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The Equaliser

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  1. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Zilzalian in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    Although i agree with the comments about the weather i do think you have to be careful of missing out on winners, sometimes you just have to take it on the chin, there is nothing worse than picking a few winners only to "not bother" to have a bet because of the weather/ground.
  2. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Hopefully you backed it each way; something I seldom do as this is a seperate bet imo and I struggle to find the benefit of it.  I know that Rupert seems to be OK with ew bets
     
  3. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Wanderlust in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    I use Accuweather and have had it on my computer screen since lunchtime, my time ( around 4hrs ago)
    Ascot has only had rain in the last hour ( from around 8am) and it has now moved away, according to the radar.
    So with that little bit overnight, unless there is a deluge in the next few hours, the ground should be about perfect.
  4. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to The Brigadier in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    Only 2.3 mm of rain overnight but more showers forecast throughout the day. Seems like they've got off lightly !
  5. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to calva decoy in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    0.28mm of rain last night but between 12 & 20mm forecast today , think I'll try for horses on good rather than fast or soft today , a gamble on a gamble !
  6. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to cannotbebeat in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    5.00 Royal Ascot Raadobarg 7/1
    Good luck all CNBB.
  7. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to calva decoy in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    Some very wise words regarding forecast & ground .
    I'll be dubious as to what the clerk of the course says if there is a deluge of rain with it being the showpiece event of the year the fewer non runners the better !
  8. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to The Brigadier in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    Day Three of Royal Ascot and its very tricky to predict what the ground is likely to be with a band of thunderstorms coming up from the South. So a word of caution regarding punting and it maybe worth waiting till the morning to see how the ground lies before departing with any of our hard earned. Anyway here’s my initial thoughts.
     
    Ascot 230
    16 go to post for the Norfolk Stakes run over 5F for 2 year olds. Once again as with all the juvenile races this week we have the added puzzle of not one but two Wesley Ward youngsters. Lucci and Nakatomi are both winners of one on firm ground and on a dirt surface respectively. One may well win but from a punting aspect I’m happy to ignore and with the two collectively taking a fair chunk out of the market I’m looking for some value elsewhere. Aidan O’Brien’s Cadamosto is my idea of the winner with Ryan Moore in the saddle. He was impressive when winning at Dundalk on his debut in April and staggeringly has been pulled out on the day of the race four times since for various reasons (twice because of soft ground). If the rain did come in buckets then I would be against both the American horses and Cadamosto and would probably take a chance with soft ground Ascot winner Go Bears Go. A hard race to get a handle on without knowing how much rain will fall on the Berkshire course. 
    On good ground CADAMOSTO 1 point each way @ 11/2 Bet 365 1/5th 1234
    On soft ground GO BEARS GO 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet 365 1/5th 1234
     
    Ascot 305
    The ground is crucial once again here for the 10F Hampton Court Stakes. I would be very strong on William Haggas’s Mohaafeth who missed the Derby on fast ground but if the forecast is right they may well be unlucky again. On fast ground he would be worth a good bet. If the ground turns then the penalised One Ruler who has plenty of smart juvenile form on soft ground to his name and comes here on the back of 6th’s in the 2000 Guineas and Derby could be the answer. This is one race where the ground is crucial. 
    MOHAAFETH 3 points win @ 15/8 William Hill  (no bet if ground good to soft or worse)
     
    Ascot 340
    The Ascot Oaks - the Ribblesdale Stakes over 12F has a field of 13 with the Epsom Oaks form represented by Aidan O’Brien’s Divinely who was 3rd and Dubai Fountain who was way down the field in 12th. Eshaada is a very interesting runner who needed her comeback run but still won at Newbury from Gloria Mundi and is suited by soft ground so the more rain that falls the better for her. She’ll improve for the step up as well and looks to my eyes to have a big chance. Sir Michael Stoute’s runner Noon Star’s 2nd spot in the Musidora looked disappointing at the time but to run the subsequent runaway Oaks winner Snowfall to  3 3/4L was no mean feat and she must go well here stepping up in trip having missed Epsom with a slight issue. Hard to split Eshaada and Noon Star with preference just for the latter. 
    NOON STAR 3 points win @ 5/2 Bet365
     
    Ascot 415
    The 2m 4F Ascot Gold Cup has been won the last three years by the superstar stayer of John Gosden’s Stradivarius and he’s out here to equal Yeats record of four Ascot Gold Cups between 2006-2009. He’s won 6 of his 9 starts at the track with arguably his best ever effort coming last year on soft ground when showing an amazing turn of foot for a stayer. Frankie Dettori knows him in and out and don’t be surprised if he’s coltish before proceedings - that’s just him. I hope he wins and I also think he will win. Any rain will be in favour of Trueshan who was so impressive here over 2 miles on Champions Day last Autumn but he needs Autumn soft rather than Summer soft! Subjectivist was last seen winning the Dubai Gold Cup in March but he’s never raced beyond 2 miles though should stay this extreme trip. It promises to be one of the races of the meeting and I’m with Stradivarius. 
    STRADIVARIUS  4 points win @ 11/10 Bet365
     
