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The Equaliser

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  1. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to calva decoy in Racing Chat - Friday 18th June   
    Ascot races Twitter 3 minutes ago 
    " The going is now soft " 
    Think Suesa in the 3.40 will be hard to beat.
  2. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Wanderlust in Racing Chat - Friday 18th June   
    Since 3am UK time (maybe before) it has been non stop rain at Ascot, with no sign of it relenting.
    There has to be a strong chance of soft ground and unfortunately a slew of non runners.
    Backing soft ground horses now means you will no doubt get a better price, but then that will be offset by Rule 4s with the doubtless non runners
  3. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Wanderlust in Racing Chat - Friday 18th June   
    Looks like the ground at Ascot will be different today.
    I have been watching the radar map on Accuweather. Its been raining non stop since 3am UK time 
    The radar only shows present and about 90 minutes ahead. According to the radar the rain will be non stop until at least 7am.
    Same for Goodwood and Newmarket. 
    Redcar has been dry.
  4. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Friday 18th June   
    Flat selection
    Goodwood 8.25
    THOUSAND OAKS 7/4
  5. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to cannotbebeat in Racing Chat - Friday 18th June   
    Redcar
    1.30 Tiger Beetle 15/8
    3.15 Get Funky 3/1
    4.25 Lilikoi 5/1
    4.55 Albegone 5/2
    Royal Ascot
    3.05 Tasman Bay 14/1
    Goodwood
    5.40 Spirit Warning 4/1
    Good luck all CNBB.
  6. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Zilzalian in Racing Chat - Friday 18th June   
    I really fancy lucid dreamer but like you say the track is a nightmare, personally i wish they would leave well alone and stop the watering, if its firm so be it, if its got a good covering of grass would be fine but now if it chucks it down it will be heavier than it should be. We have seen races this week where half the field have had no chance.
  7. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Friday 18th June   
    Day 4 of Royal ascot and having missed the majority of the rain the ground was riding good to firm today but once again we have the threat of overnight thunderstorms so there is the realistic possibility of the ground changing overnight. Here my thoughts on the 7 races.
     
    Ascot 2.30
    The 6F Albany Stakes for 2yo fillies kicks off Day 4 with the possibilty of some dig in the ground. Flotus looked particularly smart when hosing up at Goodwood on her debut 27 days ago. The ground that evening was soft and with Dettori booked must go well for the Crisford’s. She looks the main play to me here although it may also be worth a small investment in the George Boughey trained Cachet who won by 5L on her debut at Newmarket in the style of a decent juvenile. Hello You is the other filly here who was visually impressive on her debut all be it it on the all weather at Wolverhampton. Throw in a well bred winner of Aidan O’Briens in Prettiest and we have some race. Flotus is my main pick with a saver on Cachet. 
    FLOTUS 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365         
    CACHET 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234
     
    Ascot 3.05
    A disappointing turn out for this year’s renewal of The King Edward Vll Stakes with only 8 going to post and with the top rated only 108 the standard is not set too high. The one to beat has to be William Haggas’s Alenquer who was last seen winning the Sandown Classic Trial by 1/2L in April from none other than this year’s Derby winner Adayar with Yibir who re-opposes here only a neck away in third. He’s a winner in soft ground so will handle any juice in the ground and can take this. Yibir may be the one to chase him home having been gelded since last seen. Title is a good ground Yarmouth maiden winner who will need to step up to take this whilst Aidan O’Brien saddles The Mediterranean who was runner up in a listed contest last time at Leopardstown. 
    ALENQUER 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365
     
    Ascot 3.40
    A bumper field of 21 go to post for the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup over 6F for three year olds. A case can be made for plenty with the French raider Suesa coming here unbeaten in 4 outings in her native country on soft ground so the softer the conditions the better for her. Whether stall 8 is a good draw or not is debatable. Campanelle is over from America for Wesley Ward and is 3 from 3 over sprint trips having failed to stay a mile in last season’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, with Dettori in place she can be a big runner. Dragon Symbol is a horse I have a lot of time for and is another with a chance.  My best outsider is the Ken Condon trained Miss Amulet who had some smart juvenile spring form but flopped on her re-appearance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she may not have stayed, back in trip here she looks fair ew value. A wide open contest but I’m going to stick with last year’s form of Campanelle and give Wesley Ward his first 6F winner at the Royal meeting with a small saver on Miss Amulet. 
    CAMPANELLE 2 points win@  9/2 Bet365
    MISS AMULET ½ point each way @ 25/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345 
     
