NickP
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Posts
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Joined
Posts posted by NickP
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Results 25/09
Lille WON 2-0 +£17
Basel WON 4-0 +£9
PSG LOST 0-2 -£40? (Watched em they were shocking in the final third!!)
Maribor WON 5-0 +£11.20
Bank +£135.40 / Selections 47 / Won 38 / Lost 9 / 80.8% Winners
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So just to be clear and back on topic ?, here are tomorrows selections:-
£20 on Lille @ 1.85
£20 on Basel @ 1.45£40 on PSG @1.18
£40 on Maribor @ 1.28 -
9 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:
@NickP I've no problem with this as long as you're contributing and not just directing traffic to your website.
Nope no other website trickery at play here, just using both in terms of formulating my selections only to be posted here. No alterior motive at all?
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11 hours ago, Str8 said:
Nick you're doing a fantastic job!!!
I just took 2 accas in 2 days. What I do is basically playing "safer" in comparison to what ELO ratings / your spreadsheet is providing. One acca was 20/1 and yesterday 10/1
For example the call for today is Talleres 1 @1.83 . What I did was putting Talleres 1X @1.16 . Yesterday Sporting - Farmalicao was an away win based on the ELO Rating and I took away +2 @1.55 which was an absolute banker imo (They won anyway lol)
Some bets are trickier. For example yesterday Wolfsburg didn't have high enough odds for a straight win and there was no value in betting on them (Hoffenheim are not a bad team at all). Due to their goalscoring/conceding attitute my safe bet was 1X+Over1.5 @1.50
I had also luck to take 6-8 matches in my accas but I think you can bring consistent doubles or trebles by mixing the right bets.
Let me know if you want me to share accas guys, I don't want to spam your thread tho
Yes not quite got round to acca's myself yet but the potential is obviously there. I am recording all results that my selection criteria are giving for 1X2 but right now only publishing here ,and actively betting, the singles to the variable bank.
In terms of spamming the thread, no problem, glad to have helped out, but not sure if we can keep two selection strategies going in the same thread so would appreciate, and obviously follow myself, any Acca thread you would like to open ?
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Results for 24/09
Tallares WON 2-1 +£8.30
Djugardens WON 1-0 + £7.20
Running Totals
Selections 43WON 35 = 81.3% Strike Rate
LOST 8
Bank +£138.20 to £10 Stakes -
14 hours ago, BlinkingSpirit said:
Thanks! This is helpful...maybe I'm off jargon, but is the "Parser" the ELO scores? What is an "improving" 2 AVG (are you comparing game on game?). Lastly, what other sites are you using for the ratings? (I'm cognisant of the rules of the forum so if it's a commercial site you needn't share). Would this be something like the Club ELO site? Or the SoccerSTATS?
By "Parser" I am referring to the Spreadsheet developed on the previous thread, linked at the top of this one, provided by @froment in his post on 28th May, and which you are getting to grips with as per your post above.
By improving 2 AVG, I mean the "2 AVG" rating is higher than the "4 AVG" rating, focussing here for my purposes on home games. As exemplified in your post above for Etar and 14.00 > 18.00 and Viitorul. However I am using a minimum +19.99 on the "4 AVG" as a start point in my selections
My other site is, and please remove @Sir Puntalot if not supposed to be here, https://www.soccervista.com/
- Retired_BSpirit, froment and Str8
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22 hours ago, NickP said:
Selections for this week are
Will update with odds and stakes tomorrow night.
OK updated with odds and stake. Technically Talleres does not meet the original criteria on the ELO Ratings, but given the league positions and the other site rating and the price am happy to throw it in for £10. This does kick off early Tuesday morning so get on quick if you are.
Sociedad removed (filter error)Le Havre odds not out yet will update later in the week.
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Selections for this week are
Will update with odds and stakes tomorrow night.
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4 hours ago, BlinkingSpirit said:
Basically I use the Parser and have an improving "2 AVG" against the "4 AVG" with at least a +20 in the "4 AVG", then check another site for it's rating and away we go.
