OddsPredictor

OK but remember you asked.
The OddsPredictor System works by rating each player. Players were given a starting rating for January 2019 based upon 2018 world rankings. After each match the players have a rating gain or rating loss based upon a statistical table created from past seasons. The players' Ratings change after each Result and the Prediction of likely results can be obtained from the difference in rating between the players. For the OddsPredictor system to work a number of variables must be set in the spreadsheet. Defaults have been set but users can amend these variables and therefore affect the number of predictions and level of stakes. Here are a few of the variables that can be changed;
Stake is the maximum amount to risk per match. Typically recommended stakes will be 50% of this amount. This allows you to match OddsPredictor to suit your pocket. 
Rating Factor is the maximum rating change that can occur from one match to the next. So for example if the player's success is expected to be h% and the player wins then the team's rating will increase by (100-h)% of the R Factor.
Rating High above which the R Factor is halved
Rating Low below which the R Factor is doubled
Bonus is the amount added to the rating change for victories by 2 sets to nil.
Surface is the independence between different surface performances. 100% being fully independent
Risk Percentage represents the level of difference between the predicted odds and the bookmakers odds before a result is eligible for prediction. The higher this factor the fewer but more likely predictions are made.
High maximum margin of risk for determining predictions. Useful for excluding matches with exceptional factors.
Start is the number of matches that must be played in a season before predictions are made. This allows time for the predictions to adjust for changes in players' strength from one season to the next.
Ex From and Ex To allows an exclusion period for predictions.
Longshot is the lowest forecast likelihood before excluding a prediction as a longshot. Enter 0% to allow all predictions.
Wiggle Room is the capacity for the system to modify the longshot.
Difference in Rating beyond which no predictions are selected
Knowledge is the level of book knowledge to alter future players' ratings if proved correct.
The system attempts to predict the 'TRUE' odds of a match if such a thing actually exists.
No attempt is made to necessarily select the most likely winner only value is of importance.
Feel free to download my spreadsheets from the OddsPredictor.Org.UK website which is of course completely free.   Thank you for your question but I expect I have bored everyone to death.   PS of the three selections posted to this thread in error 2 won so overall a small profit which is precisely what I am looking for.   3 matches is obviously a tiny sample so means nothing in itself but this season so far I have achieved a return of 13% from 50 selections so personally happy.    As stated in the very first post this was posted here in error and obviously no one here is interested so I will depart.  

I will say it one more time.
I posted in the wrong thread - immediately edited my post trying to delete it - could not delete the file with my predictions in.
I then got jumped on for giving predictions without verbal justification.
Yes this is an unfriendly thread so much so that I am not only leaving this thread but the whole forum - what a place!

As I keep saying I realised I had posted in the wrong thread but could not delete the message or edit the file.
Sorry I interfered with everyone's thoughts but I have to say I see little distinction between the above verbal analysis of a player's results by darko08 and the mathematical analysis of those same results quoted as a player's rating and compared to their opponents rating calculated from their results.
Yes you may be friendly to each other.

OK but remember you asked.
The OddsPredictor System works by rating each player. Players were given a starting rating for January 2019 based upon 2018 world rankings. After each match the players have a rating gain or rating loss based upon a statistical table created from past seasons. The players' Ratings change after each Result and the Prediction of likely results can be obtained from the difference in rating between the players. For the OddsPredictor system to work a number of variables must be set in the spreadsheet. Defaults have been set but users can amend these variables and therefore affect the number of predictions and level of stakes. Here are a few of the variables that can be changed;
Stake is the maximum amount to risk per match. Typically recommended stakes will be 50% of this amount. This allows you to match OddsPredictor to suit your pocket. 
Rating Factor is the maximum rating change that can occur from one match to the next. So for example if the player's success is expected to be h% and the player wins then the team's rating will increase by (100-h)% of the R Factor.
Rating High above which the R Factor is halved
Rating Low below which the R Factor is doubled
Bonus is the amount added to the rating change for victories by 2 sets to nil.
Surface is the independence between different surface performances. 100% being fully independent
Risk Percentage represents the level of difference between the predicted odds and the bookmakers odds before a result is eligible for prediction. The higher this factor the fewer but more likely predictions are made.
High maximum margin of risk for determining predictions. Useful for excluding matches with exceptional factors.
Start is the number of matches that must be played in a season before predictions are made. This allows time for the predictions to adjust for changes in players' strength from one season to the next.
Ex From and Ex To allows an exclusion period for predictions.
Longshot is the lowest forecast likelihood before excluding a prediction as a longshot. Enter 0% to allow all predictions.
Wiggle Room is the capacity for the system to modify the longshot.
Difference in Rating beyond which no predictions are selected
Knowledge is the level of book knowledge to alter future players' ratings if proved correct.
The system attempts to predict the 'TRUE' odds of a match if such a thing actually exists.
No attempt is made to necessarily select the most likely winner only value is of importance.
Feel free to download my spreadsheets from the OddsPredictor.Org.UK website which is of course completely free.   Thank you for your question but I expect I have bored everyone to death.   PS of the three selections posted to this thread in error 2 won so overall a small profit which is precisely what I am looking for.   3 matches is obviously a tiny sample so means nothing in itself but this season so far I have achieved a return of 13% from 50 selections so personally happy.    As stated in the very first post this was posted here in error and obviously no one here is interested so I will depart.  

