cialivinci

Alright guys, the 2019 tennis season is more or less officially over, so it's time for a fairly long review of what happened.
On the sporting side of things, I think that we had a fairly intriguing season. I am, of course, hugely disappointed that we don't have any new Grand Slam winners, with Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal splitting all four titles evenly, but Daniil Medvedev came agonizingly close in the US Open and I think that the final there was actually the match of the year for me. I reckon that some of you will claim that the Wimbledon finals were the real thing, but I unfortunately didn't actually get to see that one, so I have no idea about what actually happened apart from the scoreboard changes. I did get to watch Nadal-Medvedev in the middle of the night while a storm was raging outside, however, so yeah, that was an interesting experience :D.
The second ATP story of the year that I'd like to highlight here was Murray's comeback, as I was genuinely convinced that he wouldn't be able to do much after his loss against.....er...I think it was Viola. He did grab a title afterwards in style, however, and I think that he might do even more in 2020. It's hard to say how much he can do in the physically-more-demanding Grand Slams, but he should be very dangerous everywhere else.
As far as the WTA is concerned, well, it's still a mess, isn't it? And I think that we have Clijsters or someone coming back next year as well, which is honestly just crazy - if she's going to make it, it really is going to speak volumes about the difference between ATP and WTA, I really can't imagine that we'd have Radek Stepanek or someone making a singles comeback in the same vein :D. The Grand Slams were obviously quite exciting with the Williams story and with seven different players occupying those eight final places, which is just really good for the game imo. It's great to have Bianca coming up, but I'm really sad that Marketa Vondrousova is yet another of those great talents trapped in awfully frail bodies. I'm getting Djokovic vibes whenever I see her play for some reason, but, well, she's currently after a surgery and we haven't see her since Wimbledon, so I'm not sure what the state of affairs is going to be next year.
On the forum side of things, the activity has picked up quite a bit in comparison with the previous season and we now have a nice mix of regulars and newcomers, so I'm really hoping that we are going to continue in the same fashion once the Australian Open starts. The passion always goes down a bit after the US Open and that is understandable, but I'd like to see all the guys here again in January. I'm not even going to name anyone, as I'm sure that I'd miss someone! In any case, I didn't even have to ban all that many people in 2019, which is just excellent!
And, finally, the betting side of things. While I was hoping to get to the lower levels of the competition, I didn't get to that for all sorts of reasons, so there were no easy pickings to be found anywhere. I'm hoping to get to exploring that area next year, especially if everything is still going to be so difficult on the main tours, but that's not for now, that's for later - and January is going to be all about the main tour anyway. Results-wise, I'm happy to say that 2019 was another profitable year, although I must admit that it wasn't as great as I was hoping it to be. Overall, it appears that I managed to place a grand total of 292 bets and that I ended with a decent ROI of 103%. I know that many people are still actively debating what ROI is achievable long term, but it's really hard for me to contribute to that, as it really depends on a great many of factors. I'm certainly guilty of being a bit overactive, which leads to some bad bets here and there, and I'm also guilty of not trying to exploit ITFs and Challengers as often as possible. I am going to try to change that if given a chance - and should lead to at least somewhat better results.
So, on that note, I hope that you are all going to have a great off-season, Christmas, etc., and I hope that we are all going to meet here either at the end of December or at least for the start of the Australian Open (January 20). I thank you all for being here and contributing!

I can see your point @lelit in terms of this tournament, but at the same time across the length and breadth of the season it's probably fair to call Sascha unreliable.

Berrettini +1.5 sets against Thiem at 1.83 Unibet.
Thiem is very good recently, no doubt. However, after a exhausting game against Djokovic, I think he will take this game easier. He will take it easier because he has already qualified for the semis and because he might want to rest a little bit. They have already played twice this year (1:1) and Berrettini took at least 1 set in both games. Italian has nothing to lose so he will play relaxed and I expect him to take 1 set.

