Arizona might come away with the win, but it won’t be easy at all. I like this play quite a bit.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): TENNESSEE TITANS -8.5 VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
I smell a blowout here.
Most bookies have a spread of 8.5 or 9, but bwin has 8 right now, which is nice value in my opinion.
The Jags shocked the Colts 27-to-20 last week. But did you look at the numbers? Indy picked up 27 first downs versus just 17 for Jacksonville. The Colts outgained their opponent 445 to 241 in terms of total offensive yards. Clearly, the Jags were helped by Philip Rivers’ two interceptions.
That’s unlikely to happen against a smart Tennessee team. Coming into the season, remember that Jacksonville was projected to be the league’s worst team. They have a pretty bad roster.
Also, Jacksonville’s two starting safeties may miss the game. Jarrod Wilson has already been declared out, while Josh Jones is questionable. The #9 overall pick from this year’s draft, cornerback C.J. Henderson, may not be available either due to a concussion. Ryan Tannehill must be licking his chops.
Granted, cornerback Adoree’ Jackson is out for Tennessee. But that’s about it in terms of significant injuries for the Titans.
It wasn’t easy for Tennessee in Week #1, as they came away with a 16-14 win in Denver. If not for Stephen Gostkowski missing three field goals and one extra point, the Titans would have won 26-14. Now playing a much weaker Jacksonville team, I’ll predict a 20-point win favoring the Titans.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 AT CHICAGO BEARS
Last summer, the Bears were established as 5-point favorites for this matchup in very early NFL lines.
Considering the lack of fans, home teams should now be less favored. This has been reflected in most Week #2 meetings, but not here. The Giants should be 3 or 3.5-point underdogs.
An inflated line would be reasonable if the Giants had done significantly worse than expected in Week #1, or if the Bears had done an exceptional job in their first match. But that has not been the case.
Daniel Jones did a good job against the stout Steelers defense last Monday night. That’s very encouraging for the kid. The good news is he will also get one of his top targets back on the field, Golden Tate. He missed the season opener due to a hamstring injury, but he has a good chance to suit up this Sunday.
Saquon Barkley could not get going at all against Pittsburgh. He has a chance to explode this week after seeing the Bears allowing 4.8 yards per carry to the Lions last week.
I also like how the Giants defense matches up against the Bears. New York’s defensive line is very effective against the run. That should force Chicago to throw the ball more, and I don’t trust Mitchell Trubisky to light up the scoreboard.
For these reasons, I am taking the Giants to cover the 5.5-point spread.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Do you really want to bet against the Chiefs with three extra days of rest, following their Thursday night matchup with the Texans? I don’t.
In injury news, K.C.’s best cornerback, Charvarius Ward, is likely out with a fractured hand. That’s the main reason why this pick is not rated higher. Center Austin Reiter was recently upgraded from questionable to probable with a knee injury, so that’s reassuring.
On the Chargers side, they have a couple of offensive linemen whose status is uncertain: center Mike Pouncey and right guard Trai Turner. To make matters worse, their star defensive end Joey Bosa has an injured triceps, but he should be in the lineup. However, linebacker Drue Tranquill is out for several weeks.
In Week #1, the Chargers barely beat the Bengals, a game they could have easily lost if not for a questionable offensive pass interference penalty awarded to A.J. Green in the final seconds of the game. Los Angeles did not impress me one bit, including quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The difference between Patrick Mahomes and Tyrod Taylor is huge, and the surrounding cast in Kansas City is also much better.
The only advantage the Chargers hold is with their defense, whom I believe is slightly better. However, they’ll have trouble keeping up with the Chiefs offense who should have no problem scoring many points. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense won’t be able to keep up the pace.
PICK #5 (1 STAR): LOS ANGELES RAMS PICK’EM AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Man, the injuries are just piling up for the Eagles!
First, they had lost for the entire season two important pieces on the offensive line: Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard.
Now, safety Will Parks, defensive end Vinny Curry and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery are out several weeks.
The following players are tagged as questionable for Week #2: DE Brandon Graham, LT Jason Peters (that would be a massive blow!), DT Javon Hargrave and RB Boston Scott.
Finally, we’ve got a few more guys listed as probable: DE Derek Barnett, RT Lane Johnson (what??? Another offensive lineman on the injury list?) and RB Miles Sanders. These players are likely to play this weekend, but they won’t be 100%.
Meanwhile, the only player worth of note appearing on the Rams’ injury list is tight end Gerald Everett, but he has a strong shot to be available.
In other words, there is a GIGANTIC gap between the two teams’ health. I don’t believe the injuries are being properly accounted for in the current line. The Eagles were 4-point favorites during the summer. Given the lack of fans, the point spread should be down to about 2 or 2.5.
So, basically, the line was adjusted an additional 2-2.5 points due to a combination of injuries and the performance of both teams last week. That’s not enough, in my humble opinion.
The Rams played a very solid game against the Cowboys. Keep in mind that Dallas is among one of the Super Bowl favorites. Jared Goff was very accurate, and he has good weapons around him with Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.
Their running game surprised me too, especially Malcolm Brown. I thought he might end up being the #3 running back behind rookie Cam Akers and 2019 third-round pick Darrell Henderson, but the undrafted runner out of Texas got the most touches and ran very well. Indeed, he rushed 18 times for 79 yards and scored a couple of touchdowns.
With all the injuries on Philly’s offensive line, Carson Wentz is guaranteed to have nightmares every single night this week when thinking about what Aaron Donald might do to him this Sunday.
Have a nice weekend and thanks for reading my friend!
Professor MJ

