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The Equaliser

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Everything posted by The Equaliser

  1. A bookies market stitch-up. Drifted badly in price in the run up to the off and finished at 11/1. Asdaa was about 15/2 to 8/1 last night and sent off by an adjusted 13/2 I'm sure. Don't know if there was a stewards but Asdaa looks to have kept the race by a nose. The canny Johnston team did the business in the end and although no one seemed to push that one's chances one can never underestimate Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning
  2. Decided to primarily follow overnight market movers today; got too bogged down in ratings yesterday 7.05 Chelm Best class race of the day but can see why most of my fellow forum members have passed it by as it looks to be a very open race. I have put £5.50 to win on Aljady at 4.8 = £20.48 if it wins. It is 5lbs better off with Maysonic for a nose beating in May. It has been running at the wrong distance since. C&D form in a similar class 2 event can't be ignored imo. Also Maysonic price has drifted from a strong overnight position 2.45 Wolv Badlands £4 win at 6.00 = !9.60 if
  3. 4.45 Ffos Asadjumeira one point win at 15/8 with Bet365
  4. RESULTS UPDATE Two of my favourite jockeys in the last race at Windsor and they both got beat. what a bummer. This has dented my profits by £32.33 and my new balance is now £774.74 (Bank £1056.22). It seems so difficult to build up and then so easy to take a knock. Mainly rubbish racing tomorrow. even though we have four meetings in the UK. I counted just 7 class 4 events and only one class 2 event in the 7.05 at Chelmsford. this is a handicap with a 2/1 favourite Sleep well, I know I will
  5. Got my money back on Maries Diamond but Tonto blew out for Kemosabe in the next race Have chanced £15 win on Companionship (TM) at 2.8 = £20.04 at Windors if it wins and £6.55 win at 3.3 on Betty Crean LA (WB) (6p ins bet) in the 8.40 at WIndsor = £21.55 outlay
  6. I totally agree with you that it is probably best to sit out his race and enjoy watching watching how it unfolds. Having done the work on it I took a punt on what I felt were the best chances. I didn't back Hatcher yesterday and regretted it. Let's hope that I don't regret backing my two today 🙂
  7. Only looked at two races so far using my revised selection worksheet 3.20 Ayr Shelir £8.15 win at 3.75 = £20.00 profit if win. Ins bet is £2 win at 5.8 on Maries Diamond at 5.8 = £1.42 if that wins Fascinating class 2 contest. Any one of the top four market contenders may win this. Strictly speaking should have got 4/1 about my selection(s). Gone for top rated Timeform horse and the in form David O'meara team. My insurance bet is on the Timeform selection and top RPR Nap rated horse 4.10 Cart Tonto's Spirit £10.20win at 3.20 = £20.03 profit if it wins. Had an insurance bet on
  8. 4.10 Cart Tonto's Spirit one point win at 15/8 with Bet365
  9. RESULTS UPDATE My outsider was a non-runner. Hatcher did win, though it almost fell at one stage. Good to see that the Skelton horses are still in rude health. No change in my balance of £807.07 (Bank £1056.22) Four UK meetings tomorrow. I counted about 5 class 3 races, some with favourites at reasonable prices. I have revamped my horse selection work sheet so as to squeeze the most I can out of Racing Post and Timeform ratings and selections. Should be bullet proof shouldn't I? 🤣
  10. Very tricky today. 11 qualifying races between the class 4 and class 2 races. To be honest there are so many short priced favourites this afternoon and they look to be more like "lay" prospects than winners. Hatcher looks to be a good prospect and I napped it at 9/4. However the market is strongly in favour of Scardura and that puts me off. I can't combine the two so I'll leave the race alone. This only leaves me with a small punt on Cards are Dealt with Brian Hughes aboard in the 5.25 at Stratford. £2 win at 12.0 = £21.56 if it wins
  11. 3.40 Str Hatcher one point win at 9/4 with Betvictor
  12. RESULTS UPDATE My Trixie failed after getting the first leg. I was a bit unlucky with Adnaan. It came 5th at 100/1 when I had a place bet for 4 places. At least Taste The Fear won which created a net profit on the day of £13.04. This makes my new balance £807.07 (Bank £1056.22) It looks as though trying to find races with just two main rivals could be a good winning strategy. I quite like the insurance bet angle rather than dutching because at least one is going for one's selection and just taking a wise precaution to offset the liability if the other rival wins. It was good to