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22/09 Results
Arsenal WON 3-2 +£8.00
Porto WON 2-0 +£2.20
Celtic WON 3-1 +£12.00
LA Galaxy WON 2-1 +£6.10
Running total Bank +£122.70 to variable £10 staking plan.
So 9 out of 10 for the weekend with just Brentford letting us down, balanced out by Arsenal somehow winning with 10 men!
Selections 41, WON 33, Lost 8. -
Saturday Results
Antwerp WON 3-1 +£14.40
Brentford DREW 0-0 -£20
Man City WON 8-0 +£4
Bayern Munich WON 4-0 +£4
Zilina WON 2-1 +£8
Fenerbahce WON 2-1 +£5
Running Total = +£94.40
Squeaky bum time on the treble when Zilina let one in, but they held on and it went in, even if I cashed out just to make sure!! -
Ok this weekends selections:-
Now I appreciate several are those are really low odds but they match my selection criteria, so for the purposes of this I will track at those prices, as on Bet365 now, and stakes.
However either proceed with caution, or create doubles/trebles on the short ones each day, whatever your attitude to risk is.
Man City/Bayern/Zilina/Porto/Celtic all looked nailed on, but you only need one to go wrong to lose across all five.
Man CIty and Bayern have both played tonight, with City travelling back from Donetsk. However City are home to Watford who are bottom of the league at present, not sure a battling draw against the present Arsenal team counts for much and I guess Aguero will start having been benched tonight. Even thought Cologne won at Freiburg they have lost every other game and the newly promoted side away at Bayern should be easy pickings. Zilina should be fine again against a newly promoted Pohronie who have a W1D3L4 record, their only win against another low placed side.
Porto and Celtic are both in Europa league action on Thursday night before their games on Sunday.Porto are at home both Thursday and Sunday so that counts in their favour. Celtic have a trip to Rennes before home to Kilmarnock, and hey it's Celtic at home in the league where they Won 17 and Drew 2 last season.
Five fold? If you are brave enough....
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Following on from this thread
https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/167228-exporting-daily-ratings-into-excel/
..and keeping it going forward in the right place.
Stats so far
31 Selections, 24 winners, 7 losers, Bank +£79 to a variable £10 staking plan, increasing depending on the game.
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22 hours ago, NickP said:
One for Monday
Russian Premier - Rostov £20 @ 1.75
Rostov WON 2-1 +£15
Bank +£79
Will move this thread into the Glory Hunters Forum from now on
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One for Monday
Russian Premier - Rostov £20 @ 1.75
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On 9/12/2019 at 10:28 PM, NickP said:
For this weekend
14-Sep-19 Czech Republic 1 Liga Mladá Boleslav - 1.40 - £20
14-Sep-19 Czech Republic 1 Liga Slavia Praha - 1.25 - £20
14-Sep-19 English League One Rotherham United - 1.57 - £20
14-Sep-19 English Premier League Liverpool - 1.14 - £40
14-Sep-19 Netherlands Eredivisie Utrecht - 1.28 - £40
14-Sep-19 Scottish Premiership - Aberdeen - 1.55 - £20
Mlada Boleslav WON 6-0 +£8
Slavia Praha WON 3-0 +£5
Rotherham WON 6-1 +£11.40
Liverpool WON 3-1 +£5.60
Utrecht WON 3-1 +£11.20
Aberdeen DREW 1-1 -£20
Profit on the Day £21.20
Bank +£64.00
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For this weekend
14-Sep-19 Czech Republic 1 Liga Mladá Boleslav - 1.40 - £20
14-Sep-19 Czech Republic 1 Liga Slavia Praha - 1.25 - £20
14-Sep-19 English League One Rotherham United - 1.57 - £20
14-Sep-19 English Premier League Liverpool - 1.14 - £40
14-Sep-19 Netherlands Eredivisie Utrecht - 1.28 - £40
14-Sep-19 Scottish Premiership - Aberdeen - 1.55 - £20
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Westerlo Won, Santos Drew
+£42.80
Nothing until the weekend now.
