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The Equaliser

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Everything posted by The Equaliser

  1. Newbury selections: £2 win Trixie = £8.00 with poss retunr of £112.50 1.45 Masekela (WB( 6/4 2.55 Ajyall (TM)11/4 4.00 Camelot Tales (WB) 2/1 Singles: 2.55 Aratus (AK) £3.10 win at 3.7 = £8.20 ins cover bet for my Trixie 3.30 Motakhayyel £2 win at 5.7 = £9.21 p if it wins + ins cover of £1 win on Al Suhail (WB) at 11/4 4.00 Billy Peyto (TM) £1 win at 7/1 Totoal stakes so far £23.10 I can't seem to find Oisin Murphy to bail me out if all the above fail to fire --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Effectively just one winner today which was Aratus to cover my Trixie Bet, I was a bit unlucky with Don't Tell Claire getting beat so a net loss today of £11.80. This makes my new balance £687.69 (Bank £1056.22) The big 3/4 had 4 winners, two losers and one non runner today. Using £1 level stakes I calculate that followers would be about £1 in profit at the end of the day. Great eh? Three UK meetings tomorrow and it looks like Oisin Murphy will appear at Chelmsford after being Awol today. Hopefully I can find and match up some good jockey bookings at some of the meetings Have pleasant dreams I know I will
  2. I can't help feeling that you have nicked the narrative from the Timeform verdict in regards to the 3.30 at Newbury. No offence meant
  3. Only had a chance to look at Newmarket so far: 1.00 Roudemental (RK a lot of fancied rides today) (unraced) £1 win at 10/1 1.30 External Glory (BC/MJ) Mark Johnson is a bit like Marmite; you love him or hate him) £1 win at 8/1 2.00 Quenelle D'or (GD5) 5/1 is too short for me (I have to have some scruples despite working on the race) 2.35 Case Key (LM/MA) Despite the price this looks like a good bet. £1 win at 11/1 3.05 Sunset Breeze (LM/Sir M P) £1 win at 8/1 3.40 Top Brass was shown as 5/4, 11/10 last night and has now drifted to 5/2. I can't see anything else in the race but no play fro me 4.15 Don't Tell Claire £2 win at 11/2 (Jack Mitchell in great form at present. There are doubts about Degree so Ill go with the better priced alternative Couldn't resist a small 50p win Trixie = £2.00 on External Glory, Case Key and Don't Tell Claire = poss return of £510.25 Hopefully will have a chance to look at Newbury soon. That's the trouble with Saturday's too many good races all crammed together
  4. 2.35 Nm Case Key one point win at 12/1 with BetVictor
  5. Our illustrious big 3/4 tipsters from the main sporting press all seem to agree on the following: 1.00 Nm Adnaan 11/8/, 6/4 3.40 Nm Top Brass 5/4, 11/10 1.15 Nb Mojo Star 1/20 2.20 Nb Hukum 10/11 3.00 Don Dance Fever 6/4 3.35 Don Papscito 4/7, 1/2 4.20 Rip Kettle Hill 6/4, 13/8 They came up with zilch on Friday with 4 contenders including a 2/5 favourite. Whilst I would hope that Mojo Star should at least prevail for them I don't see anyone about to make a fortune backing all of these. There are 48 races in the UK over 7 meetings tomorrow and one would have thought that our prestigious tipsters could have come up with something better than this for their followers.on a busy Saturday's racing. I believe that it is no coincidence that the big 3/4 tipsters from the main sporting press regularly advise on different selections so as to confuse the armchair punter from making some money Now to the hard bit; trying to find some value for money bets with my favourite jockeys/apprentices aboard tomorrow