The 5-star pick was a winner last week! And so was the 4-star play!
In both cases, we had taken a fairly big underdog that eventually won the game outright: the Arizona Cardinals (as 7-point underdogs in San Francisco) and the Washington Redskins (as 6.5-point underdogs vs Philadelphia).
If not for Detroit’s epic fourth-quarter collapse, the picks rated 3 stars or higher would have gone a perfect 4-0.
Let’s keep rolling!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
What?!?!? Last week my top play went to Arizona, and now in Week #2 my favorite bet goes against them?
There is something about this Washington team. They went through many negative news over the past few months. First, it was reported there was a culture of sexual harassment and discrimination within the organization, which started with the owner Daniel Snyder.
Also, the team has a lackluster roster with few big names. Heck, the team doesn’t even have a name right now! Even their head coach is facing an uphill battle as he was diagnosed with cancer.
Washington trailed 17-0 against the Eagles, which didn’t surprise many people. Then, somehow, Washington stormed back with 27 unanswered points. Rivera was hooked to an IV during halftime, and quarterback Dwayne Haskins took the opportunity to deliver an inspiring speech that motivated the whole team.
I don’t believe this win was a fluke. Washington’s motivation and focus will go a long way towards surprising many people this year. Make no mistake about it; this game won’t be a cakewalk for the Cardinals.
Four defensive linemen from Washington picked up 5 QB pressures or more last week. That’s impressive! Given how weak Arizona’s offensive line is, there will often be Washington defenders in the backfield disrupting plays. To top it all off, center Mason Cole is questionable to play, while left tackle D.J. Humphries is nursing a lower-body injury.
Also, Arizona’s defense is not scaring anyone. They did a fine job last week in San Francisco, but keep in mind the Niners were lacking playmakers, especially at the wide receiver position. Granted, Washington is not loaded on offense either, but they do have a couple of game breakers with Terry McLaurin and rookie Antonio Gibson. Dwayne Haskins is also progressing nicely after a rough start to his NFL career a year ago.
I expect a very tight game. Arizona might come away with the win, but it won’t be easy at all. I like this play quite a bit.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): TENNESSEE TITANS -8.5 VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
I smell a blowout here.
Most bookies have a spread of 8.5 or 9, but bwin has 8 right now, which is nice value in my opinion.
The Jags shocked the Colts 27-to-20 last week. But did you look at the numbers? Indy picked up 27 first downs versus just 17 for Jacksonville. The Colts outgained their opponent 445 to 241 in terms of total offensive yards. Clearly, the Jags were helped by Philip Rivers’ two interceptions.
That’s unlikely to happen against a smart Tennessee team. Coming into the season, remember that Jacksonville was projected to be the league’s worst team. They have a pretty bad roster.
Also, Jacksonville’s two starting safeties may miss the game. Jarrod Wilson has already been declared out, while Josh Jones is questionable. The #9 overall pick from this year’s draft, cornerback C.J. Henderson, may not be available either due to a concussion. Ryan Tannehill must be licking his chops.
Granted, cornerback Adoree’ Jackson is out for Tennessee. But that’s about it in terms of significant injuries for the Titans.
It wasn’t easy for Tennessee in Week #1, as they came away with a 16-14 win in Denver. If not for Stephen Gostkowski missing three field goals and one extra point, the Titans would have won 26-14. Now playing a much weaker Jacksonville team, I’ll predict a 20-point win favoring the Titans.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 AT CHICAGO BEARS
Last summer, the Bears were established as 5-point favorites for this matchup in very early NFL lines.
Considering the lack of fans, home teams should now be less favored. This has been reflected in most Week #2 meetings, but not here. The Giants should be 3 or 3.5-point underdogs.
An inflated line would be reasonable if the Giants had done significantly worse than expected in Week #1, or if the Bears had done an exceptional job in their first match. But that has not been the case.
Daniel Jones did a good job against the stout Steelers defense last Monday night. That’s very encouraging for the kid. The good news is he will also get one of his top targets back on the field, Golden Tate. He missed the season opener due to a hamstring injury, but he has a good chance to suit up this Sunday.
Saquon Barkley could not get going at all against Pittsburgh. He has a chance to explode this week after seeing the Bears allowing 4.8 yards per carry to the Lions last week.
I also like how the Giants defense matches up against the Bears. New York’s defensive line is very effective against the run. That should force Chicago to throw the ball more, and I don’t trust Mitchell Trubisky to light up the scoreboard.
For these reasons, I am taking the Giants to cover the 5.5-point spread.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Do you really want to bet against the Chiefs with three extra days of rest, following their Thursday night matchup with the Texans? I don’t.
In injury news, K.C.’s best cornerback, Charvarius Ward, is likely out with a fractured hand. That’s the main reason why this pick is not rated higher. Center Austin Reiter was recently upgraded from questionable to probable with a knee injury, so that’s reassuring.
On the Chargers side, they have a couple of offensive linemen whose status is uncertain: center Mike Pouncey and right guard Trai Turner. To make matters worse, their star defensive end Joey Bosa has an injured triceps, but he should be in the lineup. However, linebacker Drue Tranquill is out for several weeks.
In Week #1, the Chargers barely beat the Bengals, a game they could have easily lost if not for a questionable offensive pass interference penalty awarded to A.J. Green in the final seconds of the game. Los Angeles did not impress me one bit, including quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The difference between Patrick Mahomes and Tyrod Taylor is huge, and the surrounding cast in Kansas City is also much better.
The only advantage the Chargers hold is with their defense, whom I believe is slightly better. However, they’ll have trouble keeping up with the Chiefs offense who should have no problem scoring many points. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense won’t be able to keep up the pace.
PICK #5 (1 STAR): LOS ANGELES RAMS PICK’EM AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Man, the injuries are just piling up for the Eagles!
First, they had lost for the entire season two important pieces on the offensive line: Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard.
Now, safety Will Parks, defensive end Vinny Curry and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery are out several weeks.
The following players are tagged as questionable for Week #2: DE Brandon Graham, LT Jason Peters (that would be a massive blow!), DT Javon Hargrave and RB Boston Scott.
Finally, we’ve got a few more guys listed as probable: DE Derek Barnett, RT Lane Johnson (what??? Another offensive lineman on the injury list?) and RB Miles Sanders. These players are likely to play this weekend, but they won’t be 100%.
Meanwhile, the only player worth of note appearing on the Rams’ injury list is tight end Gerald Everett, but he has a strong shot to be available.
In other words, there is a GIGANTIC gap between the two teams’ health. I don’t believe the injuries are being properly accounted for in the current line. The Eagles were 4-point favorites during the summer. Given the lack of fans, the point spread should be down to about 2 or 2.5.
So, basically, the line was adjusted an additional 2-2.5 points due to a combination of injuries and the performance of both teams last week. That’s not enough, in my humble opinion.
The Rams played a very solid game against the Cowboys. Keep in mind that Dallas is among one of the Super Bowl favorites. Jared Goff was very accurate, and he has good weapons around him with Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.
Their running game surprised me too, especially Malcolm Brown. I thought he might end up being the #3 running back behind rookie Cam Akers and 2019 third-round pick Darrell Henderson, but the undrafted runner out of Texas got the most touches and ran very well. Indeed, he rushed 18 times for 79 yards and scored a couple of touchdowns.
With all the injuries on Philly’s offensive line, Carson Wentz is guaranteed to have nightmares every single night this week when thinking about what Aaron Donald might do to him this Sunday.
Have a nice weekend and thanks for reading my friend!
Professor MJ

