Smiles Tennis

Well, I wont argue with you @four-leaf
I just want to say that my estimation for the probabilities were bigger than the probabitity the odds of the bookies reflected.
Tiafoe - Coric @ 2,56 --> Bookie: 39,1 %;  my estimate: ~ 49 %
Sweeny - Cerundolo @ 3,32 --> Bookie 30 %; my estimate ~ 44%
Marozsan - Cilic @ 2,225  --> here I already said my estiation was probably incorrect.
O'connell- Garin @ 3.02 --> Bookie: 33%; my estimation: ~ 50%
Halys - Harris @3.27 --> Bookie: 30,6 %; my estimation: ~ 40%#
So for me they were valuebets. Two of them were lost very close, one worked out, one was interesting when one watcheed the game (Tiafoe - Coric) and on one i obviously misjudged, yes.
You might of course disagree on my estimations, I could also elaborate how I got to them (mixture of ELO, Form, H2H, cross-references) and you might still disagree. Well that happens.
But in the future, as you wish, I will only put in my bets, when I have time to elaborate, why I pick them and why I see value. As I don't have the time for this anymore now, I just don't post them for today.
Have a nice evening (it is late in Austria now).
PS.: English is only my 2nd language, just before you criticize my formulations or my spelling too...

That's an unnecessary degree of pedantry and looks slightly silly given it's close proximity to multiple misspellings of "Sweeny".
I don't know about anyone else put I find that degree of criticism of someone else's selections (after they have lost) slightly excessive. Please stick to constructive comments preferably before the event. Otherwise it might look like there is an intention to discourage someone else from posting, which I'm sure is not the intention.

Jeanjean to beat Lys - 5.00 with Bet365
Huge price for Jeanjean who is only ranked 4 places lower than Lys, has also won in qualifying so far and has an 8-4 hardcourt record in slam qualies. These should be closer. 
Sonmez to beat Sun - 2.41 with Pinnacle
Again should be closer, I make this more a 50/50 match so 2.41 is value on Sonmez. 

We have an early start for this year's Australian Open!
Leolia Jeanjean (+1.5 sets) to beat Caroline Dolehide at 1.93 with Pinnacle
Jeanjean has qualified for the main draw while beating two very decent players in Rodionova and Lys, and she also beat Dolehide when the two met back in 2022. That was on clay, and there's no doubt that Dolehide is the favorite here, but I very much like the odds for Jeanjean getting a set at least. I think that she's a very live underdog under the circumstances.

X post removed. You could try being at least semi-polite, as all the other posters are. I don't go around posting X links willy nilly on here, as you well know, and if I did post one or two before, it was quite some time ago. I remember posting one comment about the Aussie Open in another thread which wasn't specifically a thread for the Australian Open, but it was a general comment and absolutely nobody had an issue with it, except it seems, you. Seriously dude, let's just keep the talk to tennis (and other sports in the other sections) and be respectful to each other, and we'll all get along fine. 

Jeanjean to beat Lys - 5.00 with Bet365
Huge price for Jeanjean who is only ranked 4 places lower than Lys, has also won in qualifying so far and has an 8-4 hardcourt record in slam qualies. These should be closer. 
Sonmez to beat Sun - 2.41 with Pinnacle
Again should be closer, I make this more a 50/50 match so 2.41 is value on Sonmez. 

Jeanjean to beat Lys - 5.00 with Bet365
Huge price for Jeanjean who is only ranked 4 places lower than Lys, has also won in qualifying so far and has an 8-4 hardcourt record in slam qualies. These should be closer. 
Sonmez to beat Sun - 2.41 with Pinnacle
Again should be closer, I make this more a 50/50 match so 2.41 is value on Sonmez. 

Natalija Stevanovic to beat Maya Joint at 2.02 with Unibet
Maya Joint put in a couple of very good performances in Canberra, where she upset Errani and Seidel before losing to Tauson. That's impressive, but I don't think we should start putting her as the favourite against players like Stevanovic just yet. Most importantly, Stevanovic has this very annoying playing style that's all about slices and low-bouncing shots, which is something that inexperienced players often struggle to deal with. At odds against, I'm happy to back Stevanovic here. 

No need to apologise. Was just clarifying as someone might copy your pick on the back of your comment about not playing for a long time.

Sorry, I meant to write hasn't played well for a long time. 