  6. RESULTS UPDATE No winners but came close with Attagirl beaten by a head. I had a cover bet on the favourite but of course Oisin Murphy (the champ) beat me. Forgot to have a cover bet on OM's horse in the 3.55 too where Swayzee got beat. Loss on the day was £11.00 which drags my balance back to £699.49 (Bank £1056.22) Most startling news of the day was that all 4 of the big 3/4 media tips in unison lost including a 2/5 favourite. I wonder how much cash went to money heaven from ardent followers of the main sporting press websites? Loads of class racing tomorrow as it's a Saturday, let's hope that @The Brigadiercan find some winners for PL members
  7. 8.23 Thsk Tefnut one point win at 25/1 with Bet365
  8. Hi N, just wondering where you got the above stats from? I can't see it on ATR os SL and the RP wants a subscription fee to view its pedigree
  9. Yeah, I reckon it could win going away, the trouble is I can't find a decent enough donkey race in which to enter it
  10. Fergie Time can suck someone else's toes, not mine 🤣
  11. Looked at the big 3/4 media tips where they all match for the afternoon meetings. I can only find three so far and have to prepare lunch soon so the evening meetings will have to wait 2.35 Wolv Alphonse Le Grande. Currently generously priced at 7/2. I wonder why? Well, Laura Pearson and Ed Dunlop have shocking stats for 2yo races on the All weather; something like 7% and 5% respectively. This horse may win but it won't be carrying my money 1.15 Nott Serenity. the horse is ridden by Ceiron Fallon 12% strike rate and in great form at present 6/32 19% and trained by William Haggas who has a 20% strike rate with hos 2yo's. All looks good for this one but its best price is 4/5. If it drifts to evens I would quite happily put it into a Trixie 3.00 Nott Diamil Ridden by Rob Hornby (10%) and trained by Ralph Becket (17%). Its chance is obvious I guess at a best price of 1/2. However, the race has a few other possibilities so I think only mugs would back it at that price Very late again today with analysis; hopefully back later with the evening meetings big 3/4 selections. More importantly for me I hope to find some decent jockey booking VFM horses to back ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The first two have lost which leaves just the 2/5 favourite Diamil for favourite backers to get their cash back. Not for me though and good luck to anyone who feels like trying to cash in. Of the evening meetings I could only find one runner tipped by the big 3/4 in unison 8.23 Thirsk Myboymax which has a 6lbs penalty to carry. According to the ATR expert since it is due to go up 9lbs it is 3lbs well in today. Impressive info eh? so much so I have had 50p to win at 9/4 to gross £1.62 should it run away with the spoils. Meanwhile I have had £1 to win on Tefnut at 25/1( a more realist chance than Fergie Time for Keith Dalgleish imo) Still not looked at main jockey/apprentice bets yet. Slow as a tortoise today 🙂 3.20 Nb Attagirl £1 win at 14/1 & 50p win on Delmona at 2/1 Damn, I missed the OM horse and mine got beaten a head 3.35 Not Stargazer £1 win at 14/1 3.55 Nb Swayze (TM) £4 win at 6.6 = £21.95. Had £1 win on Super cub at 6/1 as a saver 4.30 Nb Walhaan (JD) £2 win at 7.00 = £11.76 profit if it wins Definitely off for a break now
  12. Many thanks fro that. I have looked at this site before. As I said to Alex, the available stats seem very much "old school" and need to be updated so as to be more dynnamic e.g. how a jockey performs at different tracks and over different distances, whether he is currently in or out of form and which trainers he is more successful with. There is a wealth of information that can be gleaned from up to date jockey and trainer information. The technology is out there as we see with football matches where there are instant stats regarding a player's performance on the pitch in a live game. This is what we need to help us find winners imo.
