Bang on

3.50 Hay - Prince Alex - 9/4 - Gets Soft going on turf ( 5 of his 6 wins)for the first time since winning at Glorious Goodwood 2 years ago (was rated 89 - today is 85). He won over CD on his only previous visit and is 3/3 in class 4 or lower handicaps. The main danger looks to be the unexposed (only 2 races) Quantum Leap, whose trainer Ed Bethell is in very good form ( 3 wins from 6 runners), and when jockey Callum Rodriguez rides for him they have a combined 43% strike rate ( might have a saver at 11/2).

3.50 Hay - Prince Alex - 9/4 - Gets Soft going on turf ( 5 of his 6 wins)for the first time since winning at Glorious Goodwood 2 years ago (was rated 89 - today is 85). He won over CD on his only previous visit and is 3/3 in class 4 or lower handicaps. The main danger looks to be the unexposed (only 2 races) Quantum Leap, whose trainer Ed Bethell is in very good form ( 3 wins from 6 runners), and when jockey Callum Rodriguez rides for him they have a combined 43% strike rate ( might have a saver at 11/2).

Newm 620 
Just a,quick one ....OUTRUN THE STORM  is on his own top rated here ....a fair bit in front of rest ....he's onky 4/1 so no ew price  unfortunately I'll try 5pt win 4/1 

7.00 Epsom 
Little boy blue 8.0 8/1 
Gdaay      7.9 9/1 
Alazwar     7.4 
Top 2 look value prices so I'll try 5pt ew both    

Reading this thread I agree with @MCLARKE and @harry_rag that you are not suited to gambling on anything let alone horse racing In fact i doubt your sincerity to be honest you have come on here with a victim mentality and sounds to me like you are looking more for sympathy than anything else because if you have been gambling and losing as you say then you are fully aware of how difficult it is to make a profit. Not one person on this site can post winners to the degree that you can make money. Anything i post on here is a small sample of what i do, if i was to post everything yes you would make money simply by copying it faithfully but there is not a hope in hell that i will spend so much time and effort just posting for the sake of posting everything i do, part of which are sometimes last minute decisions based on how a particular day/meeting is going EG ground changes, value, the appearance of draw bias etc. So my advice is to put everything you have planned to bet with in a jar and save it up for a month that way you will always break even. I know this is not what you want to hear but that's my best shot at advising you given the evidence of this thread..

I used my refunded stake from 'Marsh Benham' yesterday after it's 'worst start ever award'. 🤑

I am happy to make 5% over the course of a year but I will have losing months within that.
When I first started betting over 40 years ago I thought it was the way to make an easy fortune. 25 years of losses later I realised it wasn't !

I have nothing constructive to add to this thread, but I thank you for making this a 'Gold'thread for me.
Brilliant.

A very good summary.
For Lexia to get an appreciation of what it is realistic to hope to achieve, arguably the best UK racing punter of the last 30 years Patrick Veitch stated he achieved a profit on turnover of 16.6% in his book "Public Enemy". In every 10 bets that equates to two 100/30 winners, one 2/1 winner and 7 losers.

Recording the bets that you 'might have had' but didn't actually put any money down. Even over a week (or better still a month) will give you an idea as to whether or not it is worth doing. Believe me, I have had lots of 'ideas' over the years, but very few have been successful long term (over 3 months).
The biggest mistakes.. and reason for failure with punters are underfunding (too small a betting bank - a few losses cause a panic),... disillusionment ( it doesn't make money fast enough so other bets start to creep in.. instant failure), ... and greed (trying to win too much at once). Most professionals are more than happy to make slow and steady progress, there really is no quick fix solution.

Quinalt 1st ...mill 2nd ...Washington 4th +21.00 profit 

Paper trading is picking out the bets but not actually putting the money on, and just tracking how you get on.

But if you back any other horse the % of times the favourite or another horse wins will be even higher. @MCLARKE was simply suggesting to you (as someone who acknowledges that they haven't got much of an idea how to pick a horse) the best way to optimise your return from the PP offer. (The favourite is likely to either win or trigger the money back offer more than any other selection that you might select at random.)
 