    Ascot 4.20
    The Group 1 Coronation Stakes is run over 1m for 3 year old fillies and has attracted a field of 13 runners. Aidan O’Brien saddles two, his Irish 1000 Guineas winner Empress Josephine and English 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth. The latter is the pick of Ryan Moore and followed up her 1000 win by finishing runner up in the French version a fortnight later. She’s the form horse here and the one they all have to beat. Alcohol Free raced on the slower part of the track in the English 1000 Guineas and did well to get to within 2L of Mother Earth and it wouldn’t be a shock to see her get closer although any further rain probably wouldn’t suit her. An interesting runner is the Sir Michael Stoute runner Potapova who will need to step up considerably on her Redcar win and is unproven  on slow ground, she is very exciting mind. The German 1000 Guineas winner Novemba is also of interest as she made all to win comfortably by 7L and although this will be tougher comes here as the highest rated horse in the race and also top on Timeform ratings. She’s drawn still 1 and will surely go forward from there and attempt to make all.  
    MOTHER PEARL 3 points win @ 4/1 Paddy Power
     
    Ascot 5.00
    A maximum field of 30 fillies will hurtle down the straight mile here in the Sandringham Handicap which looks as hard a handicap as I’ve seen all week. Bets should really be kept a minimum here with my shortlist comprising of top weight Friendly of Aidan O’Briens who ran 6th in the Irish 1000 Guineas although his mark of 102 seems rather high. Lucid Dreamer of Roger Charlton’s making his handicap debut off of 90 which looks a workable mark though a stall position of 9 doesn’t excite and Belief a lightly raced Cheveley Park Stud owned filly trained by William Haggas and Star Of Emaraaty who maybe well drawn in stall 2 on the far side and was last seen running 9th in the 1000 Guineas. A real head scratcher with stakes split small ew on Lucid Dreamer and Star Of Emaraaty. 
    LUCID DREAMER ½ point each way @ 22/1William Hill 1/5th 123456
    STAR OF EMARAATY ½ point each way 33/1William Hill 1/5th 123456
     
    Ascot 5.35
    Another maximum field of 19 go to post for the 1m 4F Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap run on the round course. The two current favourites Aaddeey and Quickthorn come here in fine form having won impressively last time but both have been re-assessed to the  tune of 13lb. I’m a fan of the former who is trained by the Crisford’s and he should run a big race. Last year’s winner Scarlet Dragon is back for another go from a 4lb higher mark and will appreciate any easing of the ground whilst Ryan Moore is on the same stables Tritonic who we know from his winter hurdling exploits. Yet again a tough handicap but I’ll stick with Aaddeey who is still improving and won’t mind slowish ground. 
    AADDEEY 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet365 ¼ 1234
     
    Ascot  6.10
    The final race of the day is one of the newest handicaps on the card, the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes Handicap. A 5F handicap for three year olds only won last year by the 6/4 fav Art Power. Looking at the races over the minimum trip so far this week it appears that either very high or very low seems the place to be. Warrior Brave is 7lb well in for his 2nd to Atalis Bay at Sandown last weekend and looks sure to run well for The Horsewatchers in first time blinkers. He’s one of best handicapped horses in the field though has a middle draw. Significantly looks an interesting runner from stall 24. Karl Burke’s speedster has bumped into two potential Group horses on his last two starts in Creative Force and Dragon Symbol, has form on all types of ground and can run well. Roger Varian’s Boomshalaa makes his handicap debut winning twice at 6F and is dropping back a furlong here and is well fancied Mo Celina is looking for his 6th win on the spin and he’s one who would appreciate any more rain. A competitive race but I will split my stakes between Significantly and Warrior Brave with slight preference for the former as he appears to be better drawn. 
    SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5th 12345
    WARRIOR BRAVE ½ point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
     
     
     
  8. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Each way can be a good bet but it all depends on the number of runners and the "shape" of the odds. With 16 runner handicaps each way is often the best way to bet.
  9. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from gbettle in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    RESULTS UPDATE
    Another luckless day for me.  I had 3 bets that didn't get matched, including Secret Protector which would have yielded £20.58.  This means a loss of £19.50 on the day.  My new balance is £821.43 (Bank £1056.22).
    Four UK flat meetings again tomorrow with another dose of Ascot.  I think that I will halve my rough figure of around £20 as it would seem that any horse seems to be able to win at these big festivals.  I may try one £1 Trixie = £4 and just put £1 singles bets on others.  I can still have fun but at half the cost.  It isn't worth putting a lot of money on in these races.  There is too much competition for owners and trainers trying to get a bit extra out of their horses.
     
