NickP
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Posts
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Joined
Posts posted by NickP
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Ok just a couple of system selections for this week,with Zenit being very short, so might try and increase the price by waiting in play myself, and laying Celtic seemingly an unlikely result but hey you never know...
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2 out of 3 going in, with the draw a goal off.
Draws have a lesser strike rate but better odds (obviously) so no concern with those just yet, very early days.
But profit for the weekend
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One for Friday night, not a full selection but a likely winner
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Ok just three for the weekend due to many of the leagues not having form yet.
May add in a few more which do not qualify but I fancy otherwise but not system selections later.
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15 minutes away from a good start with a goal in the first game taking the draw away from us.
Actually saw LAFC trading as low as 1.86 to lay before the off, so obviously patience required as I got 2.00!!
So slight loss, with the commission, on the day, unless you did better than I did with the price.
Potential midweek selections do not provide us with a pick, so expect to post on Thursday night for the weekends games.
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This thread is now superceded by the new one
Thanks
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So a new season is upon us, and having reviewed, tweaked and developed my strategy from last season, we start again.
Obviously not much about yet with the Internationals this weekend, and the system will need some form to identify selections, but we have a couple for today to start with.
Any questions fire away, all odds quoted will be what I am getting on Betfair exchange.
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Hmm not sure what happened in this one, price drifted a lot and ended up 0-0 for bottom of the table at home to 4th.
Just feels like a strange one.....
Maybe worth waiting a few weeks for more European leagues to get up and running again.
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Not expecting many bets right now, with most leagues just getting up and running and some form needed to use this properly.
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One selection for Tuesday
League Team Bet Odds Stake Egypt Premier El Zamalek Away Win 1.5 10 -
No Bet for Monday
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Draw-itis today blows apart the profit to date
League Team Bet Odds Stake H A W/L Return Commission Profit Bank Ireland Premier Div Shamrock Rovers Away Win 1.83 10 0 0 L -£10.00 -£10.00 £129.20 Sweden Allsvenskan Malmo Away Win 1.57 10 2 2 L -£10.00 -£10.00 £119.20 Egypt Premier Pyramids FC Home Win 1.4 10 2 2 L -£10.00 -£10.00 £109.20 Japan J.League2 Tochigi Home Win 2.35 10 0 0 L -£10.00 -£10.00 £99.20 Japan J.League2 V-Varen Nagasaki Away Win 2.2 10 1 0 L -£10.00 -£10.00 £89.20 Sweden Superettan Degerfors Home Win 1.36 10 4 1 W £13.60 £3.60 £92.80 -
Ok was going to write a Word doc and attach, but you cannot attach word docs, so here goes....
First off grab the sheet created by @froment from this link :-
https://rvasi.me/files/Punters-Lounge-parse-ELO-ratings.xlsx
This has an instructions page which is very simple to follow. I assume a level of Excel ability in the below guide.
All I have done, having unprotected the sheet as described, is add in a column (N) "Selection" on the "ELO Ratings" sheet, and put the following function in each row (you can copy and paste this into Row 5, then drag down the page to duplicate for all rows :-
=IF((K5=""),"No Bet",IF((L5="Draw")*AND(M5="Draw"),"Draw",IF((J5>=K5)*AND(K5<-29.99)*AND(L5="Away")*AND(M5="Away"),"Away Win",IF((J5<=K5)*AND(K5>29.99)*AND(L5="Home")*AND(M5="Home"),"Home Win","No Bet"))))
As you will see in the above example I have grabbed the data for next Saturday, 22nd August
This has given me a selection of Home, Draws and Away Wins, based on these settings
Now obviously you can set these to what you want, but based on the ELO Ratings I found these to be a decent range to play with.
Then I select all selections that are not "No Bet"
and then copy and past the boxed data, into this sheet....
https://drive.google.com/file/d/12SyZ9_4JG3SZ_VX96MPb8rUJqBJio5Vv/view?usp=sharing
For examples sake I have entered my own values into Columns P and Q, to represent the rating and result for the game from www.soccervista.com, plus the Odds in Column R
So having at this point identified suitable games via the ELO Rating, I then validate that against the Soccervista ratings, and end up with the set of selections in Columns AA to AN, which, based on my criteria in the spreadsheet, get auto populated into these columns
And the picks and values are as displayed here.
As you can see, for my criteria, some games are discounted. But this sheet is competely editable to what you want to do.
Once you know the result of the game you can input the "H"ome and "A"way goals into columns T and U and everything should update for you, including all the stats at the top of the sheet
Now I have been updating these sheets as I write this guide, so if you spot anything please advise, or you can update yourself.
Hope that helps!
To use this sheet yourself just delete the data from Columns B to N (some columns copied from the first sheet are hidden in here, do not remove them or the copy and paste will not work) and P,Q,R,T, and U and it is ready to go.
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Picks for Sunday
League Team Bet Odds Stake Ireland Premier Div Shamrock Rovers Away Win 1.83 10 Sweden Allsvenskan Malmo Away Win 1.57 10 Egypt Premier Pyramids FC Home Win 1.4 10 Japan J.League2 Tochigi Home Win 2.35 10 Japan J.League2 V-Varen Nagasaki Away Win 2.2 10 Sweden Superettan Degerfors Home Win 1.36 10 -
Three out of four going in which increases our bank once again
League Team Bet Odds Stake H A W/L Return Commission Profit Bank Egypt Premier El Zamalek Home Win 1.66 10 1 0 W £16.60 £6.60 £137.10 Japan J.League Kawasaki Frontale Away Win 1.61 10 1 6 W £16.10 £6.10 £143.20 Japan J.League Nagoya Grampus Eight Away Win 2.62 10 1 0 L -£10.00 -£10.00 £133.20 S Korea - K League Jeonbuk Away Win 1.6 10 1 3 W £16.00 £6.00 £139.20 -
Saturdays picks
League Team Bet Odds Stake Egypt Premier El Zamalek Home Win 1.66 10 Japan J.League Kawasaki Frontale Away Win 1.61 10 Japan J.League Nagoya Grampus Eight Away Win 2.62 10 S Korea - K League Jeonbuk Away Win 1.6 10 -
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Have a look at this thread which will provide more action over the weekend
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On 8/10/2020 at 11:57 PM, NickP said:
No bets until Friday
No bets given the splintered nature of the various seasons.
Appreciate one showing as a Home Win above, but as my cross check with another site has nothing, will not be advising it.
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This is what I am getting for 16th August, given my settings are as below
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One selection for Friday
Estonia Meistriliiga Flora Tallinn Away Win 1.25 10 -
One winner but obviously much better odds than advised so allow for that.
Australia A League Newcastle Jets Home Win 2.3 10 3 0 W £23.00 £13.00 £138.00 Bahrain Premier East Riffa Home Win 1.2 10 0 1 L -£10.00 -£10.00 £128.00
Football Ratings Picks
in Glory Hunters
Posted · Edited by NickP
Ok full results updated.
As you can see I have made everything a Level £10 stake from here and now on, so we can see how the different Bet Types perform on a level playing field. How you use them is up to you.
Zenit won, Celtic, well, I nearly cashed out for an Evens profit, but was too slow...
Selection for the weekend to appear later tonight.