ProfessorMJ
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Posts posted by ProfessorMJ
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NHL PICK FOR MARCH 10
We came close from hitting our big underdog pick yesterday! The Predators took a 2-0 lead in the second period, but could not hold on and ended up losing in overtime. Still, it turned out to be a good pick, nonetheless.
RECORD:
Bets won = 0
Bets lost = 1
Profit = -1 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from 10Bet at 9:04 am Eastern Time):
Minnesota Wild (@ +110 odds) vs Golden Knights
This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting system, which goes as follows:
Bet AGAINST a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Make the bet only if the team you are betting has a money line that's better than -150 (i.e. 1.667 in decimal).
This strategy, over many seasons, produced a 87.34-unit gain on 1045 bets (a 8.4% ROI).
In Vegas' last game, they had their 6 game winning streak snapped by Minnesota when they lost 2-0.
Good luck!
Professor MJ
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Hello hockey fans!
I'm a statistics University professor from Canada, and I love to help fellow sports investors grow their bankrolls! ?
After analyzing data on several full NHL seasons, I have developed 10 winning betting systems. ?
Those strategies are all in accodance with my contrarian approach, except a single one.
I posted my NHL system picks last year, and I will do it again starting from today.
We'll keep track of the record. We will be RISKING 1 unit on each play. Sounds good? ?
Let's get the party started! ?
Today's pick of the day (odds from Sports Interaction at 2:39 PM Eastern Time):
Nashville Predators (at +180 odds, or 2.80 in decimal) at Carolina Hurricanes
This pick is based on "The Hot Teams Matchup" betting system, which goes as follows:
Bet a road team coming 1 or straight win(s) when facing a home team coming off 3+ straight wins.
This strategy, over many seasons, yielded a 66.87-unit profit over 483 plays (a 13.8% ROI).
Let's get off to a good start!
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Written Monday February 1st, 2021 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Last year, I crushed Vegas sportsbooks by winning $8,330 USD on Super Bowl proposition bets. Will I enjoy the same success wagering online this year?
First, it is critical that you understand HOW the picks are made.
I have set up an Excel spreadsheet where I track the lines from 15-20 online sportsbooks on all possible prop bets. The file has several thousands of rows.
This is a gold mine of information allowing me to find great bargains very quickly.
I’ll do my best to explain to you how it works. The best way to do so is via a concrete example, so let’s dive right away into the first pick.
SUPER BOWL PROP BET #1: CHRIS JONES OVER 2.5 TACKLES+ASSISTS (@130 odds with 10Bet)
First, let me show you the lines on this market from five different online bookies:
The lines from a given sportsbook can be converted into “fair odds.”
Let’s look at the odds from William Hill Canada: +110 on the over, -140 on the under. What would be “fair odds”, i.e. odds if the bookie wasn’t taking a commission (also called the “vigorish”)?
I do not want to bore you with the mathematical details, but the answer is: +123 on the over, -123 on the under. If you wish to know how I came up with those numbers, I invite you to read the following article I wrote a few years ago (https://www.professormj.com/pages/sports-betting-lessons-value-betting).
Then, you can convert those “fair odds” into “fair probabilities.” Again, you can check out the article above for more details, but in the case of this exemple we obtain a fair probability of 44.9% on the over and 55.1% on the under.
To make things clear: William Hill Canada believes Chris Jones has a 44.9% chance of posting more than 2.5 tackles+assists (and obviously a 55.1% chance of recording less than 2.5 tackles+assists).
You can repeat the same process for each sportsbook. And then take the average across all sportsbooks who have lines on this specific proposition bet.
In the Chris Jones example, the average true probability on the over is 47.1% versus 52.9% on the under. This is literally the average “opinion” of the numerous sportsbooks.
If you convert those true probabilities back into odds, you get +112 on the over versus -112 on the under.
Those are the critical numbers!
They represent the break-even odds, or the minimum odds required to bet.
The conclusion goes like this:
Bet over 2.5 tackles+assists by Chris Jones if you get odds that are better than +112 (or 2.12 in decimal format);
Bet under 2.5 tackles+assists by Chris Jones if you get odds that are better than -112 (or 1.89 in decimal format).
Now, since 10Bet is offering +130 odds on the over, that’s a good value wager!
Hopefully, your head is not spinning too much from reading all of those numbers.
Thank God, I do not need to do these calculations manually for each prop bet! The lone task required is to enter the odds for each prop bet from lots of sportsbooks. My Excel spreadsheet does the rest!
See what it looks like:
SUPER BOWL PROP BET #2: SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN UNDER 1.5 YARD (@-138 odds with Bet365)
Let’s take a look at the lines from a few online bookmakers:
Clearly, Bet365 has a weird line on the under. That’s why I am taking advantage of it.
SUPER BOWL PROP BET #3: NO ONSIDE KICK ATTEMPT (@-175 odds with Bodog/Bovada)
Again, let’s take a look at the different odds on this prop bet:
You can tell very quickly which sportsbook has a soft line: Bodog/Bovada at -175 odds on “NO”.
Believe me, the Super Bowl becomes so much more exciting when you have 10-20-30 prop bets going on. I really had a blast last year.
Enjoy the game my friend!!!
Professor MJ
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Written Thursday January 28th, 2021 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
We lost our lone official pick in the Conference Championship round, which dropped our postseason record against the spread (ATS) from 5-1 to 5-2. That’s still a great record!
During the regular season, the picks went 36-31-4.
So, overall, we now boast a 41-33-4 ATS record, a 55.4% win rate. Yay!
It’s time for our final betting prediction of the season with the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs facing the Tampa Bay Bucs in Super Bowl LV.
Let’s do this!
SUPER BOWL: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3 or -3.5) VS TAMPA BAY BUCS
Sharp bettors often place their bets not very long after the odds hit the board. Once the Conference Championship games were over, the line opened at 3.5 in favor of Kansas City. Early money went to the Bucs, which led the point spread to drop to three points.
Since then, most of the action has gone on the Chiefs. From what I’ve read, the number of bets has seen a 3:1 ratio favoring Kansas City, while the total money wagered is even more tilted with a 4:1 ratio.
All of this betting action tells me one thing: the wise guys took Tampa Bay, while the general public is hammering the Chiefs.
Here is another interesting note: over the past 13 Super Bowls, the early action turned out to be right on 10 occasions. That’s right: sharp money has been a winner in 10 of the past 13 Super Bowls! That makes me want to side with the Bucs even more.
I thought Tampa’s defensive line was super impressive in Green Bay. They sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, despite facing one of the top pass protecting offensive lines in football.
They will now face a patchwork OL that will now be without their starting left tackle, Eric Fisher, who got hurt against the Bills during the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs were already missing their right tackle, Mitchell Schwartz, who has little chance of suiting up for the Big Game. And they have had to deal with the absence of their starting left guard, Kelechi Osemele, since October. All of those losses are a big blow when facing such a ferocious Bucs pass rush that finished 5th in sacks this season.
The Bucs will be looking to avenge a 27-to-24 loss back in Week 12. In that game, the Chiefs stormed out of the gate by grabbing an early 17-0 lead through the first quarter. In that quarter alone, Tyreek Hill caught 7 passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns. What an incredible performance over just one quarter of play!
Here are some noteworthy trends for you:
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The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games as favorites, but 4-1 ATS as playoff favorites;
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Kansas City has beaten the spread just once over their last 9 games played on grass;
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Both teams have done well recently when squaring off with a team with a winning record: the Chiefs are 11-5 ATS and the Bucs 5-2 ATS under such circumstances;
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Tampa has beaten the spread the last four times they have been underdogs.
In light of all of this, I am putting my money on Tampa against the spread. The best spread currently available after looking at 10 different online sportsbooks on January 28 is Bucs +3.5 at -115 odds (bwin).
Official pick: Bucs +3.5 at -115 odds
FIRST QUARTER TOTAL
In the Super Bowl’s first quarter, we often see both teams studying each other. They take small jabs at each other, but rarely hit a knockout punch.
Also, you see more often receivers dropping catchable balls or QBs throwing less accurate passes. It usually takes a bit of time before guys settle down.
On defense, you see a lot of intensity. Players have been waiting two full weeks to finally hit somebody.
For these reasons, I am leaning towards betting the “under” in the first quarter.
Lean: Under 10.5 first quarter at -120 odds
CRUSHING SUPER BOWL PROPOSITION BETS
To me, the Super Bowl is like Christmas, but maybe not for the reasons that you might think of.
Every year, the Super Bowl comes with a wide array of proposition bets. There are so many of them that there is NO WAY the sportsbooks can hope to have each market priced adequately. There will always be many soft lines.
Last year, I traveled to Las Vegas so that I could place bigger bets. I spent three full days tracking the lines from many sportsbooks. I was the nerdy guy sitting on the floor of casinos, doing his calculations via a huge Excel spreadsheet.
I ended up placing 11 bets, most of which having positive odds (which means they were underdogs to win). And yet, I finished with a 9-2 record and racking up $8,330 US in net profit.
I will be at it once again this year, but from the comfort of my home. Unfortunately, COVID-19 will prevent me from heading to the sin city.
I will spend countless hours tracking the lines from at least 10 sportsbooks and looking for the best edges.
I am going to share a few picks on prop bets next week via a YouTube video, but you have the opportunity to receive ALL bets offering great value directly in your mailbox. Simply follow this link for details:
https://www.professormj.com/products/super-bowl-lv-proposition-bets
A big, big thank you for following my weekly NFL column every week, I appreciate you!
Enjoy the Super Bowl my friend!!!
Professor MJ
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Written Wednesday January 20th, 2021 at 9 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
After going 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in the NFL Wildcard Round, we went a perfect 3-0 last week! The playoffs have been very profitable to us so far with a 5-1 ATS record.
Now, we have two great matchups on the menu for the Conference Championship games. I’ve got one official pick, and one lean for you.
Also, I will conclude this article by telling you my plan regarding the Super Bowl proposition bets this year. Remember that I crushed Vegas bookies last season by coming back home with more than $8k in profit.
Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s picks for the NFC and AFC Championship games!
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME #1: TAMPA BAY BUCS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3)
As I was watching the second half of the Bucs versus Saints game last week, I was thinking that neither team was very impressive. Both teams had ups and downs, especially on offense. In my mind, the winner would probably end up losing in Green Bay in the NFC Championship game.
I love anticipating what the point spread will be on each game. In this case, I was expecting the Packers to be 4-point favorites, and that’s exactly how the line opened. At that price, I was comfortable betting Green Bay. Now that the line has dropped to 3.5, and then 3 (as of Wednesday morning, which is when I wrote this article) I am definitely siding with the team from the frozen tundra.
Here are four arguments favoring Green Bay in this spot:
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Argument #1: The rest factor. The Packers will be at home for the third straight week, while the Bucs will be traveling for the third consecutive week.
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Argument #2: The revenge factor. Do you really want to face Aaron Rodgers a second time after you have crushed him earlier in the year? I don’t think so. Back in Week 6, Tampa hammered Matt LaFleur’s team by a 38-to-10 score. That’s the only game all season where Rodgers did not throw a single TD pass. Oh man, he will be super focused to get some payback!
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Argument #3: The matchup. Tampa’s defense ranked number one in the league against the run. That’s great, but they finished 18th in terms of passer rating allowed. That’s very bad news when facing Rodgers and company. I know that they held them in check earlier this season, but it’s not going to happen again.
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Argument #4: The extra day. Green Bay gets an additional day to rest and game plan after playing last Saturday’s first game of the day, while the Bucs played the late game Sunday.
I could have added the cold weather, as it is expected to be -6 degrees Celsius at Lambeau Field. However, Tom Brady has played many games in the cold with the Pats, but the rest of his teammates might not enjoy the weather too much, though… So I guess that could be argument #4B!
I do like the Packers enough to put some money at risk.
Official pick: Packers -3
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME #2: BUFFALO BILLS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3)
Here is how my point spread prediction went for this matchup: I was expecting the Chiefs to be favored by 6 points if Mahomes plays, while I anticipated K.C. to be 2.5- or 3-point favorites if Chad Henne is the starter.
For this reason, I was shocked when the line opened at 2.5 since, in my mind, Mahomes had a 50-50 shot of suiting up for the AFC Championship game. Since then, the line moved to 3, but it is back at 2.5 with some sportsbooks.
That completely changed my strategy. If the Bills had been 6-point underdogs, as I expected, I was going to put my money on them. But with such a small point spread, I believe the value lies on Kansas City.
Don’t get me wrong: I believe Buffalo has enough talent to beat the Chiefs, even with Mahomes on the field. However, the Chiefs’ QB holds a 25-1 record since November 2019. That cannot be ignored.
K.C. players also have more playoff experience. I wouldn’t mind betting Buffalo +6, but I don’t think putting money on Buffalo +3 is a good idea, let alone +2.5.
Still, there are quite a few things going Buffalo’s way. First, they post a 7-1-2 record against the spread (ATS) as road underdogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites (including 0-4 as home favorites).
Also, don’t forget the famous revenge factor. Back in Week 6, Kansas City topped Buffalo 26-to-17, thanks to 245 rushing yards. The Bills simply couldn’t stop the running game. They have improved since then (as shown last week against the Ravens!), but that is still concerning.
So, my final decision is to stay away from this game from a betting perspective due to conflicting arguments. However, if I was forced to bet, I would go with the Chiefs -3. At the time of writing, Sports Interaction has the Chiefs -2.5 at -112 odds, which is pretty tempting.
Lean: Chiefs -3
CRUSHING SUPER BOWL PROPOSITION BETS
Do you remember last year’s “Crushing Super Bowl Proposition Bets Project”, where I flew to Vegas a few days before the big game, so that I could place bigger bets and shop for the best lines? I had posted a series of seven videos where I detailed my adventure and showed you my betting tickets.
Just to refresh your mind, I ended up making 11 bets; four of them were favorites, while seven were underdogs. In other words, my expected record on those plays was 4-7. Things played out almost perfectly as I finished with a 9-2 record, while racking up $8,330 USD in net profit.
Some of you have already emailed me to ask whether I was going to do it again this year. That was the plan without a doubt, but COVID-19 will prevent me from making the trip, unfortunately. Do I really want to spend 3-4 days in Vegas without my girlfriend and kids, and then having to isolate myself for 14 more days without seeing them? Sports betting is a passion to me, but my family is important too.
That being said, in terms of proposition bets, the Super Bowl is like Christmas to me. There are so many things you can wager on that sportsbooks cannot keep odds that are accurate on each bet all the time.
Every year, there are TONS of weak lines that can be exploited. It’s pretty common that when the kickoff of the Super Bowl comes, all of my online sportsbook accounts are empty because I have wagered all of it on numerous proposition bets. And to be honest, I don’t remember a Super Bowl where I ended up with losses on those bets.
Even though I won’t be headed to Vegas, I will still be keeping track of the lines from many online sportsbooks on all prop bets. I always use an Excel spreadsheet where I enter the lines from 10-20 bookies, which allows me to estimate accurately fair odds. It is then easy to spot lines that are out of whack, and therefore exploitable. Those are the lines that we want to hammer.
