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The Equaliser

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  1. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to roger2256 in Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th June   
    June +6
    1pt level stakes win only 
    13.25 Sou Osca Loca 8/1 B365 
    17.40 Wol Van Dijk 10/1 BV
    Prices as of now 
  2. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Monday 7th June   
    RESULTS UPDATE
    Only one winner today which was an insurance bet.  Hopefully I should do better tomorrow 🤞.  This has created a net loss on the day of £13.11 so my new balance is £905.86 (Bank £1056.22)
    Four UK flat meetings tomorrow so lots to sift through and hopefully find a winner or two
     
     
  3. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to Ironjoe in Racing Chat - Monday 7th June   
    Out 6.5
    Return 34
    Profit 27.5 points
    Always one that lets you down
  4. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Monday 7th June   
    Should have had an insurance bet on the favourite with Luke Morris aboard 🙃
    5.30 Win Toptime (SO,5) £4.20 win at 6.4 = £20.27 & Ins Bet on Mr Bluebird (TM) £2 win at 5.7 = £5.10 if TM does the job
    8.30 Win Jaffathegaffa (RC,5) £4 win at 6.8 = £20.88 if it wins and Ins bet on Devils Club (TM) £2 win at 3.30 = £0.59p should my main selection gets beat.
    I quite like this idea of the insurance bet either on the favourite or one of my nearest in the market top jockey/apprentices.
    Let's see how these ones get on.
    I should have a bot more choice tomorrow as I am very late with selections today
     
     
     
  5. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Monday 7th June   
    That's what value looks like.  Wasted £2.50 on Realist but Otyrar came second at 14/1.  Anyway didn't win so I move on
    4.15 Ling Adaaydreambeliever (GD5 only ride ) £4 win at 6.2  = £20.38 profit if it wins
     
     
  6. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Monday 7th June   
    Flat selection
    Leicester 2.00 
    SUREFIRE 3/1
     
  7. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Ironjoe in Racing Chat - Monday 7th June   
    Leicester 2 surefire 5/2 1pt win
    Leicester 4 elvic 6/1 1pt win
    Ponte 7.15 ventura express 15/8 2pt win
    Ponte 7.45 bit of a quirke 4/1 1pt win
    0.1 lucky 15 on above (1.5pts total)
    Good luck 🤙 
     
  8. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to black rabbit in Racing Chat - Monday 7th June   
    Yimou    6 30 wind  1pt win   11/2  
    Lightly Squeeze    2 17 Nates    1 pt  win  10/1 betfair 
     
    P/L  =  + 97.5  pts
  9. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Monday 7th June   
    I have to go out soon but looking at Jockey bookings I have chosen the 2.00 at Leicester
    Realist is Andrea's Atzini's only ride of the day so £2.50 win at 9/1 (Just missed 10/1). 
    Otyrar is Robert Havlin's only ride of the day also.  The horse has to bounce back but if any horse can do it it is a Gosden horse.  £1 win at 18/1
    Back later
     
  10. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat - Monday 7th June   
    I have to go out soon but looking at Jockey bookings I have chosen the 2.00 at Leicester
    Realist is Andrea's Atzini's only ride of the day so £2.50 win at 9/1 (Just missed 10/1). 
    Otyrar is Robert Havlin's only ride of the day also.  The horse has to bounce back but if any horse can do it it is a Gosden horse.  £1 win at 18/1
    Back later
     
  11. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to calva decoy in Racing Chat - Saturday 5th June   
    What or where was the research you looked at ?
    A.O'Briens string are some of the biggest improvers from 2/3 because they are forever looking for the next Galileo / Dubawi to keep their breeding machine ticking over & monopolising particularly UK & Irish racing .
    Snowfall may have had a poor 2 year old career but she won the Musidora prior to The Oaks but the distance was freakish , will we see her after the end of this season or will she become a broodmare ?
    Sir M Stoute is renowned for finding lots of improvement in his 4 year olds , it's maybe an individual training achievement that they all have or aim for .
    Why are M.Johnston's 2 year olds mostly ready to win on their debuts whereas a lot of Newmarket trainers like to give there's time .
    Breeding wise , why are War Fronts progeny better as 2/3 year olds than they are as 4/5 ? 
    Lots of opinions which is healthy.
  12. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Sunday 6th June   
    RESULTS UPDATE
    No winners and a non-runner.  Longlai was partcularly disappointing. Not too much damage done with a loss of £12.45.  My new balance is £918.97 (Bank £1056.22)
    Four UK flat meetings tomorrow and many of my top jockey/apprentices are competing against each other, whilst I appreciate that it should be the best horse that wins each race it is still difficult for me to choose which ones to opt for.
     