As I keep saying I realised I had posted in the wrong thread but could not delete the message or edit the file.
Sorry I interfered with everyone's thoughts but I have to say I see little distinction between the above verbal analysis of a player's results by darko08 and the mathematical analysis of those same results quoted as a player's rating and compared to their opponents rating calculated from their results.
Yes you may be friendly to each other.

OK but remember you asked.
The OddsPredictor System works by rating each player. Players were given a starting rating for January 2019 based upon 2018 world rankings. After each match the players have a rating gain or rating loss based upon a statistical table created from past seasons. The players' Ratings change after each Result and the Prediction of likely results can be obtained from the difference in rating between the players. For the OddsPredictor system to work a number of variables must be set in the spreadsheet. Defaults have been set but users can amend these variables and therefore affect the number of predictions and level of stakes. Here are a few of the variables that can be changed;
Stake is the maximum amount to risk per match. Typically recommended stakes will be 50% of this amount. This allows you to match OddsPredictor to suit your pocket. 
Rating Factor is the maximum rating change that can occur from one match to the next. So for example if the player's success is expected to be h% and the player wins then the team's rating will increase by (100-h)% of the R Factor.
Rating High above which the R Factor is halved
Rating Low below which the R Factor is doubled
Bonus is the amount added to the rating change for victories by 2 sets to nil.
Surface is the independence between different surface performances. 100% being fully independent
Risk Percentage represents the level of difference between the predicted odds and the bookmakers odds before a result is eligible for prediction. The higher this factor the fewer but more likely predictions are made.
High maximum margin of risk for determining predictions. Useful for excluding matches with exceptional factors.
Start is the number of matches that must be played in a season before predictions are made. This allows time for the predictions to adjust for changes in players' strength from one season to the next.
Ex From and Ex To allows an exclusion period for predictions.
Longshot is the lowest forecast likelihood before excluding a prediction as a longshot. Enter 0% to allow all predictions.
Wiggle Room is the capacity for the system to modify the longshot.
Difference in Rating beyond which no predictions are selected
Knowledge is the level of book knowledge to alter future players' ratings if proved correct.
The system attempts to predict the 'TRUE' odds of a match if such a thing actually exists.
No attempt is made to necessarily select the most likely winner only value is of importance.
Feel free to download my spreadsheets from the OddsPredictor.Org.UK website which is of course completely free.   Thank you for your question but I expect I have bored everyone to death.   PS of the three selections posted to this thread in error 2 won so overall a small profit which is precisely what I am looking for.   3 matches is obviously a tiny sample so means nothing in itself but this season so far I have achieved a return of 13% from 50 selections so personally happy.    As stated in the very first post this was posted here in error and obviously no one here is interested so I will depart.  