    Ascot 5.00
    30 go to post over the straight mile for this years Britannia Handicap and as always it looks wide open. I can pass on a good word for the Sir Mark Prescott trained Royal Pleasure but if I had a choice I would want to be with the high numbers and he’s berthed in stall 3. Mithras looks to have a very solid chance exiting from stall 15. He won at Newbury prior to being outclassed in the Heron Stakes at Sandown. Raadobarg will appreciate any rain and despite a 11lb rise for Haydock can be involved in the shake up also. They would be my two against the field with slight preference for the Roger Varian trained Raadobarg in the hope the rain gets into the ground from a nice draw of 24. 
    RAADOBARG 1.5 point each way @ 15/2 Bet365 ¼ 1234
     
    Ascot 5.35
    A maximum turn out of 19 for the King George V handicap. Top weight Sir Lamorak is a very interesting runner of Aidan O’Brien’s who was touted as a Derby contender earlier in the season. Stepping up in trip will surely suit and can be a major player. There are many other progressive three year olds that will appreciate the longer trip including Siskany of Gidolphin’s. John Gosden is represented by handicap debutants  First Light and Marshall Plan with preference for the former ridden by Frankie Dettori. Roger Varian saddles handicap debutant Nagano who’s a winner on good to soft so won’t mind the conditions. The draw is important here with those drawn out wide up against it from the word go and the selection is First Light who’s nicely berthed in stall 7 and won his maiden on soft ground by 12L so won’t mind if the ground eases. 
    FIRST LIGHT 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 123456
     
    Ascot 6.10
    The 7F Buckingham Palace Handicap was resurrected last season following a 6 year break and is a typically hard handicap to solve. Boardman is a horse I want on my side and he won’t mind the ground softening up a bit although he could of been better drawn than stall 9 but he has to be on my staking plan. Aldaary was given too much to do at Goodwood from Jim Crowley and if the ground was to ease considerably he would have to be a major player here. He’s tongue tied for the first time here and has winning course form. The other horse I like is the Roger Varian trained Lord Campari who is making his handicap debut, is lightly raced and was last seen when running 6th in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. He’s got form on slow ground and ticks all the boxes.  
    ALDAARY 1.5 points each way @   6/1 Betfred 1/5th 123456
    LORD CAMPARI 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 ¼ 12345
     
  9. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Hopefully you backed it each way; something I seldom do as this is a seperate bet imo and I struggle to find the benefit of it.  I know that Rupert seems to be OK with ew bets
     
  10. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    RESULTS UPDATE
    Not even a whiff of a winner for me at Royal Ascot.  Too Shy Shy got second at 25/1 with Mark Crehan aboard which would have got me out of trouble had it won.  Ben Curtis  did get a treble at Hamilton but I'm not sure that I would have put the first three rides in a Trixie
    A another straight loss today, this time £24.35.  This means that my new balance is £840.93 (Bank £1056.22); over £200 down on my opening balance.  
    Four flat meetings in the UK tomorrow; we will have to wait until tomorrow to find out about any significant changes to the going at the turf meetings.  Whatever it is I can't do any worse 🙃  
     
     
  11. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to ipswich45 in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Uttoxeter did track and trace via online booking forms so nothing actually taken on the day apart from barcode scan on the ticket, masks only had to be worn inside and most on course bookmakers were offering both cash and card payments  but the food vendors and bars were card only 
  12. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    I think I'll wait until things return to normal before I go back to the races, all this track and trace nonsense and wearing masks even makes going to the pub seem like a chore rather than a pleasure. Now all the vulnerable are vaccinated it's about time we were allowed our freedom back.
  13. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to ipswich45 in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    must praise Uttoxeter today   myself and Trainmad091 went today and very quick entry no queuing system at all,  plenty of security and course staff around the main areas dealing with social distancing and indoor face coverings    
  14. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to cannotbebeat in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    9.00 Ripon Morty 3/1
    Good luck all CNBB.
  15. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    A profit of 9.2 points on the day mainly due to Real World's success in the Hunt Cup.
  16. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    I was hoping to find a Trixie at the other meetings today but could not see anything strong enough.  Ben Curtis has a lot of rides at Hamilton but there are too many ifs and buts about his shorter priced selections for my liking.  I have had a bet on some outsiders listed below and that's me done for today.  I will put my feet up and watch Ascot later 🙂
    4.25 Ham Zenzero (BC) £3 win at 7.8 = £19.99 if it wins
    7.0 Rip Mystery Show (PM) £2 win at 10/1
    9.00 Rip Catherine's Girl (PH) £1.15 win at 18/1 (poss return £21.85)
    8.23 Chelms Too Shy Shy ((MC5) £2 win at 18.10 = £33.52
    8.53 Chelms Liklion (LC7 not impressive, but horse could be) £2 win at 11.5 (um 9.6)
    This brings poss total stakes to £24.35 (not bad for a full day's racing)
     