I will find plenty of bargains for sure again this year. I will share a few of them via YouTube videos (maybe 3-5), while also offering the option of subscribing to a package where you receive ALL proposition bets that offer amazing value, as soon as I find them. I cannot promise a specific number of value wagers, but it should be at least 15-20. If you’re interested, you can sign up now by following this link:
https://www.professormj.com/products/super-bowl-lv-proposition-bets
Have fun this weekend!
Professor MJ
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Written Thursday January 14th, 2021 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Last week in the Wildcard Round I made three official picks against the spread: the lone losing bet was the Bills -6.5, while the other two were winners (Ravens -3 and Saints -10).
Many people have asked me to recap my preseason win total predictions. Remember that I previewed each of the 32 NFL teams, while making a pick on the over/under for their win total. Those plays were largely based on the simulation of one million seasons using the projected point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
It turned out that 20 picks were right versus 12 that were wrong, a nice 62.5% win rate. I ended up racking up more than $8,000 on those bets. I wanted to go to Vegas to place larger bets, but COVID-19 prevented me from making the trip, unfortunately.
It’s now time for my Divisional Round picks against the spread. Buckle up, here we go!!!
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #1: LOS ANGELES RAMS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)
When the line opened at 7, I was clearly leaning towards the Rams. Early money agreed with me and went heavily on Los Angeles, so sportsbooks had to drop the line to 6.5. Since then, I have heard that bettors are hammering the Packers.
After analyzing the game in-depth, I am now betting Green Bay as 6.5-point favorites. Most of the time, I go against the public, but not this time.
The Packers are the number one seed and coming off a bye week. As mentioned several times this season, getting additional time to heal and gameplan has produced a much bigger advantage to great teams, as opposed to weaker squads who do not seem to make good use of this extra time. I believe we all agree Green Bay is a solid team.
On top of that, the Packers will be facing a banged up team. Jared Goff, John Wolford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are all hurt. They will likely suit up Saturday, but won’t be 100% for sure.
Also, L.A. is not used to playing in cold weather. We are expecting below-zero temperature, a situation where Aaron Rodgers is 29-7 straight up.
The Rams defense has been very impressive this season, but here is a jaw-dropping statistic: they have allowed an average of 13.5 points per game at home versus 23.5 on the road. That’s a huge difference! They haven’t been nearly as stifling as visitors this year. I do believe Rodgers and company will find a way to move the ball, especially if Aaron Donald is slowed down by his injured ribs.
Green Bay is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with the Rams. They are 11-6 as home favorites since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach.
Rodgers and Goff did face off against each other in 2018, a game in which the Rams won 29-27 in Los Angeles. Rodgers will get the victory by at least 7 points this time around.
Official pick: Packers -6.5
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #2: BALTIMORE RAVENS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5)
Born in Florida, Lamar Jackson said it would be his first time playing in the snow, if the forecast is right about getting close to an inch of snow this Saturday in Orchard Park, NY. That would make the field more slippery, and therefore more difficult for him to shake and bake as a runner.
That’s one of the reason why I’m going with Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites. The Bills will also be at home for the third straight week, while Baltimore will be traveling for a third consecutive time.
Also, the Ravens lose one day of preparation after playing last Sunday and now playing Saturday. That’s not a huge blow, but still worth mentioning.
Some things are scaring me, though. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs. They also match up fairly well against Buffalo since they led the league in yards-per-carry, while Buffalo’s run defense finished 25th in that category. Also, the Bills pass the ball often, which happens to be Baltimore’s strength on defense (they were much softer against the run this year).
Still, I’ll go with Buffalo, whose offense has been much more convincing. The Ravens were struggling against a bad Titans defense last week, until Lamar scored on a 48-yard scamper that completely changed the game.
Despite a recent surge by Baltimore, the Bills seem to be the stronger team and they will be at home on a cold day. They have been one of the hottest teams in the league during the latter portion of the regular season, and they have what it takes to win their first Super Bowl ever.
Official pick: Bills -2.5
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #3: CLEVELAND BROWNS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10)
This won’t be an official pick since I don’t have that much confidence, but if I were forced to bet this game I’d bet Cleveland as 10-point dogs.
However, I do not like the fact that the Chiefs are coming off a bye. Under such circumstances, Andy Reid is 20-3 in his career, an astounding record! Kansas City will also be at home for the fourth straight week, which means they didn’t have to travel and will be well-rested.
Still, I am leaning towards the Browns due to their strong running game facing the Chiefs’ front seven that has been soft at times. Cleveland will be looking to control the clock and leave Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines.
After throwing 7 interceptions over the first 7 games of the season, Baker Mayfield has thrown just one in its past 10 matches! He has significantly improved, and he seems to be playing better since Odell Beckham went down to an injury.
The Chiefs have beaten the spread in 5 of their past 6 matchups at home against a team with a winning record, but they are just 1-6 ATS as favorites recently.
One more thing prevents me from pulling the trigger on this one: was Cleveland’s win in Pittsburgh last week their Super Bowl? Their subconscious might feel like they’ve already accomplished something great, and they may not be as hungry this week in K.C.
Lean: Browns +10
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #4: TAMPA BAY BUCS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3)
You know how much I love the revenge factor. Beating the same opponent three times within the same season is very hard. That’s the challenge the Saints will be facing this Sunday. And that’s one of the reasons I’ll put my money on Tampa.
Am I super confident the Bucs will advance to the NFC Championship Game? No. The Saints might win a close game. If you back New Orleans, your ticket will be a winner only if New Orleans wins the game by 4 points or more. To me, that’s less likely to occur than Tampa either winning the game or losing by less than a field goal.
Sure, the Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with Sean Payton. They were also 1-4 ATS as road underdogs recently.
However, since their shameful 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 9, Tampa has scored an average of 34 points per game. It took them more time to develop chemistry on offense, and they have since added Antonio Brown to the mix.
New Orleans has beaten the spread the last four times they were home favorites, but they post a disappointing 1-5 ATS record as playoff favorites over the most recent years.
I expect a very tight game that could go either way, in which case I prefer to side with the underdog.
Official pick: Bucs +3
Enjoy the games!
Professor MJ
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Written Thursday January 7th, 2021 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
First, let’s recap the performance of the NFL picks against the spread (ATS) for the entire 2020 season:
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5 STARS: 4-3 record
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4 STARS: 9-4-1 record
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3 STARS: 10-11-1 record
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2 STARS: 4-9-2 record
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1 STAR: 9-4 record
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OVERALL: 36-31-4 record (a 53.7% win rate)
If you are betting at -110 odds, you need to win 52.4% of your bets in order to net a profit.
When wagering at -105 odds, that figure is 51.2%.
In other words, this year’s NFL tips led to a small profit overall (but still a gain nonetheless!).
Next week, I’ll show you how my preseason predictions about each team’s win total went. As you’ll see, it did incredibly well and you certainly turned a great profit if you tailed those plays!
During the regular season, I did not make a pick on all games. For entertainment purposes, I’ll do it in the playoffs. I will let you know how much confidence I have in each pick.
The best part of the NFL season is coming up, so let’s dive right in!
WILD CARD GAME #1: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-6.5)
We are starting strong with my top pick of the weekend: I’m putting my money on the Bills in this matchup.
Can you believe Buffalo has beaten the spread in each of their last eight games? That’s unbelievable!
Only four teams ended the season by beating the spread on 8+ consecutive games. All of them were winning wagers in their first playoff game.
The Colts suffered a big blow in Week 16 when they lost their star left tackle Anthony Castonzo. The team absolutely needs to protect Philip Rivers well because he is a statue in the pocket, and he tends to get bottled up easily.
To me, Rivers having no mobility whatsoever is a big factor, as opposed to Josh Allen who can escape the pressure on a regular basis.
Also, Indy is great defending the run, but they weren’t nearly as good against the pass where they finished in the middle of the pack in terms of passer rating allowed. Now facing a passing team, that could spell trouble for Indianapolis.
The Colts defense overall slowed down as the season progressed. Indeed, they allowed an average of 19.7 points per game through their first nine meetings, while that number increased to 26.4 in the final seven matches.
The Bills defense did the exact opposite and seems to be peaking at the right time. They surrendered 28 points per game in the first six contests versus 21 points over the last 10 games.
The temperature is expected to be below zero degree Celsius this Saturday. Philip Rivers played his entire career in the warm weather of San Diego and Los Angeles before joining the Colts who play in a stadium covered by a dome.
Buffalo wins big and finally gets its first playoff victory since 1995!
Official pick: Bills -6.5
WILD CARD GAME #2: LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5)
I am not going to bet this game, but if I was forced to do it I’d back the Rams here.
The situation at quarterback is unclear for Los Angeles, but the latest reports suggest Jared Goff should be under center.
If he is unable to go, John Wolford will take the field. He did better than expected in a must-win game last week. He’s not as good as Goff as a passer, but he was a threat as a runner.
I also like the fact that the Rams are expected to get three key players back this weekend: wide receiver Cooper Kupp, left tackle Andrew Whitworth and defensive end Michael Brockers.
Seattle’s defense improved a lot late in the season, while L.A.’s defense was strong all season long. This could be a defensive battle, in which case I prefer to go with the underdog.
Still, I am not going to pull the trigger on the Rams. Seattle has won 11 consecutive playoff games when favored. They also post a great 6-1 ATS record in wild card games.
Lean: Rams +3.5
WILD CARD GAME #3: TAMPA BAY BUCS (-8.5) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
I won’t put money at risk in this game either, but I am leaning towards the Bucs.
Alex Smith appeared even more limited than usual last week in Philadelphia, and he really played poorly.
Washington’s running game couldn’t get going all night long, and it led to a bad outing by the offense. Now facing the top run defense in the league, how are they going to score points?
I simply do not trust Alex Smith to light up the scoreboard, especially with his top two threats, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, being banged up.
So why am I not betting this game then? There are a few numbers and trends that scare me.
Since 1970, only three teams were road favorites by 6+ points in the playoffs; all of them lost straight up!
Also, the Bucs are 0-4 in primetime games this season. They were really awful in such games.
Finally, the only other two squads qualifying for the postseason despite a losing record both covered in their first playoff game.
Lean: Bucs -8.5
WILD CARD GAME #4: BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3 OR -3.5) AT TENNESSEE TITANS
This time we have a pick that I like enough to put money at risk. In this matchup of the two best running attacks in the league, I am betting the Ravens as 3-point favorites.
First, how could I omit mentioning the famous revenge factor, which is largely in favor of Baltimore? Not only did they lose 30-to-24 in overtime back in Week 11, but the Ravens were ousted from the playoffs last year by those same Titans by a 28-to-12 score.
Both of these games occurred in Baltimore. The Ravens will be fired up to avenge those losses, and they won’t slow down even if they take the lead this Saturday.
The Baltimore train has been picking up some steam recently. John Harbaugh’s team has beaten the spread in each of their final six games. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past six road playoff games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in January.
A piece of information that may be flying under the radar is the fact that Tennessee has three offensive linemen listed as questionable: Rodger Saffold, Ben Jones and Dennis Kelly. Even if they all suit up this Sunday, they are nicked up and could struggle against a tough Baltimore front.
If you like betting totals, you may consider grabbing the over for two reasons. All five times that the Titans were underdogs this year, the game went over the total. Secondly, this will be just the third time that a wild card game has a total of 55 points or more. In the previous two instances, the game ended with exactly 73 points scored.
Official pick: Ravens -3
Lean: Over 55
WILD CARD GAME #5: CHICAGO BEARS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-10)
This is the third pick that I like enough to call it an “official” pick: I’m grabbing the Saints as 10-point favorites.
The Bears have a fairly weak offensive line, so they are likely to struggle against the ferocious Saints defense.
Also, Chicago is likely to miss a key piece of their defense due to injury: linebacker Roquan Smith. He exited the regular season finale against the Packers with an elbow injury. It looks like he dislocated his elbow and probably won’t be available this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Saints have a good shot to get both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas on the field. That should be a big boost to their offense.
There are several statistics favoring New Orleans:
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Since 2011, double-digit favorites are 7-1 ATS in playoff games;
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The Bears are 0-4 ATS over the last two years as underdogs of 6 points or more;
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Chicago is 0-6 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record;
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Da Bears have a disappointing 6-18 ATS record after a double-digit home loss;
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The Saints are 4-0 ATS following a win by at least 14 points.
Based on these arguments, I’m taking the Saints but for some reason I remain cautious and won’t go big on this one. I still prefer Buffalo and Baltimore this week.
Official pick: Saints -10
WILD CARD GAME #6: CLEVELAND BROWNS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6)
I am clearly avoiding this game. Way too many uncertainties surrounding this game.
The Browns had some COVID-19 cases, which will prevent head coach Kevin Stefanski, star left guard Joel Bitonio and defensive end Olivier Vernon from taking the field.
Other guys are uncertain to suit up this Sunday, including three offensive linemen (Tretter, Teller, Conklin) and a couple of cornerbacks (Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson). Who will play and who will miss the game? I prefer to avoid putting money at risk on this great AFC North matchup.
The only wager I could consider making is betting the over. Why? The over has gone 9-1 with Big Ben under center in home playoff games. Also, the over is 11-3 when teams meet two weeks in a row.
Lean: Over 47.5
This should be a fantastic weekend of football, so enjoy it guys! I’ll be back next week for more betting tips for the Divisional Round.
Best of luck with your plays!
Professor MJ
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Written Wednesday December 23rd, 2020 at 1 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
After a series of five straight weeks without a negative record against the spread (ATS), we underwent a bad Week 15. Indeed, we went 0-2-1, including the 5-star pick that lost badly.
I certainly did not expect the Steelers to play that poorly against a weak division rival on national television after losing two consecutive games. That was an awful performance by Pittsburgh.
It was a reminder that we cannot win every week! Losing runs are inevitable in the sports betting industry, unfortunately!
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track right away!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): CHICAGO BEARS -7.5 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Chicago is 5-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more. They are clearly surging and the light has turned on for Mitchell Trubisky. After crushing the Texans, Da Bears pulled off the upset in Minnesota last week.
Trubisky has completed more than 70% of his passes in each of his last three outings, which is impressive! During this time period, he has tossed 5 TD passes versus a single interception. He is also a decent runner, when necessary. There is no reason to believe he cannot do it again when facing a vulnerable Jags defense.
Another guy that has been on fire lately is running back David Montgomery. He has averaged 109 rushing yards over his past four games, while scoring a total of six touchdowns. His yards-per-carry average during these four meetings has been even more impressive: a whopping 6.1!
The Bears defense remains a steady force and they should create problems to whatever quarterback will be under center for Jacksonville. I believe Chicago wins this one by a good margin.
PICK #2 (2 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2 VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Enough is enough. The bad streak must end for Mike Tomlin’s squad.
In what should be a fairly cold day in Pittsburgh, I could see Philip Rivers struggling, especially considering he is not mobile and about to face a feisty pass rush. Indianapolis will be forced to make quick throws, which will make them more predictable.