Week #1 in the NFL is finally upon us!
Right off the bat I’ve got a great betting angle that’s been doing wonders historically in Week #1:
"Bet a team facing a divisional opponent against which they lost both meetings the year before."
Let’s call it the “Week #1 Double Division Revenge” factor.
Over the past 10 years, this strategy led to an astounding 22-10 record against the spread (ATS), a 68.8% win rate!
This year we’ve got five teams meeting this criterion for betting. Out of those, there’s one squad I won’t bet for different reasons, while the other four are all part of my weekly picks.
We are starting strong, already with a 5-star play!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS +7 AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
First of all, the Cards represent a good bet according to the Double Division Revenge strategy described earlier. Arizona lost 28-25 at home and 36-26 on the road against the Niners last year.
Secondly, teams who had a losing record the year before facing a team that had a winning record tend to do very well in Week #1. Indeed, they have gone 89-57 ATS since 1990 (61.0%), and 46-23 ATS since 2006 (66.7%). Arizona finished with a 5-10-1 record in 2019 versus 13-3 for San Francisco.
Thirdly, the betting public could be overlooking the injury bug that’s been hitting the 49ers recently.
At wide receiver, the team is in trouble. Deebo Samuel is either out, or will be on a snap count due to a foot injury. Following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders to New Orleans, who was set to become their #2 guy? The answer wasn’t clear to begin with, and things got even worse in the past few weeks. Travis Benjamin, Jalen Hurd and Tavon Austin are all out.
Rookie Brandon Aiyuk was projected to be the starter opposite Samuel, but he’s also hurt and his status is uncertain. Kendrick Bourne and/or Trent Taylor might need to be more involved, which is hardly good news.
The defense also has numerous guys who are questionable or banged up: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Dee Ford and K’Waun Williams.
For these reasons, I’m going to back the Cards. Now in their second year in the NFL, QB Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury should be more comfortable. I would not fall off my chair if Arizona won the game outright. As you could read in my 49ers 2020 preview, I’m afraid their 2019 season was a fluke.
PICK #2 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
In 2019, Washington lost both matchups with the Eagles: 32-27 in Philly and 37-27 in D.C. In other words, the Double Division Revenge betting angle applies here.
Also, who likes to put his money on a team that finished 3-13 a year ago? Only contrarians like myself do.
Injuries have already taken a toll on Philly’s roster. Alshon Jeffery is out, and rookie Jalen Reagor is questionable but likely out as well. That leaves the team with 33-year old DeSean Jackson, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward as starters. Not good.
The organization also lost two key pieces on their offensive line: stud right guard Brandon Brooks and left tackle Andre Dillard. Ouch.
That’s not it. Starting safety Will Parks is out, while Javon Hargrave, a beast on the defensive line, is banged up with a pectoral strain. Finally, running back Miles Sanders will be in the lineup, but a hamstring injury is bothering him.
I was close to rating it 5 stars, but one factor stopped me from pulling the trigger on this one. I don’t like the fact that Washington has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. That’s far from ideal in Week #1.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): DETROIT LIONS -3 VS CHICAGO BEARS
Once again, we’ve got the Double Division Revenge betting strategy on our side. Indeed, Detroit lost 20-13 in Chicago and 24-20 at home last season against Da Bears.
Starting running back David Montgomery is likely out, or limited. The backups are Tarik Cohen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce, who have combined for 83 carries in 2019. I liked Cohen a lot early in his career, but he was plain awful last year.
I do believe the Lions are an underrated team who could explode this year. They have much more talent than you’d think. Matthew Stafford has been great throughout his career, but he doesn’t get the credit he deserves because his teams have done badly.
The defense has a lot of new faces: Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon and #3 overall pick Jeffrey Okudah. They are likely to lift this unit, but how much time will it take to gel?
PICK #4 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -3 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Covid-19 virus forced the NFL to shorten its training camps and to cancel all preseason games. That’s likely to have the following impact:
Teams with more continuity will have a big advantage over teams who don’t. In other words, having the same coaching staff and the same core players will provide a huge advantage.
That favors the Raiders in a big way over the Panthers.
On one hand, Las Vegas retained the same coaching staff, while Carolina has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. What makes it even worse is these three guys have just 7 years of combined NFL experience. To put things in perspective, the team with the second-lowest NFL experience among its coaches has 31 years behind the belt. There is an overwhelming gap between Carolina and any other squad.
The Panthers may also be the team that had the largest player turnover this offseason. On offense, they have a new QB (Teddy Bridgewater), a new No.2 WR (Robby Anderson), a new starting tight end with Greg Olsen leaving the franchise and 2-3 new starters on the offensive line.
As for the defense, the unit lost Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Bruce Irvin, Mario Addison, Luke Kuechly and James Bradberry (omitting a few more players that are now off the team). Unreal.
I’m taking the more stable Raiders team since Carolina might be lacking cohesion and timing on both sides of the ball.
PICK #5 (2 STARS): MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
Again, the Double Division Revenge factor comes into play. Minnesota lost both meetings with the team from the Frozen Tundra: 21-16 in Green Bay, 23-10 in Minnesota.
This pick is not rated very high because that’s pretty much the lone argument favoring them. Green Bay returns the same coaching staff, while the Vikes have a new OC and a new DC.
You could argue, though, that the Packers defense’s Achilles heel was its run defense, which happens to be Minnesota’s strength with Dalvin Cook leading the way (and a very promising RB #2 in Alexander Mattison).
Both teams have a hole at the WR #2 position. Can Allen Lazard or Bisi Johnson truly assume that role for their respective teams? I doubt it.
I’m also afraid the Vikings defense might regress significantly after losing many key pieces like Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph and three cornerbacks.
PICK #6 (1 STAR): HOUSTON TEXANS +9 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Big underdogs have fared very well in the opening week of NFL regular seasons.
As a matter of fact, 8+ points underdogs have gone 43-25 ATS in recent years in Week #1; that’s a 63.2% winning play.
I think the DeAndre Hopkins trade was horrible for the Texans, but they still have a strong WR corps with Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. And the team still has one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Deshaun Watson.
Their defense worries me, though. Their secondaries are fairly bad, which does not bode well when facing the Chiefs aerial attack! Also, losing stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader is a blow.
I do think the Chiefs defense is pretty bad and overrated, so I’m hoping the Texans can keep the score close enough to cover this big point spread.
Enjoy Week #1 and I’ll talk to you again very soon!
Professor MJ

Week #1 in the NFL is finally upon us!
Right off the bat I’ve got a great betting angle that’s been doing wonders historically in Week #1:
"Bet a team facing a divisional opponent against which they lost both meetings the year before."
Let’s call it the “Week #1 Double Division Revenge” factor.
Over the past 10 years, this strategy led to an astounding 22-10 record against the spread (ATS), a 68.8% win rate!
This year we’ve got five teams meeting this criterion for betting. Out of those, there’s one squad I won’t bet for different reasons, while the other four are all part of my weekly picks.
We are starting strong, already with a 5-star play!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS +7 AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
First of all, the Cards represent a good bet according to the Double Division Revenge strategy described earlier. Arizona lost 28-25 at home and 36-26 on the road against the Niners last year.
Secondly, teams who had a losing record the year before facing a team that had a winning record tend to do very well in Week #1. Indeed, they have gone 89-57 ATS since 1990 (61.0%), and 46-23 ATS since 2006 (66.7%). Arizona finished with a 5-10-1 record in 2019 versus 13-3 for San Francisco.
Thirdly, the betting public could be overlooking the injury bug that’s been hitting the 49ers recently.
At wide receiver, the team is in trouble. Deebo Samuel is either out, or will be on a snap count due to a foot injury. Following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders to New Orleans, who was set to become their #2 guy? The answer wasn’t clear to begin with, and things got even worse in the past few weeks. Travis Benjamin, Jalen Hurd and Tavon Austin are all out.
Rookie Brandon Aiyuk was projected to be the starter opposite Samuel, but he’s also hurt and his status is uncertain. Kendrick Bourne and/or Trent Taylor might need to be more involved, which is hardly good news.
The defense also has numerous guys who are questionable or banged up: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Dee Ford and K’Waun Williams.
For these reasons, I’m going to back the Cards. Now in their second year in the NFL, QB Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury should be more comfortable. I would not fall off my chair if Arizona won the game outright. As you could read in my 49ers 2020 preview, I’m afraid their 2019 season was a fluke.
PICK #2 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
In 2019, Washington lost both matchups with the Eagles: 32-27 in Philly and 37-27 in D.C. In other words, the Double Division Revenge betting angle applies here.
Also, who likes to put his money on a team that finished 3-13 a year ago? Only contrarians like myself do.
Injuries have already taken a toll on Philly’s roster. Alshon Jeffery is out, and rookie Jalen Reagor is questionable but likely out as well. That leaves the team with 33-year old DeSean Jackson, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward as starters. Not good.
The organization also lost two key pieces on their offensive line: stud right guard Brandon Brooks and left tackle Andre Dillard. Ouch.
That’s not it. Starting safety Will Parks is out, while Javon Hargrave, a beast on the defensive line, is banged up with a pectoral strain. Finally, running back Miles Sanders will be in the lineup, but a hamstring injury is bothering him.
I was close to rating it 5 stars, but one factor stopped me from pulling the trigger on this one. I don’t like the fact that Washington has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. That’s far from ideal in Week #1.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): DETROIT LIONS -3 VS CHICAGO BEARS
Once again, we’ve got the Double Division Revenge betting strategy on our side. Indeed, Detroit lost 20-13 in Chicago and 24-20 at home last season against Da Bears.
Starting running back David Montgomery is likely out, or limited. The backups are Tarik Cohen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce, who have combined for 83 carries in 2019. I liked Cohen a lot early in his career, but he was plain awful last year.
I do believe the Lions are an underrated team who could explode this year. They have much more talent than you’d think. Matthew Stafford has been great throughout his career, but he doesn’t get the credit he deserves because his teams have done badly.
The defense has a lot of new faces: Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon and #3 overall pick Jeffrey Okudah. They are likely to lift this unit, but how much time will it take to gel?
PICK #4 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -3 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Covid-19 virus forced the NFL to shorten its training camps and to cancel all preseason games. That’s likely to have the following impact:
Teams with more continuity will have a big advantage over teams who don’t. In other words, having the same coaching staff and the same core players will provide a huge advantage.
That favors the Raiders in a big way over the Panthers.
On one hand, Las Vegas retained the same coaching staff, while Carolina has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. What makes it even worse is these three guys have just 7 years of combined NFL experience. To put things in perspective, the team with the second-lowest NFL experience among its coaches has 31 years behind the belt. There is an overwhelming gap between Carolina and any other squad.
The Panthers may also be the team that had the largest player turnover this offseason. On offense, they have a new QB (Teddy Bridgewater), a new No.2 WR (Robby Anderson), a new starting tight end with Greg Olsen leaving the franchise and 2-3 new starters on the offensive line.
As for the defense, the unit lost Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Bruce Irvin, Mario Addison, Luke Kuechly and James Bradberry (omitting a few more players that are now off the team). Unreal.
I’m taking the more stable Raiders team since Carolina might be lacking cohesion and timing on both sides of the ball.
PICK #5 (2 STARS): MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
Again, the Double Division Revenge factor comes into play. Minnesota lost both meetings with the team from the Frozen Tundra: 21-16 in Green Bay, 23-10 in Minnesota.
This pick is not rated very high because that’s pretty much the lone argument favoring them. Green Bay returns the same coaching staff, while the Vikes have a new OC and a new DC.
You could argue, though, that the Packers defense’s Achilles heel was its run defense, which happens to be Minnesota’s strength with Dalvin Cook leading the way (and a very promising RB #2 in Alexander Mattison).
Both teams have a hole at the WR #2 position. Can Allen Lazard or Bisi Johnson truly assume that role for their respective teams? I doubt it.
I’m also afraid the Vikings defense might regress significantly after losing many key pieces like Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph and three cornerbacks.
PICK #6 (1 STAR): HOUSTON TEXANS +9 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Big underdogs have fared very well in the opening week of NFL regular seasons.
As a matter of fact, 8+ points underdogs have gone 43-25 ATS in recent years in Week #1; that’s a 63.2% winning play.
I think the DeAndre Hopkins trade was horrible for the Texans, but they still have a strong WR corps with Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. And the team still has one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Deshaun Watson.
Their defense worries me, though. Their secondaries are fairly bad, which does not bode well when facing the Chiefs aerial attack! Also, losing stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader is a blow.
I do think the Chiefs defense is pretty bad and overrated, so I’m hoping the Texans can keep the score close enough to cover this big point spread.
Enjoy Week #1 and I’ll talk to you again very soon!
Professor MJ

