Doedelzak

Well done ITV. 5 races from Navan added.

Agree with you guys on Dimitrov, though not sure that's a good sign given the way things have been going for me lately (fingers still crossed for Pegula!). @money44 Giorgi hasn't really been tested yet, not sure how she deals with her first real opponent of the season.

I like to just watch the first round of tournaments before I shell out any cash. At least in the 2nd round you are looking at players who not only played recently, but you are also seeing players who won there last match and you can analyise how. I am in agreement with Neilovan regarding Jiri Lehecka and I think the price is fair however, I have asked for a bigger price on the exchange and expect to get matched. 
I was impressed with Belinda Bencic straights sets performance today she looks one to follow ... weather permitting. Not looking great weather wise for today, Thinking of just going to bed and watch the action in the morning. 

I don't see much to get too excited by tomorrow. May even sleep in.
I think Harris showed some solid grit in beating Mussetti, and I think he may have a little too much for Fucsovics. That quick motion serve is just so tricky to read, and I think it will carry him over the line here. For me Mussetti far superior to Fucsovics who has turned into a vanilla journeyman.
I also quite like Jiri Lehecka who definitely has improved since I last watched him (I think he played in the NextGen finals). He is big and strong and has some game.  For me he gets past Eubanks relatively easily.
I watched both Griekspoor and van de Zandschulp in the warm up tournaments. Griekspoor definitely with better form at the moment. van de Zandschulp been digging himself out of difficult situations. Griekspoor to win here.
Will just take a 3 legged treble which prob works out close to 4.2 to 1 for a couple of units. Not getting involved.

The Aussie Open has been the first big tournament where I have been testing underdog software. My conclusion is this;
When there is so much money in play (relative to the rest of the year), nearly every player who shows up at the Aussie Open is bringing the best version of themselves (attitude, preparation, motivation, match readiness and mentality) and the best version of their game. The majors are the 4 periods of the year when there is huge money to be earned, and nobody wants to be unprepared, and miss a potential big earning opportunity.
It's a far cry from some mickey mouse (relative WTA125) tournament such as WTA125 Hobart, Adelaide, Auckland etc. In these situations, the fields are weaker, the gap between the abilities of the favorites and underdogs are generally much smaller, and players arrive in various stages of being unprepared. Jet lag, long flight, no competitive matches for 4 weeks, low motivation, overdoing it at Christmas, not match fit etc etc  ... with not much prize money on offer. These are the tournaments where the UNDERDOGS have their day. Most players are easing in, finding their feet and getting acclimated. The mentioned factors definitely close the gap between the dogs and the favs, and this is when betting on underdogs is going to be more profitable.
So it's far more difficult to bet profitably against a prepared and ready favorite, who is motivated to win a couple of matches and get a juicy payday. A prepared, motivated, rested, non jet lagged top 40 player is probably gonna get it done against a much lower ranked player (at the majors and any 500 or 1000 level tourn ).  And in my opinion the scores reflect it. Go to flash score and look at how many expected favorites really battered their opposition today.  It's all over the place. 6-1,  6-0 and 6-2 sets are common place.
So looking for underdog wins may not be quite the way to go at the majors, but will probably prove far more profitable over the rest of the year, especially at the smaller, low quality tournaments.

Did not know, so thanks. No good watching tennis at 4am (for me) gonna make a hectic workday. Not many surprises so far. Pegula pretty good, Bouzkova not so ( unable yo break serve once in a woman's match is not very good). Had her chance at 3-3 2nd 15-40 and did not take it,  See Collins and van de Zabdschulp struggling which is surprising, but coming through in the end.
Auger-Aliasimme starting off 0-5 down is so bizarre it's quite funny. Against the Popsicle ... insane. He can only get better ? He is still 4.4 to 10 on bet365.
Stan looks injured. Leoliia JeanJean playing an awful match, which makes a mockery of her 1.9 starting odds  ? . SOftware really did not have many of these totally one sided  blow outs. Maybe 4 in 39 games so this is an odd one. 
 

