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Absurdity1007

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  1. KKR At Home Win the toss Against RCB.... ..... who are missing De Villiers Possibly the biggest mismatch in IPL history, and yet it goes the way of the underdogs. I think this tournament’s lottery status is confirmed. As you can imagine, I lost an embarrassing sum of money on that match, I hope plenty of you did too, as we should all have had the proverbial mortgage on KKR there!
  2. I agree. Robertson carries a bit of form, and Selby is incredibly difficult to beat over matches of this length - you should always have money on Selby to win the World Championship, every single year - but it’s Ronnie’s time again. It’s unbelievable that he’s gone 5 years without winning it, and it’s time for title number six. Clearly the greatest player ever to pick up a cue, and hopefully he can at least equal Hendry’s seven World Championships, if not surpass that figure, before he retires, because it would be a bit ridiculous if he didn’t end his career with more World Championships than anyone else in the modern era.
  3. Yeah, great odds as usual on RCB getting beat. I’m scared to lump on, after losing a serious sum when they got their first win on Saturday!
  4. Yeah, I had a quick count up of your IPL 2019 tips last night, and your top batter and bowler tips are in profit so far. If you can maintain that over a decent amount of matches, then fair play to you, I will be hugely impressed, because as I said earlier, I saw those as dead markets with no value. Prove me wrong please!
  5. I don’t think ‘I also bet on other markets’ can be used as justification for poor bets, or for betting on markets with no value, though. Surely each bet and each market must be judged on their own merits? If a market has no value (ie pays out at 64%) then it should be avoided like the plague. You’re watching a different tournament to me, or have a very different understanding of statistics than me, if you think that Jonny Bairstow wins today’s Man of the Match more often than one in nine, or Kagiso Rabada wins it more often than one in thirteen.
  6. I’ve had a look just now, and as I expected, the Man of the Match market pays out around 64p to a £1 investment. That’s a pretty paltry sum, worrying that bookies can get away with that in fact. (To compare that to a couple of other examples, Highest Opening Partnership, pays out 91p per £1, or the match result, which pays out 95p per £1.) If you can make a profit on a market which is paying out an average 64p per £1 invested, then you are some gambler, and I take my hat off to you. For that to happen though, your cricket knowledge would have to be exceptional and you’d have to think that the bookies’ lines are way, way off. I can’t see how you can overcome such low payouts, particularly on such a random format of sport as T20 cricket, but I’d love to be proved wrong and to join you in making some money! Let us know how it goes over the course of the season.
  7. I’m assuming you’re talking about Russell being top batsman for his team, at between 5/1 and 8/1? A lot needs to go right for Russell to be top batsman. He is way down the order, so firstly, he needs to get in and actually bat, which doesn’t always happen. Secondly, he needs Lynn, Uthappa, and all the other quality batsmen in that team to all score low enough for him to surpass their totals, and finally he needs to score well himself. I reckon 5/1 - 8/1 is a completely fair reflection of where the chances of that lie, ie two or three times in a 14 to 17 game season. I wasn’t criticising your long odds bets after a couple of losses, that wouldn’t be fair at all. I’m just interested in why you think they’re value, and if they’re profitable over a season or two, as if they are, I’ll be joining you in betting on them. I couldn’t see the value in those top player markets myself, I found them to all be lotteries.
  8. Betting on individual T20 matches, particularly in a tournament like this, where the matches come thick and fast, is usually a bit of a lottery, and very difficult to predict and find value. Yes, the likes of Chennai, KKR and Sunrisers, are the stronger teams, and will rise to the top over the course of 14 matches, but each individual match is fairly unpredictable. I think I have found a couple of areas of value though, one really obvious one and one not so clear cut: 1. The easiest way to make money on this tournament is simply by betting on RCB to lose. I can’t believe that they still go into most matches as almost favourites, given how bad they are. Are the bookies hugely over-estimating Kohli and De Villiers? They are a diabolical team. I love seeing a team of individual superstars in any sport getting their comeuppance at the hand of teams that actually work together as a unit, and this is no different. If the situation changes, we can reassess and perhaps back out, but for now we need to be lumping on RCB to lose each time they play. I’m not sure why this hasn’t been tipped up more strongly here so far? Is this not where the value lies in this tournament? How are they still favourites or almost favourites each time they play? 2. I think IPL is generally a tournament where home teams win, rather than the better team, and again, I don’t think the odds quite reflect that, and tend to favour the better of the two teams instead. I will be trying betting on the home team (apart from RCB matches) for the rest of the tournament, as I think this should make a slight profit. I can’t find much other value, unless there are odd matches here and there where the bookies have got their lines off for sixes or total runs or something like that. I think that most other markets are just lotteries, things like most sixes, highest opening partnership, highest first six overs score. Can I ask Fader why you think there is value in top batsmen/top bowlers/man of the match bets? Do you not think that they are also a bit of a lottery and the bookies odds are fairly spot on in terms of how they are spread amongst the players?
  9. Why would anyone in their right mind choose Ben Stokes to bowl the final over of a match, trying to defend a total? I’ve never picked up a cricket bat in my life, but even I could score 37 in the final over of a run chase, if Ben Stokes was bowling.