The Steelers are showing a great 15-4-2 ATS record in their last 21 games as home underdogs. That’s pretty convincing!
Meanwhile, Indy has beaten the spread just once in their last five trips to Pittsburgh.
Big Ben looked awful last week and he is now facing a pretty tough Colts defense. However, Indianapolis is better defending the run, but the Steelers happen to throw the ball very often.
I think the Steelers outlast the Colts in a tough, physical and low-scoring game.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2 AT DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys run defense ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per carry. As for Philly, they hold the second-best yards-per-rush average in the entire league. That’s a good recipe for success, especially after switching from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts, the latter being a much more dangerous QB as a runner.
Hurts has really been impressive in his first two starts with 4 TD passes and zero interception, while rushing for an average of 84.5 yards per game in those matches. And that included a game against the stout Saints defense!
The Cowboys have a good trio of receivers, but Dalton has been fairly inconsistent. He has a low yards per attempt average and he missed many easy throws last weekend. Also, Philadelphia’s defense is a notch better than Dallas’, and their front four should give problems to the Cowboys offensive line.
The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs, but 1-4 ATS following a straight up win.
One interesting statistic: during the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, the favorite has beaten the spread eight times.
Ultimately, I trust Jalen Hurts to be able to extend drives both with his arm and his legs more than Andy Dalton. Philly takes this game.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): NEW YORK JETS +9.5 VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Jets are coming off a stunning upset win over the Rams last week, so many people will anticipate a letdown here. I don’t expect New York to come up with another victory, but this spread seems pretty high to me.
The Browns have more incentive for sure, but they will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. Cleveland has beaten the spread just once over the last seven contests where they were road favorites.
Meanwhile, the Jets present a nice 9-3-1 ATS record at home against teams with a winning record. You might also be surprised to hear New York has beaten the spread in four of their last five games in December.
Cleveland relies a lot on its running game on offense. That’s good news for the Jets, whose run defense ranks 8th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. It will come down to whether they can slow down Baker Mayfield, who has been on a roll. He is susceptible to making mistakes, though.
Crowder, Perriman and Mims are good enough to allow the Jets offense to move the ball against an average Cleveland defense. Running back Ty Johnson has also provided a good spark on some plays for New York.
I like New York to keep it within 9 points.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
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LEAN #1: Texans -8.5 vs Bengals (Cincy won’t play with the same intensity after a hard-fought game in Pittsburgh last Monday, they also lose one day of rest from playing Monday, Texans mad after losing two close calls against the Colts recently, Houston holds an 8-2 ATS record in the last 10 meetings with the Bengals);
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LEAN #2: Titans +3.5 at Packers (I don’t feel good at all fading Aaron Rodgers in a primetime game, especially with one extra day of rest and after being at home in four of the past five weeks, but I’m still going to do it. Packers are 1-6 ATS after an outright win, while Tennessee is 7-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record);
Merry Christmas to all of you!!! I am super grateful to have such great followers like you!!
Professor MJ
- harry_rag and Sportwetten
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Written Friday December 18th, 2020 at 8 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
We did not experience a losing week for the fifth straight time. We finished Week 14 with a 3-3 record against the spread (ATS).
Most importantly, the 5-star pick was a winner. We grabbed the Titans -7 at the Jaguars, which turned out to be an easy winner.
During the regular season, I tend to pick more underdogs than favorites. But when we get towards the final weeks of the year, I feel like the cream rises to the top and we observe great teams imposing their will on less-motivated and less-talented squads. That’s why I’m going with more favorites than usual this week.
Oddly enough, we only have three official picks this week, but one of them has the highest five-star rating. Such predictions are 4-2 this year, and an impressive 9-4 since I started this Professor MJ brand three years ago.
Let’s rolllllllll!!!!!!!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -13 AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
Both Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen are bad quarterbacks. Plain and simple. Since Joe Burrow got hurt, Cincinnati’s offense has scored 17, 7 and 7 points in their three matches. There is absolutely no reason to believe it will get better against the feisty Pittsburgh defense. They are going to eat them alive.
The Steelers have recorded the most interceptions this season. They also have a ferocious front seven that puts a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They are going up against a weak Bengals offensive line, so the result will be catastrophic for Cincy, unless Boyd, Higgins or Green can somehow break a long TD.
The Steelers have lost two straight games. It’s never a good spot to face an elite team after a couple of bad performances because you know they won’t take the game lighly. That’s especially true considering this is a primetime game. And they are facing a division rival.
Let’s end with an astounding statistic: the Steelers have a mind-blowing 16-3-2 ATS record over their past 21 meetings in Cincinnati. That’s remarkable!
In other words, we have all the ingredients for a blowout. There is no way Pittsburgh comes into this game unfocused. I expect them to win by at least 17 points, but it could very well end with a 30-point margin as well.
PICK #2 (2 STARS): INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7.5 VS HOUSTON TEXANS
I am a fan of the revenge factor, which would have a tendency to favor the Texans here since they lost 26-to-20 against the Colts a couple of weeks ago. Still, my money will be on Indy this weekend.
The Colts have beaten the spread the last five times they faced Houston. Even more impressive is the fact that Indianapolis holds a 12-3-2 ATS record in the past 17 meetings with the Texans, wow!
Also, the Texans will be on the road for the fifth time over the past seven weeks. That’s a lot of traveling recently.
Running back David Johnson is expected to be back in Houston’s backfield, but he has not been effective this year, nor Duke Johnson. The Colts run D has been superb this season, surrendering more than 75 rushing yards only to Derrick Henry. That included holding in check good runners like Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs. That will make the Texans unidimensional on offense.
Meanwhile, Frank Reich’s team will have plenty of ways to put points on the board. The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Things will get even worse with nose tackle Brandon Dunn and safety Justin Reid getting hurt last week.
Star left tackle Anthony Castonzo made a return from injury last week on a limited basis. He should see more action this week. The mismatch in the trenches will be incredibly in favor of Indy. The Colts running game has been ordinary this year, but rookie Jonathan Taylor seems to have found his rhythm. Indeed, he has rushed for 90+ yards in each of his last three contests.
To make matters worse, Houston pass defense is also atrocious. It was already among the league’s worst units, and it got even worse when its top cornerback, Bradley Roby, got slammed with a six-game suspension.
The Texans have nothing to play for, while the Colts need this win to keep up with the Titans atop the AFC South division.
The only way Houston covers the spread is if Deshaun Watson manages to throw at least 3-4 TD passes to compensate for his porous defense. Even though I like Watson, I don’t believe it will happen, so I’m putting my money on the Colts.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): GREEN BAY PACKERS -8 VS CAROLINA PANTHERS
New Orleans’ surprising loss to the Eagles, combined with Green Bay’s win in Detroit propelled the Packers to the NFC’s number one seed. Getting the top spot is super valuable since it is the only one providing a bye during the playoffs. For this reason, there is no way the Packers take this game lightly.
The weather forecast indicates a pretty cold day in Green Bay: around 0 degree Celsius. Aaron Rodgers is used to this kind of weather, while the Panthers don’t enjoy it nearly as much.
Carolina might get wide receiver D.J. Moore back on the field, but they are unlikely to have running back Christian McCaffrey available.
There is almost ZERO chance that the Panthers hold Green Bay’s passing game in check. Carolina has allowed at least 280 passing yards to opposing QBs in six of their last 7 games, including big production from average signal callers like Drew Lock and Kirk Cousins. How in the world are they supposed to stop Aaron Rodgers, who has been in MVP form throughout the year (ok, except against the Bucs!!).
Donte Jackson, Rasul Douglas and Troy Pride represent one of the weakest coverage trios in all of football, while safety Tre Boston has been awful.
It would be surprising if the Packers don’t score more than 30 points, so it will come down to whether Green Bay’s defense can hold the Panthers to a maximum of 20-23 points. I expect the Packers to score a boatload of points, which will force Teddy Bridgewater into passing mode and that will result into a few turnovers.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
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LEAN #1: Patriots +2.5 at Dolphins (Bill Belichick is known for eating rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, Miami’s defense is great defending the pass but New England focuses on the ground game and the Pats get three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday);
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LEAN #2: Bears +3 or +3.5 at Vikings (Chicago will be looking to avenge an earlier 19-to-13 loss to those same Vikings, Minnesota is 1-6 ATS as home favorites recently and Da Bears have beaten the spread in five of the past seven meetings with Minnesota);
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LEAN #3: Ravens -13 vs Jaguars (huge difference in motivation between these two clubs, temperature expected to be near zero degree Celsius which the Jags won’t like too much, Ravens have the top rushing offense in football while Jacksonville has allowed 120+ rushing yards to opposing RBs in three straight contests and mobile QBs like Watson and Herbert have enjoyed some success against the Jags this season).
It would be awesome if the 5-star pick could hit once again! Let’s beat our bookies, guys!!!!!
Professor MJ
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Written Thursday December 25th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Last week, we had a couple of 5-star picks, which was highly unusual!
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Bucs +3.5 vs Chiefs (won the bet, but deserved to lose in my opinion);
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Giants -5.5 at Bengals (lost the bet, but we got screwed by: a) Daniel Jones’ injury; b) a TD on a kickoff return by Cincy; c) a bogus PI penalty that allowed a garbage TD late in the fourth quarter).
Our record on 5-star picks:
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3-2 this season
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8-4 past three years
Overall, last week was a lucrative one: a 4-2 record on official picks and a perfect 2-0 on leans.
We have been on fire recently with a 10-5-2 ATS record since Week 10.
Let’s keep rolling, folks!!!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS +6 AT TENNESSEE TITANS
I’ve said it a few times this year, and I’ll say it again. In my opinion, the Titans are a good team to bet as underdogs, but they’re a good team to fade as favorites. As a matter of fact, they have beaten the spread just two times the last seven games they were established as favorites.
My main concern about this game is Cleveland’s pass defense. They were already without Greedy Williams, and now their other starting cornerback Denzel Ward seems on the wrong side of questionable for Sunday. That could open up the field for A.J. Brown.
Other than that, I like the Browns here. To me, the spread is way too high. Cleveland should be fine running the ball against Tennessee, whose defense has been average. Meanwhile, the Browns are fairly strong defending the run and they are welcoming back stud defensive end Myles Garrett this weekend.
The revenge factor comes into play as well. I’m sure Baker Mayfield and company remember last year’s season opener, a game in which Cleveland got hammered 43-to-13 at home against Tennessee. Mayfield threw three interceptions in that game, but that won’t happen this time.
For these reasons, I’m backing Cleveland as 6-point underdogs as my top play in Week 13.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +1 VS BUFFALO BILLS
San Francisco’s defense is quickly getting back to form. After undergoing a rash of injuries, they have gotten some players back, which has shown on the field. Last week, they bottled up a good Rams offense and allowed just 14 first downs.
Buffalo QB Josh Allen usually makes a mix of great and bad plays. I expect him to make a few mistakes that will cost his team this Monday. He is also still missing wide receiver John Brown; the offense is good, but not as great when Brown is out of the lineup.
I have spoken a few times this year about how researchers have shown that peak athletic performance occurs during the late afternoon or early evening. For this reason, a West Coast team gets an advantage when playing a night game against a team from the East Coast.
Each team’s record on Monday Night Football is at opposite ends: Buffalo is 0-3-1 ATS versus 13-3 for the Niners. San Francisco also holds an impressive 7-3 ATS record at home when facing a team with a winning record.
The key to this game will be San Francisco’s running game who should be able to exploit a weak Buffalo run defense, who ranks 27th in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. With Raheem Mostert back from an injury, I believe he will run wild and cause headaches to the Bills.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LOS ANGELES RAMS -2.5 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Kyler Murray’s throwing shoulder is hurt. He didn’t look as sharp as usual last week in New England. Coincidence or not, he ran for a season-low five times both of the past two weeks. I suspect he doesn’t want to take more hits to lower the risk of aggravating his injury.
After a hot start, the Cards are definitely stumbling. They have won just one of their last four matchups, and the lone win should have been a loss, if not for a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last play of the game against the Bills.
Jared Goff tends to struggle when he feels pressure, otherwise he is super efficient. I expect him to have a clean pocket this Sunday, given Arizona’s pass rush who is not that great.
I also like the three-headed monster at the running back position for the Rams: Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and rookie Cam Akers.
Los Angeles has rebounded with a win after each of their three losses in 2020. Also note that the Rams have beaten the spread the last five times they made a trip to Arizona.
Another reason for taking the Rams in this contest is the mismatch on defense. Los Angeles’ defense has been great, both against the run and the pass. As for Arizona, they have a middle of the pack defense.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 AT HOUSTON TEXANS
The Colts are not intimidated from playing in Houston at all: they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight meetings there.
Indy is also a team that can rebound nicely after poor performances. Indeed, they have posted an incredible 6-0-1 ATS record after double-digit home losses. Last week, they got beaten up 45-26 against the Titans.
I am aware that the Texans will benefit from three additional days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving, but the team suffered a HUGE blow when their top wide receiver (Will Fuller V) and their top cornerback (Bradley Roby) got hit with six-game suspensions for violating the league’s PEDs policy. With Randall Cobb already out and Kenny Stills being waived about a week ago, that will put the wide receiver depth to the test.
I expect Indy’s defense to respond strongly after such a poor outing last week. With Deshaun Watson having less weapons at his disposal, he’ll need to do a Superman impersonation in order to keep his team afloat. I don’t think it will happen.
Houston’s defense has been awful both against the run and the pass, while the Colts should get running back Jonathan Taylor back. I am worried about the Colts possibly being without their star left tackle Anthony Castonzo, but I’m still putting my money on Indy to do everything they can to keep up with the Titans for the AFC South title.
PICK #5 (2 STARS): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10 VS NEW YORK GIANTS
Last Monday, I posted an alert in my Facebook group and to people on my mailing list about a great bargain. The Seahawks were tagged as 7.5-point favorites at Bet365 at the time, while some bookies had a line of 10 points. I put a fairly big bet, then I let everyone know about this nice deal, and the line moved to 9, and then 10 points within an hour. No matter if the bet wins or loses, this was clearly a good value wager.
Now that the dust has settled, I still think Seattle -10 points is an enticing play. According to the latest reports, Daniel Jones seems unlikely to play. His backup, Colt McCoy, is simply horrible. He’s been bad throughout his 11-year career, and that’s not about to change. He couldn’t get the offense going last week against a weak Cincinnati defense.
I love how Seattle matches up well with the Giants. With McCoy under center, New York will need their running game to get going, but that should prove very difficult considering the Seahawks defense is 3rd in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. That will force McCoy into long third downs, and the result will be catastrophic.
On the other side of the ball, New York’s strength on defense is its run defense. Unfortunately for them, Seattle has a guy named Russell Wilson at quarterback who is ready to shred their pass defense.