Week #1 in the NFL is finally upon us!
Right off the bat I’ve got a great betting angle that’s been doing wonders historically in Week #1:
"Bet a team facing a divisional opponent against which they lost both meetings the year before."
Let’s call it the “Week #1 Double Division Revenge” factor.
Over the past 10 years, this strategy led to an astounding 22-10 record against the spread (ATS), a 68.8% win rate!
This year we’ve got five teams meeting this criterion for betting. Out of those, there’s one squad I won’t bet for different reasons, while the other four are all part of my weekly picks.
We are starting strong, already with a 5-star play!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS +7 AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
First of all, the Cards represent a good bet according to the Double Division Revenge strategy described earlier. Arizona lost 28-25 at home and 36-26 on the road against the Niners last year.
Secondly, teams who had a losing record the year before facing a team that had a winning record tend to do very well in Week #1. Indeed, they have gone 89-57 ATS since 1990 (61.0%), and 46-23 ATS since 2006 (66.7%). Arizona finished with a 5-10-1 record in 2019 versus 13-3 for San Francisco.
Thirdly, the betting public could be overlooking the injury bug that’s been hitting the 49ers recently.
At wide receiver, the team is in trouble. Deebo Samuel is either out, or will be on a snap count due to a foot injury. Following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders to New Orleans, who was set to become their #2 guy? The answer wasn’t clear to begin with, and things got even worse in the past few weeks. Travis Benjamin, Jalen Hurd and Tavon Austin are all out.
Rookie Brandon Aiyuk was projected to be the starter opposite Samuel, but he’s also hurt and his status is uncertain. Kendrick Bourne and/or Trent Taylor might need to be more involved, which is hardly good news.
The defense also has numerous guys who are questionable or banged up: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Dee Ford and K’Waun Williams.
For these reasons, I’m going to back the Cards. Now in their second year in the NFL, QB Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury should be more comfortable. I would not fall off my chair if Arizona won the game outright. As you could read in my 49ers 2020 preview, I’m afraid their 2019 season was a fluke.
PICK #2 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
In 2019, Washington lost both matchups with the Eagles: 32-27 in Philly and 37-27 in D.C. In other words, the Double Division Revenge betting angle applies here.
Also, who likes to put his money on a team that finished 3-13 a year ago? Only contrarians like myself do.
Injuries have already taken a toll on Philly’s roster. Alshon Jeffery is out, and rookie Jalen Reagor is questionable but likely out as well. That leaves the team with 33-year old DeSean Jackson, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward as starters. Not good.
The organization also lost two key pieces on their offensive line: stud right guard Brandon Brooks and left tackle Andre Dillard. Ouch.
That’s not it. Starting safety Will Parks is out, while Javon Hargrave, a beast on the defensive line, is banged up with a pectoral strain. Finally, running back Miles Sanders will be in the lineup, but a hamstring injury is bothering him.
I was close to rating it 5 stars, but one factor stopped me from pulling the trigger on this one. I don’t like the fact that Washington has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. That’s far from ideal in Week #1.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): DETROIT LIONS -3 VS CHICAGO BEARS
Once again, we’ve got the Double Division Revenge betting strategy on our side. Indeed, Detroit lost 20-13 in Chicago and 24-20 at home last season against Da Bears.
Starting running back David Montgomery is likely out, or limited. The backups are Tarik Cohen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce, who have combined for 83 carries in 2019. I liked Cohen a lot early in his career, but he was plain awful last year.
I do believe the Lions are an underrated team who could explode this year. They have much more talent than you’d think. Matthew Stafford has been great throughout his career, but he doesn’t get the credit he deserves because his teams have done badly.
The defense has a lot of new faces: Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon and #3 overall pick Jeffrey Okudah. They are likely to lift this unit, but how much time will it take to gel?
PICK #4 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -3 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Covid-19 virus forced the NFL to shorten its training camps and to cancel all preseason games. That’s likely to have the following impact:
Teams with more continuity will have a big advantage over teams who don’t. In other words, having the same coaching staff and the same core players will provide a huge advantage.
That favors the Raiders in a big way over the Panthers.
On one hand, Las Vegas retained the same coaching staff, while Carolina has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. What makes it even worse is these three guys have just 7 years of combined NFL experience. To put things in perspective, the team with the second-lowest NFL experience among its coaches has 31 years behind the belt. There is an overwhelming gap between Carolina and any other squad.
The Panthers may also be the team that had the largest player turnover this offseason. On offense, they have a new QB (Teddy Bridgewater), a new No.2 WR (Robby Anderson), a new starting tight end with Greg Olsen leaving the franchise and 2-3 new starters on the offensive line.
As for the defense, the unit lost Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Bruce Irvin, Mario Addison, Luke Kuechly and James Bradberry (omitting a few more players that are now off the team). Unreal.
I’m taking the more stable Raiders team since Carolina might be lacking cohesion and timing on both sides of the ball.
PICK #5 (2 STARS): MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
Again, the Double Division Revenge factor comes into play. Minnesota lost both meetings with the team from the Frozen Tundra: 21-16 in Green Bay, 23-10 in Minnesota.
This pick is not rated very high because that’s pretty much the lone argument favoring them. Green Bay returns the same coaching staff, while the Vikes have a new OC and a new DC.
You could argue, though, that the Packers defense’s Achilles heel was its run defense, which happens to be Minnesota’s strength with Dalvin Cook leading the way (and a very promising RB #2 in Alexander Mattison).
Both teams have a hole at the WR #2 position. Can Allen Lazard or Bisi Johnson truly assume that role for their respective teams? I doubt it.
I’m also afraid the Vikings defense might regress significantly after losing many key pieces like Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph and three cornerbacks.
PICK #6 (1 STAR): HOUSTON TEXANS +9 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Big underdogs have fared very well in the opening week of NFL regular seasons.
As a matter of fact, 8+ points underdogs have gone 43-25 ATS in recent years in Week #1; that’s a 63.2% winning play.
I think the DeAndre Hopkins trade was horrible for the Texans, but they still have a strong WR corps with Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. And the team still has one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Deshaun Watson.
Their defense worries me, though. Their secondaries are fairly bad, which does not bode well when facing the Chiefs aerial attack! Also, losing stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader is a blow.
I do think the Chiefs defense is pretty bad and overrated, so I’m hoping the Texans can keep the score close enough to cover this big point spread.
Enjoy Week #1 and I’ll talk to you again very soon!
Professor MJ

