kedbet
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Posts posted by kedbet
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Cashed out pick #20 with a small profit, not sure about Gauff anymore. Based on what I saw from Fernandez and Bellis lately I'm not sure about anything for the moment. Fernandez had a 5-2 lead in the second set yesterday and was in full control before losing 5 games in a row. Bellis was a different player compared to her second round match vs an in-form Pegula. These "flip a coin" performances cost me 1.4k and I can't afford to lose another 500€ although I still think that Gauff has the edge over Jabeur. There's another rain delay in Lexington anyway. Trying to rebuild some confidence before going big again.
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#21 | 500.00€ (50%) @ 2.09 with bet365 | -500.00€
11:05 | Raducanu - Grey | UK Tennis Series | Raducanu @ 1.16 | 6-7, 6-2, 10-3
11:05 | Bogdan - Pliskova | WTA Prague | Pliskova +1.5 Sets @ 1.18 | Bogdan ret.
17:00 | Bellis - Teichmann | WTA Lexington | Bellis +1.5 Sets @ 1.22 | 2-6, 4-6
18:30 | Williams - Rogers | WTA Lexington | Williams @ 1.25 | 6-1, 4-6, 6-7
Picks: 11-10 (52%)
Bankroll: 1090.56€ (+90.56€) -
#20 | 500.00€ (33%) @ 1.76 with bet365 | +90.13€
23:50 | Sherif - Day | Pro Tennis Series California | Day @ 1.10 | 1-6, 1-6
13:45 | Krejcikova/Siniakova - Kudermetova/Pavlyuchenkova | WTA Prague | Krejcikova/Siniakova +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | 6-1, 0-0
21:30 | Jabeur - Gauff | WTA Lexington | Gauff +1.5 Sets @ 1.33 | Cashed out
Picks: 11-9 (55%)
Bankroll: 1590.56€ (+590.56€) -
2 minutes ago, Torque said:
From what you've said the only time to cash out Serena would have been when it was too late to cash out and you'd have been staring at a loss.
Whatever, from now on I'll just shut up about my theoretical and unlikely thoughts beforehand and everything is fine ?
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4 minutes ago, Torque said:
Hopefully you can see how that looks a lot like you weren't going to cash out no matter what - which is entirely up to you of course.
Uhm no, I named three specific reasons above and none of them happened. Yep she looked some kind of rusty after 6 months without a match which is understandable. She timely showed that she is willing to fight and her physical situation improved drastically after the weather changed early in the second set. She had serve advantage and even going down a break she would have been within one game. That's not a situation to cash out Serena. At this point I really think I've drawn a solid picture of my way of thinking and acting, but let's just say it was up to me and I made the right call
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3 minutes ago, Torque said:
If cashing out is an option in your mind then it must be in your mind what would have to happen for you to consider cashing out.
Medical reasons, being completely off like she was in her last two grand slam finals, showing no fighting spirit at all.
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45 minutes ago, Torque said:
Again, that's completely your prerogative but hopefully you can understand that anyone reading this thread might be confused because it looks as though you were talking about possibly cashing out when you were never actually going to.
I'll leave you to it now. I don't want to clog up your thread. Once again best of luck with this.
I made completely clear why I did what I did in my detailed posting above. There are matches without a perfect moment for a potential cash out and this particular match had exactly none. There was no reason for 18 games and when there finally was some kind of reason at 4-4 (0-40) it was too late. Battling through this situation was the only option, because taking home less than 20% of my original stake was no option. So if anyone is confused just think about the risk/reward ratio at this stage of the match. Thanks for wishing me luck once again, even though it doesn't feel honest anymore ?
And thanks everyone for almost 1000 views already, appreciate it ? -
4 minutes ago, Torque said:
I know all about Serena. I've been following tennis for a very long time. All I meant was that you were talking about cashing out if she got into trouble and then she got into trouble and you didn't. It worked out - great - but it won't always be that way. As I said I've followed tennis for a long time and I've seen it all. It's entirely up to you how you go about your business and I wish you all the best, but maybe it would help you in the long-term if you had a plan like the one you had before Serena's match about cashing out and stuck to it.
I stuck to my plan and I didn't tell this background story to teach you, there are some more people with maybe less knowledge reading this thread.
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58 minutes ago, Torque said:
So you didn't cash out. That's surprising. She couldn't really have got herself into more trouble than a set down and 4-4 0-40. Still, nice result.
I had my finger on the button multiple times. Cashing out after she dropped the first set was no option for me, even though she looked horrible and was breathing heavily. It's Serena and I've seen her turn around matches likes this a dozen times before. After her pathethic performance in the opener she somewhat came alive in the second set being down 0-40 in her first service game. She started pushing herself for the first time all match long and won five points in a row. So once again no need to cash out. Throughout the second set the Kentucky sun was more and more hiding behind grey clouds what really helped her physically. We traded breaks and were on serve till the 9th game you mentioned above. At 4-4 (0-40) the cash out offer was literally a joke and I decided to took the gamble. She is called fat lady for a reason, because there's a proverb saying "it's not over until the fat lady sings". A Serena match is never over until the last ball is played. Her opponents frequently get scared stiff when they're on the brink of beating the legend. She turned it around by pure willpower and the mental edge over a browbeaten Pera. Needless to say that she would have lost this match against a lot of players.