     
     
     
     
  17. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Quite a move on Kaboo in the 5:35 Ascot (50/1 into 6/1), unraced so not much to go on! But I've followed the money with a small bet at 6/1.
  18. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to Tumbleweed King in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    2-30 Royal Ascot
    Choux (E/W) was subject of a monumental gamble when making her debut at Thirsk last month. She was backed all the way in from 40's into 100/30 and won as she liked. Someone clearly knew she was ahead of her game and no surprise if she takes another significant steop forward here. David Evans may not be the most fashionable of trainers, but he can get them to run up sequences and this daughter of Exceed And Excel will love the lightning quick ground. Shane Kelly retains the ride having won on her last time and she is open to any amount of improvement. She looks a decent each way contender.
    3-05 Royal Ascot
    Kemari (E/W) showed significant improvement from his debut to win comfortably at Yarmouth last time in a quick time. Quick into his stride, he inflicted a six length defeat onto Fantasising, who was always playing catch-up having missed the break. Still only lightly raced compared to a few of these, but there is undoubtledly further improvement to come. Will Buick is back on board the son of Dubawi and the pair can go close in a field that may not be the strongest.
    3-40 Royal Ascot
    Lavender's Blue (E/W) has only half a length to find with Lady Bowthorpe based on their most recent encounter at Newmarket last month in the Dahlia Stakes. First time cheekpieces may offer some encouragement to her followers that she can narrow or even reverse that defecit. She absolutely loves to hear her hooves rattle the ground as she proved when winning at Sandown last summer under Jim Crowley, who is on board yet again this afternoon. The slight step back to a mile is certainly in her favour and this five-year-old daughter of Sea The Stars can make an impact.
    4-20 Royal Ascot
    Love went without defeat last season and this immaculately bred daughter of Galileo looks hard to oppose. The 1000 Guineas heroine is a veteran of these group one races now and also scored convincing victories at Epsom and York last season. She has gone well fresh in the past and Ryan Moore bids to to record his fifth win on her today. She is versatile trip wise and has won her races from a mile right up to a mile and a half. Aidan O'Brien is likley to have her cherry ripe and she can obliterate the opposition.
    5-00 Royal Ascot
    Trais Fluors (E/W) has taken his time to find his feet since joining Mick Channon from Kevin Condon, but he did the job nicely when winning for the first time in two years at Sandown just last Saturday. All of his best work came in the closing stages and Silvestre De Sousa readily assumed command on him when the gaps came. This marks a quick turnaround for the seven-year-old, but he is clearly showing no ill effects of that recent spin. He has what could be a useful draw in stall 28 and will be dangerous to all if in the same vein of form.
    5-35 Royal Ascot
    Armor (E/W) looks set to improve again despite winning on debut for Richard Hannon and Ryan Moore at Doncaster last time. He always travelled strongly in the four-runner affair and should have learned plenty for the experience. Try as they might, his rivals could not cope with his turn of foot in the closing stages and he ran out a ready winner. Being a son of No Nay Never, he ought to relish this faster surface and Pat Dobbs should get a good tune out of him.
    6-10 Royal Ascot
    Declared Interest (E/W) may have only won a class four race at Leicester last day, but that came on the back of a 214 day absence. This lightly raced four-year-old filly has obviously improved over the winter and spring and now bids to record her third win on the bounce. She has stamina in abundance having won over as far as a mile and a quarter, so expect plenty of use to be made of her. A big step up in class, but she is worth a crack at it and should give a bold account.
     
  19. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Tedthewolf in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    HUNT CUP
    I really think we ain't seen the best of REAL WORLD 25/1 e/w 8places not bog  has been runing on the dirt in Dubia over longer than todays trip runs off a fair looking mark for first turf run   very decent claimer takes 3lb off  goes in  blinkers frist time and also trying a mile for the first time  could be a real dark horse here and may be a horse worth following i think the other world horse (eastern)  also owned by godolphin could allso go well at a big price  but my 2nd selection is  Irish trained BOWERMAN 66/1 e/w  8places not bog last years Irish liincoln winner looks a massive price to hard to resist at that price for 8 places.
  20. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Ironjoe in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Ascot 
    2.30 nymphadora 10/1 1pt ew and jazzy princess 100/1 1pt ew (7 places)
    3.05 arturo toscanini 12/1 1pt ew (5 places)
    3.40 agincourt 16/1 1pt ew (4 places)
    5. Layfayette 20/1 1pt ew and bell rock 33/1 1pt ew (8 places)
    5.35 kaboo 6/1 1pt win
    6.10  dreamloper 4/1 2pt win
    All skybet so no BOG 
    Good luck 🤙 
  21. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Flat selection
    Ripon 8.30
    MAYWAKE 13/8
  22. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to black rabbit in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Escobar   5 00 ascot  1/2 pt win  @  50/1 betfair 
    brunch    5 00 ascot  1/2  pt  win  @ 17/1  betfair   taken yesterday
    Layfayette   5 00 Ascot  1/2 pt win  @  26/1  betfair 
    Lola Showgirl   6 10  ascot   1/2 pt win  @  14/1  betfair 
     