OK but remember you asked.
The OddsPredictor System works by rating each player. Players were given a starting rating for January 2019 based upon 2018 world rankings. After each match the players have a rating gain or rating loss based upon a statistical table created from past seasons. The players' Ratings change after each Result and the Prediction of likely results can be obtained from the difference in rating between the players. For the OddsPredictor system to work a number of variables must be set in the spreadsheet. Defaults have been set but users can amend these variables and therefore affect the number of predictions and level of stakes. Here are a few of the variables that can be changed;
Stake is the maximum amount to risk per match. Typically recommended stakes will be 50% of this amount. This allows you to match OddsPredictor to suit your pocket. 
Rating Factor is the maximum rating change that can occur from one match to the next. So for example if the player's success is expected to be h% and the player wins then the team's rating will increase by (100-h)% of the R Factor.
Rating High above which the R Factor is halved
Rating Low below which the R Factor is doubled
Bonus is the amount added to the rating change for victories by 2 sets to nil.
Surface is the independence between different surface performances. 100% being fully independent
Risk Percentage represents the level of difference between the predicted odds and the bookmakers odds before a result is eligible for prediction. The higher this factor the fewer but more likely predictions are made.
High maximum margin of risk for determining predictions. Useful for excluding matches with exceptional factors.
Start is the number of matches that must be played in a season before predictions are made. This allows time for the predictions to adjust for changes in players' strength from one season to the next.
Ex From and Ex To allows an exclusion period for predictions.
Longshot is the lowest forecast likelihood before excluding a prediction as a longshot. Enter 0% to allow all predictions.
Wiggle Room is the capacity for the system to modify the longshot.
Difference in Rating beyond which no predictions are selected
Knowledge is the level of book knowledge to alter future players' ratings if proved correct.
The system attempts to predict the 'TRUE' odds of a match if such a thing actually exists.
No attempt is made to necessarily select the most likely winner only value is of importance.
Feel free to download my spreadsheets from the OddsPredictor.Org.UK website which is of course completely free.   Thank you for your question but I expect I have bored everyone to death.   PS of the three selections posted to this thread in error 2 won so overall a small profit which is precisely what I am looking for.   3 matches is obviously a tiny sample so means nothing in itself but this season so far I have achieved a return of 13% from 50 selections so personally happy.    As stated in the very first post this was posted here in error and obviously no one here is interested so I will depart.  

There is a difference between fair fixed odds events such as a roulette wheel and sporting events.
If 8 Reds come in a row on a fair wheel then we all know that this has no relevance to the next spin.
I mention fair as if not specified then eg if I toss a coin twenty times and it comes up heads everytime then there is a damn good chance it will be heads again.
However in sporting events that may not be the case for instance if Southampton let a lot of goals in when its cold and raining it may well be that the next time it is cold raining the probability that they will do so again may be higher than if it is a sunny day. But we may never know as there may well not be enough events to determine the validity of this hypothesis.
In fact I wonder whether there is such a thing as the 'True Odds' on a sporting event and searching for value odds as per my OddsPredictor is like searching for the holy grail. Sure if someone offers me odds of 10/1 against Liverpool beating Man City on Sunday I will take the bet as that is just an obvious error but what about if you are offered 2/1 is that value or not? Whatever you think and whatever the outcome you will never know whether it was a value bet or not.
Looking back at past data to test your value bets is also fraught with dangers of unintended influences on your choice and even paper trading has its problems as it is so easy to correct mistakes.
I try to use micro betting for my sandpit trials but even that has its problems.
What keeps me going is not whether I understand all the concepts but that my system keeps making me a profit albeit small. Maybe I have found the answer by luck.
Praise be to Fortuna.

Super League resumes this weekend 22/23 November 2019 for the final 3 match run in to the end of the season.
Just the one selection for this Sunday and a rather surprising one. Bejing Renhe to win at home against Jiangsu Suning.
This rather unlikely selection is rewarded with an almost 5/1 price tag. However funny results can occur when a team know they are doomed to relegation.

If I could add my two pennies worth I think the answer is never.
If your original stake was the correct level and affordable to begin with and you are winning don't change it.
Take your winnings and spend it on a luxury or something useful and carry on as before.
If you increase your stake you end up trivialising all your earlier work and trust me it usually ends in tears.

and for the record

and for the record

Week 8
*Every week i deal with over 130 bets made by the players of this competition, manually settled and entered onto a spreadsheet. Each week is copy and paste the odds and produce league tables, mostly accurate?. Oh and dont forget the £2000 per year prize money we give away.
In return all we ask is for the members to choose some teams, quote the odds and add their stake, its not asking too much is it??
Players have 5 days to perform this act, not 5 minutes on a Saturday.
On a brighter note, well done to Runadrum who landed a monster 40/1+ draw treble this week
* A lot of Monday bets still to sort out.
Overall Table

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

Leyton Orient v Port Vale (X) 3.50
Macclesfield v Colchester (X) 3.50
Morecambe v Northampton (X) 3.50
10 points treble please. Cheers.