Novak Djokovic (-1.5 sets) to beat Matteo Berrettini at 1.61 with Pinnacle
Right. As much as I admire Berrettini's heroic efforts from this season, he's unproven against the really top guys and he has the worst possible draw for the first round, as Djokovic will have to be in full focus with no qualification guaranteed and with every single set counting for something at the start of the tournament. That's why I think that there's some value even in such an obvious and public bet. No matter how you look at it, this is a must-win match for Djokovic - and chances are that he's going to grab the win without too many difficulties.

Peter Gojowczyk to beat Guido Pela at 2.55 with Parions Sport
These two players have already clashed 3 times. Pella won the only game on clay (in Barcelona last year), while Gojowczyk won in both hard games (the last one at the beginning of the year in Auckland). Pella will participate in this ATP 250 Belgian for the 3rd year in a row. He has never managed to pass this 1st round. For its part, Gojowczyk played only once this tournament in Antwerp. It was in 2017 and he failed to win his 1st match. Pella has not won a game since August 12 and won against Ruud in Cincinnati. Gojowczyk, meanwhile, is already 8 consecutive losses. The German does not succeed since his excellent performance in Washington last July (where he defeated Rublev, De Minaur, Raonic and Edmund).
I think Pella will be a favorite in this meeting. The Argentinian is not on his favorite surface, but he has a catchy tennis that annoys more than one player. He knows how to dismiss big services and hold long exchanges by staying behind his baseline line. However, I really want to believe in a victory of Gojowczyk. This indoor surface is perfect for him to regain confidence and play with his weapons. We must not forget that the German knows very well serve and use his power to overwhelm his opponents. The speed of the court could amplify this phenomenon and allow him to surprise Pella.
All series end one day. Gojowczyk could enjoy a more familiar surface to regain a taste for victory.

Roberto Bautista to beat Matteo Berrettini at 2.00
These two players have already clashed 3 times before. Berrettini has won twice, still on clay, while Bautista won the only game played on hard (in Doha, last season). Berrettini is taking part in the Shanghai Masters 1000 for the 1st time in his career, and he seems to like it. The Italian has won this 1/8 final after victories over Struff and Garin. All without losing a set. Bautista, meanwhile, knows a little better this Chinese tournament. This is indeed his 6th participation. He had not managed to pass this stage last season, and his best performance is a final in 2016. Moreover, the Spaniard took advantage of his ranking to skip the 1st round, and won his first match against Opelka (in 2 sets and without tie-break).
After mediocre passages in St. Petersburg and Beijing, Berrettini seems to find colors in Shanghai. The Italian seems to appreciate this fast surface and it shows in his performances. I speak in particular of its effectiveness in the service but also during its offensive phases. On paper, Berrettini seems to be an interesting favorite, especially on this surface that favors large servers.
However, I sincerely believe that Bautista has what it takes to win the match. Even if the Italian plays well this week, he is not yet at the level of the one he proposed to us at the US Open. Then, because Bautista is not to take for a 3 weeks rabbit. The Spaniard has proved against this monster Opelka he had the weapons to counter the big servers. But he also showed that he was comfortable on fast surfaces and that he knew how to hold his games of service (it only has to see his statistics in this area during his last match). Finally, Bautista knows how to play with his head and is a very good tactician of the baseline. He knows that Berrettini's forehand is a danger and that he will have to insist on his setback. I will therefore focus on the experience and tactics of Bautista, to counter the ardor of a Berrettini who obviously has every chance in this game.

Well, Murray won against Berretini who played a crazy Us open and Thiem just managed to win in two Tiebreaks. I think Andy is much further in the „recovery“ than one might think.

Wow, Thiem making three double faults when serving for the match. WTF? 

Alexander Bublik to beat Casper Ruud at 1.83 with Bet365
Ruud has done absolutely nothing indoors so far, so I'm happy to take another Eastern European player in the form of Bublik here. He was very competent during the US Open and it's somewhat hard to trust players that are coming from Davis Cup weekends, so I think that Bublik should be priced at 1.60 or so here.

Shuai Peng (-3.5) to beat Paula Badosa Gibert at 1.80 with Bet365
Peng has finally started to rediscover her standard level of play and I expect her to be very dangerous during the Asian swing, at least as far as this type of matches is concerned. Gibert has some big shots, but her defense is awful and Peng can defend quite well herself, so, with the extra home conditions motivation thrown in, I wouldn't be shocked to see this become a very one-sided affair.

