aussietennisexpert

To bad I left Rudo since he's up 5-2 now and should do enough to win the match

Lock usually is trash on that level. He's pretty one-dimensional, very good serve and serve&volley but from the baseline he's producing errors if you let him run but if Copil has a day off from the baseline and Lock serving well this isn't out of reach indoor.
Ouahab btw is looking great so far.

Regardless of what happens with Arn, I don't see myself having too many more bets this week. Just not a big fan of the tournaments. Edit: Alright, that was hilariously bad .

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia to beat Lukas Rosol at 3.70 with Unibet
This new guy CAG really feels like the real deal. Just 15 years old and huge lack of experience but still playing good as hell. Talent wise I'd say Lukas doesn't have even half the talent CAG has. Lukas could easily be in a heep of trouble right from the start of this match.

Sticking my head out and saying that Spain has a new top player on clay coming in Carlos Alcaraz Garfia who right now is playing in Alicante versus the italian Jannik Sinner. CAG is 15 years old and already trying his luck as a pro. He's won two clay junior tournaments this season and is at a junior world no.26 which is also his career high junior ranking. He won first set 6-2 and lost second 6-3 to his italian two year older opponent. Both players are showing some great potential and I can't wait to see what both will be up to next.

I guess we all feel like that when we put a bet up - that someone will follow it and it might lose them money. Don't forget though that people have a choice whether to follow or not. Anytime I put something up it's always in good faith and that's the most important thing because bets will lose sometimes. You can only hope that if someone is following that they're using sensible stakes and that they know ups and downs will happen and that long-term profit is the aim.

Good advice, i finally did not any bet

Big John is serving like out of this world in Miami.. Totally incredible serving and we've seen that from him before and when he's in that sort of serving form it's virtually impossible to break him. Nobody creates breakpoints on the Isner serve right now and he can go on like that all day long. I don't know if Roger or Kevin Anderson can stop big John in Miami this season. Maybe Felix AA or his compatriot can? Who's gonna stop the servebot?

Pliskova to beat vondrousova at 1.72 bet365
i know pliskova is sort of struggling and vondrousova is having the season of her life but I have watched 2 of her matches (Mertens and strycova) and she just seems a level below pliskova, especially her serve can be very weak..
 
anyone else think at this price it’s a gift ?

Pliskova to beat vondrousova at 1.72 bet365
i know pliskova is sort of struggling and vondrousova is having the season of her life but I have watched 2 of her matches (Mertens and strycova) and she just seems a level below pliskova, especially her serve can be very weak..
 
anyone else think at this price it’s a gift ?

Harriet Dart to beat Cristina Bucsa at 1.53 with Pinnacle
Harriet Dart is having an excellent first half of the season, having qualified for the Australian Open and losing only to names like Sevastova or Barthel, both of which are miles above Bucsa. She took a small break, but her win over the dangerous Minnen from the first round shows that she should be ready to go - and, in theory, she should be at least a level above Bucsa in terms of virtually everything.

Yulia Putintseva (+1.5 sets) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 2.12 with Pinnacle
Happy to take this at odds against. Pliskova is prone to losing sets against opponents that move well and the conditions should allow Yulia to find some good opportunities and spots. Not sure she has enough to win this, but she should be able to win a set more often than not.

what a call.. he's dominating.

Jurgen Melzer to beat Sergio Gutierrez-Ferrol at 2.25 with Unibet
Hey @CzechPunter didn't Jurgen retire in Vienna last season? Wasn't that supposed to be his last match in singles? He has already won a ATP doubles title this season and now he decides to go for singles matches again. Quite funny and I'm ready to back him anyday of the week when a guy like SG-F is at the other side of the net. SG-F is a player who usually don't do anything special with the ball. Jurgen should be able to exploit this opponents weaknesses. We all saw how he dismantled Milos Raonic in Vienna last season and easily won in straight sets so the high capacity of Jurgen is still hanging around. He hasn't played singles since Vienna but he is quite used to playing well without matchpractice. Can still remember how he dismantled Jerzy Janowicz in a challenger tournament in Poland two years ago. Took the pole down in two in second round and went on to easily win the hole tournament without dropping a set. But before that week in Wroclaw he had a lot of matchpractice as he had just won Budapest challenger. But even though he doesn't have any matchpractice now he is capable of winning this match anyway.

