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Ocerradus

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  1. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    KKR vs RR
    Looks like a high scoring match considering both the bowling attacks are not good. 
    Average first innings score in Eden gardens this season is 190. The only time the score was around 160 was against CSK and considering their bowling attack that was bound to happen. I am expecting a good 200+ score. So I will go with 
    2PTS Total runs in match: Over 340.5 @1.90 Bet365
    Kolkata won the reverse fixture this season by restricting RR to 139, which was chased easily by them in 14 Overs. I expect KKR to win this match. However, the odds are too short for this and I will wait till the toss. 
    The only player in form (not including Jos Buttler) for RR is Rahane and not being a captain has helped relieve pressure from his shoulders and he can concentrate more on his batting: 
    3PTS Rahane top RR batsman @3.5 Betfair
  2. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to harry_rag in Bet analysis tool   
    Yes, it is quite a lot of work but if you want to know what you win on and what you lose on (and who you lose/win with) then I don't know of a better way. What I do now is take a screenshot of all my bets as I place them (virtually all are on phone or tablet) and then update the spreadsheet 2 or 3 times a week. That's more practical that sticking every bet in a spreadsheet as you place them.
    In terms of past bets, I've found if you log in to your accounts on a laptop or desktop it's possible to access your results for however far you want to go back (up to the maximum of 6 or 12 months usually) and copy/paste them into a spreadsheet for analysis (though the format will vary wildly from firm to firm).
    Keeping records is great. How else does one get to know that one is on a losing run of 35 bets (as I was recently)? 
  3. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from harry_rag in Bet analysis tool   
    Thanks, guys. Sounds good about keeping a spreadsheet. It's good to hear about what other punters are doing
    To me, It just feels like a lot of work to put the data in every time we do a bet.
  4. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    Felt like it was fixed, though this happens quite often with two teams (CSK and MI) in particular i.e. it looks like they are going to lose and they tend to win because the other team does something stupid in the end. In this season KKR too, but that is mostly due to Russell. 
    Speaking of which, today's game: KKR vs DC
    Eden gardens: there have been two games here and both were high scoring games with teams scoring 181, 183, 218 and 190, and this one seems to be nothing different. 
    Going to pick: 
    3PTS Total Runs in Match: Over 340.5 @ 2.10 Bet365
    KKR certainly and most likely the favourites, but at this odds (1.68) it's not worth backing them, I would wait till it goes in play. 
    For Top runscorer KKR, Nitish Rana looks like a fit to me, he has been playing well and I think this can be a match he gets a high score: 
    2 PTS Top Team A Runscorer Nitish Rana @5.0  Betfair
    For Delhi, it's none other than R.Pant
    3 PTS Top Team B Runscorer R. Pant @3.75 Betfair
    Good Luck today!!
  5. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    KKR vs RR
    Looks like a high scoring match considering both the bowling attacks are not good. 
    Average first innings score in Eden gardens this season is 190. The only time the score was around 160 was against CSK and considering their bowling attack that was bound to happen. I am expecting a good 200+ score. So I will go with 
    2PTS Total runs in match: Over 340.5 @1.90 Bet365
    Kolkata won the reverse fixture this season by restricting RR to 139, which was chased easily by them in 14 Overs. I expect KKR to win this match. However, the odds are too short for this and I will wait till the toss. 
    The only player in form (not including Jos Buttler) for RR is Rahane and not being a captain has helped relieve pressure from his shoulders and he can concentrate more on his batting: 
    3PTS Rahane top RR batsman @3.5 Betfair
  6. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    RCB vs KXIP 
    With RCB back in form, I would expect them to do well against KXIP, considering they also won away fixture. 
    6PTS RCB to WIN @1.77 Betfair
    Looks like a high scoring match.
     