     
  10. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to azzybear in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    horse fly 8.40
  11. Sad
    The Equaliser reacted to The Brigadier in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    A loss of 10.07 points on the day. Fridays thoughts just posted.
  12. Sad
    The Equaliser reacted to fd1972uk in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    Don't think Frankie could've done any worse a job today in the Gold Cup, as said on radio a Horror Show of a ride. 
    Thought that was my banker on my treble, lol. 
  13. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Zilzalian in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    wont complain at not getting the f/c the winner will do
  14. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to black rabbit in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    Liffey  River   5  00 asc    1/2 pt win  @ 26/1 betfair 
    Bilsa   6  10 asc    1/2  pt  win   @  21/1    betfair
    ad  infinitum  3 40  asc   1/2 pt winn @ 22/1  betfair
     
    P/L   +  99 pt
     
  15. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Tedthewolf in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    Lucky last at Ascot . So very hard  so just small e/w bet on  4 big outsiders  for me MAGICAL WISH 80/1 6places  bog TOTAL COMITMENT 50/1 7places not bog DUBIA MIRAGE 40/1 7places not bog  ON THE WARPATH 40/1 6places bog if i could only choose one horse in the race it would be Dubia Mirage
  16. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Ironjoe in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    Ascot
    2.30 project dante 7/1 2pt win
    3.40 ad infinitum 16/1 1pt ew (5 places)
    5. Aerion power 12/1 1pt ew (4)
    5.35 kondo isami 12/1 1.5pts ew (6)
    4.10 boardman 7/1 2pt win
    Good luck 🤙 
  17. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    Flat selection
    Ascot 4.15
    Stradivarius 5/4
  18. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to Zilzalian in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    After yesterdays 158/1 f/c (296/1 exacta) todays speed figures for the Norfolk stakes are as follows, again i will stipulate you will have to take a view on the Ward runners because they don't equate very well although Lucci appears to be pretty quick.
    1 Perfect Power  127       12/1
    2 Cadamosto     126 (aw) 9/2
    3 Navello            125         25/1
     