No, there aren't. Put a lot of hard work and study in for a long time to improve your ability to identify horses that are on offer at a reasonable price as opposed to a poor one. The very best punters only make a relatively small profit as a % of turnover and still encounter losing runs. 3 of them could look at the same race and all come up with a different selection. Even then they won't always find the winner.
On the evidence of your posts you seem to have an unrealistic expectation of there being some sort of easy route to constant profit. My inclination is to suggest that betting isn't for you and you'd probably be better looking for another hobby. You're not enjoying it while you're losing (a reality that the vast majority of recreational punters have to accept) and seem to be aspiring to a quick fix that is unlikely to be attainable.

Why not 'paper trade ' your idea ? If you truly want to be a better punter, it takes effort. I'm sure we have all made countless mistakes when we started, the idea is to record as much detail as possible and try to eliminate as many bad habits as possible. The advice of backing Favs is probably not a bad one, although I'm not sure what the actual 'offer' is that you get.

Why not 'paper trade ' your idea ? If you truly want to be a better punter, it takes effort. I'm sure we have all made countless mistakes when we started, the idea is to record as much detail as possible and try to eliminate as many bad habits as possible. The advice of backing Favs is probably not a bad one, although I'm not sure what the actual 'offer' is that you get.

Yep, whilst you have the money back offer, just back the favourite. Keep records and work out which odds it is profitable at and what number of runners it is profitable at. You are very fortunate to have this offer, most of us don't. I made over £800 just backing the favourite before the offer was taken from me.
 
No. If I did I would be on my yacht in the Bahamas !

7.55 Ripon - Merry Minister - 11/2 (1/5th 3 places Hills) - Ed Walker has his stable in good form, and he sends just the 1 runner from his Lambourn base (428 miles round trip). Selection has had just 3 runs ( now 1st time in a handicap) over 1 mile, 1 mile, and then winning over 7f. Today tries 1m2f and his siblings include a 1m2f winner. Tom Marquand rides and looks a solid selection to at least place.
8.30 Ripon - Alex the Great - 7/4 365 - Trainer David Simcock sends just the 1 runner to Ripon where he has a 29% strike rate. Has been backed and looks likely to step forward (didn't get a clear run last time and only beaten around 2 lengths) and record his 1st victory (only raced 4 times).

7.55 Ripon - Merry Minister - 11/2 (1/5th 3 places Hills) - Ed Walker has his stable in good form, and he sends just the 1 runner from his Lambourn base (428 miles round trip). Selection has had just 3 runs ( now 1st time in a handicap) over 1 mile, 1 mile, and then winning over 7f. Today tries 1m2f and his siblings include a 1m2f winner. Tom Marquand rides and looks a solid selection to at least place.
8.30 Ripon - Alex the Great - 7/4 365 - Trainer David Simcock sends just the 1 runner to Ripon where he has a 29% strike rate. Has been backed and looks likely to step forward (didn't get a clear run last time and only beaten around 2 lengths) and record his 1st victory (only raced 4 times).

7.55 Ripon - Merry Minister - 11/2 (1/5th 3 places Hills) - Ed Walker has his stable in good form, and he sends just the 1 runner from his Lambourn base (428 miles round trip). Selection has had just 3 runs ( now 1st time in a handicap) over 1 mile, 1 mile, and then winning over 7f. Today tries 1m2f and his siblings include a 1m2f winner. Tom Marquand rides and looks a solid selection to at least place.
8.30 Ripon - Alex the Great - 7/4 365 - Trainer David Simcock sends just the 1 runner to Ripon where he has a 29% strike rate. Has been backed and looks likely to step forward (didn't get a clear run last time and only beaten around 2 lengths) and record his 1st victory (only raced 4 times).

Indeed, the flat selections I have been putting up here have been terrible with a current losing run of 24 !
However all my bets this season (from which these selections have come) are showing a profit of 58 points
It's just the randomness of numbers sometimes
I'm not sure if you paper trade before risking real cash, always a good idea
Today's selection
Chepstow 7.00
BAMA LAMA

2nd 12/1 - almost but at least the place part ensured a small profit.

2nd 12/1 - almost but at least the place part ensured a small profit.

2nd 12/1 - almost but at least the place part ensured a small profit.

4.02 Bev - Golden Melody - 10/1 EW (1/5th 3 places with365) - Has slipped to her lowest mark since 2021. Top course Jockey, and Top course Trainer combo, this CD winner should at least get placed and at 10/1 is a fair EW selection.

There’s the first leg in with Perotto winning. Let’s hope I can land the win double