  13. No luck with the Trixie 3.10 M/R Taste The Fear £7 win at 4.3 = £20.04. Ins bet on Giovanni change £2.65 win at 3.65 = 2p profit if it slams my selection. Total stakes = £9.65
  14. Great to see you back posting again 🙂
  15. Have done some analysis and have not had much success so far. I thought I had found a good factor to work with regarding ratings in the 1.50 at Newbury. The Morning Line were banging on about Real World having gone up 14lbs for this race. Yet Timeform & RPR have it as top rated Clear by 3 and two points. Ahah, I thought is the weak spot between top ratings and increased marks? I decided to look at the other two main rivals. Derab doesn't seem to have ratings to work with. On the other hand Movin Time who is -8 and -10 on ratings has gone up 13lbs. Does this mean that Real World shoul
  16. RESULTS UPDATE My pc is going very slow this evening so I'll be brief The market was right about Greatgadian but it doesn't excuse the appalling run of Sound Picture. @Zilzalianis right that there should be more scrutiny of trainers that let their horses run when they are not fit. Although Greatgadian was 9/2 the previous night it was nonetheless in the top 3 market leaders. I should have at least had an insurance bet on it. We live and learn. Anyway a small loss of £4.50 which makes my new balance £794.03 (Bank £1056.22) I am really liking doing comparisons of evening p
  17. Struggling to find a decent bet today. Interesting that the market was right with Golden Bugle but Caturra who drifted from the overnight position BUT was top RPR/Timeform rated won! I guess @Darranis right we should to some extent ignore the market moves and stick to our own fancies. 4.50 Nott Surprise Picture £4.50 win at 5.8 = £21.17 profit if it wins. This horse looks well worth a punt at the price. It was something like 5/2 overnight and has drifted a bit to 7/2. It seems to have the best chance on form. The market has gone for Greatgadian. This horse was 9/2 last night. I can
  18. 4.50 Nott Surprise Picture one point win at 7/2 with Betfair
  19. Frustrating morning with little time for analysis: 2.45 Nb Class 4 and class 5 winners contesting a class 2 race. It looks like Golden Bugle is the market's choice for this one. It was 5/2, 11/4 last night and is now a best price of 9/4. Maytal is easy to back at 7/2 was 2/1 & 5/2 last night. Military Two Step is top rated RPR & Timeform. Down in trip with a 6lbs penalty. Easy to back at 11/2 showing up as 10/3, 7/2 last night. I'll leave the race alone 3.20 Nb With the defection of Bosh the market looks confused. Orazio was 5/1, 6/1 last night; now 5/2, 11/4. there
  20. RESULTS UPDATE One winner today and so my net profit was £16.95. this makes my new balance £798.53 (Bank £1056.22) 5 UK meetings tomorrow. I can forget about the class 4 races as I have 10 class 3 and upwards races tomorrow. The best priced favourite is 9/2 in the class 2 event 7.30 at Hamilton
  21. 3.53 Leic The Attourney one point win at 5/2 with Bet365
  22. Blighted by time again. 2.00 Ham Ayr Poet £5 win at 5.5 = £22.05 profit if it wins. Tricky race where the market leaders are not strong in the betting. Ayr Poet was 11/2, 13/2 overnight so I have backed this one to win 2.23 Leic Very tight between Marsabit and Mars Landing in the betting. Mars Landing has shortened overnight from 7/4, 15/8 to 11/8 & 6/4 whilst Marsabit has weakened only slightly 11/10 to 11/8. Personally I prefer Marsabit but I'm not playing 3.53 The Attourney was 11/4 last night and is now around 9/4, 5/2. I have had £7 to win at 4.2 = £21.95 profit if
  23. RESULTS UPDATE Three winners today but Dashing Dick didn't get matched. The other two resulted in a net profit of £30.54. My new balance is £781.58 (Bank £1056.22) There are 5 UK meetings tomorrow with 11 class 4 events and just one class 3 race at Worcester, 3/1 seems to be the best price obtainable for favourite followers.
  24. The wonders of market mechanisms in horse racing. Fascinating subject. I think that all contributors have made good points @MCLARKE @Wildgarden@Bang on@Zilzalianand @Darran so how can we profit by it? Despite my comments about Global Prospector drifting like a barge and then wining at 10/1 I do feel that on balance @MCLARKEis right in that more often than not a horse will probably win when its price shortens and lose when it price seriously lengthens. The way to profit from this may be to take prices about one's selections during the day then, check in the run up to the race(s) to see how t
  25. 6.35 Yar Dashing dick £6.50 win at 4.2 for £20.38 (um 3.95) No ins bet 7.05 Yar Desert Gulf £3 win at 8.0 = £20.58 profit if it wins. Very open race; take your pick = £31.90 poss total stakes
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