I will of course continue but may not publish my tennis predictions here - it took a couple of seasons for me to be happy with my football model.

I am going to stick to my day job - see poor results below.

This Tennis predicting lark is tough - completed my very first Beta version for Tennis Predictor. Hope you don't mind me posting (one off) my selections for today 10th August to compare with yours.
My Excel Spreadshett is available for free download on my web site but only a Beta version - I am sure I will be making changes but with the football season starting  my focus will be elsewhwere.

This Tennis predicting lark is tough - completed my very first Beta version for Tennis Predictor. Hope you don't mind me posting (one off) my selections for today 10th August to compare with yours.
My Excel Spreadshett is available for free download on my web site but only a Beta version - I am sure I will be making changes but with the football season starting  my focus will be elsewhwere.

Almost ready to join in the discussion.
Only doing the womens' tournaments and that's too much really - don't know how you manage - maybe you are not from the post the other day.
Fed in all the results for this season into my predictor - copy and pasted nearly 3000 matches and 700 active players.
That was the easy part as all the games were in order - just had to differentiate between a few players with similar names and a bit of data checking and all was fine.
Now I am live and up to date the problems have started. Different time zones means results arrive all the time and after each round new fixtures are published - other than sorting out manually and posting manually I am struggling to find another way. Also tournaments are over lapping and for some of the challenger events such as Karlsruhe the uk bookmakers can be a bit tardy publishing their odds. All in all it is a massive mess and I am supposed to be on holiday playing chess in Torquay.
I must be mad but will try to publish some selections soon.

Almost ready to join in the discussion.
Only doing the womens' tournaments and that's too much really - don't know how you manage - maybe you are not from the post the other day.
Fed in all the results for this season into my predictor - copy and pasted nearly 3000 matches and 700 active players.
That was the easy part as all the games were in order - just had to differentiate between a few players with similar names and a bit of data checking and all was fine.
Now I am live and up to date the problems have started. Different time zones means results arrive all the time and after each round new fixtures are published - other than sorting out manually and posting manually I am struggling to find another way. Also tournaments are over lapping and for some of the challenger events such as Karlsruhe the uk bookmakers can be a bit tardy publishing their odds. All in all it is a massive mess and I am supposed to be on holiday playing chess in Torquay.
I must be mad but will try to publish some selections soon.

OK will follow with interest how these higher odds perform.
Currently working on my own database but having a bit of trouble with identifying players with similar names and dealing with retirees correctly without too much manual input.

The short answer is 'soft' though of course the system allows you to enter your own odds that are available to yourself at the time with your bokkmaker of choice. The odds included in the downloads are the ones available to myself at the time I updated the sheet. But who cares about the past the future is all that is important - the past can always be twisted.
I use UK bookmaker's that I place my small bets on. I don't mention names as I do not wish to advertise bookmakers who are all despicable in their own way.
On the 1st October 2018 all UK Bookmakers in what looked like a coordinated event increased their margins on football matches.
Such stealth price changes are certainly not customer friendly.
This was probably the introduction of a minimum betting margin cartel by the bookmakers following the government's restrictions of stakes on Fixed Odds Betting Terminals to £2 ? There has been comment by the Horse Racing fraternity that tight margins on sports events had previously been used as a loss leader to attract customers in so as to then fleece them on the fixed odds games.
Whatever the reason making a profit has certainly got more difficult. See table below.

The fixture lists are filling up nicely with the last of the English Leagues due to publish their fixtures this week and we are just waiting for Serie A and Serie B in the European Leagues that we cover. Otherwise our spreadsheets include all the match fixture dates.
The table below displays the variable settings that I have chosen as the default though of course the beauty of the system is that you can set your own variables and produce your very own unique predictions.

Mark me down as impressed. Cannot keep up with all your selections but the early ones that I have - have been great - see below.
So impressed in fact that I may try to emulate you and create my OddsPredictor for tennis. Though if its anything like my football one it will take three years to reach a workable state.

Final picks for today.