MkayaGG

Altrincham v Eastleigh I am happy to carry on opposing Eastleigh away from home as I did last week when they lost to Maidenhead. Altrincham have been in good form and although they lost 3 on the bounce one was at Wrexham, and one was a 1-0 loss to Wealdstone which they should have won. I'd have them shorter than they are for this.   Dorking v York A bit surprised to see over 3.5 goals as big as it is for this given Dorking are involved. I did wonder if it wouldn't happen against Bromley last week given their lack of goals, but it duly ended up 3-2. Odds are too big on it being over 3.5 again for a Dorking game.   Maidstone v Maidenhead I was tempted to back Maidenhead, but this is just the sort of game they struggle in and actually Maidstone don't lose that often at home. They have only lost 3 times at home and drawn 5 and those have all come in their last 7 home games. I can easily see this being a low scoring draw so am happy to back the stalemate here.   Kettering v Southport (NLN) Kettering's pitch is always a right state and that has meant their home performances/results are much better than their away ones. They have lost just twice at home all season and even managed to beat Kings Lynn. Southport's away form has improved after losing 5 bounce as they have won their last 3, but given Kettering's strengths at home they shouldn't be as big a price as they are.   Kidderminster v Gloucester (NLN) Kidderminster were so lucky to beat AFC Telford on Tuesday night as they were still a goal down with less than 10 minutes to go. They then scored 2 quick goals to turn the game around, but it highlighted again how much they are under performing this season. I know Gloucester's form has fallen off the edge of the cliff and injuries have not helped, but the performance against Scarborough was much better and the late winner had an xG of just 0.07 which sums up what a wonder strike it was. I think 2 weeks off from the league will have been a big help for the team who had a very busy set of fixtures and one where the players really put in a lot of effort when King first joined. I'd still have the home side as favs, but no way should their be as much between the two sides as there is so I am happy to take an away win.   Forest Green v Alvechurch Into the FA Cup and whilst I know FGR are bottom and Alvechurch beat Cheltenham in the last round I just can't see them causing another upset. FGR managed to beat South Shields 2-0 in the previous around away from home and South Shields are miles better than Alvechurch. As much as Alvechurch performed so well against Cheltenham I just can't see them being able to pull off another freak result like that and as I said in the previous round, the fact the game is on TV helps focus the League sides minds in my view. The -1 handicap is odds against and FGR really should be covering that.   Dagenham & Redbridge v Gillingham Dagenham have been a really curious side this season having put in some stinking performances, but the vast majority of those have been away from home. They have only lost once at home and that was 5-0 against Notts County. Gillingham are really struggling at the bottom of League 2 and who knows this might be a league game I am writing about next season. I'd make Dagenham favourites to win this so they are a spot of value.   Ipswich v Buxton Ipswich didn't put out their first team against Bracknell, but you could see the massive class edge that they had and they did enough to land the handicap bet for us in the end. Now they are at home here I think they can run out easy winners against a Buxton side who aren't as good as I thought they would be this season. The handicap is at -2 again, but I think they can cover it and prove their massive class edge.   Altrincham 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Dorking v York over 3.5 goals 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Maidstone v Maidenhead draw 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfred (12/5 with Bet365 and take up to 21/10) Kettering 1pt @ 5/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1) Gloucester 1pt @ 11/2 with everyone and William Hill are 13/2 (take up to 5/2) Forest Green -1 3pts @ 11/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 4/5) Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Ipswich -2 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/10)

Arsenal vs Southampton
The Premier League offers up a few 3pm GMT kick-offs on Saturday. The first of those that I'm previewing is the clash between Arsenal and Southampton at the Emirates Stadium. The home side will be looking to get back to winning ways after a poor spell of form against a visiting team that are also finding it difficult to pick up the wins right now with the relegation zone looming over their shoulder.
Arsenal were starting to look like a team that were getting their sh*t together but 3 defeats from their last 4 league games has seen the team drop to 7th in the table and fall 4 points off the pace of the Champions League qualification spots. The most frustrating part of that is that picking up better results in those losses would've made the world of difference. Fortunately, home form has remained solid for the Gunners with the team going unbeaten in their last 8 home matches having won 7 of them. It's also been interesting to see that 3 of the last 6 Arsenal wins have come by a 2-0 score-line. Mikel Arteta will be under pressure to win this though. The home form is keeping them alive. If that goes and the away form continues to slump then that could become a big problem.
Southampton will want to start picking up the wins as soon as possible. Ralph Hasenhuttl's men are in 16th place and just 6 points above the drop zone with them having played a game more than 18th positioned Burnley. The Saints haven't managed to win any of their last 4 league games and you have to say that 3 of those matches are games where they'd undoubtedly have felt they could take something from those games. Away form is an issue for this team with them only winning 1 of their last 7 away league games this season and conceding an average of 2 goals per game on their travels.
I have to say that this is a game that is there for the taking for Arsenal. Their home form combined with Southampton's torrid away results means that they should be looking to win this. Their recent record in this fixture is decent having won 3 and drawn 2 of the previous 5 league meetings. The bad news for Southampton is that they haven't won an away league game against Arsenal since a 1-0 win back on 21st November, 1987.
Arsenal to Win @ 1.80 with SpreadEx
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.76 with SBK