     
  13. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Saturday 5th June   
    I am sure that horses improve as they get older but if they all improve then there is no real edge to be had. I believe that 5 is the optimum age for a flat horse.
    It might be interesting to analyse based on the horse' s actual bithdate. A 2yo that is born on the 1st of January is actually a year old than one born on the 31st of December.
    There is a similar impact with humans, where those born in September tend to do better than those born in August because they have a whole year more to grow and develop.
     
  14. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to BBBC in Racing Chat - Saturday 5th June   
    @The Equaliser
    i know this is a bit after the fact but sky had this race as an extra place one. With all the non runners it dropped down so they were still paying 3 places ew although they don't apply bog.
     As @MCLARKE recently stated where skybet gave offers they tend to be a bit skinny so its often best left to sp. As it was oh this is us ended up being a great bet.
    I often look at the extra place angle as an opportunity for enhanced returns.
    For instance today betfred have the 1605 with an extra place so paying 3 out of 7 with bog. I also like Buick's ride in that one.
     
     
  15. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from BBBC in Racing Chat - Sunday 6th June   
    Just looked at Goodwood today
    1.45 Longlai (SDS) £5 win at 5.2 = £20.58
    2.55 Stunt (CF) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46 (High in ratings so looks better value than the favourite)
    3.30 Call My Bluff (SDS) £2 win at 12 = £21.56 if it wins
    4.05 Evasive Power (WB) £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 if it wins
    5.10 Youllovemewheniwin (HB5) £1.45 win at 14/1 (to return £21.75 if it wins).  Mainly chosen on ratings.  Jockey is a 7%er
    Total stakes = £12.45
    Good luck to all punting today.  I can't be bothered to look at Perth, I have other things to do
     
     
     
  16. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from BBBC in Racing Chat - Saturday 5th June   
    RESULTS UPDATE
    Only This Is Us gave me a pay out.  Should have had at least a £1 win bet on it.  What a game horse it is.  With my other bets losing this created a loss of £4.85.  My new balance is £931.42 (Bank £1056.22)
     
  17. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat - Sunday 6th June   
    Just looked at Goodwood today
    1.45 Longlai (SDS) £5 win at 5.2 = £20.58
    2.55 Stunt (CF) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46 (High in ratings so looks better value than the favourite)
    3.30 Call My Bluff (SDS) £2 win at 12 = £21.56 if it wins
    4.05 Evasive Power (WB) £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 if it wins
    5.10 Youllovemewheniwin (HB5) £1.45 win at 14/1 (to return £21.75 if it wins).  Mainly chosen on ratings.  Jockey is a 7%er
    Total stakes = £12.45
    Good luck to all punting today.  I can't be bothered to look at Perth, I have other things to do
     
     
     
  18. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from gbettle in Racing Chat - Sunday 6th June   
    Just looked at Goodwood today
    1.45 Longlai (SDS) £5 win at 5.2 = £20.58
    2.55 Stunt (CF) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46 (High in ratings so looks better value than the favourite)
    3.30 Call My Bluff (SDS) £2 win at 12 = £21.56 if it wins
    4.05 Evasive Power (WB) £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 if it wins
    5.10 Youllovemewheniwin (HB5) £1.45 win at 14/1 (to return £21.75 if it wins).  Mainly chosen on ratings.  Jockey is a 7%er
    Total stakes = £12.45
    Good luck to all punting today.  I can't be bothered to look at Perth, I have other things to do
     
     
     
  19. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Racing Chat - Sunday 6th June   
    Just looked at Goodwood today
    1.45 Longlai (SDS) £5 win at 5.2 = £20.58
    2.55 Stunt (CF) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46 (High in ratings so looks better value than the favourite)
    3.30 Call My Bluff (SDS) £2 win at 12 = £21.56 if it wins
    4.05 Evasive Power (WB) £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 if it wins
    5.10 Youllovemewheniwin (HB5) £1.45 win at 14/1 (to return £21.75 if it wins).  Mainly chosen on ratings.  Jockey is a 7%er
    Total stakes = £12.45
    Good luck to all punting today.  I can't be bothered to look at Perth, I have other things to do
     