  7. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    Yeah, not the greatest of quality. Buttler went too hard, too soon for the batsman bet. Annoyingly I couldn't decide between Dhoni and Jadhav and chose the wrong option but hey ho, looking to today Kolkata look to continue their 100% record at home. They face a Delhi Capitals team who have 2 wins from 3 away from home.
    Ofcourse Delhi beat Kolkata in the super over in this reverse fixture a couple of weeks ago after a tied match. Once again, the odds on the outcome do not appeal. i fancy Kolkata to extend their good home form and there is no price atall so again on to the individual bets.
    At home this year Rana and Russell have been outstanding for Kolkata. Interestingly, Russell had the most wickets here too, in both matches. So, I will take a little punt on the bowling section for him. Let's face it, if Russell does well, because of his position and power he will probably be Man of the match, so instead of taking him to be top batsman, i'll take the MOTM, but I would'nt put anybody off of the 5/1 on him being top batsman. Bowling for Delhi, you would have to expect Rabada who had 8 wickets in 3 matches.
    For Delhi, I am going to side with a big price on Ingram who has been solid. a 38, 47 and 22 shows he can settle and score and 5s is a good price in my eyes.
    2pts Rana top Kolkata Batsman 6/1 bet365
    2pts A.Russell top Kolkata Bowler 4/1 paddypower
    2pts C.Ingram top Delhi batsman 5/1 boylesports
    1.5pts A.Russell MOTM 7/1 paddypower
     
  8. Thanks
    Ocerradus reacted to Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    well we got unlucky with the winner but atleast between us we got both top batsman...
    Today's game - Chennai take on Kolkata. Battle of the form dogs as Chennai have won all 3 of their home games this season whilst Kolkata have won 2 of the 3 away matches they have played including a unlucky 1-over loss in the third.
    Russell has the star factor down the line for Kolkata and although they wont want it to be needed he is a big scorer for them to finish off an innings. They have scored pretty well, Kolkata. 185,140 and a 206in their 3 away matches. i would expect to see runs here. I'm going to side with the top batsman for both and leave the outright market today.
    2pts Du Plessis top batsman for Kings 7/2 bet365
    2pts A.Russell top batsman for Kolkata 6/1 ladbrokes
    1pt Dhoni MOTM 16/1 betway
     
  9. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    Nice, that's 4 batsman bets in a row for this thread.
    Mumbai Indians Vs Kings.
    Mumbai Indians 1 win and 1 loss at home this season. Kings 1 win and 2 losses away from home. Kings look like abit of value today. They won this fixture at home and although Mumbai won this fixture at the Wankhede, it was only by a few runs. I like the chances of Rahul as top batsman again and also going to take a little outside chance on Pollard as top batsman for Mumbai.
    4pts Kings to beat Mumbai Indians 5/4 betvictor
    2.5pts L.Rahul (Top Kings batsman) 12/5 bet365
    1pt K.Pollard (Top MI batsman) 8/1 bet365
  10. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    For me it will be 
    2.5 PTS David Warner top batsman 3.0 Betfair
    1.5 PTS R. Ashwin top wicket taker 4.5 Betfair
    1.5 PTS M. Nabi top wicket taker 4.5 Betfair
    Gayle not good against off spin and M nabi is in good form and so is Ashwin and Warner 
    I'll also take Hyderabad to beat Kings
    Good luck!!
     
     
  11. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    Kings Punjab Vs Sunrisers Hyderabad today. Kings 2 wins from 2 at home this season. Won this match-up last season at home and lost away. You would have to say there are some vulnerabilities if Gayle goes though. I will be taking Hyderabad today. They just look abit more solid in the middle order and i think if things go bad at the top order, they are the team to keep building.
    I'll take Rahul to be top batsman for Kings also. He hit a nice 71 here at home and the 11/4 looks a good price. Also taking a punt on MOTM with Warner and Bairstow. These two look formiddable right now and Warner loves it here.
    5.5pts Hyderabad to beat Kings 8/11 bet365
    2pts Rahul top kings batsman 11/4 bet365
    1.5pts Warner MOTM 7/1 bet365
    1pt J.Bairstow MOTM 9/1 bet365
     