After this shaky performance everyone should refrain from backing her against Venus.
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#19 | 931.00€ (38%) @ 1.67 with bet365 | -931.00€
00:25 | Day - Chavatipon | Pro Tennis Series California | Day +1.5 Sets @ 1.14 | 6-3, 0-0
10:30 | Zakarlyuk - Poznikhirenko | Pro Tennis Series France | Zakarlyuk +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | Cancelled
21:30 | Rogers - Fernandez | WTA Lexington | Fernandez +1.5 Sets @ 1.22 | 6-2, 7-5
Picks: 10-9 (53%)
Bankroll: 1500.43€ (+500.43€) -
Holy moly, that was one of the toughest matches ever to battle through. For me and for the fat lady ?
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Thinking about a partial cash out right now. If I pull out 500€ I could still reach 2.1k with the remaining stake if this combo succeeds. This would finally be a new peak of my bankroll after three setbacks to my beginning balance of 1k in the past. On the other side I think I have a good chance of taking it all. Serena (her husband to be exact) built a new tennis court in her backyard during the lockdown so she has been training for quite a while and should be fired up. Pera is 2-10 vs top20 players (beat Wang and Konta) and shouldn't be able to threaten the fat lady. Doubles will be played not until tomorrow due to rain delays. I'm a firm believer in Bethanie Mattek-Sands who is one of the most skilled and most smart doubles players in women's tennis history and I think she can even raise the level of sloppy and not so smart Sloane Stephens. It will be the first match on WTA-level for Bektas/Moore and even though they played over 50 matches (36/19) as a team on ITF-level I can't see them having a word in this contest. However, I'm in a good position right now and can lean back, wait and see. If Serena is about to run into danger cashing out will be a real option. The same applies for tomorrows doubles match.
Nevertheless I think we can do it without pulling the trigger ?
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#18 | 900.00€ (100%) @ 2.82 with bet365 | +1531.42€
15:00 | Netuschil - Schonenberg | International Premier League | Netuschil @ 1.40 | 7-6, 7-6
23:50 | Brengle - Sabalenka | WTA Lexington | Sabalenka @ 1.22 | 1-6, 7-6, 2-6
10:00 | Gracheva - Martic | WTA Prague | Martic +1.5 Sets @ 1.12 | 6-7, 0-0
17:00 | Williams - Pera | WTA Lexington | Williams @ 1.18 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1
20:00 | Bektas/Moore - Mattek-Sands/Stephens | WTA Lexington | Mattek-Sands/Stephens @ 1.25 | 1-6, 4-6
Picks: 10-8 (56%)
Bankroll: 2431.43€ (+1431.43€) -
#17 | 100.61€ (10%) @ 2.02 with bet365 | -100.61€
11:35 | Arcangioli - Mikulskyte | Pro Tennis Series France | Mikulskyte 2nd set @ 1.80 | 6-2, 6-4
13:45 | Krejcikova/Siniakova - Friedsam/Paar | WTA Prague | Krejcikova/Siniakova @ 1.12 | 6-4, 3-6, 10-4
Picks: 9-8 (53%)
Bankroll: 900.01€ (-99.99€) -
18 hours ago, Torque said:
Logically of course you're absolutely right. But I've seen it happen so many times I'm not so sure anymore. You'll often hear after a top player has come through a tighter than expected match that it might be more helpful to their chances of doing well in a tournament than a blowout win would have done.
Maybe you're right, but you gotta keep in mind that there is a wide field of options for good players to fix a match by doing it unapparently. A player who is way above his opponent skillwise can easily beat him anytime by just playing his a-game. That's the beauty of this sport and the main reason why it is so profitable to bet on tennis. That said a 1.15 favorite can easily bring the odds to even by losing the opening set and dropping serve twice like Tsurenko did yesterday. So if this player finds himself down a set there is only one risk: Not finding the switch. If he does he will win the match and has done a great job for whoever wants to make good money.
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#16 | 637.00€ (39%) @ 1.74 with bet365 | -637.00€
11:35 | Arcangioli - Mikulskyte | Pro Tennis Series France | Mikulskyte +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | 6-2, 6-4
13:45 | Krejcikova/Siniakova - Friedsam/Paar | WTA Prague | Krejcikova/Siniakova @ 1.16 | 6-4, 3-6, 10-4
20:00 | Bektas/Moore - Mattek-Sands/Stephens | WTA Lexington | Mattek-Sands/Stephens @ 1.25 | 1-6, 4-6
Picks: 9-7 (56%)
Bankroll: 1000.62€ (+0.62€) -
1 hour ago, Torque said:
I sometimes think maybe it's not as sinister as fixing, but that sometimes the far superior player wants more of a work-out than a straight sets win, or wants to go a set behind to set themselves the challenge of winning from behind.
