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OddsPredictor

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Posts posted by OddsPredictor

    Tennis Tips - February 3 - February 9

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    23 hours ago, darko08 said:

    Any reasons for these bets?

    Arantxa Rus did Final here in 2018. She has won against Ruse (4-6, 6-1, 6-1), Serban (6-1, 6-0) and Friedsam (6-3, 6-4). This last one coming as the underdog. She did well in the AO winning against Linette and did trouble Keys. Rus has a good W/L record on hard indoor courts (better than Vikhlyantseva). I don’t want to sound disrespectful but some reasons for these bets would be good.

    As I keep saying I realised I had posted in the wrong thread but could not delete the message or edit the file.

    Sorry I interfered with everyone's thoughts but I have to say I see little distinction between the above verbal analysis of a player's results by darko08 and the mathematical analysis of those same results quoted as a player's rating and compared to their opponents rating calculated from their results.

    Yes you may be friendly to each other.

    Tennis Tips - February 3 - February 9

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted · Edited by OddsPredictor

    OK but remember you asked.

    The OddsPredictor System works by rating each player. Players were given a starting rating for January 2019 based upon 2018 world rankings. After each match the players have a rating gain or rating loss based upon a statistical table created from past seasons. The players' Ratings change after each Result and the Prediction of likely results can be obtained from the difference in rating between the players.

    For the OddsPredictor system to work a number of variables must be set in the spreadsheet. Defaults have been set but users can amend these variables and therefore affect the number of predictions and level of stakes. Here are a few of the variables that can be changed;

    Stake is the maximum amount to risk per match. Typically recommended stakes will be 50% of this amount. This allows you to match OddsPredictor to suit your pocket. 

    Rating Factor is the maximum rating change that can occur from one match to the next. So for example if the player's success is expected to be h% and the player wins then the team's rating will increase by (100-h)% of the R Factor.

    Rating High above which the R Factor is halved

    Rating Low below which the R Factor is doubled

    Bonus is the amount added to the rating change for victories by 2 sets to nil.

    Surface is the independence between different surface performances. 100% being fully independent

    Risk Percentage represents the level of difference between the predicted odds and the bookmakers odds before a result is eligible for prediction. The higher this factor the fewer but more likely predictions are made.

    High maximum margin of risk for determining predictions. Useful for excluding matches with exceptional factors.

    Start is the number of matches that must be played in a season before predictions are made. This allows time for the predictions to adjust for changes in players' strength from one season to the next.

    Ex From and Ex To allows an exclusion period for predictions.

    Longshot is the lowest forecast likelihood before excluding a prediction as a longshot. Enter 0% to allow all predictions.

    Wiggle Room is the capacity for the system to modify the longshot.

    Difference in Rating beyond which no predictions are selected

    Knowledge is the level of book knowledge to alter future players' ratings if proved correct.

    The system attempts to predict the 'TRUE' odds of a match if such a thing actually exists.

    No attempt is made to necessarily select the most likely winner only value is of importance.

    Feel free to download my spreadsheets from the OddsPredictor.Org.UK website which is of course completely free.
     
    Thank you for your question but I expect I have bored everyone to death.
     
    PS of the three selections posted to this thread in error 2 won so overall a small profit which is precisely what I am looking for.
     
    3 matches is obviously a tiny sample so means nothing in itself but this season so far I have achieved a return of 13% from 50 selections so personally happy. 
     
    As stated in the very first post this was posted here in error and obviously no one here is interested so I will depart.

     

    China Super League Predictions 2019

    in Chinese Football Predictions

    Posted · Edited by OddsPredictor

    Table below shows a small loss for the predictions since posting on Punters Lounge. A final run of 5 losses sealed it.

    Luckily for me the overall result for the full season was positive but sorry no consolation if you all.

    I never predict the last two games of any league season as some very strange 'schools out for summer' results can occur.

    Hope to return for a full season of predictions in 2020. Be seeing you.

    china191128.jpg

    Gambler'fallacy and value in football

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    There is a difference between fair fixed odds events such as a roulette wheel and sporting events.

    If 8 Reds come in a row on a fair wheel then we all know that this has no relevance to the next spin.

    I mention fair as if not specified then eg if I toss a coin twenty times and it comes up heads everytime then there is a damn good chance it will be heads again.

    However in sporting events that may not be the case for instance if Southampton let a lot of goals in when its cold and raining it may well be that the next time it is cold raining the probability that they will do so again may be higher than if it is a sunny day. But we may never know as there may well not be enough events to determine the validity of this hypothesis.

    In fact I wonder whether there is such a thing as the 'True Odds' on a sporting event and searching for value odds as per my OddsPredictor is like searching for the holy grail. Sure if someone offers me odds of 10/1 against Liverpool beating Man City on Sunday I will take the bet as that is just an obvious error but what about if you are offered 2/1 is that value or not? Whatever you think and whatever the outcome you will never know whether it was a value bet or not.

    Looking back at past data to test your value bets is also fraught with dangers of unintended influences on your choice and even paper trading has its problems as it is so easy to correct mistakes.

    I try to use micro betting for my sandpit trials but even that has its problems.

    What keeps me going is not whether I understand all the concepts but that my system keeps making me a profit albeit small. Maybe I have found the answer by luck.

    Praise be to Fortuna.

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