Week #1 in the NFL is finally upon us!
Right off the bat I’ve got a great betting angle that’s been doing wonders historically in Week #1:
"Bet a team facing a divisional opponent against which they lost both meetings the year before."
Let’s call it the “Week #1 Double Division Revenge” factor.
Over the past 10 years, this strategy led to an astounding 22-10 record against the spread (ATS), a 68.8% win rate!
This year we’ve got five teams meeting this criterion for betting. Out of those, there’s one squad I won’t bet for different reasons, while the other four are all part of my weekly picks.
We are starting strong, already with a 5-star play!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS +7 AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
First of all, the Cards represent a good bet according to the Double Division Revenge strategy described earlier. Arizona lost 28-25 at home and 36-26 on the road against the Niners last year.
Secondly, teams who had a losing record the year before facing a team that had a winning record tend to do very well in Week #1. Indeed, they have gone 89-57 ATS since 1990 (61.0%), and 46-23 ATS since 2006 (66.7%). Arizona finished with a 5-10-1 record in 2019 versus 13-3 for San Francisco.
Thirdly, the betting public could be overlooking the injury bug that’s been hitting the 49ers recently.
At wide receiver, the team is in trouble. Deebo Samuel is either out, or will be on a snap count due to a foot injury. Following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders to New Orleans, who was set to become their #2 guy? The answer wasn’t clear to begin with, and things got even worse in the past few weeks. Travis Benjamin, Jalen Hurd and Tavon Austin are all out.
Rookie Brandon Aiyuk was projected to be the starter opposite Samuel, but he’s also hurt and his status is uncertain. Kendrick Bourne and/or Trent Taylor might need to be more involved, which is hardly good news.
The defense also has numerous guys who are questionable or banged up: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Dee Ford and K’Waun Williams.
For these reasons, I’m going to back the Cards. Now in their second year in the NFL, QB Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury should be more comfortable. I would not fall off my chair if Arizona won the game outright. As you could read in my 49ers 2020 preview, I’m afraid their 2019 season was a fluke.
PICK #2 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
In 2019, Washington lost both matchups with the Eagles: 32-27 in Philly and 37-27 in D.C. In other words, the Double Division Revenge betting angle applies here.
Also, who likes to put his money on a team that finished 3-13 a year ago? Only contrarians like myself do.
Injuries have already taken a toll on Philly’s roster. Alshon Jeffery is out, and rookie Jalen Reagor is questionable but likely out as well. That leaves the team with 33-year old DeSean Jackson, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward as starters. Not good.
The organization also lost two key pieces on their offensive line: stud right guard Brandon Brooks and left tackle Andre Dillard. Ouch.
That’s not it. Starting safety Will Parks is out, while Javon Hargrave, a beast on the defensive line, is banged up with a pectoral strain. Finally, running back Miles Sanders will be in the lineup, but a hamstring injury is bothering him.
I was close to rating it 5 stars, but one factor stopped me from pulling the trigger on this one. I don’t like the fact that Washington has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. That’s far from ideal in Week #1.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): DETROIT LIONS -3 VS CHICAGO BEARS
Once again, we’ve got the Double Division Revenge betting strategy on our side. Indeed, Detroit lost 20-13 in Chicago and 24-20 at home last season against Da Bears.
Starting running back David Montgomery is likely out, or limited. The backups are Tarik Cohen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce, who have combined for 83 carries in 2019. I liked Cohen a lot early in his career, but he was plain awful last year.
I do believe the Lions are an underrated team who could explode this year. They have much more talent than you’d think. Matthew Stafford has been great throughout his career, but he doesn’t get the credit he deserves because his teams have done badly.
The defense has a lot of new faces: Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon and #3 overall pick Jeffrey Okudah. They are likely to lift this unit, but how much time will it take to gel?
PICK #4 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -3 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Covid-19 virus forced the NFL to shorten its training camps and to cancel all preseason games. That’s likely to have the following impact:
Teams with more continuity will have a big advantage over teams who don’t. In other words, having the same coaching staff and the same core players will provide a huge advantage.
That favors the Raiders in a big way over the Panthers.
On one hand, Las Vegas retained the same coaching staff, while Carolina has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. What makes it even worse is these three guys have just 7 years of combined NFL experience. To put things in perspective, the team with the second-lowest NFL experience among its coaches has 31 years behind the belt. There is an overwhelming gap between Carolina and any other squad.
The Panthers may also be the team that had the largest player turnover this offseason. On offense, they have a new QB (Teddy Bridgewater), a new No.2 WR (Robby Anderson), a new starting tight end with Greg Olsen leaving the franchise and 2-3 new starters on the offensive line.
As for the defense, the unit lost Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Bruce Irvin, Mario Addison, Luke Kuechly and James Bradberry (omitting a few more players that are now off the team). Unreal.
I’m taking the more stable Raiders team since Carolina might be lacking cohesion and timing on both sides of the ball.
PICK #5 (2 STARS): MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
Again, the Double Division Revenge factor comes into play. Minnesota lost both meetings with the team from the Frozen Tundra: 21-16 in Green Bay, 23-10 in Minnesota.
This pick is not rated very high because that’s pretty much the lone argument favoring them. Green Bay returns the same coaching staff, while the Vikes have a new OC and a new DC.
You could argue, though, that the Packers defense’s Achilles heel was its run defense, which happens to be Minnesota’s strength with Dalvin Cook leading the way (and a very promising RB #2 in Alexander Mattison).
Both teams have a hole at the WR #2 position. Can Allen Lazard or Bisi Johnson truly assume that role for their respective teams? I doubt it.
I’m also afraid the Vikings defense might regress significantly after losing many key pieces like Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph and three cornerbacks.
PICK #6 (1 STAR): HOUSTON TEXANS +9 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Big underdogs have fared very well in the opening week of NFL regular seasons.
As a matter of fact, 8+ points underdogs have gone 43-25 ATS in recent years in Week #1; that’s a 63.2% winning play.
I think the DeAndre Hopkins trade was horrible for the Texans, but they still have a strong WR corps with Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. And the team still has one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Deshaun Watson.
Their defense worries me, though. Their secondaries are fairly bad, which does not bode well when facing the Chiefs aerial attack! Also, losing stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader is a blow.
I do think the Chiefs defense is pretty bad and overrated, so I’m hoping the Texans can keep the score close enough to cover this big point spread.
Enjoy Week #1 and I’ll talk to you again very soon!
Professor MJ

