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Interesting theory. I'd take the lower value of Spain at 5/1 to win group B, but its a tough group with Germany being the favorites, and China being a bit of a wild card. It's hard to see France or USA not winning it all but I guess thats the joy of the World Cup.
Does anyone know of any books with consistent Fighting Game Community (StreetFighter, MK11, Tekken, Smash, GG, etc) betting? Seems like it should be way easier for them to price than the team games. And the games are so short you are more likely to bet on lots of matches which spread out the books risk.