Seattle wins by at least two touchdowns and beats the spread.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
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LEAN #1: Chargers +1 vs Patriots (This is a passing league, and there is a huge gap between New England’s and Los Angeles’ passing offenses. Cam Newton is banged up and his team will be travelling through three time zones to play this game.);
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LEAN #2: Broncos +14 at Chiefs (The weakness of K.C.’s defense is its run defense, so I think Denver can find a way to run efficiently and run out the clock a little bit. On the other side of the ball, Denver’s pass defense is among the top 10 and could limit the damage against Mahomes and company. The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Chiefs, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less! Drew Lock will be back under center.);
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LEAN #3: Dolphins -11 vs Bengals (I hope Ryan Fitzpatrick remains the starter because he is better than Tua right now. Good luck to QB Brandon Allen against a stifling Dolphins pass defense! Miami could welcome back running backs Myles Gaskin and/or Salvon Ahmed);
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LEAN #4: Washington +8.5 at Steelers (Pittsburgh is not nearly as good as its record indicate. Man, they played badly against the Ravens last Wednesday! Washington is fighting hard every week and they are playing sound football for head coach Ron Rivera. It won’t be an easy task for the Steelers to beat them by 9 points or more).
A big thank you for reading this column every week, I hope to help you beat your bookie!
Professor MJ
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Written Wednesday November 25th, 2020 at 4 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
AMAZING!
We have two picks with the highest 5-star rating this week!
That’s incredible, especially when you consider that we’ve had only three plays rated five stars in the entire 2020 season thus far.
Remember that such confidence picks hold a 2-1 record this year. Since I started this Professor MJ brand three years ago, we are 7-3 under such circumstances.
After giving away ALL of my NFL picks this year, these two gems are available at a $100 fee.
I’m so confident in those bets that I’m willing to make you this great offer:
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If both picks lose, you get your money back;
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If one pick loses and the other wins, you’re going to get my next 5-star pick for free, which should occur sometime later this season;
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If both picks win, everyone’s happy and richer!
I don’t recommend that you wait any longer before getting those 2 awesome picks because the lines are likely to move against you. I already placed my bets because I suspect the lines will only get worse as money pours in.
Simply follow this link. You don’t want to miss out on this unique opportunity to have two 5-star picks during the same week!
PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +7 VS MIAMI DOLPHINS
Despite an 0-10 record, the Jets have been significantly tougher to beat of late. They fought hard and lost by 8 points or less in three of their past four contests: 18-10 vs Buffalo, 30-27 vs New England and 34-28 at the Chargers.
Meanwhile, the Fins stumbled big time last week in Denver. They had been flying high during a five-game winning streak, but fell flat last week. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa even got benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick in order to try to spark a comeback, but to no avail.
Head coach Brian Flores has already named Tua his Week 12 starter. Facing the weak Jets secondary is a good spot to rebound, but unlike what happened in Week 6 I do not believe New York will get shutout against Miami. You guessed it, the in-season revenge factor is coming into play here!
Joe Flacco has done better than expected, especially since he got all three starting WRs on the field: Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims.
The last seven times the Jets have been established as home underdogs by oddsmakers, the Jets have beaten the spread five times.
Notice that the Dolphins have owned the Jets in recent meetings, though. Indeed, they are posting a 5-0-1 ATS record in the past six games between these two clubs.
Quick note: Miami has had to travel quite a bit in recent weeks. They played in Arizona, came back home for their bye week, and traveled all the way to Denver last week.
I’m taking the Jets as 7-point underdogs. They fought hard against the Chargers last week, and there is no reason to believe they won’t battle hard again when facing a division rival. I might even put a small bet on over 44.5 points to be scored in that game (quick bonus for you!).
PICK #4 (1 STAR): UNDER 44 POINTS NEW ORLEANS-DENVER
I tip my hat off to Taysom Hill for playing a solid game against the Falcons last week. Unfortunately, Denver’s defense is a notch better than Atlanta’s. That’s particularly true of the pass defense: the Broncos rank 10th in terms of passer rating allowed. That should force the Saints to keep the ball on the ground more often, which runs the clock more quickly (good for unders).
On the other side of the ball, it’s no secret that Denver’s offense is having trouble putting up points on the board. They are 27th in the NFL in point scored per game. As for New Orleans’ defense, they have allowed the eigth-fewest points per game. This unit has been even stronger recently, having allowed an average of 8 points to the Bucs, the 49ers and the Falcons. In other words, an offensive outburst by the Broncos this Sunday is highly unlikely!
Here is an astounding stat: the under is 17-4 the last 21 times the Broncos were at home facing a team with a winning record!
PICK #5 (1 STAR): TENNESSEE TITANS +3.5 AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Stud defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was placed on the COVID-19 list Wednesday afternoon. He is in danger of missing the game, which would be a HUGE upgrade for Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s dangerous running game.
The Titans were beaten 34-17 by the Colts a couple of weeks ago after leading 17-to-13 at halftime. A blocked punt late in the third quarter was the turning point in this game. I do expect Tennessee to get revenge this week.
Philip Rivers got nicked up against the Packers and finished the game on a gimpy leg. Your body does not recover as quickly when you get near 40 years old and he may be bothered by this injury this Sunday.
Even though the Titans hold a 2-7 ATS record in their last nine trips in Indy, I expect them to keep the game tight or even upset the Colts. The line shouldn’t be as high, in my opinion.
Ryan Tannehill is just more reliable than Rivers, who tends to turn the ball over at bad times. And Derrick Henry is obviously a beast on Tennessee’s side.
For these reasons, I’m going with the Titans +3.5 in Indy.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
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LEAN #1: Packers -8.5 vs Bears (You don’t want to bet against an angry Aaron Rodgers. That’s probably how he feels after a heart-breaking loss in Indy last week. He won’t take a division rival lightly. Packers are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times they lost a game straight up. Talk about rebounding nicely! I’m taking Green Bay despite Chicago being off their bye week. Nick Foles is hurt and bad);
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LEAN #2: 49ers +7 at Rams (San Francisco is getting 7 additional days of rest after their bye week, while the Rams lose one after playing the Monday nighter. 49ers likely to get a few key players back, including RB Raheem Mostert, WR Brandon Aiyuk, LT Trent Williams and DE Arik Armstead. Huge boost for them. Can Nick Mullens play better?).
I hope you enjoyed this write up! Enjoy your weekend!
Professor MJ
If you wish to obtain the two high-confidence 5-star picks discussed in the video, please follow this link:
https://www.professormj.com/products/two-5-star-nfl-picks-for-week-12-2020-season
The betting tips are presented by Professor MJ, who teaches statistics at a Canadian university. Join other savvy sports bettors who are CRUSHING their bookies:
Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ
Link to exclusive mailing list (see bottom of the following page): https://www.professormj.com/pages/nfl-picks-week-12-2020-regular-season
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Written Tuesday November 17th, 2020 at 1 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
We got back on the winning track with a 2-1-2 record with our picks against the spread (ATS) last week.
If not for a miraculous Hail Mary pass in the final seconds by the Cards, and Nick Chubb giving himself up at Houston’s one-yard line instead of scoring the touchdown, we would have enjoyed a nice 4-1 ATS record.
The top pick, the Steelers -3.5 in the first half, was an easy winner.
Let’s follow up with another strong week, shall we?
In Week 11, I’ve got more plays than usual: 6 official picks and 3 leans. Enjoy!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): TENNESSEE TITANS +6.5 AT BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Titans are the typical team that I feel like you should bet when they are established as underdogs, but that you want to fade when they are favorites. They can beat the best teams in the NFL, but they are also subject to lose to weaker ones.
As a matter of fact, over their last seven road games facing a team with a winning record, Tennessee holds a nice 6-1 ATS record.
Meanwhile, Baltimore has a scary 1-7 ATS record following a straight up loss and shows a 5-13 ATS record over their most recent 18 games as home favorites.
The one thing that worries me, though, is the revenge factor. The Ravens were ousted by the Titans in last year’s playoffs, so Baltimore will be looking for payback.
Still, I’m backing Tennessee here. They are benefiting from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. They have also been at home on six of the past seven weeks, which means they did not have to travel very often.
PICK #2 (4 STARS): ATLANTA FALCONS +5 AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
I’m pretty sure this line will drop until kickoff. The closing spread might end up being 3.5 or 4.
Three much publicized epic fourth quarter collapses by the Falcons have them sitting on a 3-6 record, which could easily be 6-3 instead.
I like how they have performed recently by winning three of their past four matchups. We would be talking about a four-game winning streak if not for the late Detroit Lions comeback a few weeks ago.
Atlanta is also coming off its bye week and they are likely to get wide receiver Calvin Ridley back on the field. New Orleans’ run defense is solid, but Atlanta’s strength is through the air anyway. I believe Matt Ryan and company can move the ball against this defense.
Meanwhile, the Saints will be without Drew Brees at quarterback. Jameis Winston is expected to take over, unless head coach Sean Payton decides to go with Taysom Hill, which would surprise me. I thought the Winston signing was a smart move during the offseason, but he looked shaky when he replaced Brees last week. He might need some time to get up to playing speed and I doubt the offense will be firing on all cylinders right away.
The Falcons have beaten the spread on only one occasion in the past five meeting with New Orleans, but they are 7-1 ATS as road underdogs recently. Also note that the Saints are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites.
Picks #3 to #6, as well as the 3 leans, can be found in my weekly YouTube video which can be found here.
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Written Tuesday November 10th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
A dreadful 0-3 performance for the picks last week. Ouch!
That does not shake my confidence at all. Bad weeks will invariably occur every season; they are part of the sports betting game.
Never go too high during winning streaks and never go too low in bad times.
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track! Here are 4 picks for you.
PICK #1 (4 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3.5 FIRST HALF VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
The news that Ben Roethlisberger was placed on the COVID-19 list broke not very long before I posted this article. The line might change depending on Big Ben’s status, but no matter what I’ll take Pittsburgh in the first half. If he misses the game, the spread will be smaller, obviously.
Some factors that I regularly look at are favoring the Bengals. First, the rest factor. Cincy is coming off its bye week, but statistical studies have shown that the best NFL teams use this extra time much more efficiently than weaker ones. Since the Bengals are not among the top tier, the bye week effect won’t be as large.
Secondly, there’s the revenge factor. The Bengals lost both meetings to Pittsburgh last year.
Also, big road underdogs who have been established underdogs for 4+ straight games have done well against the spread in the past.
So why the heck am I taking the Steelers? And why for the first half only?
Pittsburgh had a letdown game in Dallas last week. They took the Cowboys lightly and needed a late comeback to secure the win.
Now facing a division rival, head coach Mike Tomlin will make sure his big boys will be storming out of the gate. I expect a fast start from his squad.
I prefer taking Pittsburgh in the first half because Joe Burrow is capable of scoring 1-2 touchdown(s) late in the fourth quarter to cover the spread after trailing by a good margin.
In the last 9 matchups where the Steelers were at home facing a team with a losing record, they beat the spread on 7 occasions.
No need to remind me that Cincy lost four games by a 5-point margin or less, nor that Pittsburgh won four games by that same margin. I am aware that both teams have been involved in many tight games. That’s precisely why many people will jump on the Bengals train.
However, on paper we have a huge mismatch favoring the home team on both sides of the ball, and yet that home team was only a touchdown favorite before the line went off the board after the Roethlisberger news (which means it will be even lower if he’s out).
Defensively, Cincy ranks dead last in yards-per-carry average allowed, while Pittsburgh is 9th in that category. As for opposing team’s passer rating, the Bengals rank 13th versus 2nd for the Steelers.
On offense, I like what Joe Burrow has done but he’s still a rookie about to face a tough defense. Remember what happened when he faced the Ravens’ defense in a 27-to-3 loss.
To make matters worse, 4 out of the 5 Bengals starting offensive linemen are listed as questionable. You don’t want your offensive line being banged up when facing Pittsburgh’s stout defense.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): BUFFALO BILLS +2 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Is the Bills defense back to its 2018 and 2019 form where they were a top five unit?
Not yet, but they took nice steps last week. That might sound weird after allowing 34 points, but that was against the potent Seahawks offense. Buffalo’s defense was able to pressure Russell Wilson and he ended the game with his worst QB rating of the 2020 season.
On Arizona’s side, their defense was supposed to be pretty weak this year, but they have done a fine job thus far. I’m afraid they might regress, and having two starting cornerbacks, Byron Murphy and Dre Kirkpatrick, listed as questionable is worrisome when you are about to face the great WR trio of Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley.
You may want to keep an eye on the injury status of stud cornerback Tre’Davious White, though. He left the game against Seattle with an ankle injury and did not return. Head coach Sean McDermott called it a day-to-day injury, so I feel like he’s more likely to suit up than not.
Over their last 8 meetings as road underdogs, the Bills hold a nice 5-1-2 ATS record.
Meanwhile, Arizona has beaten the spread just once in the past six games where they were home favorites.
The Cards are at home for the fourth straight week, which boosts their chances of getting the victory. But could they be looking ahead to a critical meeting with the Seahawks next week?
In summary, I like Buffalo to pick up their eighth win of the season as small underdogs.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LOS ANGELES RAMS -1.5 VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
After a very hot start to the 2020 season where many experts were calling him the league’s MVP (deservedly so), Russell Wilson has been struggling a bit.
Wilson’s three worst games, in terms of QB rating, occurred in the last four games. During this time frame, he posted a 12-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio, which is far worse than the 16-to-2 ratio he racked up in the first four matches.
The Cards and the Bills have shown how to disrupt Wilson. You must blitz and put pressure on him. Aaron Donald and company have sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times, fifth-highest in the NFL.
Jared Goff is extremely good when given time to scan the field, especially with such great weapons as Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. However, when Goff is feeling pressure, he is really awful and he doesn’t seem to know how to escape.
Which of these two scenarios is the most likely this Sunday? Considering Seattle’s ineptitude to rush opposing QBs this year, Goff has a good chance to have a clean pocket most of the time. L.A.’s offensive line has been nothing short of outstanding in 2020, allowing the second-fewest sacks this year despite having a QB who is not mobile at all.
Also note that the Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Los Angeles.
The Rams will be well-prepared coming off their bye week. They are also very likely to welcome back on the field their top cornerback, Jalen Ramsey, and their top running back, Darrell Henderson.
Los Angeles holds a good 5-1-1 ATS record coming off a straight up loss (they were beaten by the Dolphins before their bye week). And they post an identical ATS record in their past seven games as home favorites.
As if Seattle’s defense needed more bad news, their top two cornerbacks are listed as questionable: Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. They might also be without linebacker K.J. Wright, who sprained his ankle in Buffalo last week. Finally, Seattle’s top two running backs, Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, are still uncertain to suit up.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 VS HOUSTON TEXANS
Favorites off their bye week have posted a 36-20-4 ATS record over a four-year span. That’s one of the reasons I’m backing the Browns this weekend. They will also be at home for the third straight week.
Houston’s defense is just dreadful. They are 31st in yards-per-carry average and 32nd in opposing QBs’ passer rating. It doesn’t get any worse than this.
Sure, the Texans passing offense is capable of putting up points on the board. Their offensive line is suspect, though. Myles Garrett is licking his chops right now and he could have a huge day. As for the Browns, they quietly have one of the best offensive lines in football.