In case anyone wonders what I did with the pick - i did nothing. Literally nothing. I just sat there and watched the match. And I made more than a nice profit in the end. 

Well..just one more step for Bianca and also for me  
Obviously it's a huge step cause Serena is playing pretty well and she crushed Svitolina in big fashion,so i feel (or better to say fear) that she can win the final as well. Unfortunately my local bookie don't offer me a cash-out option,so i guess i have somehow to "close" or "defend" this pick. 

The problem is the odds are very unbalanced and Serena is a clear,big favorite. So,my question to you guys is - how can i do this? Is there a possibility to do so,or i have to wait for some in-play betting maybe?
Help 

Rather than continue posting about it I would suggest you put up your pick then for Medvedev to win the US Open. Go with your confidence.

Belinda Bencic to beat Donna Vekic at 1.56 with Pinnacle
Bencic looked absolutely stunning against Osaka the other day and, if she continues playing like that, she might be in with a chance to win the entire thing. We're obviously talking about women's tennis here and forms can change at a moment's notice in that sport, but Vekic is the less talented of the two and she should've lost in the previous round, where Goerges simply choked after a good start. Bencic should be far more solid and the fact that she has a 2-1 lead in the match-up also appeals, especially since the loss was on clay.

Zverev vs Schwartzmann no one to win in straight sets @1.53 with bet365 
I took this bet the three previous games of Zverev because of the certainty that he‘ll screw up at somepoint in the game. His game lacks consistency which is his biggest problem now while Schwartzmann for me plays a good season with some aggressive tennis. I expect many unforced errors and double faults of zverev but getting the job done to win at least one set... 
 

I'm going to take Rublev -1.5 sets. I can't see the match going to a 5th set. Rublev already beaten Berrettini this year in straight sets on the hard-court. I feel like he's beaten far better players than Berrettini also and to be honest I was suprised by the offering of evens on this.
5pts A.Rublev (-1.5 sets) to beat M.Berrettini evens betfair

Rafa Nadal vs Hyeon Chung Under 28,5 Games at 1.90 with bet365
This match starts now, I expect Rafa will win this very easily in straight sets

Das stimmt wohl, selbst bei djokovic oder Federer würde ich nie auf einen 3-0 Sieg Wetten, weil es denen eben nichts bedeutet, wenn die mal einen Satz abgeben.

Das stimmt wohl, selbst bei djokovic oder Federer würde ich nie auf einen 3-0 Sieg Wetten, weil es denen eben nichts bedeutet, wenn die mal einen Satz abgeben.

Das stimmt wohl, selbst bei djokovic oder Federer würde ich nie auf einen 3-0 Sieg Wetten, weil es denen eben nichts bedeutet, wenn die mal einen Satz abgeben.

Personally think Federer will take it relatively easily, Evans is playing really well but he's not got explosive power. He'll rally with Federer and once Fed gets the measure of you I think its over. If your unpredictable or just nailing the shots you might have a chance but beating Fed at his own game is much tougher.. 

I fancy this match to go quite long today. Atleast 4 sets, maybe 5. Both lack any real power and so you would expect long rallies. Nishikori the most likely to come through, but he rarely gets the job done with ease.
6pts Alex De Minaur Vs K.Nishikori (Over 38.5 games) 5/6 Bet365
 

I do wonder why they don't get started earlier when the schedule is behind. An 11am start seems quite late really. Surely they could get going at 9am (2pm UK time)

Rublev -4.5 Games vs Simon at 1.8 with @bet365  
just to see which kind of players rublev managed to win against in the last few weeks should be conviction enough that he will win here. Even with losing one set, i see him winning one set with 2 breaks. 

Zverev vs Albot no one to win in straight sets  at 1.61 with @bet365
Firstly i dont see zverev as i high favorite due to his personal issues and lack of persistance in his perfomances this year while Albot has a 30-17 record on hard court this year and could be dangerous against a not in form zverev which would make a bet against the favorite considerable.
I‘m going with a bit „safer“ alternative and say that no one will win in straight sets.