Many sportsbooks are offering the possibility of betting who will win the MVP title in the NFL this year. In this article, I will unveil 6 players whose odds represent good value, in my opinion.
In order for a player to make my list, he had to meet two conditions:
•    Condition #1: There has to be one online sportsbook whose line on this specific player is significantly higher than other bookies.
•    Condition #2: I believe the player in question does hold a reasonable chance of becoming the 2020 MVP.
Before we dive into the candidates, here is a vital statistic to be aware of:
Over the past 30 years, the MVP award was won by: 
24 quarterbacks (80%) and 6 running backs (20%).
Keep that in mind when making your pick.
POTENTIAL MVP #1: Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
Best odds: +1400 at BetOnline.ag (i.e. 15.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +580 (Pinnacle), +800 (William Hill), +800 (DraftKings), +700 (FanDuel), +700 (10Bet), +1000 (Jazz), +600 (bwin), +600 (Intertops), +650 (Bet365).
 
If not for Lamar Jackson’s heroics, Wilson would have won the MVP title in 2019. As a matter of fact, ProFootballFocus named him the MVP last year. He was spectacular with a 66% completion rate, a 31-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, 4,100 passing yards and 342 more on the ground (while adding 3 rushing TDs).
His TD-to-INT ratio has been extraordinary, especially over the past three seasons. In this time frame, he has thrown 100 touchdowns while getting intercepted just 23 times. Compare that to Jameis Winston who had 30 picks last year alone!
Wilson has a couple of good wideouts to throw to: Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. The latter took huge leap towards the end of his rookie season, including 160 receiving yards in a playoff game.
At tight end, Will Dissly will be back after playing just six games last year. The organization also signed veteran Greg Olsen. I know, I know, he must be close to 75 years old, but he still caught 52 passes from awful QBs in Carolina last season.
At the running back position, the team still has Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. That being said, Penny will probably miss the first six games, but Seattle grabbed Carlos Hyde. Don’t forget he racked up over 1,000 yards on the ground last year with the Texans.
As you can see above, the vast majority of sportsbook have posted odds between +600 and +800 on Wilson to win the MVP title. At +1400, we are getting a bargain, especially considering the quality of the player.
POTENTIAL MVP #2: Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
Best odds: +6600 at William Hill (i.e. 67.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +2584 (Pinnacle), +4000 (DraftKings), +4400 (FanDuel), +2500 (BetOnline), +4800 (10Bet), +5000 (Jazz), +5000 (bwin), +5000 (Intertops), +5000 (Bet365).
 
This guy is underrated because he plays for a small-market team who has been in the bottom of the standings for a long time. But don’t sleep on him.
He’s been very consistent over the years. Over the past five seasons, he has thrown 125 TD passes versus 49 interceptions. His completion rate hovers around 65% every year.
Last year, he was quietly on pace for 38 TDs, 10 picks and 5,000 passing yards! However, he got hurt and missed the half of the season. It was the first time he missed a game in eight years, which shows how durable he is.
He has a solid trio of WRs with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Golladay is another very underrated NFL player, in my opinion. Did you know he scored 11 TDS and amassed close to 1,200 receiving yards, despite catching balls from David Blough and Jeff Driskell for half the season?
Rookie tight ends tend to struggle, and that’s what happened to T.J. Hockenson. The former #8 overall pick from the 2019 draft is ready to burst onto the scene.
At running back, Kerryon Johnson was already a good option to have on your squad, but the team drafted D’Andre Swift out of Georgia. That will be a very nice duo in the backfield.
The odds on Stafford to be the 2019 MVP vary between +2500 and +5000. I trust Pinnacle’s line accuracy a lot, and their odds on Stafford are +2584. Thefore, grabbing +6600 at William Hill sounds like a wise choice.
POTENTIAL MVP #3: Josh Allen, QB, BUF
Best odds: +6000 at DraftKings (i.e. 61.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +2939 (Pinnacle), +4000 (William Hill), +3800 (FanDuel), +2000 (BetOnline), +5000 (10Bet), +2500 (Jazz), +5000 (bwin), +4000 (Intertops), +3300 (Bet365).
 
Don’t you see some similarities with Lamar Jackson here? I’m not claiming Josh Allen will have a season comparable to Lamar’s 2019 performance; I’m just saying both guys are in a similar condition.
The Bills have a top 5 defense, while the Ravens also had a top 5 defense last year. Both Lamar and Josh can do damage with their legs. Both play in a run-oriented offense. And yet, Lamar did win the MVP honors last year.
I can envision a scenario where Buffalo ends with a 12-4 or even a 13-3 record this year. If that happens, a Bills player is likely to be the recipient of the MVP award, and the most likely player is always the QB.
The Bills have a stout defense, and their offense is likely to take a big step.
First, the team acquired Stefon Diggs, a game-breaker on offense. Secondly, they have many young budding stars on offense who have a shot at making a leap in 2020: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox. Also, the reports in camp are very optimistic regarding rookie running back Zack Moss.
Most sportsbooks have odds on Allen between +3000 and +4000. I’ll take my chances at +6000 with DraftKings.
POTENTIAL MVP #4: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
Best odds: +10000 at DraftKings (i.e. 101.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +6987 (Pinnacle), +5000 (William Hill), +6500 (FanDuel), +7500 (BetOnline), +7000 (10Bet), +4000 (Jazz), +7000 (bwin), +6600 (Intertops), +6600 (Bet365).
 
This is going to be a bit technical. If you’ve never heard of conditional probabilities, you may not fully grasp what I’m about to discuss.
As you can see above, the most lines lie between +5000 and +7000. It makes the +10000 odds at DraftKings fairly enticing. That means he is a 100 to 1 underdog to become the 2020 MVP.
That being said,
P(Zeke wins MVP) = P(Zeke wins MVP | a RB wins MVP) * P(a RB wins MVP)
I already showed that about 20% of MVPs were running backs so the above equation becomes:
P(Zeke wins MVP) = P(Zeke wins MVP | a RB wins MVP) * 20%
The recommended play above is a good bet if Elliott has at least a 1% chance of winning the award. In order for this to happen, you want P(Zeke wins MVP | a RB wins MVP) to be at least 5%, in which case you’d obtain:
P(Zeke wins MVP) = 5% * 20% = 1%
So, the vital question is: if God were to tell you in advance that a running back will be declared the 2020 MVP, do you believe Zeke’s chances are at least 5% (i.e. 1 chance out of 20)?
Personally, I think so. There are about 12-15 RBs who hold a reasonable chance of being the most valuable player in the league. Now, Elliott is better than most of them. For this reason, I estimate that Zeke would have a 10% chance of winning the MVP under such circumstances.
So, overall my personal guess is:
P(Zeke wins MVP) = 10% * 20% = 2%.
In other words, I believe he should be a 50-to-1 underdog (which is in line with most bookmakers’ odds), not a 100-to-1 underdog.
Elliott has been great in each of his first four seasons in the NFL. He’s been pretty durable. He now has a good mix of experience and youth (25 years old). What else do you want?
POTENTIAL MVP #5: Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
Best odds: +21484 at Pinnacle (i.e. 215.84 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +8000 (William Hill), +10000 (DraftKings), +8000 (FanDuel), +9000 (10Bet), +5000 (Jazz), +15000 (bwin), +8000 (Intertops), +8000 (Bet365).
 
