Smiles Tennis
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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On 4/1/2024 at 9:56 AM, CzechPunter said:
Happy Easter guys!
Sachia Vickery to beat Jaqueline Cristian at 2.20 with Bet365
No idea why Vickery is the underdog here, it's 50/50 at least for me. Vickery looked well above her average against Kessler, and the fact that she's already played a couple of matches here is relevant due to the unorthodox conditions. With Cristian not doing anything noteworthy recently, I'm happy to go against her at odds against.
I was also on Vickery for this match, I was surprised by the result.
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Keys to beat Rybakina - 3.4 on Betfair
Keys leads the h2h 2-1. But more so I am going with Keys as Rybakina has struggled with her health recently. She's had two three setters already here and said after her last match how she has only practiced for a few days and is hurting all over.
A couple of days rest might be enough but I can't see her suddenly getting back to full fitness and playing her best, and Keys is a formidable opponent.
- ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter
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Kasatkina to beat Cirstea - 1.9 with Betfair
Kasatkina leads the h2h 2-1 including a 6-2 6-0 win in Abu Dhabi last month. She was 1.7 for that match so I am a bit confused as to why she's 1.9 today.
Dasha has already reached two finals this year and had a little drop off in form after those which is to be expected. Most players can't just keep going far week after week, they take a few weeks to recharge and take it easier before the next push.
Cirstea hasn't been playing too badly, but a SF in Dubai was reached by beating Vondrousova, Vekic, Kenin and Kudermetova, none of which are in form and setting the tour alight. That could slightly hide her level and she's also based in Dubai I believe, or nearby anyway, so it was like a home tournament.
She's further away here, against someone at a higher level who is recharged after some deep runs and I think 1.9 is worth a punt on Dasha today.
- CzechPunter and ThunderDan9
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E. Arango to beat L. Fernandez - 4.8 Betfair
Fernandez has lost 4 of her last 5 matches, only beating the horrendously bad Pera recently. She retired in San Diego, on her vlog she was having trouble with her shoulder in Dubai I think it was so that could be the issue with her recent form because shoulders are important in tennis and if it's hurting, you can't play your game.
Arango on the other hand came through qualifying here with three underdog wins and can move well getting lots of balls back.
If Leylah is mostly fit she should come through but I think 1.25 is a bit short so going for Arango at this price.
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1 hour ago, neilovan said:
Have not posted for a while. I think the Stephems Cirstea match is really 50-50. Stephens won at Indian wells but Cirstea beat her at the Qatar Open 6-2 6-3. I thought Kerber was quite poor in her match with Stephens. Slow on the court and quite a way from top level fitness ... hitting everything at one pace, with a really poor 2nd serve. Made Stephens look way better than she is. I would be interesting to Know when Cirstea got into the West Coast (how many days before match), but she has probably been in Miami for at least a week getting ready. I expect much more from her this time. Her year has really been defined by a terrible start losing 1st round at Brisbane, Adelaide and the Aussie.
Cirstea is based in Dubai, and may just be a poor traveller. Australia quite a long flisght - poor results. USA West Coast the same.
This is also Sloane's home tournament so to speak, so she has the advantage there. Against Kerber it's more her style of play that causes Kerber problems. Kerber feeds off of pace and counter punches, redirecting fast balls to move her opponent around, but Sloane hits with more top spin and this prevents Kerber from generating pace off the ball as it comes to her.
She's always had trouble against top spin hitters and Sloane made it 6-2 I think in the h2h for that reason.
- ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter
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Mertens to beat Townsend - 1.61 with Betfair
Mertens is the gatekeeper to seeing if people are top 30 level or not. She beats who she should beat and loses to those she should lose to mostly. She shouldn't lose to Townsend who has only beaten mostly lower ranked players recently, and needed three sets to do it a few times as well.
- yossa6133, ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter
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Keys to beat Shnaider - 1.89 on Betfair
Shnaider has been in good form but this moving up a level. Playing top 20 players at a 1000 event will be a heap more pressure, and she might be feeling some fatigue from her recent matches.
Keys, although hasn't been in great form, will like being back on the faster courts and this looks a good price to take.
- ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter
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Timofeeva to beat Gracheva - 1.5 on Betfair
Gracheva has lost 8 of her last 10 matches and dropping down the rankings. Timofeeva had a good run this year beating some decent players now she's over her foot injury. The faster court will help her attacking shots and she should take this comfortably.