  12. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    RCB vs DD
    RCB are super favourites, the odds doesn't look right for RCB to win. Worth having a small stake on DC to win
    2 PTS Lamichhane Top Wicket-taker @3.75 Betfair
    2 PTS Chahal Top Wicket-taker @3.5 Betfair
    2 PTS R Pant to be Delhi top Runscorer @4.50 Bet365
  13. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    RCB VS KKR
    Indeed a difficult one to call. Personally, I think this will be a high scoring match. Both teams have better batsman than bowlers. Speaking of bowlers, spin bowlers are performing much better than seam ones, part of the reason being they don't bowl much during powerplay and during the en, and they tend to take more wickets.
    2pts Top RCB wicket taker Y.Chahal @3.5 Betfair
    2pts Top KKR wicket taker K.Yadav @3.25 Betfair
    With the form Andre Russell is in, I this it is worth having a small stake on him. 
    0.5pt Man of the Match Andre Russell @9.0 Bet365
    I am also looking at total runs in match Over 355.5 but the odds are not great around 3.0 should be a good value for it.
  14. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    What a thriller. Andre Russell you beauty
  15. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    RCB VS KKR
    Indeed a difficult one to call. Personally, I think this will be a high scoring match. Both teams have better batsman than bowlers. Speaking of bowlers, spin bowlers are performing much better than seam ones, part of the reason being they don't bowl much during powerplay and during the en, and they tend to take more wickets.
    2pts Top RCB wicket taker Y.Chahal @3.5 Betfair
    2pts Top KKR wicket taker K.Yadav @3.25 Betfair
    With the form Andre Russell is in, I this it is worth having a small stake on him. 
    0.5pt Man of the Match Andre Russell @9.0 Bet365
    I am also looking at total runs in match Over 355.5 but the odds are not great around 3.0 should be a good value for it.
  16. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    A really difficult one to call today. Kolkata have the form and history here but you would have to think that Kohli and his team are due a win. I may look at some other markets on this one.
  17. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    Yeah, agree with that. On Skybet I'm pretty sure they offer a treble. So for example Hyderabad to win, highest 1st 6 over and most sixes is normally a good price. Also, they are offering 8/11 on Warner or Bairstow being top batsman for Sunrisers. Normally I wouldn't ever bet on something like this but for this match that seems very likely. It's happened on all 3 of Sunrisers matches this season.
  18. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    Thanks, all seems a good value bet I'll follow you on this one and one additional bet for me. SRH top order is better than DC. So I'll have
    2pts Team to make highest 1st 6 over Score: SRH @1.80 Bet365
  19. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    Good call on the unders there, Ocer. Bit of a weird game that one. I think that catch made a big difference but ultimately MI took game with the end of their innings. Too many runs given away.
    Today we have Delhi Capitals against Hyderabad Sunrisers. I'm going for Hyderabad today. i think Warner and Bairstow are two of the most in-form batsman in this IPL. When these two met last year at Delhi, Hyderabad won with much to spare and with 2 wins already at home also this season, I fancy them to get their first away win.
    I'm also taking them on the sixes market. The power they have in the top order should see them through on this. Delhi have hit 8 sixes in the two matches they have played at home. Hyderabad hit 6 alone in their last away match but overall this season they have hit an average over 10.
    5pts Hyderabad Sunrisers to beat Delhi Capitals 4/5 william hill
    3pts Hyderabad Sunrisers (Most Sixes) Evens betvictor
    2pts R.Pant to be Delhi top batsman 4/1 skybet
  20. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    Tomorrow at 3.30pm the reigning champions Chennai Super Kings take on the Mumbai Indians. This was a very close match last year as the CSK'ss won with a one-wicket win. This year the Super Kings are flying with 3 wins from 3 whilst the Mumbai Indians have got just 1 win. However, the Mumbai Indians do have a good record against the Kings. Nevertheless, I'm going to go with the Super Kings to win this one.
    I'll also take Super Kings to have the most 6s. They had the most 6s in this match last year. They have had the most 6s in each of their 3 matches this season and the Mumbai Indians have not had the most 6s in any of their 3 matches, so I find that abit odd.
    5.5pts Chennai Super Kings to beat Mumbai Indians 10/11 Ladbrokes
    4pts Chennai Super Kings (Most Sixes) 5/4 Paddypower
  21. Like
    Ocerradus got a reaction from Fader in IPL - Indian Premier League 2019   
    CSK certainly is performing better and having a great comeback after there 2 years ban. Agree with @Fader here about CSK beating MI. Being an MI fan myself I won't be too sad if I lost 
    I'd also have an additional bet of Total runs in match Under 353.5 @1.83 Bet365 Both teams have a very good bowling attack and this look like a value bet to me.
     
  22. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Darran in Hunter Chase - 3.25 Ludlow   
    As Road To Rome is no longer an e/w price I suggest having 1.5pts win on it instead.
  23. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > January 8th   
    My heart can’t take them either especially after what happened Saturday and could just see an injury time equaliser. Fortunately that didn’t happen and we have a nice pay day.
  24. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Trotter in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Well, that was a nice turn out with both horses drifting, Sanaadh massively !
    returns 467.50, profit 447.50
    bank 1422.99
  25. Like
    Ocerradus reacted to Trotter in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    both placed with 'Paddy' drifting to 16/1
    returns 142.80, profit 122.80
    bank 1055.49
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