Odell Beckham is done for the season, but Nick Chubb could return to the lineup this Sunday, as well as right guard Wyatt Teller.
The Texans had five guys departing the previous game due to injuries, including linebacker Brennan Scarlett who broke his arm and running back David Johnson who suffered a concussion.
Houston is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Cleveland, but they are 8-20 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record. They have also struggled on games played on grass, as shown by their 0-5-1 ATS record recently.
PICK #5 (1 STAR): CHICAGO BEARS +3 (@ -115 odds, Pinnacle) VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS
You can either take Chicago +3 at lower odds or +2.5 at higher odds. I recommend taking the former.
The Vikings have been struggling against Da Bears recently; they are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings between these two squads. Over their last 17 trips to the windy city, they beat the spread just three times and lost on 14 occasions.
The difference in Monday night performances between the two teams is staggering. On one hand, Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in such primetime games, while Chicago holds a 4-1 ATS record.
Moreover, the Bears have posted a 13-4-1 ATS record the last 18 times they were home dogs. That’s remarkable!
Let me tell you about a betting strategy that favors Chicago in this matchup:
Bet against a team that intercepted 3+ passes in its previous game, unless that team has a great passing offense and defense.
Last week, Minnesota picked off the Lions’ quarterbacks three times.
That being said, when a team intercepts many passes during a game, I believe there are two possibilities:
1. This team has a great passing attack, forcing its opponent to take chances, which creates more takeaways.
2. This team picked off many passes due to “good luck” more than defensive skill.
Do the Vikings fit in the mold of scenario #1? I don’t think so! Both of their offensive and defensive passing games are not great. Racking up three interceptions was much more likely an outlier than anything else.
From 2013 to Week #7 of the 2020 season, teams that intercepted 3+ passes in their previous contest and were now either underdogs or “small” favorites (i.e. 5 points or less) are 62-81-2 ATS, a 43% win percentage.
I’m going with the Bears to upset the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
Want two quick leans for this weekend?
a) Jaguars +14 at Packers (seems like a trap game for Green Bay, much like the Steelers in Dallas last week, especially after facing two big rivals in Minnesota and San Francisco);
b) Eagles -3 at Giants (Philly is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 visits in New York, while the G-Men are just 2-12 ATS as home underdogs. However, it could be payback time after a heart-breaking 22-21 loss by New York versus the Eagles in Week 7. The Eagles are coming off their bye week).
Let’s crush it this week, fellows!!!
- Sportwetten, gg-77 and bookiebasher
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Written Wednesday November 4th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
ALERT, ALERT, BIG RED ALERT!!!
We have a 5-star pick for just the third time this season!
Here is the record of those high-confidence predictions over the past three seasons (I started rating my picks in 2018 – too bad I didn’t do it in 2017 since we had great lucrative year!):
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2020 SEASON: 2-0 RECORD
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Week #1: Cards +7 at 49ers (win)
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Week #7: Jets +13 vs Bills (win)
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2019 SEASON: 2-2 RECORD
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Week #5: 49ers -3.5 vs Browns (win)
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Week #7: Bears -3 vs Saints (loss)
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Week #14: Raiders +3 vs Titans (loss)
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Week #17: Cowboys -12 vs Redskins (win)
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2018 SEASON: 3-0 RECORD
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Week #12: Ravens -10.5 vs Raiders (win)
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Week #12: Bills +3.5 vs Jaguars (win)
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Week #14: Saints -8 at Bucs (win)
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OVERALL: 7-2 RECORD (77.8% WIN RATE)
Again, I feel obligated to remind you an important piece of advice: do not bet your house on a single bet. As a matter of fact, you shouldn’t bet more than 5% of your bankroll on one selection.
Before we get going, here is a quick review of the performance of this year’s NFL picks:
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5 STARS: 2-0 record
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4 STARS: 4-2-1 record
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3 STARS: 6-7 record
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2 STARS: 1-4 record
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1 STAR: 4-2 record
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OVERALL: 17-15-1 record (a 53.1% win rate)
While the overall winning percentage is decent, notice this interesting trend:
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PICKS RATED 4-5 STARS: 6-2-1 record
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PICKS RATED 1-2-3 STARS: 11-13 record
In other words, the best plays have been hitting at a higher rate.
All right, let’s get started!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): DENVER BRONCOS +4 AT ATLANTA FALCONS
Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. The Falcons will be benefiting from three extra days of rest since they played last week’s Thursday night game. Still, I absolutely love the Broncos in this matchup.
I even sent an alert to my mailing list subscribers and my Facebook/Twitter followers as early as Monday to let them know I was taking Denver. At the time, I bet the Broncos +4 points at -105 odds. I was convinced the line would only deteriorate as the week would progress and so far I’ve been right. At the time of writing (Wednesday morning), Pinnacle now has Denver +4 at -113 odds, while many bookies have dropped their line to 3.5. I believe it might even go as low as 3 points.
Despite some key injuries on defense, Denver remains very solid on that side of the ball. They have lost Jurrell Casey, Mike Purcell and Von Miller. Still, their 11 starters have an average 2020 ProFootballFocus grades of 68.3, while the league average is 61.6. They have a much better defense than Atlanta’s.
On offense, you might want to give the edge to the Falcons, though. However, Calvin Ridley is on the wrong side of questionable due to a foot injury he suffered last week. He is a big part of their offense.
The big question is how Drew Lock will perform this Sunday. He had a good first outing against the Titans. He got hurt in Week #2 and had two straight disappointing games upon his return. Indeed, he did not throw a single TD pass versus four picks in those two matchups.
Last week, trailing 24-to-3 early in the third quarter, it looked like Lock would finish with another poor performance, but he threw 3 TD passes in the second half to seal a stunning 31-30 comeback win over the Chargers. This game will certainly boost his confidence, and facing a suspect Falcons secondary should also help.
A few interesting trends:
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The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games as road underdogs;
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The Falcons are 0-4 ATS over their past four matches as home favorites.
Final note: it would help the Broncos if the coaching staff realized that Phillip Lindsay is a superior running back than Melvin Gordon. Give him more touches for crying out loud!
Lindsay has rushed for over 1,000 yards both in 2018 and 2019, while averaging between 4.5 and 6.4 yards per carry in each of his three years in the NFL. Meanwhile, Gordon averages 4.2 yards per rush and he doesn’t look as explosive.
I know that Gordon was given a fat contract, but you need to put your best players on the field if you want to win!
PICK #2 (3 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM -3 VS NEW YORK GIANTS
First of all, I tend to back favorites coming off their bye week, as they held a 98-60-5 ATS record during a four-year span.
Washington will be much more rested than New York. Not only are they coming off their bye, but the Giants fought hard against the Bucs last Monday night, which means they are getting one less day than usual to game plan and to rest for this upcoming divisional matchup.
Notice that Washington will be at home for a third consecutive week, and also a fifth time in six weeks! Their lone road game during this time period was in New York, which wasn’t a long trip.
Speaking of making a trip to New York, do I need to remind you that I love betting teams that have lost the first meeting between two division rivals? Back in Week 6, the Giants won a close call by a 20-to-19 score against Washington.
At times, Daniel Jones looks like a franchise quarterback. He makes good throws and you start thinking he is the future of this organization. And then he makes dumb mistakes that leaves you scratching your head. He just doesn’t seem to learn from his mistakes! He is a turnover machine.
I like what Kyle Allen has done this year. He has thrown four TD passes versus just one interception. Granted, he faced the Giants and the Cowboys, which are not among the league’s best defenses, but he still did his job. He has also completed close to 69% of his passes, which is impressive. He seems to have a good connection with Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas.
The Giants have beaten the spread on five of their last seven matchups in Washington, though. Still, I’m going with Washington. According to PFF grades, Washington has a slightly better defense, and a much better offensive line.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5 AT BUFFALO BILLS
It is very rare that I bet against the same team three weeks in a row, but that happens to be the case here. I am fading the Bills once again, the team that made me win my biggest wager ever last season (over 6.5 regular season wins).
I have nothing against Buffalo; I just go where the value is. In this case, I think getting Seattle to lay just 2.5 points is good value.
The Bills defense has been a huge disappointment this season, and they have not done much better than Seattle’s unit. Buffalo has allowed less points per game, but the average PFF grades of the 11 Seattle defensive starters stands at 63.7 versus 58.4 for Buffalo. Based on those figures, it’s hard to claim that the Bills defense is clearly superior to Seattle’s.
On offense, no one is doubting the fact that the Seahawks are more powerful. They have the better quarterback for sure. At wide receiver, Buffalo has a good trio with Diggs-Brown-Beasley, but in my opinion Lockett and Metcalf are more dominant. Also, Seattle’s running game has been more convincing, although Buffalo’s ground game finally got going against the Patriots last week. Finally, the offensive lines are fairly comparable; I might even give a small edge to Seattle here.
The Seahawks are 7-1 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record. However, they have been a losing bet against the spread in their last four matchups on turf.
Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games as home underdogs.
Even though the Seahawks will be playing an early Sunday game as a West Coast team, I’m taking them as 2.5-point favorites.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
Last week, many people told me they appreciated the fact that I added unofficial picks to my weekly write-up. So back by popular demand, here are some leans:
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Colts +2.5 vs Ravens (I came close from making it an official one-star pick, but didn’t pull the trigger. Philip Rivers scares me a little bit. The Colts defense against the run ranks 2nd in the NFL in terms of yards-per-carry average, which matches up well against Baltimore. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips in Indy, and hold an overall 1-10 ATS record over the past 11 meetings with the Colts. Many players from Baltimore won’t practice this week after being in close contact with Marlon Humphrey, who was diagnosed with covid-19);
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Lions +4 at Vikings (I love betting weaker teams in a divisional road game coming off a big straight up loss. In this case, Detroit lost by 20 points last week. They are looking for revenge after losing both meetings versus Minnesota last year. Kenny Golladay is out, which hurts Detroit’s offense. The Vikings defense did surprisingly well last week against the Packers, despite fielding seven rookies. They might go back to normal and allow tons of yards/points this week);
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Saints +5.5 at Bucs (Tampa loses one day of preparation due to playing the Monday nighter, but will be looking to avenge a Week 1 loss to those same Saints. New Orleans beat the spread in the last four meetings with Tampa and you cannot ignore the fact that they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs and 6-2 ATS on grass. The Saints could get both Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas this week);
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Cards -4.5 vs Dolphins (We did not learn much about Tua last week since Miami’s defense and special teams won the game for them. Their defense has allowed just 11 points per game over the past three games, but I believe they are not that good and will revert to the mean. The Cards are another favorite coming off their bye week and have not had to travel in any of the last three weeks);
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Under 50 points Broncos-Falcons (this total seems high considering I expect both offenses to have trouble moving the ball on offense);
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Over 41.5 points Patriots-Jets (if we pretend like all Patriots and Jets games had a total of 41.5, the over would have gone 8-7. However, if you remove games where Cam Newton and Sam Darnold were out due to injuries, this record shoots up to 8-4. Some might argue the under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these two clubs, but I’m still backing the over).
Best of luck my friend!
Professor MJ
Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidBeaudoin79
Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ
- Chev Chelios and Sportwetten
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Written Thursday October 29th, 2020 at 7 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
The 5-star pick was a winner last week, lifting our record on such plays to a perfect 2-0 record this season!
Backing the Jets was a bold call, especially considering they were 0-6 against the spread (ATS) this year, but we took them at the right moment.
Notice how New York was a 13-point underdog when I took them last Thursday, while the line dropped all the way to 9.5 prior to kickoff. That was a huge indication it was a good value bet.
I’ve got four official picks for you this week, as well as five “leans”. Let’s get going!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): ATLANTA FALCONS +2 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Panthers were supposed to be one of the worst NFL teams this season, but surprised many by winning three of their first five games. They have now lost a couple of games in a row, and I would not be surprised if they go on a downward spiral.
It is still uncertain if Christian McCaffrey will return to the lineup, but even if he does it looks like his ankle is still not 100%.
Left tackle Russell Okung is a long shot to be available, which would be a big blow to this offensive line. I also believe losing Kawann Short for the rest of the year will have a big negative impact on Carolina’s defensive line. He was a key part of this defense.
Matt Ryan is the type of quarterback who struggles a lot when pressured, but thrives when given time to scan the field. Carolina ranks dead last in sacks with only six. I expect Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst to shine on Thursday Night Football.
I also like to pick teams who have lost to the same opponent earlier in the season. That’s the case of the Falcons who lost 23-16 against Carolina three weeks ago. It’s time for some payback!
Atlanta suffered another mind-boggling loss last week and I really expect them to lash out on their division rivals this Thursday. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the game by 10 points or more.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +4 AT BUFFALO BILLS
After a hot start to the 2020 season, the Bills have cooled off in a big way. They were hammered 42-16 in Tennessee before getting stomped by the Chiefs despite a fairly close 26-17 score. Last week’s win over the Jets wasn’t convincing either.
What I like the most about this prediction is how well the Patriots match up against Buffalo. Let me explain.
First, let’s think about the case where New England has the ball. Their passing attack has been very inconsistent and they lack playmakers catching the ball. In order to have success, they must run the ball effectively, which happens to be Buffalo’s Achilles’ heel on defense (they rank 23rd in terms of yards-per-rush average).
Now, how about when the Bills are on offense? Buffalo has the sixth-most passing yards per game this year versus 29th in rushing yards per game. Guess what is New England’s strength on defense? That’s right, their pass defense with Stephon Gilmore and the two McCourtys leading the way.
Some might also argue that the Pats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Buffalo, but I’m not sure this stat is relevant with Tom Brady gone.
Without hesitation, I’m going with New England to keep this game close.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -4 AT CHICAGO BEARS
In today’s NFL, it is hard to win if you cannot throw the ball effectively, unless you are exceptionally good at running the ball like the Baltimore Ravens. Clearly, the Bears have a bad passing attack with Nick Foles posting 6 TD passes and 6 interceptions in five games. And their running game is just as bad: the team ranks last in rushing yards per game.
Somehow, Chicago rode their defense to go 5-2 thus far in 2020. However, everyone knows they are not that good. Even their defense started to show some signs of weaknesses last week against the Rams, who picked up 24 first downs and 371 total yards.
Relying on a stifling defense was a good recipe 20-30 years ago. It does not work as well in the modern NFL. Even then, the Bears defense is good, but it’s not a dominant force either. I do believe Sean Payton’s team will be able to move the ball offensively.
Here are some interesting trends:
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Are you worried about how the Saints will perform on grass this weekend? They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass.
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New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups as road favorites, and 36-17 ATS in their past 53 road games overall.
Also notice that the Bears are playing on a shorter week due to playing the Monday nighter, a game in which they traveled all the way to Los Angeles.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): NEW YORK JETS +19.5 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
No need to discuss the mismatch on paper. We all know how much better the Chiefs are compared to the lowly Jets.
I’m going with the Jets for a couple of reasons:
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Since the AFL-NFL merger, 13 teams have been favored by 20 points or more. Those teams have gone 13-0 straight up, but just 3-10 ATS. Technically, New York is not a 20-point underdog, but the line opened at 21.5.