Having watched a significant amount of warm up matches, in both ATP and WTA I do like Pegula and Badosa to go very close to being Aussie open champs. Pegula is just rock solid.  Actually a very interesting article in the Guardian regarding her story.  https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/13/jessica-pegula-mine-might-not-be-an-underdog-story-but-its-a-cool-story    Pegula's demolition of Swiatek  was a proper klaap, 2 and 2, bringing an emotional "snot en tranne"  (in Afrikaans means Snot, tears and Misery session. from Swiatek which was surprising for me.
OK, her dad is a billionaire, but this is someone who has gone through a lot in her journey to be #3 in the world.  I think Badosa has serious talent. Some of the ball striking versus Dart in the United cup was brilliant. Was a good match. Achilles is a vulnerability on the serve.
I have 4 underdogs that I like in the 1st round. At the odds around 10.5 - 13  to 10 I only need around a  46% strike rate to win.
Bouzkova to beat Andreescu   (1.02)
Lestienne to beat Monteiro     (0.98)
JeanJean to beat Podoroska   (0.80  JeanJean was dog earlier)
Mertens to beat Muguruza    (Evens)
I am using variable staking, but all of these 4 have the same stake. Let's call it 3.5 units. Will post my (underdog system) pics on the forum throughout the Aussie open and will keep a running tally.  In the warmups it went 39 bets, 112.2 units bet, returned a profit of 32.3 units for a 28.8% profit and a strike rate of 64% . My average odds where 1.03 or 10.3 to 10. If you divide 1 by 2.03 you get the implied probability. SO I need to beat a strike rate of 49% which I am doing easily.
We'll see what happens but I am confident.

I'll go against Nadal which to me very clearly doesn't have the same fitness level as a few years ago , Draper is young and has a strong serve
i am taking Draper to win at least two sets at 2.10

Well, she has a potentially tricky draw in the first round, she dropped a set against Niemeier the last time out, and that was when her own form wasn't in any doubt. She should get better as she progresses as always, though, so the start is important. She definitely has what it takes to win the entire thing, but I wouldn't necessarily trust her. I have an inkling that one of the big hitters might win this time around.

8:00 Kempton - Kincade @5/1 Ladbrooks 

Naomi Osaka also 

You would have to say that MVG is a big favourite but you never know in a final. Smith would need to hit a 100+ average though, I reckon. He has done that though in 2 of the last 3 matches and the third being that Bunting match where perhaps there was a reason for it. Importantly, too, is that he has beaten averages of 97 from Clemens and also 97 from Bunting. Where as MVG has beaten averages of 96, 91, 90 in the last 3. It should be a completely different match tonight to the players that MVG has walken over previously. MVG has smashed everybody with 100+ averages but I have a feeling it wont be a huge average from him, this time.
Let us also remember that Smith has won the last 3 head-to-heads, which included beating MVG in a Final. The US Masters final. I know that's completely different to the Championship Final but it does give Smith abit more belief with winning big ranking events, finally.
I'll be going with the following. Although I have an outright bet on Smith and so just small stakes on these couple. Also worth mentioning the bet that was shared from @davegfor MVG to win the tournament, hit a 170 and a 9-dart finish. The 170 has been hit so if he gets a 9-dart finish tonight, that 66/1 looks on. Good luck with that.
2pts MVG to win the match, Smith most 180s and MVG highest checkout 9/4 skybet
2pts MVG (-2.5 set handicap), each player 13+ 180s and both to hit 2+ 100+ checkouts 4/1 skybet
 

Great competition. See you all in the new year. ?

Yep, it's all about risk / reward.
I thought @internetmails66/1 winner had the main comp sewn up but a sterling effort by @vangovinto catch and pass him.

Another good winner for @vangovinsees him overall the longtime leader.

This Friday (30th September) is mental health day for all those who work for Tag Media (the new owners of Punters Lounge).
We will be taking the day off to recharge so there will be no Naps competition on this day.
Thursday 29th September will be the last day for this month's Naps competition.

3:30 Pontefract - Corinthia Knight - 3/1 BET365.

3:05 Catterick - Tar Heel - 6/1 PP. 

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for ROYAL ASCOT, Tuesday 14th June to Saturday 18th June.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account In addition there will be a £10 prize each day for the highest profit for that day No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter everyday or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.

3.00 York - I am backing 2 in this race at the prices.
Gale Force Maya - 13/2 - finished 3rd in this race last year. Won 1st race of season but beaten next 2 runs (both listed - now drops to handicap) Has 8 x distance wins.
Arousing - 8/1 -Top trainer W.Haggas, can be slow away but has blinkers 1st time today and D.Tudhope rides. Has 3 x distance wins.
At the prices I thought I would back them both.

Fair play to @Alastair once again another cracking effort well done that man.

Well done to all the top people ...anyone one over 30 points a month is superb ,,  for the life of me I cant figure out how they chose that 66/1 shot! I don't know what MCs motivation is for maintaining this site ...   ( paid millions ?? ) but I appreciate his dedication.
 

4:35 York - Showtime Mahomes - 16/1 PP

4:35 York - Showtime Mahomes - 16/1 PP