This is a very long shot. But the odds at Pinnacle are so much higher than other bookies, and it’s not impossible that the #1 overall pick pulls off the improbable and wins the MVP award.
The cast around him is not bad. You could do worse at WR than having A.J. Green, John Ross, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Also, Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard aren’t bad at all.
I must admit, though, that the offensive line is pretty bad and will make things difficult for Burrow. The tight end position is also a question mark with Uzomah and Sample. But hey, you cannot ask for perfect conditions when betting a 216-to-1 underdog, right?
Many college football experts have said Burrow was the most accurate passer they have ever seen. He completed 76% of his passes, and we’re not talking about short passes all the time. He was throwing down the field quite often.
One of his main strengths is above its shoulders. He is very smart, he reads defenses well and he raises his game in big nerve-wracking games. He is poised in the pocket and even though you won’t confuse him with Lamar Jackson, he knows how to avoid the rush.
Betting Joe Burrow to be the league’s MVP represents much better value than wasting your money on a lottery ticket.
POTENTIAL MVP #6: Jameis Winston, QB, NO
Best odds: +20000 at bwin (i.e. 201.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +5375 (Pinnacle), +10000 (William Hill), +10000 (DraftKings), +10000 (FanDuel), +10000 (BetOnline), +5000 (10Bet), +5000 (Jazz), +10000 (Intertops), +12500 (Bet365).
 
Here is another very long shot. It basically requires Drew Brees to get hurt within the first five weeks of the season, or else your bet is doomed.
I certainly don’t wish Brees bad luck, especially considering he seems like such a great human being. However, getting hurt at the QB position is possible, especially when you are 41 years old and not very mobile.
If Brees gets hurt, this play instantly becomes an awesome bet. Much was said about Winston’s 30 interceptions last year. But don’t forget he still threw for the 8th-most passing yards in league history with 5,109.
He did have great weapons to work with: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But the arsenal at his disposal in New Orleans is not bad either. Michael Thomas may be the best receiver in the NFL. Emmanuel Sanders is a sneaky and smart receiver. Jared Cook showed he still had gas left in the tank last year.
In the backfield, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray can be dangerous as well. Add Taysom Hill, who has been the jack-of-all-trades, and you’ve got a very potent offense!
Oh, and did I mention the Saints had one of the best offensive line last year, and all guys are returning in 2020?
The conditions would be perfect for Winston: a great supporting cast and perhaps the best mentor he could hope for in Drew Brees to help him cut down on the turnovers. Keep in mind that Winston is a former #1 overall pick with a strong arm in his mid-twenties.
IMPORTANT WARNING
I do not recommend betting the players above blindly. As is always the case in sports betting, the odds determine whether a play is a good bet or not. Therefore, I believe the picks above are good value bets, but only at the odds stated!
Thanks for reading and be ready for more NFL betting tips from me very soon!
Professor MJ

2 OFFICIAL PICKS
PICK #1: Under 6.5 Blackhawks-Oilers @ -109 odds (1.91 decimal)
PICK #2: Avalanche @ -127 odds (1.79 decimal) vs Stars
Some explanations about the under 6.5 Chicago-Edmonton pick. The odds on "under 6" was -107 in Game #1, then +102 in Game #2 and now +124 in Game #3. Line clearly inflated due to overreaction to recent results, in my humble opinion. As a contrarian, I'm taking the "under".
As for the Avs, they should be favored with a -150 line at least. Much stronger team. +46 goal differential this year versus just +3 for the Stars. Give me Colorado in this one.
2 LEANS (unofficial picks that I like, but maybe not enough to bet)
LEAN #1: Under 5.5 Bruins-Lightning @ -104 odds (1.96 decimal)
LEAN #2: Coyotes @ +115 odds (2.15 decimal) vs Predators
Best of luck fellows!
Professor MJ

1. Introduction
It was a roller-coaster ride for the Bears last year. They started with a 3-1 record before losing five of their next six meetings. They concluded the season by winning four of the last six games, but it wasn’t enough to qualify for the playoffs.
After a NFC North title in 2018, Da Bears ended with a disappointing 8-8 record last season.
The offense was often criticized (deservedly so), and changes needed to be made.