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I’ll mention the same stat as last week for those of you who didn’t see my Jets pick against the Bills. Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS (which is the case of the Jets in 2020). How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
Personally, I’m holding off before placing a bet on New York. I am waiting to obtain the injury status of wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman. If both are out, I need a point spread of at least 21 to bet the Jets. Hopefully, at least one of them suits up this Sunday, otherwise Sam Darnold may not have any reliable targets. Granted, I thought rookie Denzel Mims showed promise in his NFL debut against Buffalo last week.
The Jets also have four offensive linemen who are listed as questionable.
In other words, depending on who plays and how the point spread changes, I’ll make a decision once I have more information.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans:
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Bengals +6 vs Titans (Cincy’s five losses were by 3, 3, 4, 5 and 24-point margins, so they kept all games close except against the Ravens);
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49ers +3 at Seahawks (tight divisional matchup and Seattle’s defense is horrendous);
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Steelers +4 at Ravens (don’t like the fact that Baltimore is coming off its bye week though);
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Dolphins +4 vs Rams (too much uncertainty due to Tua’s first start to bet, but the “rest” factor favors Miami in a big way. They are coming off their bye week and have been at home three straight weeks, while the Rams played last Monday night and are now traveling across the country);
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Over 48.5 points Jets vs Chiefs.
I hope you enjoyed this post, go get your bookie man!!!
Professor MJ
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
FB: ProfessorMJ
www.professormj.com
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Written Thursday October 22nd, 2020 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
This week we’ve got just our second 5-star play of the 2020 season!
The only other one was Arizona +7 against the 49ers in Week #1, a bet that easily covered since the Cards won the game straight up by a margin of four points.
Such picks rated 5 stars have done very well since I started this “Professor MJ” brand a few years ago.
That being said, I’m not suggesting to bet your house on it. You’ll never hear me talk about “the lock of the century” or “100% guaranteed winner” or any similar bull$$hit. There is always risk involved. Bet at your own risk and never bet an amount that you cannot afford to lose.
PICK #1 (5 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +13 VS BUFFALO BILLS
Wow, picking the lowly Jets as a five-star play is pretty bold, isn’t it?
Adam Gase’s team is 0-6 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this year.
Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS. How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
I like the Jets for many other reasons.
The rest factor is in favor of New York since the Bills are coming off a Monday night game. Also, NFL teams tend to do very well in the rematch against a division rival after losing the first meeting of the season. In this case, Buffalo won 27-17 in Week #1, which makes the Jets a good play based on this betting angle.
Finally, the Bills have been struggling a lot recently. They blew a 25-point lead against the Rams before escaping with the win, thanks to a questionable pass interference penalty on fourth down in the final drive. They got hammered 42-16 against a depleted Titans team two weeks ago.
Last week, losing 26-17 against the Chiefs may not look bad on paper, but if you watched the game you know what I’m talking about. The Bills were out of sync on offense, where Josh Allen looked more like the 2018 or 2019 version of himself. And their defense was gashed on the ground by allowing 5.3 yards per carry. This unit was supposed to be among the league’s best, but they an average of 28 points per game.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has a shot to be back under center. He is a big improvement over Joe Flacco, and he would finally have some weapons around him with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and maybe rookie Denzel Mims who could make his NFL debut.
Some bookies have already lowered their spread to 12, but at the time I’m making this video BetOnline still has 13. This is where I placed my bet. I really like New York to cover in this one.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -9.5 AT DENVER BRONCOS
Over the last nine meetings between these two clubs, Kansas City holds an 8-1 record ATS. If you focus on games played in Denver only, the Chiefs have beaten the spread on six consecutive occasions.
Sure, Kansas City loses one day of rest after playing the Monday nighter. But in my opinion, elite teams fare well when facing adversity. They are a well-coached team and it won’t affect them that much.
The Broncos are coming off a nice upset win in New England. Quarterback Drew Lock made two incredibly bad decisions that almost gave the game away, but he should be thankful that his defense saved the day.
Denver’s offense struggled most of the day and couldn’t score more than 18 points despite the Pats turning the ball over three times. They won’t be able to keep up with KC’s offense, who are unlikely to take them lightly, considering it’s a divisional game.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +4 VS TAMPA BAY BUCS
I feel like the public is getting overexcited following Tampa’s convincing win over the Packers. It was indeed an impressive outing where emotions were high, which makes this non-conference matchup a trap game for them.
Las Vegas is also coming off their bye week, which is always a nice advantage.
Tampa’s top three receivers (Evans-Godwin-Miller) are all likely to play, but are nursing injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea for the rest of the year was a big blow and is an underrated loss for this squad. They also have three good guys on defense who are listed as questionable: LB Lavonte David and DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston.
The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs, the Saints and the Panthers, while losing to Buffalo and New England. In other words, there wasn’t a single easy opponent (Carolina was expected to be weak, but they are off to a nice start).
I’m taking the Raiders as home underdogs here.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Seattle is coming off their bye week, while the Cards lose one day of preparation after playing the Monday night game. Arizona also had to travel on three straight weeks prior to this week, which isn’t easy.
I’m pretty sure the Seahawks remember the last time they faced Kliff Kingsbury’s squad: a 27-13 home loss in Week #16 that hurt their chances of clinching a first-round bye. Payback time!
Over the last 11 meetings between these two rivals, the road team has a 9-1-1 record ATS. Please note that the “under” was a winning bet in each of the last five matchups.
As mentioned last week, I also like to back road favorites coming off a bye week. A reminder that such teams showed a jaw-dropping 15-1-2 ATS record over four seasons (they went 1-1 last week though).
Best of luck with your plays and I’ll see you again next week!
Professor MJ
https://www.youtube.com/c/ProfessorMJ/featured
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
FB: ProfessorMJ
www.professormj.com
- bookiebasher, ivailobg and PercyP
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Written Thursday October 15th, 2020 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
The picks went a perfect 3-0 last week!
Let’s keep rolllllling!#D
PICK #1 (4 STARS): GREEN BAY PACKERS PICK’EM AT TAMPA BAY BUCS
Over a four-year period, road favorites coming off a bye week posted an impressive 17-2-2 record against the spread (ATS). That’s impressive! Granted, Tampa is coming off a Thursday night game, but the Packers still benefit from four more days of rest.
Green Bay has been playing at an extremely high level, especially their offense that has been firing on all cylinders despite playing most of the year without one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Davante Adams. He is likely to be back on the field this Sunday. Aaron Rodgers’ offense has scored between 30 and 43 points in all of their four matchups.
Take a look at Green Bay’s margins of victories this year: 9, 21, 7 and 14. In other words, the closest contest was a 7-point game.
Meanwhile, I’m not sold on the Bucs yet. They hold a good 3-2 record, but they seem to lack consistency. Their offense looks great at times, but stalls and turns the ball over too often. And did you see Tom Brady last week who thought there was another down left when in fact the game was over? That’s a rookie mistake.
The Packers were 2.5-point favorites last Tuesday before the line dropped to 0 on Thursday despite Davante Adams and nose tackle Kenny Clark being upgraded from questionable to probable. Thank you very much for the price reduction, I’ll take the Packers!
PICK #2 (3 STARS): DETROIT LIONS -3 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
You guessed it, I’m backing another road favorite coming off its bye week: the Detroit Lions. The extra time to rest and gameplan for this matchup will be more than welcome for Matt Patricia’s squad.
Before the season began, the Jags were projected to be the worst team in the league, according to win totals set by sportsbooks. They surprised many, including myself, by kicking off the 2020 season with a 27-to-20 win over the Colts before losing a close call at Tennessee.
Since then, things have been going downhill for Jacksonville. They lost by 18, 8 and 16 points in their next three games. Want to hear a stunning fact? The three teams that beat Jacksonville hold a combined 4-10 record this year. That means that if you remove the wins over the Jags, these clubs had just one win versus 10 losses against the rest of the league! And yet, Jacksonville went on to lose by an average of 14 points against those weak teams. That’s horrendous!
The Lions were a team that I thought might surprise NFL fans this season. They have not done very well thus far with a 1-3 record.
Their offense is more than respectable with Matthew Stafford at quarterback who has been super consistent from year to year. They also feature one of the most underrated wide receivers (Kenny Golladay), a great tight end prospect (T.J. Hockenson) and an acceptable trio of running backs.
Their defense had acquired many players on the free agent market, including Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins and Desmond Trufant. And they also took cornerback Jeffrey Okudah with the third overall pick in the draft. This unit has been a disappointment thus far in 2020 by allowing a minimum of 23 points in each meeting.
Considering the offseason was shortened due to the coronavirus, teams with many new faces were at a disadvantage. Maybe that’s why the Lions defense is taking more time to gel. I do believe they could improve substantially until the remainder of the year.
For these reasons, I’m taking a team that has performed below its true value so far this year, the Detroit Lions, facing a team that has shown three super bad outcomes in a row.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS +3 AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Yes, my top pick last week was Pittsburgh, but this time I’m fading them.
After getting clobbered by the Ravens in their opener, the Browns have rebounded nicely with four straight wins. Their average margin of victory has been 9.75 points.
Cleveland’s victories came against teams whose combined record is 7-12-1. While that’s not great, take a look at Pittsburgh’s opponents: the Giants, the Broncos, the Texans and the Eagles. Those teams have compiled an atrocious 3-15-1 record. What makes matters worse is that the Steelers’ largest margin of victory in those four meetings was just 10 points.
I especially like the progress shown by the Browns. They are getting more and more comfortable with their new head coach, Kevin Stefanski.
I was super impressed with the way their offense moved the ball so easily against the stout Colts defense. Prior to this match, Indy had allowed an average of just 14 points per game. The Browns managed to put 32 points on the board. Granted, 9 of them came from the defense but the offense was able to sustain drives all afternoon.
The Steelers defense was supposed to be among the top units in the league. They have performed well under expectations thus far. They allowed 29 points to the depleted Eagles offense last week, after surrendering 21 points both against the Texans and Broncos. In the latter case, Denver needed to replace Drew Lock early in the game and went with Jeff Driskel the rest of the way.
One thing worries me about this pick, though: the Steelers will be at home for the fifth consecutive week! They have not had to travel much and are therefore well-rested.
Still, I like the Browns to win the game outright, or at least keep this divisional matchup very close.
Enjoy football this weekend!
Professor MJ (www.professormj.com)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCszNw7lw10C53SurBFmwBVQ
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
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As promised last week, here is an update about BetOnline’s Mega Contest:
I did not win the $4,000 quarterly prize awarded to the top contestant through four weeks. ?
I dropped from 2nd to 24th place (out of 2671 participants) after posting a disappointing 2-3 record last week.
Still in good shape for season prizes, which are given to the top 100 contestants. Let’s keep grinding!
Let’s now move on to my favorite plays in Week #5!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The better a team is, the more they benefit from additional rest. That’s not theory, but something that was verified through statistical analyses. It also makes sense from a logical standpoint, as these teams tend to make better use of the extra time for game planning.
That being said, the Steelers are in great position here. Not only are they coming off a bye week, but they will be at home for the fourth straight week! Indeed, they hosted the Broncos and Texans in Weeks #2 and #3 before resting last week.
Over a four-year period, home favorites coming off a bye week have posted a 26-20-2 record against the spread (ATS).
Pittsburgh has very few injured players too! Other than right tackle Zach Banner and backup offensive lineman Stefen Wisniewski, there’s no notable players who are banged up. Although JuJu Smith-Schuster and cornerback Joe Haden just popped on the injury list today, but they seem to have a fair chance of suiting up this Sunday.
Philly, on the other hand, is dealing with lots of injuries. I won’t list them all, but the situation on the offensive line is particularly worrisome. That’s very bad news when facing a ferocious defense like Pittsburgh! Jason Peters and Isaac Seumalo are officially out for this game, while Lane Johnson is questionable.
I’m taking the Steelers to handle their state rival by more than a touchdown.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS -7 AT NEW YORK JETS
When will the Jets finally fire Adam Gase? It seems super obvious that he needs to go. He’s a horrible head coach. I believe Sam Darnold has talent, but he’s been regressing under Gase, who was supposed to be an offensive mastermind. I could see Darnold flourishing once Gase is gone, or if Darnold goes to another team.
The Jets are not playing like a team. They are blowing assignments and taking way too many penalties. They are not disciplined and repeatedly make dumb things on the field. Again, it all starts with the head coach to fix those issues.
As long as Gase is the leader, fading the Jets sounds like a good plan.
Both of the Jets’ tackles are uncertain to play this weekend: George Fant and Mekhi Becton. Even their backup, Chuma Edoga, is banged up.
Joe Flacco will be under center for the Jets following Darnold’s shoulder injury. Over the past five seasons, Flacco has thrown 70 TD passes versus 51 interceptions. That’s not a good ratio at all. He’s 35 years old and unlikely to be the savior.
Arizona is coming off two consecutive losses to ordinary teams after beating the 49ers and the Redskins. I do believe they will rebound; they simply cannot afford to lose this game and won’t take it lightly.
The rest factor is not favoring the Cards, though. They will be playing an early game on the East Coast, but such teams have been beating the spread at a higher rate over the recent years. The Jets benefit from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. However, bad teams don’t benefit as much from extra rest compared to elite ones.
I’m banking on Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins to hammer the Jets, which might finally put an end to Adam Gase’s tenure as the Jets’ head coach.
PICK #3 (1 STAR): NEW YORK GIANTS +9.5 AT DALLAS COWBOYS
I can’t say I’m overly confident about this play, but there are so many betting angles pointing in the Giants’ direction that I can’t ignore them.
First, the bad news. New York’s offense has been very anemic this season. They haven’t scored more than 16 points in any game, while averaging less than 12 points per match! That’s awful!
The Giants will also be playing a third road game out of their past four meetings, including a long trip to Los Angeles last week.
Now, the good news. Here are two betting strategies I’ve been following recently who both support taking the Giants this week:
a) Bet a bad team facing a divisional opponent on the road when coming off a loss by more than seven points (60-40-2 ATS record);
b) Bet a bad team who is established as a road underdog by more than seven points if they are coming off at least four straight games in which they were underdogs (63-45-1 ATS record.I also like the revenge factor here. Last year, the Cowboys handled the Giants easily in both matchups: 35-17 in Dallas, 37-18 in New York.
You’ve also probably heard of the rash of injuries in Dallas. I especially like to focus on offensive line injuries since they play a key role and are undervalued by the general public. Center Joe Looney is out, as well as right tackle Cam Erving. Also, the status of left tackle Tyron Smith is still up in the air.
Some might argue the Cowboys will be super motivated after such an embarrassing loss to the Browns. Fair enough, and to be honest that’s one of my main concerns when picking the Giants here. But the counterargument would be that Dallas is playing on their heels and don’t have much confidence right now.
Personally, I’m tempted to buy half a point and grab the Giants at +10 points. That would make me feel more comfortable with this pick.
Best of luck, my friends!!!
PS Following the death of our 9-year old Golden Retriever named Player on May 11, my family and I have decided to get a new one. Here is the very first picture of him! We're going to name him Cooper. Really excited about getting him in 37 days from now!