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Fluminese lost 0-1 -£10
LA FC lost 0-2 -£20
running balance +£37.80
Two picks over the weekend
7/9 Belgium Proximus League - Westerlo £10 @ 2.50
8/9 Brazil Serie A - Santos £10 @ 1.57
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Ok I know it is easy to post past results and claim success, but with a few weeks into the season, and many thanks again to @froment for the ease of capturing selections, I am having rather good success on the home win front.
09-Aug-19 Romania Liga 1 Politehnica Iași Home Win 2.60 2 0 W 10-Aug-19 Brazil Serie A Flamengo Home Win 1.50 3 1 W 10-Aug-19 Czech Republic 1 Liga Baník Ostrava Home Win 1.70 4 2 W 11-Aug-19 Czech Republic 1 Liga Jablonec Home Win 1.36 2 1 W 11-Aug-19 Czech Republic 1 Liga Viktoria Plzeň Home Win 1.36 0 2 L 12-Aug-19 USA Major League Soccer LAFC Home Win 1.33 4 2 W 17-Aug-19 Slovakia Fortuna Liga Žilina Home Win 1.28 3 0 W 24-Aug-19 Bulgaria Parva Liga Botev Plovdiv Home Win 1.33 2 1 W 24-Aug-19 Czech Republic 1 Liga Slavia Praha Home Win 1.20 4 0 W 24-Aug-19 English League One Wycombe Wanderers Home Win 1.90 4 3 W 25-Aug-19 Brazil Serie A Santos Home Win 1.30 3 3 L 25-Aug-19 Danish Superliga Copenhagen Home Win 1.60 3 1 W 25-Aug-19 English Championship Swansea City Home Win 1.85 3 0 W 25-Aug-19 Russia Premier League Arsenal Tula Home Win 2.05 2 1 W 31-Aug-19 Brazil Serie B Bragantino Home Win 1.25 2 1 W 31-Aug-19 English League One Gillingham Home Win 1.20 5 0 W 31-Aug-19 Russia Premier League Lokomotiv Moscow Home Win 1.66 1 2 L 01-Sep-19 Belgium Jupiler League Gent Home Win 1.28 3 2 W 01-Sep-19 USA Major League Soccer FC Dallas Home Win 1.36 3 1 W 01-Sep-19 USA Major League Soccer San Jose Earthquakes Home Win 1.40 3 0 W
My profit is £67.80 (EDITED - My spreadsheet was talking parp) to £10 stakes, and staking is doubled where the odds are less than 1.40
Obviously we go into a quieter spell with the international break, but given the above, I will continue to paper trade, and attempt to advise beforehand to track progress.
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@froment HI there! Sorry only just seen this, dropped footie betting with strange results happening at the seasons end, but obviously with the summer leagues now up and running and in form, will need to have a look at this again.
Too much time on the golf course!, except this week :-]
Cheers
NickP / TheMaximiser
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Yes I appreciate that seeds will play eachother, but ultimately only one seed at best can go a tournament unbeaten. Hence why 9 lines would win, possibly 10 if a non top ten seed won the tournament.
I guess it would need a decent bank as well, but need to find some historic tennis results to paper trade it to see if it works or not.
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Yeah that made you look LOL.
So I have often wondered, and never really paper traded, if the following would work.
The idea is that, ultimately, at best, only one Top 10 seeded player at best could win any particular tournament.
So that gives you nine winning lays, possibly ten if an outsider takes the title.
So simply you lay each Top 10 seed in each match they play in a "stop at a winner" until they lose a match, to ultimately win your initial target. Until, either, ten winning lines come in, or nine at worst.
So if laying each Top 10 seed for £10 once they lose a game, you are bound to win £90.
Your only losing line would be the 4/5/6 games won by the tournament winner, which would be losing lays for you.
Would it be profitable?
Does the above make any sense?
Does anyone have historic data to trade it against?
Or is this mad?
Nick
ELO Ratings Based Football Picks
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Selections for 26th
Gremio £40 @ 1.33
Sao Paulo £20 @ 1.40
Malmo £40 @ 1.22
Norrkoping £40 @ 1.16
Posted these above previously, but aware Brazil kicks off early tomorrow morning, so get on tonight!
Busy weekend coming up having looked at the stats so 14 games in total from Friday to Monday night, will post them all tomorrow night.