    P/L  =   +  93 pts          bit unlucky recently     2nd  @   50/1    and  2nd @  25/1    in last couple weeks  
    good luck to all 
  23. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Bathtime For Rupert in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:
    2.30 Ascot - Mas Poder @ 18/1
    Clearly highly thought of having made her debut in a listed race at York, up against some smart fillies with experience and winning form. She was a huge eyecatcher that day, showing good speed throughout and whilst still being inexperienced, knuckled down well late on to not be beaten far. I thought she was the one to take out of the race and with natural improvement for the outing, looks a big price here.
    3.05 Ascot - Arturo Toscanini @ 12/1
    Weak in the market but will still chance the O'Brien second string here. He's run two good races out of three but generally looks pretty slow over 1m2f - staying on having been outpaced for 2nd when last seen in a decent race over in Ireland. Looks very much like he'll come into his own over further (full sibling is a 2 mile winner) and whilst he has to prove himself on quicker ground (flop at Newmarket can't solely be put down to that), I think he's overpriced here.
    3.40 Ascot - Champers Elysees @ 17/2
    Has to bounce back from a low key start to this season but she should be spot on fitness wise now and if returning to the form of last season, she'd have a favourite's chance here. She clearly goes on deep ground but she's got an excellent turn of foot and I just wonder if she doesn't want a slog like she had last time out. This quicker ground and less emphasis on stamina could just suit and I'll chance her based on that.
    4.20 Ascot - Sangarius @ 16/1
    Clearly has a bit to find and things need to drop right for him but he's definitely smart on his day. I think he'll be ridden close to the pace here in a small field and does have the speed to quicken from the front, with his best career performance coming at this track. Not sure he was fully wound up at Chester when behind Armory and floundered having set a quick pace on soft ground at Sandown last time. Was picked up by Euchen Glen there but went like the winner and that horse ran really well yesterday on unsuitable ground so the form looks okay. Could be a bit of a funny race with an uncertain gallop and I just think this horse is worth a small go at the price.
    5.00 Ascot - Irish Admiral @ 16/1 and Ouzo @ 50/1
    Concerned about the draw for Irish Admiral but I think he's sure to win a good race soon - was caught out of his ground at Epsom last time and couldn't ever really get involved but I'm happy to forgive him that considering the promise he showed at York the time before. Travelled all over them over 1m2f that day and although not finding as much as it looked like he might, looked a good horse and the return to a mile on quick ground today should suit. 
    I wouldn't be surprised if high draws dominated, however, and I'm going to give Ouzo a chance each-way from under the stands rail. I hope he returns to front-running tactics here after a no-show when last seen and he's pretty consistent in this sort of race without winning and could just go well at a huge price.
    5.35 Ascot - Spring is Sprung @ 20/1
    The Wesley Ward runner may again prove too speedy but the royal runner looks overpriced to me having won well at Windsor last time with a couple of horses in behind going on to run big races since. This one is a half sibling to Collinsbay and Kings Lynn so ought to be a smart sprinter in time and looks like an improving sort who will come on again for its effort when last seen. 20/1 looks a big each-way price.
    6.10 Ascot - Dalanijujo @ 28/1
    Wide open race which looks to have plenty of pace in it so I expect them to go a good gallop here and that could bring the best out of Mick Channon's runner who has been operating at a lower level but is a free-going sort who looks best over a stiff mile with a strong pace to run off. Has to step up on its latest win but the handicap mark isn't climbing out of reach and at a price I can see it going well.
  24. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Zilzalian in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Bit of an observation from this quarter-Audarya a horse that won at the breeders cup, not only that but if you watch the french race that Tarnawa (one of this years Arc favs) won, you will notice Audarya was arguably unlucky. but the point i am making is that Audarya has been 14/1 all week is now 9/1 even with the withdrawal of lord north. win lose or draw that was/is some price.
  25. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to roger2256 in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    June +17 
    1 pt level stakes win only 
    15.05 Ruling 14/1 
    Prices as of now b365 
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