- CzechPunter and ThunderDan9
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Yafan Wang to beat Peyton Stearns - 2.16 Betfair
These odds should be flipped. Stearns in poor form this year with Wang reaching QF's and SF's on hard court. Stearns is 1-3 against Chinese, 1-5 including Juniors and will need a bit turn up in form to hit through Wang, despite a good performance against an average Sabalenka.
Wang should be favourite here for me.
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No time for write ups today sorry.
Sramkova to beat Schmiedlova - 1.95 Betfair
Timofeeva to beat Korpatsch - 1.66 Betfair
Dodin to beat Tauson 3.00 Betfair
- CzechPunter and ThunderDan9
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Dodin to beat Watson 2.10 with Betfair.
Dodin in decent form on the hard court and performs well as slight underdog at the 1000s.
- ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter
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Starting soon
Pavlyuchenkova to beat Kostyuk 1.79 with Betfair
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IW - Arango to beat E. Andreeva - 4.7 on Betfair.
IW - L. Pigossi to beat C. Osorio - 5.0 on Betfair.
No time for write ups tonight.
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Heather Watson to beat R. Masarova - 1.88 Betfair
Masarova has lost 6/8 matches this year, including to Watson a few weeks ago. She's clearly very low on confidence with defeats against Minnen and Watson in recent weeks both coming from a set up, and with final set scores of 0-6 and 1-6. This looks to me like her head gets to her even when a set up and then her game is falling apart.
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Cornet to beat Osorio - 2.75 with Bet365
Osorio has lost 3 of her last 4 matches and lost her last two matches when favourite. She's not having a great start to the year, dropped to her lowest ranking for a while and Cornet can take advantage.
- four-leaf, CzechPunter and ThunderDan9
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Cirstea to beat Vondrousova - 2.46 with Betfair
Vondrousova, like Kuds, hasn't been in great form with only one top 30 win since the US Open. That did come in the last round but Samsonova is prone to throwing a nightmare match in and Cirstea can make this hard for her.
- freddie01, Robinnho and CzechPunter
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Cirstea to beat Kudermetova - 2.00 with Bet365
Kudermertova has been in poor form for a while and I'm not fazed by a win over Yastremska. Cirstea has the edge for me so evens is value.
- CzechPunter, four-leaf and ThunderDan9
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Pera to beat Fernandez - 3.35 with Pinnacle
Pera has a few wins as underdog in recent weeks, beating SST, Putintseva, Siegemund, and has two wins already here coming back from a set down both times which will no doubt give her some confidence.
Fernandez still the favourite but I think 1.35 is a bit short.
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Azarenka to beat Ostapenko - 2.52 on Betfair
4-0 head to head including two wins this year. Penko's last two defeats have been against Azarenka. If Penko is firing she can beat anyone but she's also a hand grenade at times and losing the last two against Viki might make her explode.
I see some value at this price.
- four-leaf, CzechPunter and ThunderDan9
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Pavlyuchenkova to beat Kostyuk - 1.91 with Bet365
Kostyuk struggles mentally against Russians unless she's a strong fave. She beat two at the AO yes, but as a strong fave. As soon as she's in a battle her mental strength can cause problems, and Pav is a fighter who won't make this easy.
- four-leaf, CzechPunter and ThunderDan9
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Going with this today.
Doha - T. Maria to beat G. Minnen - 2.79 with Pinnacle
- ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter
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Haddad Maia to beat Jabeur - 2.42 on Betfair
Haddad Maia can grind Jabeur down. Ons hasn't been great for a while and if her drop shots aren't firing then she can struggle.
- ThunderDan9, four-leaf, sterziyskii and 1 other
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Cornet to beat Rus 2.48 with Pinnacle
Cirstea to beat Sakkari - 2.6 with Unibet
No time for write ups, sorry.
- CzechPunter, yossa6133 and ThunderDan9
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Tennis Tips - April 15 - April 21
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Cirstea to beat Zheng - 3.2 on Betfair
Zheng has been terrible since the AO, beating only very out of form players. Whether it's pressure, or hiding an injury, or just loss of form which happens, I can't see why she is 1.45 against a decent Cirstea.