Leeds vs Fulham
The second game in the Premier League this weekend is between newly promoted clubs Leeds and Fulham in a 3pm BST kick-off on Saturday afternoon from Elland Road. @Ameer13, keen to hear your thoughts after reading what I'm about to put. Both teams lost their opening games of the new season but will be coming into this game with different levels of self-belief based on their performances.
Leeds have undoubtedly been the most high-profile promotion to the English top flight possibly since Manchester City returned back in 2002. Marcelo Bielsa has managed what 14 managers had failed to do at different points before him and guide the club back to the promised land. The Whites stormed to the Championship title last season with their high intense pressing style of play. It was no surprise to those of us that have watched them a fair bit in the Championship that they gave the reigning champions Liverpool a cracking game in their 4-3 opening day defeat. The team have also managed to score 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 7 home matches. The 1-1 draw with Hull followed by a 9-8 defeat on pens saw back-up players fielded in the main so Bielsa has ensured his first team are ready for this encounter.
Fulham have been tipped to finish bottom of the Premier League this season by a lot of people and I have to agree with that. Scott Parker's side looked every bit as out of their depth as we all suspected. A 3-0 loss at home to Arsenal could have been an even worse score-line on another day. The 1-0 win away to League One side Ipswich in the EFL Cup 2nd Round was hardly inspirational either. It was also surprising to see Parker pick a strong side for that game too. Maybe he felt some players needed more game time given the shortened off-season period.
These two sides only met back in June when Leeds prevailed as 3-0 winners at home. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a similar score-line in this one. I wasn't overly impressed with Fulham when Cardiff played them last season. As I said about West Brom, we were a bang average side and they struggled to get past us. Leeds should turn them over by at least a couple of goals with their high press play.
Leeds to Win @ 1.67 with Boylesports
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.95 with BetVictor

I'm going to go against most of you as I just don't fancy Leeds at those prices.  Two newly promoted teams, and no real home advantage with the lack of fans.  I wouldn't want to be on Leeds at 1.66 which seems to be the best price at the moment.  They managed to lose in the cup to at home to Hull midweek, while Fulham managed a 1-0 win at Ipswich.  I know Leeds probably didn't care about the cup, but even so, you'd expect them to beat a Hull team (who also probably didn't care) who have just been relegated to league 1.  Fulham +1 at 2.38 with Betfair with a low stake is my bet on this game.
Agree with @neilovan about Palace being a banana skin match for Man U.   Again i'm on the away side with a +1 handicap for this one at 3.5 with paddy power.  Reasoning is this is Man Utd's first game since the europa league exit, whereas Palace have a game under their belts and I thought were impressive in their game against Southampton last week.  Admittedly they managed to lose to Bournemouth on penalties in the week, but I assume weren't fussed about the game.  Palace won this game last season, and have a habit of winning away at the bigger teams.
Finally, going with Newcastle again who did the business for me last week.  The bookies have Newcastle as only slight favourites which seems wrong given Newcastle finished well above Brighton last season, and have strengthened the team well IMO for this season.  Brighton still lack a proven goalscorer, and had to play on Thursday so two days less rest than Newcastle.  Newcastle at 2.8 is a great price all things considered.
 
 
 
 

I'll also be on Leeds this weekend. Thought they were excellent against Liverpool. As neilovan has said, Fulham were pretty poor against Arsenal and I'll also be on Everton against a woeful looking West Brom side.

I took Early bet on Leeds -0.75 @ 1.95  
I hope they play same way they did against Liverpool 

Leeds v Fulham
        Watched most of the first weekends games and Fulham definitely stood out as being poor.
        Arsenal are not a great away team, but it was a stroll in the park for them. Fulham barely created a chance. They look out of their league at the moment.

        Leeds were very good against Liverpool, and slightly unlucky. They ran out of steam towards the end of the game.
        They should have way too much for a limited Fulham side. I would expect goals in this game, as Leeds look very open at the back, but show some style and skill going forward. It won't be dull!