- Sportwetten and bookiebasher
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If you have bet the “over” in every single NFL game in 2020, you are a rich man!
Indeed, the “over” holds an impressive 30-18 record so far; that’s a 62.5% win percentage.
This week, I’m going to mix some “regular” picks against the spread with some plays on totals, and also an additional pick where I’m taking a team in the first quarter.
Without further ado, let’s review my value bets for Week #4 in the NFL!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +7 AT TAMPA BAY BUCS
I do not like picking West Coast teams playing an early Sunday game, but I’ll make an exception here.
The Chargers have been involved in tight games thus far this season, thanks to their stout defense. Their most impressive game might have been one of their two losses: an overtime thriller against the Chiefs. Did you see what Kansas City did to Baltimore last week? They CRUSHED them. Knowing that the Chargers could have beaten them reinforces my confidence that Los Angeles can manage to cover the 7-point spread in Tampa.
Meanwhile, the Bucs have looked good recently, but they beat two weak teams: the Carolina Panthers and the injury-riddled Denver Broncos. In Week #1, they lost by 11 points to the Saints.
My level of confidence decreases due to injuries, as the Chargers seem more decimated than Tampa Bay. The Bucs will be missing star wide receiver Chris Godwin, and maybe running back Leonard Fournette and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting.
For Los Angeles, defensive end Melvin Ingram is out, as well as starting CB Chris Harris. That hurts, even though Desmond King is a very capable replacement for Harris.
The Chargers had also already lost center Mike Pouncey, and now they have Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner listed as questionable. Backups Trey Pipkins and Forrest Lamp both received awful ProFootballFocus grades last week: 37.5 and 44.8, respectively. That’s brutal!
I believe the public is overreacting to last week’s results. Sure, the Chargers lost to the lowly Panthers, but they were killed by four turnovers. They dominated total yardage, total first downs, and even converted 10-of-15 third down situations. Tampa Bay cruised to an easy 28-to-10 victory over the Broncos, who were missing TONS of starters at key positions.
If not for the Chargers injuries, I’d rate this play five stars.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): CHICAGO BEARS +0.5 FIRST QUARTER VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts cruised to an easy 36-7 win over the Jets last week. That sets up the table nicely for a soft start in Chicago this week, which is why I’m banking on the Bears to at least tie the first quarter against Indy.
Moreover, the Colts will be missing two receivers: Parris Campbell and rookie Michael Pittman. I don’t trust Zach Pascal too much, and T.Y. Hilton has not done much damage this year with 3 or 4 receptions in each game thus far. Indy’s secondary has also been hit by the injury bug with safety Malik Hooker out and CB Rock Ya-Sin listed as questionable.
Meanwhile, the Bears are relatively healthy, except for backup RB Tarik Cohen.
I’m betting Chicago to start the game strong. Replacing Mitchell Trubisky by Nick Foles at quarterback is like a breath of fresh air for the Bears.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +7 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
I would find it very uncomfortable to bet a team to win by 8 points or more against a Bill Belichick-coached squad. He just finds ways to stop your best players, and force you to play to your weaknesses.
We had another perfect example last week. Darren Waller is clearly the Raiders’ top receiving target. He looked unstoppable against the Saints, where he caught 12 passes for over 100 yards. The Pats did everything they could to stop him: he was limited to two receptions for a meager 9 yards. They forced Derek Carr to throw to other receivers, and their offense ended up struggling to find a good rhythm.
I’m betting that Bill Belichick reviewed very carefully the Chiefs-Ravens game and he won’t let that happen to his defense. He will take notes on how the Chargers were able to slow down Kansas City’s high-powered offense back in Week #2.
Here are a couple more arguments favoring this play. First, the Chiefs lose one day of preparation following their Monday night matchup with Baltimore. Also, the Pats will be looking to avenge a 23-to-16 home loss to the Chiefs last year in Week 14.
New England center David Andrews will miss the game and he will be replaced by an unproven guy whose name I cannot pronounce (Hjalte Froholdt). That’s a source of concern.
The Chiefs could be without stud defensive tackle Chris Jones and right guard Andrew Wylie. Their status is still up in the air.
I like the Pats to cover the 7-point spread.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): MIAMI DOLPHINS +6.5 VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Miami has the rest factor going their way, as they will be benefiting from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. Also, Seattle will be traveling through three time zones to play a game that will feel like 10 AM Pacific Time at kickoff this Sunday.
This matchup also has all the looks of a trap game for the Seahawks. They are coming off big meetings against the Patriots and the Cowboys. Facing a mediocre Dolphins team clearly does not look super enticing for Seattle.
The line opened at 6.5, then moved to 7 points after the Sunday games. Sharp money backed the Dolphins pretty hard, which forced sportsbooks to go back to 6.5. If the line goes back to 7, I’m going to add more money to my initial investment on Miami.
The Seahawks have quite a few guys whose status for Sunday is uncertain: running backs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, cornerback Quinton Dunbar, tight end Will Dissly, but most importantly safety Jamal Adams and offensive linemen Mike Iupati and Ethan Pocic.
On Miami’s side, the only noteworthy player on the injury list is cornerback Byron Jones, who could be back after missing the Week #3 meeting with the Jaguars.
The Dolphins are coming off a convincing win in Jacksonville as 3-point underdogs. Prior to this victory, they had lost to a couple of very tough opponents: Buffalo and New England. In both cases, they kept the score close.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a true warrior and he won’t have trouble putting points on the board against a defense that has allowed an average of 29 points this year.
BETS ON TOTALS
Here is the average number of points scored in each of the three weeks so far this season: 47.4, 53.3 and 52.2. Overall, 51 points have been scored on average per matchup. That’s the highest scoring the league has ever seen through three weeks.
As a comparison, the average line on totals in Week #4 is currently 49.8. I don’t see any reason why scoring should go down. After a rocky offseason due to covid-19, defensive tackling might improve, but offenses are finding their rhythm and timing.
Here are four games where I would bet the over:
-Over 43 Colts-Bears
-Over 51 Cards-Lions
-Over 53.5 Seahawks-Dolphins
-Over 56.5 Falcons-Packers (these two teams combined have been involved in games where the average number of points was 67.5!!!)$250,000 MEGA CONTEST (BetOnline sportsbook)
Through the first three weeks, out of 2671 participants, I’m currently sitting in 2nd place with 13 correct picks versus only two that missed.
Wish me luck for the $4,000 quarterly prize, which will be awarded to the top contestant through the first 4 weeks!
Enjoy your weekend, and let’s crush those bookies together!!!
- Snoopdog and Sportwetten
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A lot of great matchups in Week #3 in the NFL:
- Chiefs-Ravens
- Packers-Saints
- Cowboys-Seahawks
- Rams-Bills
Let’s hope the games live up to the hype!
Unlike the first two weeks, I do not have any 5-star or 4-star plays.
Still, I’ve got four recommended picks. Let me unveil them right away!
PICK #1 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6 VS LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Cam Newton looks in great shape. He ran for 75 and 47 yards in his first two games as a Patriot, and has shown great accuracy as a passer. Also, the defense has done pretty well despite the numerous departures in the offseason. Overall, I have to admit New England is playing at a higher level than I expected.
The Patriots have done very well under Bill Belichick following a straight up loss. Coming off a tight loss in Seattle, I wouldn’t put money against them for sure, especially considering the Raiders will lose one full day of rest after playing the Monday nighter.
Also, keep in mind the Raiders will be traveling through three time zones, while playing a game that will feel like it’s 10 AM Las Vegas time. To be fair, such teams from the West Coast playing a 1 PM Eastern Time match went a perfect 2-0 last week (3-0 if you include Denver who went through two time zones). Still, we’re talking about a small sample size so I won’t worry about it too much.
The injuries on the offensive line for the Raiders are worrisome. Left guard Richie Incognito is out, which by itself is already a big blow. Right tackle Trent Brown, his backup Sam Young and Incognito’s backup Denzelle Good are all listed as questionable right now. Ouch. That could spell trouble for Derek Carr, who is not the most mobile quarterback in the league.
Finally, star running back Josh Jacobs is being bothered by a hip injury. I’m pretty sure he’ll take the field Sunday, but he’s not 100%.
Following a big upset in New Orleans on primetime television, I expect a bit of a letdown by Las Vegas. I’m taking New England to beat the 6-point spread here.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): DALLAS COWBOYS +5 AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
I am aware that Dallas has many key injuries and that Russell Wilson has played at a MVP level. However, we are still getting the Cowboys as 5-point underdogs with Prescott-Elliott-Cooper-Gallup-Lamb in the lineup, right? No matter what, these guys can certainly keep the game tight and won’t go down easily.
I also want to argue that the Cowboys offensive line is hurt, but the effect won’t be as bad when facing Seattle’s defensive line. L.J. Collier has 0 career sack. Poona Ford has picked up just half a sack in the NFL. Jarran Reed recorded 10.5 sacks in 2018, but had just five in his three other seasons combined! As for Benson Mayowa, he had seven sacks with the Raiders last year, but was it an outlier? He had a total of 13 sacks in his previous five seasons, despite playing a minimum of 12 games in each one.
Say what you want about this matchup, the Cowboys will make it tough on Seattle with such an explosive offense.
Quick remark: I spoke earlier about Russell Wilson playing like a MVP. Before the season began, I discussed six players whose MVP odds were too high, in my opinion. My top pick was Wilson at +1400 odds. According to BetOnline.ag, he is now the favorite to win the award with +325 odds. This bet is looking great so far! I also recommended Josh Allen at +6000 odds; right now he’s at +1400 odds. Again, we got a great bargain prior to the 2020 season! Finally, one of my long shots was Joe Burrow at +21,484 odds. After two good outings, the odds have now gone down significantly to +8,000. See the full article here.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): NEW YORK GIANTS +4 VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Once again I’m fading a West Coast team playing a 1 PM game, but to be honest it was not part of my decision process here. The Niners played the other team from New York last week, so based on what I read they stayed on the East Coast between the two matchups.
My main argument concerns the difference between the actual point spread versus what it was before the Week #2 games. A week ago, early lines had the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites at the Giants. Following what happened in Week #2, oddsmakers lowered the line from 6.5 to 4.
In my opinion, the drop is not big enough. The Giants lost Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard, which is pretty significant.
But you have certainly heard of the rash of injuries on San Francisco’s side. Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Deebo Samuel, Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas and Dee Ford are all likely out. And linebacker Dre Greenlaw is uncertain to take the field. That’s unbelievable!
Nick Mullens is expected to be under center this weekend for the Niners. He’s an undrafted quarterback who has 13 career TD passes versus 11 interceptions. And he has minus-21 career rushing yards.
The Giants defense is not bad defending the run with players like Dalvin Tomlinson, Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence on the line. That matches up perfectly for a meeting against a team whose QB is an unproven passer. The Giants will dare the Niners to throw the ball, and I don’t trust Nick Mullens to become a superstar.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): CHICAGO BEARS +3 AT ATLANTA FALCONS
I don’t like this pick as much as I did earlier in the week since the line moved from 3.5 to 3. Half a point may not look super significant, but we’re talking about a move to the key number 3 (a win by a field goal).
Chicago is 2-0, while Atlanta is 0-2. Granted, the Bears faced two fairly weak opponents (the Lions and the Giants), while the Falcons played two tough ones (the Seahawks and the Cowboys).
Still, before the season began the Bears were expected to win 8 games versus 7.5 for the Falcons, according to odds on win totals. Based on the first two weeks, it seems right to view those squads as .500 teams. Since home-field advantage in front of empty stadiums should be worth around two points, I really liked the Bears +3.5. I am still picking them with the new +3 line, but I don’t like it as much.
Mitchell Trubisky is doing better than expected, and Chicago’s defense is playing well. Meanwhile, the Falcons offense is firing on all cylinders, but its defense cannot stop anyone.
The Bears don’t have any notable player on the injury list, except Khalil Mack. However, he is very likely to suit up this Sunday, which means the Bears will be playing with their full lineup.
The same cannot be said about the Falcons. My gosh, the injury list is a long one.
RT Kaleb McGary is very likely to miss the contest. The following players were listed as questionable as of Wednesday, which means they have a 50-50 chance of playing: LT Jake Matthews, DE Dante Fowler, safety Damontae Kazee, DE Takkarist McKinley, LB Foyesade Oluokun and DT Tyeler Davison.
And I’m also omitting a few rotational players, plus star wide receiver Julio Jones who is clearly hampered by a hamstring injury.
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The Dolphins versus Jaguars matchup is not very exciting, so why not spice it up with a little bet?
Prior to the start of the 2020 season, Jacksonville was projected to be the league’s worst team. This week, they are established as 3-point favorites. In other words, we have the opportunity to bet against them, while also getting 3 points! I’m taking that bet.
PICK: MIAMI DOLPHINS +3 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
I have to admit the Jags have done surprisingly well thus far this year. First, they beat the Colts 27-to-20 before dropping a tight 33-to-30 game in Tennessee.
Now, despite an 0-2 record, the Dolphins were competitive in both of their losses against tough opponents: the Patriots and the Bills.
Let’s now discuss injuries on both sides. Jacksonville will be missing its starting free safety Jarrod Wilson. He missed last week’s game and his backup, undrafted free agent Andrew Wingard, received a fairly poor 51.0 ProFootballFocus grade in Week #2.
Center Brandon Linder left the game against the Titans and he’s unlikely to suit up for a short turnaround on Thursday night. Tyler Shatley will start at the pivot. He entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2014 and has been an average lineman (at best) throughout his career.
The team’s #1 wide receiver, D.J. Chark, is listed as questionable but he appears good to go.
The Dolphins have three notable guys who may miss the game. First, linebacker Shaq Lawson has a 50-50 chance of playing the Thursday nighter.
My main concern about this game revolves around the status of the team’s top two cornerbacks, both of which have pocketed HUGE contracts: Byron Jones and Xavien Howard.
Jones left last week’s game with a groin injury and I don’t believe he’ll be in the lineup. Howard is more likely to play.
If both corners cannot go, the team could be in trouble, even though Gardner Minshew won’t get confused with Aaron Rodgers as a passer. The backups are Nik Needham and rookie Noah Igbinoghene. Needham came into the league last year as an undrafted guy and he received below average marks, according to PFF. In Week #2 against the Bills, he was abysmal.
As for Igbinoghene, he was picked as the #30 overall selection in this year’s draft. He needs more time to develop. PFF tagged him with a fairly poor 54.8 grade in Week #1 before getting an awful 29.3 mark last week.
In summary, the injuries at the cornerback position worry me, but I’m betting Miami purely based on the teams’ relative strength. I think the two teams are of equal strength, with the Dolphins perhaps being slightly better. I simply trust Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki and their adequate trio of running backs more than Minshew, Chark, Conley and running back James Robinson.
Therefore, since I believe home-field advantage is worth about 2 points in this special 2020 season, I’m taking the Dolphins +3 points in Jacksonville.