I could understand such a move in a random exhibition match, but not when the main draw of a big tournament is on the line.
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#15 | 500.00€ (50%) @ 2.38 with bet365 | +637.42€
17:10 | Cocciaretto/Trevisan - Rus/Zidansek | WTA Palermo | Rus/Zidansek +1.5 Sets @ 1.33 | 5-7, 0-0
19:30 | Kontaveit - Ferro | WTA Palermo | Ferro +1.5 Sets @ 1.57 | 2-6, 0-0
21:00 | Kalinskaya - Gleason | WTA Lexington | Kalinskaya @ 1.14 | 6-1, 6-0
Picks: 9-6 (60%)
Bankroll: 1637.62€ (+637.62€)
I don't buy into the hype about these two italian chicks. There's a lot more experience and class on the other side of the net. Kalinskaya can only beat herself in this qualification match. And I still don't trust in Kontaveit. She beat an injured Martic and had a medical timeout herself yesterday where she got strapped on her thigh. Ferro looks very strong right now, extremely focused an has a great coach (Emmanuel Planque, former coach of Lucas Pouille) with her. So I'm laying straight sets victories in Palermo and take Kalinskaya as a banker. -
#14 | 580.00€ (37%) @ 1.90 with bet365 | -580.00€
14:33 | Cox - Patten (1-3 (0-0)) | UK Tennis Series | Patten @ 1.44 | 7-6, 6-3
15:15 | Sysoeva - Elie | Pro Tennis Series Florida | Elie @ 1.16 | 6-4, 3-6, 11-9
18:30 | Kalinskaya - Gleason | WTA Lexington | Kalinskaya @ 1.14 | 6-1, 6-0
Picks: 8-6 (57%)
Bankroll: 1000.20€ (+0.20€) -
No idea what Tsurenko did in the opener. 27% on serve in the first set and barely winning a point vs a lowlevel player like Palicova is technically nearly impossible. The course of matches like this always makes me wonder if some players just wanna earn some extra money by throwing on purpose. I've seen way to much over the years to buy into the "slow start" argument anymore. Let's see what happens in the decider and if she gets her shit together.
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#13 | 390.26€ (100%) @ 1.26 with bet365 | +79.21€
04:33 | Vukic - Reid (0-1 (0-0)) | Pro Tennis Series Sydney | Vukic @ 1.18 | 6-2, 6-4
12:15 | Tsurenko - Palicova | WTA Prague | Tsurenko +1.5 Sets @ 1.071 | 2-6, 6-4, 0-0
Picks: 8-5 (62%)
Bankroll: 1580.20€ (+580.20€) -
As you may have noticed I left the 20/80 staking for the moment. Currently I'm going with what feels right regarding my picks. The big stake in pick #11 felt completely right because my opinion on Martic is unchanged and Kontaveit had a letdown in any match she played. Unfortunately Martic started the match with a big strap on her right thigh and never looked as she felt comfortable on court. The "injured out of nowhere problem" is still happening quite often to me and is maybe my biggest trap at this stage. The only way to avoid dangers like this is live betting only. Anyways we're about to get 500€ back when Tsurenko gets the job done. Palicova is a 16yo local chick with a career-high junior ranking of #52. That's not that bad, but far from giving me creeps.
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#12 | 610.00€ (61%) @ 1.90 with bet365 | +500.72€
18:45 | Ferro - Giorgi | WTA Palermo | Giorgi +1.5 Sets @ 1.53 | 2-6, 0-0
21:45 | Zacarias - Sherif | Pro Tennis Series California | Zacarias @ 1.071 | 6-2, 6-3
12:15 | Tsurenko - Palicova | WTA Prague | Tsurenko @ 1.16 | 2-6, 6-4, 6-1
Picks: 7-5 (58%)
Bankroll: 1500.99€ (+500.99€) -
#11 | 800.00€ (44%) @ 1.78 with bet365 | -800.00€
11:00 | Rosca - Vanlangendonck | International Premier League | Rosca @ 1.20 | 6-3, 6-1
15:00 | Sugnaux - Dascalu | Pro Tennis Series France | Dascalu +1.5 Sets @ 1.16 | 3-6, 0-0
17:00 | Martic - Kontaveit | WTA Palermo | Martic +1.5 Sets @ 1.28 | 2-6, 4-6
Picks: 6-5 (55%)
Bankroll: 1000.27€ (+0.27€)
The Corona Project
in Glory Hunters
Posted · Edited by kedbet
#22 | 90.00€ (8%) @ 1.57 with bet365 | +44.36€
Silva - Broady (6-2, 3-6, 1-0) | UK Tennis Series | 6-2, 3-6, 10-2
Actually bought this at 2-0 in the matchtiebreak. Picture was faster than the odds movement. Happens a lot at bet365.
Picks: 12-10 (55%)
Bankroll: 1134.92€ (+134.92€)