        Prediction : Leeds home win and over 2.5 goals : Odds 2.63
 

@Gray306 ?????  true mate 

Manchester United win @ 2.20
Bournmouth win @ 2.90
Brighton win @ 3.10
50% treble

Paderborn - Koln, Over 2.5, 1.53
Hertha Berlin - Werder, Over 2.5, 1.90
Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht, Over 2.5, 1.53

Treble. Half bank!
 

Can please join the competition?

Under/Over 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

 

 

 

Interested. Thanks

@StevieDay1983 I actually thought the price on Leicester was a bit too short considering their form has been average for quite some time now.  I'd say if Vardy scores then Leicester will win as their downturn in form has coincided with his goal drought so maybe combine your bet for a bigger price?
Saying that, i'm going against you to side with Norwich +1 at evens as I don't think this will be as easy for Leicester as the prices imply.  Norwich have done well against the bigger teams at home (the famous Man City win, plus draws with spurs and arsenal), and they did give Liverpool a pretty good game in their last home game.  
 

Just can't seem to get Halifax right. Had them in November to win at Morecambe in the FA Cup...they drew 0-0 to force a replay...and had them in the league to win at Gateshead during Christmas week, but they could only get a 1-1 draw. In between, I had them to draw away at Barrow in the FA Trophy, but they get an 88' goal to win 1-2.
I was all set to take draw in today's replay at Solihull, but with the odds now having dropped below 4.00, the proper play is outright win. I will be waiting until close to kick to decide which of these I'll take.

whats with all the complications lately? just looking at some statistics you can tell what is what, i don't wanna sound arrogant or cocky but why bother with low end of the table? it's completely random and basically anything can happen. For that matter upper league table offers some nice fixtures for overs. Assuming Spurs will play poorly based of 1 cup match that they won? come on. Spurs racked 14 goals in previous 4 matches. Since Sol UTD in last 5 matches racked 16 goals. Both have tendency to concieve a goal and both average 1,5+ goals per game. Relying on h2h is irrelevant at this point because Man U's play style is different. Spurs will want to welcome this new attacking crazyness and counter of it. Last meeting was 0:3 at the ol' trafford, i bet Utd will want to get points here, i doubt they'll be happy with a draw especially if gunners botch the match vs west ham. Spurs also can afford to drop points.
Like i said 2nd game i liked was Pool to win to nil (at the time i said it it was at 2.10, now it's 1.95, I expect to drop to 1.9 come match day). pool on avg concedes 0,64 goals per game when away (that % went slightly up because of city matchup). I can't see Brighton scoring. Liverpool control the match start to finish. Win 0:1 or 0:2 most probable.
Arsenal - Westham
Goals goals goals. Previous matches between West Ham United and Arsenal have averaged 3.64 goals while BTTS has happened 64% of the time  Arsenal hasn't kept a clean sheet when away this season on avg conceding 2,1 goals while scoring 2,2 (when away). Ham scores 1,5 goals on avg at home while conceding 1,6 goals. Kept clean sheet 9% of the time, arsenal 0%. Super easy bet here.
Last but not least
Everton - Bournemouth
The teams that usually cuck me in this one, but again i can't predict a winner in this one because both teams are hot/cold at times. Just looking at h2h:
Previous matches between Everton and AFC Bournemouth have averaged 3.88 goals while BTTS has happened 75% of the time.  This season Bournemouth on avg scores 1,2 goals when away and concedes 2,3 goals. Everton at home scores 1,64 goals and concedes 1,45 goals. Both have kept clean sheets in 20% range while failing to score is also low. (9% Eve). So again I go for goals.
Ty and good night

Finally joined the forum after a year of reading your thoughts.Very difficult games this week coming from the FA cup matches..West Ham Arsenal is a no bet result for me.Once bookies give Arsenal these high odds away they rarely come back with anything.Should be a BTTS match though.
I love the Cardiff Huddersfield match.Home team for a DNB.
The rest i will pass....

Burnley game ref is notorious for a Red Card. It's also been marked by bookies on their jackpot lists as the first game. They look good to win on paper. Me I will pass on this and drink a beer. Just saying

Scnuthorpe vs Coventry. Ov 2.5  @ 2.00
Shrewsbury vs Stoke  BTTS @ 1.80
Accrington  Win @ 2.40
10pts Triple

I am playing on Friday in Levante - Girona Over 2.5, in Espanyol - Leganes Under 2.5...
Saturday and Sunday I havent analysed yet but I fancy Betis win, Valencia not to lose at Alaves, Real Madrid game over 2.5, Eibar - Villareal BTTS and Sevilla DNB...
Sorry I don't have much time to write previews...but who reads those anyways
GL!