  13. 4.05 Sal Solid Stone one point win at 5/1 with Bet365
  14. Some fun bets today around my favourite jockeys + trainer at Salisbury 1.15 Spectatrice (T) Sir M P £2 4TBC at 9.0 = £15.68 p 2.20 Underthebiardwalk (OM) £1.20 win at 9/1 = £12 Ret WON SP 11/2 2.55 Amopr De Mi Viday (JD) £2 win at 13.5 = £24.50 p 3.30 Rania (WB) £1 win at 11/1 = £12 Ret 4.05 Solid Stone (RK) £2 win at 6.4 = £10.58 4.40 Hyanna (WB) £2 win at 7.6 = £12.94 5.10 Stay Well (WB) £2 win at 6.41 = £10.60 WON SP 10/1 Also done a £1 win Trixie = £4.00 on Solid Stone, Hyanna and Stay Well = £348.00 if all three win £16.20 total stakes Back later with Lingfield selections Two winners today however only had one in the Trixie so nil return there. The net effect of all this was a profit of £8.40. My new balance is £710.49 (Bank £1056.22) Been out all day so no chance to look at Lingfield today. The big 3/4 tipsters got 2 out of 3. One at 2/1 Crimson Sand 6.52 Chlm and 1.00 Ffos Hey Teacher 1/4. There other one Time Interval came 2nd 5/4 favourite. No energy to work through their tips today and considering highlighting these along with perhaps their biggest price selection from either of our revered tipsters so as to see if any money can be made that way!
  15. Thanks Alex. There is also a website called Flat stats. What I am looking for is some bright spark who comes up with stuff like Richard Kingscote is a master in sprints and performs badly in middle distance races (not necessarily true of course) and he does better on the all weather which of course is true as he is the champ. Or a trainer does best with his 2 year olds at a particular track but does not perform well with the older horses etc. A lot of the current available info is very much old school stats. In this modern age where we see instant stats in relation to football matches that are live one would think that someone out there would cotton on to the idea that on any given day we have a number of races to look at. Bearing that in mind it is not beyond the realms of possibility to use modern technology to provide really useful jockey/trainer stats in relation to a race under review to help us punters focus on what is relevant
  16. RESULTS UPDATE Good job I got @Zilzalian's winner at 25/1 for £1 as I had nothing else, though a couple came close. This yielded a net profit on the day of £3.50 and my new balance is £702.09 (Bank (£1056.22). The big 3/4 media tipsters had 6 runners today. 3 won and the other 3 lost. One winner was 3/1 Queenie Newall and Last Hoorah and Shuthoor won so just over a £2 profit on the day using £1 stakes A couple of classy races at Salisbury tomorrow and we have another Racing League Handicap class 3 venue at Lingfield as well. From what I recall the last one worked out quite well for favourite backers
  17. I usually reserve name calling after a race has finished
  18. Many thanks for the stats. Do you know of anyone who produces really good current stats for Jockeys and Trainers. There used be a book called "Trainers Records" many years ago but I guess there was insufficient demand for it and was laid to rest. It seems to me that if stats can be produced instantly for football or tennis matches these days why can't someone work on trainers and jockey stats daily that shows where the strengths and weaknesses are for both.
  19. He's on about 39 and 17% winners right now. I am just wondering who your favourite jockeys are? I tend to look toward the top 5 of the jockeys title, not because they are anything exceptional but because they get the rides. How did Oisin Murphy get beat on on Technique in the 4.15 at Salisbury today? He had the race at his mercy but still allowed Tom Marquand to steal it from him. And he's the champ or should I say chump.
  20. I agree, always trying to get us some winners at very decent prices
  21. 7.25 Km Riknnah (JD) one point win at 9/2 with Betvictor
  22. Would you believe I backed it at 25/1 mainly because Jim Crowley was aboard. Another disaster for the big 3/4 media tipsters who tipped up Buoyant
  23. I have a yankee bet today: 4.00 Bev Zumurud 5/1 4.15 Sal Lady Hayes 4/1 5.45 Ffos Hapenny 9/2 7.25 Km Rikknah 4/1 One 50p win yankee = £5.50 = poss return £807.75 Other bets 3.40 Sal Zwelela (RM) £1 win at 10/1 4.00 Bev Zumurud £2 win at 6.2 = £10.19 4.15 Sal Lady Hayes £2.30 at 5.5, Technique £1.50 at 7/4 ins bet 5.45 Ffos Hapenny £2 win at 7.6 = £12.94 7.25 Km Rikknah £2.20 win at 5.8 = £10.35 Total stakes now £22.50
  24. I thought its price was a bit short so I didn't back it 🤣
  25. Tipped by the big 3/4 and napped by Spotlight
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