    good luck
  19. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Tumbleweed King in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    2-30 Royal Ascot
    Nakatomi (E/W) was blinkered when winning on debut at Keeneland in the sloppy conditions over four and a half furlongs. This Qatar racing owned gelding has the assistance of Oisin Murphy in the saddle this afternoon and it is highly likely that the pair will try and assume command from the get-go. He certainly knew his job when seeing off his ten rivals last time, inflicting a two length defeat on better fancied stablemate Happy Soul. He now has the assistance of a tongue tie as well as the blinkers. Wesley Ward has won this race twice in the past and looks sure to make a bold attempt to win another.
    3-05 Royal Ascot
    One Ruler can go close here not having enjoyed the best of fortunes in the 2000 Guineas or the Derby. This step back in trip is expected to suit him better and if returning to the promise he showed last year, he should prove a tough nut to crack. He won the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket when beating Van Gogh and Dhababi last October before finishing second to subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas hero Mac Swiney in the Group One Futurity Stakes at Doncaster. If putting his best foot forward under Will Buick, he is shortlist material.
    3-40 Royal Ascot
    John Gosden has absolutely farmed this race in recent seasons so he must hold Gloria Mundi (E/W) in high regard to send her here. A winner on debut in a Newbury maiden, she went down all guns blazing when second to the re-opposing Eshaada at the same track last month. This daughter of Galileo is bred to get every yard of this trip and they are fancied to turn the tables on Eshaada over this extra furlong. They have the beating of Aristia and Twisted Reality and can confirm that here to give Frankie Dettori a decent chance of third straight win in this race.
    4-15 Royal Ascot
    Serpentine (E/W) is an intriguing runner having been supplemented for the race by connections. Last year’s Derby hero was very much on the comeback trail when well beaten in the Tattersalls Gold Cup in Ireland just last month. The trip was clearly too short for him and it is of significant note that they have moved him up dramatically in trip. If he takes to this new marathon trip, he would certainly have the beating of many of these. Ryan Moore will have to put him to sleep at the back of the pack and make his move at just the right time.
    5-00 Royal Ascot
    Royal Pleasure (E/W) ought to enjoy the frenetic pace set by a few of his rivals in this cavalry charge. He was not seen to best effect when runner up in a moderately run affair at Kempton last time over seven furlongs. The slight step up to a mile is expected to suit and Sir Mark Prescott has his yard in decent form. This will be his turf debut and he does have stall three to contend with here. He remains capable of better and shouldn’t be too far away in this heritage handicap.
    5-35 Royal Ascot
    Kondo Isami (E/W) has been a model of consistency for Mark Johnston and has been somewhat unfortunate not to have won more than the two races he has already secured at York and Chelmsford. He was headed close home when beaten by Dancing King at Doncaster last day and no doubt a return to this trip will be more to his liking. The yard have taken this prize six times since 1995, so it’s a race they clearly target. Ben Curtis takes over from PJ McDonald in the saddle and they command respect.
    6-10 Royal Ascot
    Bedouins Story (E/W) loves it when there is a bit of give in the ground and the little bit of rain that came overnight will suit him. He is talented handicapper who has proven that time and time again, most recently in January when winning a sixteen runner affair out in Meydan. He has also been placed in Group Three company in the recent past and has gone well after similar breaks in the past. Seven furlongs brings out the best in him and with Frankie Dettori on board, the pair command respect.
  20. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    My Royal Ascot selections today.  Some may not get matched at my requested prices but I'm not bothered
    2.30 Cadamosto (RM) £3.50 win at 7.4 = £21.95 if it wins
    3.05 Secret Protector £4 3TBP at 6.2 (um 5.5).  Looks like a good place bet.
    3.40 Dubai Fountain £2.20 win at 10.5 (um 7.6, was 9.4 so probably won't get matched now)
    4.15 Spanish Missiom (WB) £2 win 16 = £29.40 if it wins; Serpentine £2 3TBP at 5.2 (um 4.4, was 4.8) Supplemented by Aiden O'Brien so could be worth a place bet.
    5.00 Mithras (FD) £2 win at 9.6 = £16.86 if it wins; Raadobarg (JM) £1 win at 15/2 and Aerion Power (SDS) £1 win at 16/1
    5.35 Kondo Isami (BC)MJ) £2 win at 17= £31.36.  Mark Johnston has an excellent record in this race
    6.10 Danyah (DoN) £1.50 win at 10/1 and Persuasion (JD) £1.50 win at 12/1
    Poss stakes £22.70
    Even if Cadamosto wins I can't lose anything today
    May look at other meetings later if I make time
     
  21. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    One quick addition
    I'm trying to get £5 win matched at 5.1 on Gullane One with Ella Mcaine claimng 5lbs  aboard in the 3.25 at Ripon was 4.7 now 4.5 
  22. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June   
    Hopefully you backed it each way; something I seldom do as this is a seperate bet imo and I struggle to find the benefit of it.  I know that Rupert seems to be OK with ew bets
     
  23. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Zico10 in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    My Royal Ascot selections today.  Some may not get matched at my requested prices but I'm not bothered
    2.30 Cadamosto (RM) £3.50 win at 7.4 = £21.95 if it wins
    3.05 Secret Protector £4 3TBP at 6.2 (um 5.5).  Looks like a good place bet.
    3.40 Dubai Fountain £2.20 win at 10.5 (um 7.6, was 9.4 so probably won't get matched now)
    4.15 Spanish Missiom (WB) £2 win 16 = £29.40 if it wins; Serpentine £2 3TBP at 5.2 (um 4.4, was 4.8) Supplemented by Aiden O'Brien so could be worth a place bet.
    5.00 Mithras (FD) £2 win at 9.6 = £16.86 if it wins; Raadobarg (JM) £1 win at 15/2 and Aerion Power (SDS) £1 win at 16/1
    5.35 Kondo Isami (BC)MJ) £2 win at 17= £31.36.  Mark Johnston has an excellent record in this race
    6.10 Danyah (DoN) £1.50 win at 10/1 and Persuasion (JD) £1.50 win at 12/1
    Poss stakes £22.70
    Even if Cadamosto wins I can't lose anything today
    May look at other meetings later if I make time
     
  24. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Wildgarden in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    210 chelmsford 8.8 marly betfair exchange
  25. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to roger2256 in Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June   
    June +16 
    1pt level stakes win only 
    17.35 RA Military Mission 25/1
    19.50 Ffo Asockastar 4/1
    Prices as of now b365 
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