Frustrating start, Hull (6-0), Portsmouth (2-1) being the only winner ... +5.52pts
Sheff Utd (3-0), Peterboro' (0-2) .. -2pts
A.Villa (2-2), M.K.Dons (6-0) .. -2pts
Arsenal (3-1), Solihull (2-2) .. -3pts
Daily total ... -1.48pts
Start Bank = 100pts ........... Bank stands at 98.52pts

Juventus V Sampdoria
Sampdoria +1.75 AH @ 2.00 Matchbook
We all know that Juventus are the beasts of the division and a home record of 8,1,0 is nothing to be sneered at. Despite this I feel the markets are loving the home side way too much in this situation.
Sampdoria are bang in form and haven't lost a competitive match since early November. They've won 4 out of their last 5 league games and Marco Giampaolo's side has both the quality and spirit level to make life difficult for Juventus here.
Key goal metrics only give Juventus a marginal advantage heading into this contest while the ELO ratings have actually begun to tip in Sampdoria's favour.
Juventus are rightly favourites for this game but the prices are a little wild when you consider the data. In my view it's pretty complacent to think Juventus can easily overcome such a big asian line against a decent Sampdoria outfit. 
Sampdoria +1.5 AH or +1.75 AH seems to be the value play here.

New Divisions
New divisions have been created in order of your finishing total in the last mini-season.
Anyone wanting to join up can add themselves to Division 7 as long as it is before the Week 1 deadline on December 29th.

 

 

 

 

All of the tables are now complete and we can confirm the following prize winners
Can all winners send their PayPal details along with PL name and what prize you are claiming to;
[email protected]
Prizes need to be claimed within 7 days and payment will follow as soon as everyone has done so as it is all done in one lump.
Mug/Pen winners obviously also need to send their home address as well.
Many thanks for supporting the competition and we all start with a clean slate on the 29th. New divisions according to your finishing totals will follow asap.
In the meantime have a good Christmas.

 
Overall Top 3
Wins a PL Mug @ Pen Set
(Glavintoby already won a set last time so passes on to 4th place.)
 
1. @Betmakavely
2. @Nosey-P
3. @Valiant Thor
 
Div 1:  £75 Glavintoby £45 Silver Fox £25 Blackfritz
Div 2: £60 Bagzi £40 Nick Jones £20 Withers82
Div 3: £50 Puntermk £30 Claretkid78 £20 Wivz03
Div 4: £40 Thegeneral55 £25 Yanko79 £15 Bobsyerunkle
Div 5: £30 NoseyP £20 Redno2009 £10 Valverde
Div 6: £25 YNWA10 £15 Cauncie £10 WoodysWay
Div 7: £20 Betmakavely £15 Valiant Thor £10 Alex Bird
 

Cardiff vs Manchester United
I could probably write a 10,000 word presentation on this game with everything that has been going on and said on the forum already but I'll try to keep it brief. It's Cardiff versus Manchester United at the Cardiff City Stadium for this 5:30pm kick-off on Saturday and it will be United's first game with interim manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in charge returning to his former club.
Cardiff are a tough team to beat at home in the Premier League. It's now 4 wins from their last 5 league games at the Cardiff City Stadium. It's a run of home form that is up there with the best teams in the league. This is another tough encounter for the Bluebirds as Neil Warnock's men welcome what could potentially be a rejuvenated United side under Solskjaer.
Manchester United are a mess right now. Jose Mourinho's sacking was expected but still slightly surprising given his past credentials, the multi-million pound compensation required, and the fact the side was still in the Champions League and battling for a top four spot.
Problems run deep at the club though. Many are blaming the board. Mourinho and the players obviously need to shoulder some of the blame but with Mourinho gone I feel like the players are now freed of their shackles. He really didn't get the best out of the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Marcus Rashford, Juan Mata, Anthony Martial, and Paul Pogba. Solskjaer might show the willingness to let them express themselves more and that's potentially concerning for me to consider as a Cardiff fan.
Warnock has never managed to beat United during his previous 7 matches against United. That has consisted of 6 defeats and 1 draw. I just think the new manager bounce will be a factor for United and even though it remains to be seen if Solskjaer will do the job over the next 6 months or not, I am anticipating United to start well under his tenure.
We'll be lucky to keep them to within a goal. If we kill the game then we stand a chance but I think too many people on the pitch and off it have a point to prove for the Red Devils. A fair percentage of Cardiff fans think Solskjaer is incompetent and United will be there for the taking. I think they'll be in for a huge shock.
Manchester United HT/FT @ 2.50 with BetVictor
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.83 with MarathonBet