     
     
  20. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to roger2256 in Racing Chat - Sunday 6th June   
    June +7
    1pt level stakes win only 
    16.55 Per Putting Green 9/1 
    Price as of now b365 
  21. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Sunday 6th June   
    Just looked at Goodwood today
    1.45 Longlai (SDS) £5 win at 5.2 = £20.58
    2.55 Stunt (CF) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46 (High in ratings so looks better value than the favourite)
    3.30 Call My Bluff (SDS) £2 win at 12 = £21.56 if it wins
    4.05 Evasive Power (WB) £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 if it wins
    5.10 Youllovemewheniwin (HB5) £1.45 win at 14/1 (to return £21.75 if it wins).  Mainly chosen on ratings.  Jockey is a 7%er
    Total stakes = £12.45
    Good luck to all punting today.  I can't be bothered to look at Perth, I have other things to do
     
     
     
  22. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to cannotbebeat in Racing Chat - Sunday 6th June   
    My bets for Sunday 6th June 2021

    My last experiment didn't work. Time for something new. This one is based on jockey and trainers winning percentage in the last two weeks.

    1.40 Listowel - Zara Mac 10/1
    £10 single

    2.20 Goodwood - Nawar 9/1
    £10 single

    3.10 Perth - Summer Lightening 7/1
    £10 single

    3.30 Goodwood True Destiny - 9/1
    £10 single

    4.05 Goodwood - Beauty Choice - 9/2
    £10 single

    4.40 Goodwood - Alkhattaaf - 5/1
    £10 single

    4.55 Perth - Scullys Forge 4/1
    £10 single

    5.00 Listowel - Saldier - 5/2
    £10 single

    5.25 Perth - Saint Patric - 8/1
    £10 single

    Good luck all CNBB.
  23. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Saturday 5th June   
    RESULTS UPDATE
    Only This Is Us gave me a pay out.  Should have had at least a £1 win bet on it.  What a game horse it is.  With my other bets losing this created a loss of £4.85.  My new balance is £931.42 (Bank £1056.22)
     
  24. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Zilzalian in Racing Chat - Saturday 5th June   
    I actually looked into some research on the "improve from 2 to 3" theory, its actually very rare as most horses improve with each other. the only improvement that seems to show up is ie when a 3yo that never encountered soft ground at two improves due to soft ground at 3, and the rarer reverse occurrence. this was backed up by my 2yo speed figures which seemed to need no 3yo additions to remain consistent from 2-3  i saw someone suggest they think snowfall is a good bet for the Arc "12/1" well good luck with that one. Serpentine won the derby well, did it win again? i would prefer to believe snowfall won a very very poor oaks (something i said on here before the race) And I quote myself, "looks like an ordinary listed handicap to me". and i am not too sure the derby today was much better. The winner was given a peach of a ride, with a poor horse coming 2nd.
  25. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Saturday 5th June   
    My Epsom bets today
    2.00 I like Patient Dream as it is a course winner, but I don't like the price as it has been smashed.  No value at best price 11/4; I'll Pass
    2.35 Maamora (WB) £5 win at 5.2 for £20.58.  I suppose Statement may beat it but what the hec
    3.10 Oh This Is Us (TM).  £4 matched at 4.1 3TBP for £12.15 profit.  I like the horse and it would seem a good bet for it to get within the first three at that price out of 7 runners.
    3.45 Recon Mission (RD3) £2 win at 13.5 = £24.50 looks fair value
    4.30 Bolshoi Ballet £2 win ins bet at 2.72 = £3.41 (I noticed that none of the Opening Show pundits selected the Aiden runner; ridiculous!).  Third Realm £1 win at 12/1 and a £2 place bet 3TBP at 3.7 = £5.29 profit
    5.15 Group One Power looks good, but not for me at 2.72
    5.50 Kimifive (OM) £3 win at 8.4 = £19.80 if wins and Lexington Dash (TM) £2 win at 7.00 Ins + Profit of £8.82 if it wins
    Total stakes = £21 for Epsom today
    Good luck to all today; should be a great day of entertainment come what may
     
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