Yulia Putintseva - Anastasija Sevastova Full Event Home (ML) @ 2.73 8/10 PINNACLE
Putintseva won the last four games of both sets to beat an unusually wayward Bencic. She played with more aggression, variety and consistency than she did losing to the Swiss recently in Melbourne, hitting deep into both corners and mixing more slice into the rallies. Once again there were plenty of dramatic antics by both players between points, but this time Putintseva managed to keep her focus during play as Bencic succumbed to frustration, receiving a point penalty for a second code violation in the penultimate game. Playing on a slower surface this time, Bencic failed to dictate enough points or work her way often enough inside the court, instead spraying too many low-percentage errors from disadvantageous positions, especially when it counted most. The Swiss converted just 1 of 6 break points and allowed Putintseva to win 72% of points behind her underwhelming second serve. Yulia made Belinda play a lot of balls and displayed very solid and consistent depth.
On the other hand Sevastova edged out a very hot-and-cold Siniakova in a ragged, see-saw encounter of three sets. In a contest featuring several lengthy strings of unanswered games, Sevastova made just 50% of her first serves overall (33% in the second set), had to break for the match after failing to serve it out, and wasn't a lot more consistent than the Czech off the ground. But she managed to hold her rally game together and contain her frustration in the end. Siniakova played a few decent games at the beginning and a crisp, aggressive second set, but utterly failed to maintain that level when it really counted and never showed any sign of trying to rein in her margins or adjust her tactics. Sevastova took an MTO after 3 games for what appeared to be a superficial injury to her right index finger. Neither played well at the same time, a messy no-rhythm match, with more misses than hits. Sevastova seemed to cope better with the wild swings in fortune..
Ptutinceva plays at HOME she feels great here and is able to win it - odds are great value here!

Rankings? I dont care about rankings. In tennis what really matters is the form. Look at Andreescu, she’s the 24th but she’s playing now like a top 3. Monfils is the 18th but he’s playing like a top 5 (obviosuly any player in the top 20 has to be considered as a very good and dangerous player). Albot was in a W/L of 12/13 before playing against Federer. Anyway, take a look at the list of players who won against Federer in the last year. I only see top 15 players there with the only exception of Millman (the most surprising loss of Federer in his career, I think).
It’s interesting the other players you mentioned there, like Kokkinakis. That match was in Miami 1 year ago and Federer did Final in Indian Wells (a few days before that match) and Title in Rotterdam (played 1 month before Indian Wells), so you got there the reasons why Federer lost that match. About Donskoy that was like… in 2017? That is too far for me to give a reason of that match but I checked it and that was after winning the AO with a month of resting for him before that tournament.
My conclusions? Federer is still only beatable by the best players, not by any decent top 100 player with the “right mentality” if there are not especial circumstances. 
Im not involved in any bet today, i don't like anything so GL to everyone with their bets.

Fognini to win a Set  @ 1.57 bet365 5/10
7-2 record vs rba even though last matches date back 2017 and has taken a set in one of the 2 losses.
Fabio did a semin final in Miami before (and has beaten rba there), while rba's best is 2 ro16
Rba looked tired and not dominant against Tissparevic who's mostly a challenger player nowadays.
Now Fabio hasn't really found form this season with 4 early exits in the last 4 tournaments.
This is as much a bet against rba as a bet for Fabio ...
If Fabio wins the first set he has a very good chance of winning the match..

Kyle Edmund to beat Milos Raonic at 2.25 with SportingBet
I think Milos Raonic was fortunate to get to the SFs of Indian Wells last week, especially given that he nearly lost to a player outside of the Top 200. He hasn't yet played a match here, as he got a bye in R2 after his opponent withdrew. Kyle Edmund is getting quite a few wins under his belt now having come back from injury. He's in a run of good form here. Also the somewhat slow-ish surface should dent Raonic's most powerful weapon.

Well, you're talking about Federer like anyone can beat him... Come on... Albot has take a set from him but don't forget that Albot is actually one of the most in form players. Federer is beatable? Of course, but not by any kind of player...

Mustard. If you aren't exhausted (i.e Tsitsipas in Dubai) and if you can forget who's across you from the net (i.e Kohlschreiber and Verdasco in Dubai) you can get at Federer. He's absolutely beatable, which is no real surprise as he's 37 years old now. What is surprising is the other players still haven't really cottoned onto this yet.

Pierre Hughes Herbert (+3,5 Games) to beat Filip Krajinovic at 1.87 with Marathonbet
Krajinovic played well in Indian Wells but I think he’s overrated here. I will take the handicap games to take less risks (I think this line has to be covered without problems by Herbert).
Joao Sousa (2-0) to beat Tseng Chun-hsin at 1.77 with 888
Too much difference. If nothing strange happens here this should be an easy match for Joao.
Thiago Monteiro to beat Bernard Tomic at 2.12 with 888
Monteiro has already 2 wins here (Majchrzak and Harris) and he will face the unpredictable Tomic who has very bad results recently.
A lot of matches for me today so if I don’t get profit at the end of the day I will take a long rest.
@eros good luck! Andreescu has a lot matches on her legs, she has to be tired.. Let's see

Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Viktorija Golubic at 2.25 with Unibet
I don't get it, why is Aliaksandra the underdog here? Just because Viktorija won a 125k event and passed the qualies in Miami it doesn't make her better than Aliaksandra. Sure Viktorija has some form but she met Aliaksandra last season three times and lost every time. She has beaten Aliaksandra once in 2013 on clay in Palermo qualies. Now Aliaksandra is higher ranked and she's playing some good tennis to be a top 40 player so I don't think she will lose this match if she maintains a top 40 quality. Viktorija is not the better player on paper but we'll see how it looks like in reality.

@aussietennisexpert I think Ajla can turn her match around. I mean they have only played one quarter.

I am going to be mostly away personally this week, but good luck to everyone who's getting involved in Miami Open/Challengers!

@four-leaf Tiafoe is in terrible form .. you didn't see him in New York ?