2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
Mitchell Trubisky has had an uncharacteristic journey in the NFL thus far. After being selected as the number two overall pick, he had a rookie season where he threw 7 TD passes versus 7 picks. He took a nice leap in his sophomore year with 24 TDs and 12 interceptions, while leading the team to its first division title since 2010.
QBs showing such a nice growth from year 1 to year 2 rarely crash down the following season, but that pretty much describes Trubisky’s third year in the league. He graded as the 30th-best QB in the NFL out of 37 qualifiers based on PFF rankings.
This situation was inexplicable. It’s not like the team had lost many key pieces on offense. What happened to Trubisky?
GM Ryan Pace has set up nicely a good QB battle in camp between Trubisky and newly acquired Nick Foles.
What’s interesting is Foles himself has had ups-and-downs in his career. He was outstanding in 2013 by throwing 27 TDs versus just 2 interceptions! He also led the Eagles to a Super Bowl in the 2017 season, after Carson Wentz went down to an injury. Foles also performed well in 2018.
However, he wasn’t so good in 2014, 2015 and more recently 2019. What type of quarterback will he be in the windy city? Who’s going to get the starting nod?
My own guess is Foles win the job early on. He is already familiar with the head coach, the QB coach and the offensive coordinator. Learning the playbook won’t be as difficult as if these guys had never worked together in the past.
Backup QB Chase Daniel left for a division rival: the Detroit Lions.
Overall, adding Foles over Daniel is clearly an upgrade over 2019, while also keeping in mind the fact that Trubisky may return to his previous form (which is not impossible for a young guy like him).
2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
What the heck happened to Tarik Cohen? I have always liked small and fast guys. For this reason, he had become one of my favorite guys to watch. Watching him last year (and the entire offense) was sad.
His yards per rush average went from 4.5 to 3.3. His yards per catch average went from 10.2 to 5.8. He couldn’t get going all season long.
In 2017 and 2018, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen were a great version of the thunder-and-lightning combo. Despite losing Howard, the production wasn’t supposed to drop significantly because of the acquisition of David Montgomery through the draft.
That’s not how things played out. The team went from 11th to 27th place in terms of rushing yards per game (from 2018 to 2019). Montgomery finished the year with a disappointing 3.7 yards per carry average.
Both Montgomery and Cohen will be back in 2020. Perhaps they’ll do better this year, but I don’t expect a huge upgrade either.
2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
Finally a guy that has produced consistent results in this offense: Allen Robinson!
Catching 98 balls for 1,147 yards and 7 TDs despite such bad QB play was phenomenal! You can count on him to generate good numbers again, especially in a contract year.
A former second-round pick, Anthony Miller caught 52 passes last season after catching 33 the year before. The only blemish was the number of TD receptions, which went from 7 to 2.
Miller started the year slowly following an offseason injury that made him miss some time in camp. His role could be increased after the departure of Taylor Gabriel.
The Bears pulled the plug on the Taylor Gabriel experiment. After showing some flashes with the Falcons, he never lived up to expectations in Chicago.
Again, the production from this group may be steady in 2020.
2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
I’m sorry Bears fans, but one of the worst free agent acquisitions, in my humble opinion, was Jimmy Graham for two years and $16 million. The price paid versus the production doesn’t make sense at all.
If you look at his numbers, you can see a clear decline. His first seven seasons were a success; his lowest mark according to PFF during that time span was 74.7. Then, he received a 66.0 grade in 2017. And then 59.6 in 2018, followed by 58.0 last year. To make matters worse, remember that the last two years were with the Packers, who happen to have a quarterback named Aaron Rodgers (have you heard of him?).
Trey Burton was another huge disappointment last year. After catching 54 passes a couple of years ago, he only caught 14 in eight games. He was released and picked up by the Colts.
The team drafted Cole Kmet in the second round in this year’s draft. He’s a classic tight end who can do a little bit of everything. He provides good run blocking, albeit sometimes a bit inconsistent. He doesn’t have that much experience as a pass catcher since he only started racking up decent stats last year, but he has a big catch radius. He will likely need time to develop into a solid starter.
The Bears also have Adam Shaheen in their roster, a 2nd round pick from the 2017 draft. He has bust written all over him.
As if they didn’t have enough tight ends, Chicago went on to sign Demetrius Harris, formerly of the Browns. He graded as the 66th-best tight end out of 66 qualifiers. Enough said.
This group did very little last year. A bunch of six guys combined for 46 catches. Despite the questionable moves, I expect a small upgrade. Perhaps Graham can magically rejuvenate his career?
2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
Four out of five starters are returning: Cody Whitehair, James Daniels, Charles Leno and Bobby Massie. Only Daniels graded as above-average; the others finished in the middle of the pack (or even lower).
Kyle Long announced his retirement, while semi-starter Cornelius Lucas left for Washington. The new starter on the OL will be Germain Ifedi, who made at least 13 starts in each of his first four seasons in the league (all with the Seahawks).
In summary, we have a not-so great starter being replace by a not-so great player. Therefore, we can expect similar results to 2019, which was average play.
2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
Inconsistency is a recurring theme for many players from this unit: Trubisky, Foles and Cohen.
My final conclusion is a small upgrade over 2019, mainly because of the QB position. The chances are fairly good that either Foles provides a spark, or Trubisky regains his 2018 form. However, don’t expect a MVP-type of season for any one of them.
The rest of the offense should expect similar output. Acquiring Jimmy Graham and Germain Ifedi is nothing to write home about, just as losing Taylor Gabriel isn’t a big loss either.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small upgrade
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
The interior defenders did a fairly good job. Roy Robertson-Harris, Nick Williams and Eddie Goldman all graded as above-average DLs in 2019. Only Bilal Nichols received poor grades, but he played less often.
Nick Williams left for Detroit, but the Bears expect to get Akiem Hicks in 2020. He suited up for just five games last year. He’s been a dominating force for them the previous three years. His return on the field will make a big difference.
So, despite Williams’ departure, this group should do better in 2020 than the year before, mainly because of Hicks’ return.
3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
Khalil Mack’s sack production went down in 2019 with “only” 8.5. He had recorded 12.5, 10.5, 11 and 15 in its previous four campaigns. Still, Mack finished as the #14 edge defender out of 107 guys. He is constantly disrupting plays from opposing offenses.
The Bears lost Leonard Floyd who went to the Rams, but they quick found a replacement with Robert Quinn, coming over from Dallas. Floyd is two years younger and averaged 4.6 sacks per season, while Quinn has gotten 8.9 sacks per year over his nine-year career. Quinn is a better pass rusher, while Floyd plays the run better.
All in all, I expect similar results as 2019 from this unit.
3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
One more guy who saw a dip in productivity was Roquan Smith. After receiving a 67.0 grade in his rookie season, he only got 52.4 last year. He played the run well, but his coverage and pass rushing weren’t nearly as good in 2019. I do believe the former #8 pick overall can come back very strong in 2020.
Danny Trevathan missed six games because of an injury, but he played pretty well when he was on the field. I am not worried about him.
Backups Nick Kwiatkoski and Kevin Pierre-Louis both left in free agency. Both played very well while filling in for injured starters. Their losses take a blow to Chicago’s linebacker depth.
3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara were the clear starters in 2019. Despite finishing as PFF’s number 41 CB out of 112 qualifiers, Amukamara was released by the Bears for cap reasons.
Still, the team needs to replace him. Can Buster Skrine or Kevin Toliver assume that #2 role? I’m not so sure about that…
Chicago hopes to fill the void via the selection of Jaylon Johnson in the 2nd round last April. The number one concern about him is health; he has undergone through three shoulder surgeries over the years.
Johnson’s speed and explosiveness are below average, but he makes up for it with great competitiveness and smart-play.
3.5 Safeties (S)
We are rounding the defensive side of the ball with the safeties. Things were pretty simple in 2019, as both Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Eddie Jackson played 99% of the defensive snaps. They ranked 19th and 46th out of 87 safeties, respectively, according to PFF.
The problem is Clinton-Dix is gone to Dallas. Last year the Bears vacated the vacancy created at the safety position when Adrian Amos left for Green Bay by acquiring Clinton-Dix, but now that he’s also gone they have a glaring hole at the position.
2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
The Bears allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league last season. Can we expect a similary good 2020 season? I doubt it.
First, the good news. Akiem Hicks is back from an injury that made him miss 11 games and the team acquired steady sack producer Robert Quinn from Dallas.
The bad news? Losing DL Nick Williams, DE Leonard Floyd, LBs Nick Kwiatkoski and Kevin Pierre-Louis, CB Prince Amukamara and S Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix. That’s a lot of bodies that need to be replaced. We’re talking about at least 4 new starters and some key depth.
Overall, my guess is it takes a moderate blow to the Bears’ defense. Their front seven is likely to remain very good, but the secondaries worry me. I wouldn’t fall off my chair if the team went from 4th-best in points allowed to the 10th-12th range.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Chicago Bears are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games. Convert those point spreads into win probabilities. Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software. Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons). Count the proportion of seasons where the Bears won more or less than 8.5 games. Here are the results:
OVER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 38%
Best Odds: +148 (Pinnacle)
ROI: -5.8%
UNDER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 62%
Best Odds: -130 (MyBookie.ag)
ROI: +9.7%
Tip: Bet UNDER 8.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +9.7%
Rank: 26th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -163
Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Bears’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -5 vs DET, 0 vs GB, -3.5 vs HOU, -1.5 vs IND, 0 vs MIN, +2.5 vs NO, -5 vs NYG, -1 vs TB. ROAD: +2 @ ATL, -2.5 @ CAR, +1.5 @ DET, +4.5 @ GB, +1 @ JAX, +3.5 @ LAR, +4 @ MIN, +3 @ TEN. Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
TOMORROW: I'll talk about the team whose ROI is the 25th-highest in the league, the Green Bay Packers!
I hope you found this article insightful, thanks for reading!
Professor MJ
 

NHL System Picks for Friday March 6th
BIG RED ALERT!!! ???
For just the 2nd time ALL SEASON, we have a play that fits 4 betting systems at a time so keep reading until the end!
The month of March has been very good to us!
Another winning day last night with a +1.73-unit profit.
RECORD:
Bets won = 102 Bets lost = 129 Profit = +2.80 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
5 STARS = Canucks (@ +111 or 2.11 odds, vs Avalanche) Vancouver meets the criteria for betting under "The Big Upset", "The Porous Defense", "The Snapped Winning Streak" and "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angles.
Here are the secrets behing "The Big Upset" betting strategy:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 in decimal format (i.e. +170 in American format). If Team B's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C if its money line is greater than 1.667 in decimal format (i.e. -150 in American format, to avoid betting big favorites which did not prove to be profitable)."
This sytem led to a 27.81-unit gain over 600 bets.
Colorado's last game was a 4-3 loss against the Ducks, a huge upset which happened to be one of our picks that day.
For this reason (and because of the other three systems), we are going to bet AGAINST the Avalanche tonight.
Have a GREAT weekend!!!
Professor MJ