Two for tonight for me. 
Adelaide, Linette to beat Alexandrova, 2.33 with Unibet. Alexandrova hasn't played for a long time and I would make this a 50/50 match. 
Hobart, Yuan to beat Stephens 2.70 with Unibet. Sloane can't be trusted at the best of times and Yuan likes playing on the hard court and has come through qualifying here. 
 

Sorry, I meant to write hasn't played well for a long time. 

Two for tonight for me. 
Adelaide, Linette to beat Alexandrova, 2.33 with Unibet. Alexandrova hasn't played for a long time and I would make this a 50/50 match. 
Hobart, Yuan to beat Stephens 2.70 with Unibet. Sloane can't be trusted at the best of times and Yuan likes playing on the hard court and has come through qualifying here. 
 

Two for tonight for me. 
Adelaide, Linette to beat Alexandrova, 2.33 with Unibet. Alexandrova hasn't played for a long time and I would make this a 50/50 match. 
Hobart, Yuan to beat Stephens 2.70 with Unibet. Sloane can't be trusted at the best of times and Yuan likes playing on the hard court and has come through qualifying here. 
 

Two for tonight for me. 
Adelaide, Linette to beat Alexandrova, 2.33 with Unibet. Alexandrova hasn't played for a long time and I would make this a 50/50 match. 
Hobart, Yuan to beat Stephens 2.70 with Unibet. Sloane can't be trusted at the best of times and Yuan likes playing on the hard court and has come through qualifying here. 
 

Colina matches
Mandlik to beat Parry - 2.46 with Betfair
Podoroska to beat Bejlek - 1.85 with Betfair
 
 
No time for write ups tonight

L. Pigossi to beat E. Mandlik - 3.1 with Unibet
Mandlik only has two wins against players ranked in the top 270 since early September. Pigossi is back on clay after a mediocre hard court period but can cause problems to make me think she should be a shorter price than this. 

Colina - M. Lourdes Carle to beat D. Parry - 2.57 with Pinnacle
 
Parry was on a 7 match losing streak before dropping down to 25k level to build some confidence, reached the SF but lost to #280, then played a 60k and lost in the final to #224 so she's not at her highest level yet. Lourdes Carle has won 8 of her last 10 matches, all on clay, winning a 40k title in the process. 
Parry might have the edge but she's a bit short for me on current form. 

Colina - M. Lourdes Carle to beat D. Parry - 2.57 with Pinnacle
 
Parry was on a 7 match losing streak before dropping down to 25k level to build some confidence, reached the SF but lost to #280, then played a 60k and lost in the final to #224 so she's not at her highest level yet. Lourdes Carle has won 8 of her last 10 matches, all on clay, winning a 40k title in the process. 
Parry might have the edge but she's a bit short for me on current form. 

Can't find any when it comes to the ones I can access @888888.
Leolia Jeanjean to beat Despina Papamichail 2-0 at 2.00 with William Hill
I think this is playable at evens. I watched Papamichail against Sierra, and both players were all over the place, but Sierra was incredibly erratic and handed Papamichail the win on a silver platter, more or less. Jeanjean should be able to keep the ball in play long enough to make Papamichail make the unforced error, and her easy win over Anshba suggests that she has no issues with the Colina conditions.

WTA Colina - Starodubtsewa to beat Errani - 2.38 with William Hill
 
Starodubtsewa has climbed the rankings well this year when she started playing again, winning lower level tournaments, while Errani is approaching retirement and I think the odds should be closer than this. 

Rybakina to beat Sabalenka - 2.52 on Betfair
Rybakina has won their last two meetings despite being in worse form, so I think she should be shorter than this tonight. 

Agree with you that the odds are too high.  Also agree that Osta has a higher chance to win than the odd suggest. Zheng's low odd is because she is the local favourite and she will be the only local in the SF if Samsonova beat Kudermetova today.
As for Samsonova low odd, imho it is an indication of her chance to win this match. Kudermetova is already out of the SF (single) but she is in the Final for the double so she may not go all out for today's match and save it for her doubles final. So I find it more logical to bet on Samsonova to win it by straight sets or with a game handicap of -3.5.

Ostapenko to beat Qinwen Zheng - 2.62 on Betfair
Also Kudermetova to beat Samsonova - 2.66 on Betfair
Both too high in my opinion. 

Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Caroline Garcia at 2.20 with Bet365
Haddad Maia doesn't really look like the underdog to me here, she finally looked completely healthy against Keys, and I think that her level was perhaps slightly higher than Garcia's in her match against the American. Not a big edge, but I see this as a coin-flip, with perhaps a very minor edge for Haddad Maia.