Before wrapping this up, I also want to add that I trust Miami’s coaching a lot more than Jacksonville’s. Brian Flores did a remarkable job in 2019 by leading the team to five wins, despite the team’s attempt to tank in order to land the #1 draft pick.
Meanwhile, Doug Marrone came very close from getting fired at the end of last year. Somehow, he retained his job, but I don’t view him as a top coach in this league.
Enjoy the game and I’ll be back soon with my full Week #3 picks!
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The 5-star pick was a winner last week! And so was the 4-star play!
In both cases, we had taken a fairly big underdog that eventually won the game outright: the Arizona Cardinals (as 7-point underdogs in San Francisco) and the Washington Redskins (as 6.5-point underdogs vs Philadelphia).
If not for Detroit’s epic fourth-quarter collapse, the picks rated 3 stars or higher would have gone a perfect 4-0.
Let’s keep rolling!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
What?!?!? Last week my top play went to Arizona, and now in Week #2 my favorite bet goes against them?
There is something about this Washington team. They went through many negative news over the past few months. First, it was reported there was a culture of sexual harassment and discrimination within the organization, which started with the owner Daniel Snyder.
Also, the team has a lackluster roster with few big names. Heck, the team doesn’t even have a name right now! Even their head coach is facing an uphill battle as he was diagnosed with cancer.
Washington trailed 17-0 against the Eagles, which didn’t surprise many people. Then, somehow, Washington stormed back with 27 unanswered points. Rivera was hooked to an IV during halftime, and quarterback Dwayne Haskins took the opportunity to deliver an inspiring speech that motivated the whole team.
I don’t believe this win was a fluke. Washington’s motivation and focus will go a long way towards surprising many people this year. Make no mistake about it; this game won’t be a cakewalk for the Cardinals.
Four defensive linemen from Washington picked up 5 QB pressures or more last week. That’s impressive! Given how weak Arizona’s offensive line is, there will often be Washington defenders in the backfield disrupting plays. To top it all off, center Mason Cole is questionable to play, while left tackle D.J. Humphries is nursing a lower-body injury.
Also, Arizona’s defense is not scaring anyone. They did a fine job last week in San Francisco, but keep in mind the Niners were lacking playmakers, especially at the wide receiver position. Granted, Washington is not loaded on offense either, but they do have a couple of game breakers with Terry McLaurin and rookie Antonio Gibson. Dwayne Haskins is also progressing nicely after a rough start to his NFL career a year ago.
I expect a very tight game. Arizona might come away with the win, but it won’t be easy at all. I like this play quite a bit.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): TENNESSEE TITANS -8.5 VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
I smell a blowout here.
Most bookies have a spread of 8.5 or 9, but bwin has 8 right now, which is nice value in my opinion.
The Jags shocked the Colts 27-to-20 last week. But did you look at the numbers? Indy picked up 27 first downs versus just 17 for Jacksonville. The Colts outgained their opponent 445 to 241 in terms of total offensive yards. Clearly, the Jags were helped by Philip Rivers’ two interceptions.
That’s unlikely to happen against a smart Tennessee team. Coming into the season, remember that Jacksonville was projected to be the league’s worst team. They have a pretty bad roster.
Also, Jacksonville’s two starting safeties may miss the game. Jarrod Wilson has already been declared out, while Josh Jones is questionable. The #9 overall pick from this year’s draft, cornerback C.J. Henderson, may not be available either due to a concussion. Ryan Tannehill must be licking his chops.
Granted, cornerback Adoree’ Jackson is out for Tennessee. But that’s about it in terms of significant injuries for the Titans.
It wasn’t easy for Tennessee in Week #1, as they came away with a 16-14 win in Denver. If not for Stephen Gostkowski missing three field goals and one extra point, the Titans would have won 26-14. Now playing a much weaker Jacksonville team, I’ll predict a 20-point win favoring the Titans.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 AT CHICAGO BEARS
Last summer, the Bears were established as 5-point favorites for this matchup in very early NFL lines.
Considering the lack of fans, home teams should now be less favored. This has been reflected in most Week #2 meetings, but not here. The Giants should be 3 or 3.5-point underdogs.
An inflated line would be reasonable if the Giants had done significantly worse than expected in Week #1, or if the Bears had done an exceptional job in their first match. But that has not been the case.
Daniel Jones did a good job against the stout Steelers defense last Monday night. That’s very encouraging for the kid. The good news is he will also get one of his top targets back on the field, Golden Tate. He missed the season opener due to a hamstring injury, but he has a good chance to suit up this Sunday.
Saquon Barkley could not get going at all against Pittsburgh. He has a chance to explode this week after seeing the Bears allowing 4.8 yards per carry to the Lions last week.
I also like how the Giants defense matches up against the Bears. New York’s defensive line is very effective against the run. That should force Chicago to throw the ball more, and I don’t trust Mitchell Trubisky to light up the scoreboard.
For these reasons, I am taking the Giants to cover the 5.5-point spread.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Do you really want to bet against the Chiefs with three extra days of rest, following their Thursday night matchup with the Texans? I don’t.
In injury news, K.C.’s best cornerback, Charvarius Ward, is likely out with a fractured hand. That’s the main reason why this pick is not rated higher. Center Austin Reiter was recently upgraded from questionable to probable with a knee injury, so that’s reassuring.
On the Chargers side, they have a couple of offensive linemen whose status is uncertain: center Mike Pouncey and right guard Trai Turner. To make matters worse, their star defensive end Joey Bosa has an injured triceps, but he should be in the lineup. However, linebacker Drue Tranquill is out for several weeks.
In Week #1, the Chargers barely beat the Bengals, a game they could have easily lost if not for a questionable offensive pass interference penalty awarded to A.J. Green in the final seconds of the game. Los Angeles did not impress me one bit, including quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The difference between Patrick Mahomes and Tyrod Taylor is huge, and the surrounding cast in Kansas City is also much better.
The only advantage the Chargers hold is with their defense, whom I believe is slightly better. However, they’ll have trouble keeping up with the Chiefs offense who should have no problem scoring many points. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense won’t be able to keep up the pace.
PICK #5 (1 STAR): LOS ANGELES RAMS PICK’EM AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Man, the injuries are just piling up for the Eagles!
First, they had lost for the entire season two important pieces on the offensive line: Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard.
Now, safety Will Parks, defensive end Vinny Curry and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery are out several weeks.
The following players are tagged as questionable for Week #2: DE Brandon Graham, LT Jason Peters (that would be a massive blow!), DT Javon Hargrave and RB Boston Scott.
Finally, we’ve got a few more guys listed as probable: DE Derek Barnett, RT Lane Johnson (what??? Another offensive lineman on the injury list?) and RB Miles Sanders. These players are likely to play this weekend, but they won’t be 100%.
Meanwhile, the only player worth of note appearing on the Rams’ injury list is tight end Gerald Everett, but he has a strong shot to be available.
In other words, there is a GIGANTIC gap between the two teams’ health. I don’t believe the injuries are being properly accounted for in the current line. The Eagles were 4-point favorites during the summer. Given the lack of fans, the point spread should be down to about 2 or 2.5.
So, basically, the line was adjusted an additional 2-2.5 points due to a combination of injuries and the performance of both teams last week. That’s not enough, in my humble opinion.
The Rams played a very solid game against the Cowboys. Keep in mind that Dallas is among one of the Super Bowl favorites. Jared Goff was very accurate, and he has good weapons around him with Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.
Their running game surprised me too, especially Malcolm Brown. I thought he might end up being the #3 running back behind rookie Cam Akers and 2019 third-round pick Darrell Henderson, but the undrafted runner out of Texas got the most touches and ran very well. Indeed, he rushed 18 times for 79 yards and scored a couple of touchdowns.
With all the injuries on Philly’s offensive line, Carson Wentz is guaranteed to have nightmares every single night this week when thinking about what Aaron Donald might do to him this Sunday.
Have a nice weekend and thanks for reading my friend!
- Sportwetten and harry_rag
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Week #1 in the NFL is finally upon us!
Right off the bat I’ve got a great betting angle that’s been doing wonders historically in Week #1:
"Bet a team facing a divisional opponent against which they lost both meetings the year before."
Let’s call it the “Week #1 Double Division Revenge” factor.
Over the past 10 years, this strategy led to an astounding 22-10 record against the spread (ATS), a 68.8% win rate!
This year we’ve got five teams meeting this criterion for betting. Out of those, there’s one squad I won’t bet for different reasons, while the other four are all part of my weekly picks.
We are starting strong, already with a 5-star play!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS +7 AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
First of all, the Cards represent a good bet according to the Double Division Revenge strategy described earlier. Arizona lost 28-25 at home and 36-26 on the road against the Niners last year.
Secondly, teams who had a losing record the year before facing a team that had a winning record tend to do very well in Week #1. Indeed, they have gone 89-57 ATS since 1990 (61.0%), and 46-23 ATS since 2006 (66.7%). Arizona finished with a 5-10-1 record in 2019 versus 13-3 for San Francisco.
Thirdly, the betting public could be overlooking the injury bug that’s been hitting the 49ers recently.
At wide receiver, the team is in trouble. Deebo Samuel is either out, or will be on a snap count due to a foot injury. Following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders to New Orleans, who was set to become their #2 guy? The answer wasn’t clear to begin with, and things got even worse in the past few weeks. Travis Benjamin, Jalen Hurd and Tavon Austin are all out.
Rookie Brandon Aiyuk was projected to be the starter opposite Samuel, but he’s also hurt and his status is uncertain. Kendrick Bourne and/or Trent Taylor might need to be more involved, which is hardly good news.
The defense also has numerous guys who are questionable or banged up: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Dee Ford and K’Waun Williams.
For these reasons, I’m going to back the Cards. Now in their second year in the NFL, QB Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury should be more comfortable. I would not fall off my chair if Arizona won the game outright. As you could read in my 49ers 2020 preview, I’m afraid their 2019 season was a fluke.
PICK #2 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
In 2019, Washington lost both matchups with the Eagles: 32-27 in Philly and 37-27 in D.C. In other words, the Double Division Revenge betting angle applies here.
Also, who likes to put his money on a team that finished 3-13 a year ago? Only contrarians like myself do.
Injuries have already taken a toll on Philly’s roster. Alshon Jeffery is out, and rookie Jalen Reagor is questionable but likely out as well. That leaves the team with 33-year old DeSean Jackson, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward as starters. Not good.
The organization also lost two key pieces on their offensive line: stud right guard Brandon Brooks and left tackle Andre Dillard. Ouch.
That’s not it. Starting safety Will Parks is out, while Javon Hargrave, a beast on the defensive line, is banged up with a pectoral strain. Finally, running back Miles Sanders will be in the lineup, but a hamstring injury is bothering him.
I was close to rating it 5 stars, but one factor stopped me from pulling the trigger on this one. I don’t like the fact that Washington has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. That’s far from ideal in Week #1.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): DETROIT LIONS -3 VS CHICAGO BEARS
Once again, we’ve got the Double Division Revenge betting strategy on our side. Indeed, Detroit lost 20-13 in Chicago and 24-20 at home last season against Da Bears.
Starting running back David Montgomery is likely out, or limited. The backups are Tarik Cohen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce, who have combined for 83 carries in 2019. I liked Cohen a lot early in his career, but he was plain awful last year.
I do believe the Lions are an underrated team who could explode this year. They have much more talent than you’d think. Matthew Stafford has been great throughout his career, but he doesn’t get the credit he deserves because his teams have done badly.
The defense has a lot of new faces: Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon and #3 overall pick Jeffrey Okudah. They are likely to lift this unit, but how much time will it take to gel?
PICK #4 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -3 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Covid-19 virus forced the NFL to shorten its training camps and to cancel all preseason games. That’s likely to have the following impact:
Teams with more continuity will have a big advantage over teams who don’t. In other words, having the same coaching staff and the same core players will provide a huge advantage.
That favors the Raiders in a big way over the Panthers.
On one hand, Las Vegas retained the same coaching staff, while Carolina has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. What makes it even worse is these three guys have just 7 years of combined NFL experience. To put things in perspective, the team with the second-lowest NFL experience among its coaches has 31 years behind the belt. There is an overwhelming gap between Carolina and any other squad.
The Panthers may also be the team that had the largest player turnover this offseason. On offense, they have a new QB (Teddy Bridgewater), a new No.2 WR (Robby Anderson), a new starting tight end with Greg Olsen leaving the franchise and 2-3 new starters on the offensive line.
As for the defense, the unit lost Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Bruce Irvin, Mario Addison, Luke Kuechly and James Bradberry (omitting a few more players that are now off the team). Unreal.
I’m taking the more stable Raiders team since Carolina might be lacking cohesion and timing on both sides of the ball.
PICK #5 (2 STARS): MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
Again, the Double Division Revenge factor comes into play. Minnesota lost both meetings with the team from the Frozen Tundra: 21-16 in Green Bay, 23-10 in Minnesota.
This pick is not rated very high because that’s pretty much the lone argument favoring them. Green Bay returns the same coaching staff, while the Vikes have a new OC and a new DC.
You could argue, though, that the Packers defense’s Achilles heel was its run defense, which happens to be Minnesota’s strength with Dalvin Cook leading the way (and a very promising RB #2 in Alexander Mattison).
Both teams have a hole at the WR #2 position. Can Allen Lazard or Bisi Johnson truly assume that role for their respective teams? I doubt it.
I’m also afraid the Vikings defense might regress significantly after losing many key pieces like Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph and three cornerbacks.
PICK #6 (1 STAR): HOUSTON TEXANS +9 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Big underdogs have fared very well in the opening week of NFL regular seasons.
As a matter of fact, 8+ points underdogs have gone 43-25 ATS in recent years in Week #1; that’s a 63.2% winning play.
I think the DeAndre Hopkins trade was horrible for the Texans, but they still have a strong WR corps with Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. And the team still has one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Deshaun Watson.
Their defense worries me, though. Their secondaries are fairly bad, which does not bode well when facing the Chiefs aerial attack! Also, losing stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader is a blow.
I do think the Chiefs defense is pretty bad and overrated, so I’m hoping the Texans can keep the score close enough to cover this big point spread.
Enjoy Week #1 and I’ll talk to you again very soon!
- Johnny1, gg-77, bookiebasher and 1 other
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NHL System Picks 2021 by Professor MJ
in NHL & Ice Hockey Predictions
Posted
NHL PICK FOR MARCH 11
Hit the Minnesota Wild pick yesterday to bring us back to 1-1 and up 0.1u.
RECORD:
Bets won = 1
Bets lost = 1
Profit = +0.1 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from BetOnline at 8:37 am Eastern Time):
Buffalo Sabres (at +175) vs Pittsburgh
This pick is based on two betting systems – the one I like the most is "The Hot Scorers" system, which goes as follows:
Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games (not necessarily wins). FADE them if they are playing on the road today.
This strategy, over many seasons, produced a 45.08-unit profit over 332 bets (a 13.6% ROI).
The Penguins have scored 4, 5 and 4 goals in their past three contests, respectively so we are betting against them.
Good luck!
Professor MJ