MkayaGG

FA Cup weekend was rather profitable backed up with FCUM winning at a big price in the league and then Tuesday night it was 2 from 2 with Southport and Dartford both winning. Hopefully that will continue on Saturday and I have 7 bets this weekend.
Chesterfield v Havant & Waterlooville (National League)
I was all set to be all over Harrogate at odds against, but the game has been called off as Maidenhead have too many players called up for international duty. The rest of the fixtures look tricky from a punting point of view, but I have to carry on with my backing Chesterfield to draw system. 3 matches on the bounce it has paid off now and I also had the 1-1 draw covered when they played Halifax a few weeks ago. They have drawn 8 of their last 10 league games and 6 of those draws have been 1-1. When you chuck in the FA Cup game last week which was also a 1-1 draw I am kicking myself for not putting that up for the last 3 weeks! However we can't be too greedy and I will just stick with the draw again. To be honest it does look like a winnable game for the home side, but Havant had last weekend off so they will be fresh and ready and they have managed to win their last 2 games so I am backing the draw again.
Dulwich v Oxford City (National League South) I was surprised that Dulwich lost to Truro last Sunday although it has to be said that Truro do seem to be improving and that made it 4 games unbeaten for them in the league. As for Dulwich that was the 2nd disappointing result in a row as they also blew a 2 goal lead against Weston last Tuesday. They are 4 games unbeaten at home though and I think it is worth opposing Oxford City again. Dartford should have been well out of sight before Oxford made it 3-2 on Tuesday night such was their dominance especially in the 1st half. By all accounts the fact Oxford had been involved in such a tough game at Tranmere 3 days prior showed. Here the focus will surely be on the replay especially as it is on BT Sport and Dulwich are more than good enough to make them pay.   Boston v Southport (National League North) I have to continue backing Southport after 3 superb results now as I get the feeling they are finally showing the reason I backed them ante-post for the title. Granted beating Hereford at the moment is nothing special, but they put the game to bed with ease and I always like it when a team does that whatever the opponents. It is important to try and find teams who are playing better than their league position suggests as the bookies will always price those sides up bigger than they should as they have here. Boston were another one of my ante-post tips for the title and they are having a solid season only being 6 points off the lead, but in their last 5 league games they have only beaten Hereford and as things stand Southport are looking in better form at the moment.   Darlington v Hereford (National League North) For the 3rd game running I have to oppose Hereford. Yes they went down to 10 men on Tuesday night, but they were never really in the game and this is a really tough match for them given how long it has been since they won a league game. The home side meanwhile are unbeaten in 5 league games and have only lost one of their last 8. They have drawn their last 3, but their last two games have been against Bradford and Guiseley so they would have been harder games than this. Hereford have only won one away game all season and Darlington have had a couple of weeks without a league game so should be raring to go against a team low on confidence.   FCUM v AFC Telford (National League North) The home side have yet to win at home, but surely that will change soon given they have shown massive improvement of late. They are now unbeaten in 5 league games and have scored 3 in their last two. Now Telford will be tougher opponents than Blyth or Hereford and are obviously having a good season, but I think FCUM certainly offer value at over 2/1 given like Southport they are clearly playing better than their league position suggests.   Barwell v Kings Lynn (Evo-Stik South Central) Barwell cost us big time a couple of weeks ago when they conceded a penalty in injury time against Bedford and hopefully they won't cost us this time as I think Kings Lynn look a cracking bet. Even before Ian Culverhouse came back as manager they were improving after a tricky start to the season as they are unbeaten in 7 league games, but they have comfortably won both games since he came back. Given how good they were under him last season I am expecting them to be a major force in the division and possibly even push for the title as they are only 9 points behind at the moment. They are a better side than their hosts and after that draw against Bedford they have still only won once at home this season.   Reddtich v Lowestoft (Evo-Stik South Central) I opposed Redditch a few weeks ago against Biggleswade which was a winning bet, but having wondered if their new manger would improve them or not given their seemed to be plenty of issues I certainly got that wrong. I didn't think he would, but he has as they then won their next 4 league games.They did lose 4-0 to Stourbridge on Tuesday night to break that run, but then Stourbridge are 2nd in the table and Lowestoft are certainly no Stourbridge. They have only picked up 1 point in their last 7 league games and have only won once away from home picking up just one other point. Redditch certainly look in much better shape and can bounce straight back from the Stourbridge defeat.   Chesterfield v Havant 1pt draw @ 5/2 with Bet365 Dulwich 1pt @ 61/50 with Marathon Southport 2pts@ 68/25 with Marathon Darlington 2pts @ 11/10 with Paddy Power and Betway FCUM 1pt @ 21/10 with Paddy Power Kings Lynn 2.5pts @ 71/50 with Marathon Redditch 2pts  @ 7/5 with BetVictor

Albania vs Scotland
These are dark times for Scottish football so let's try and cheer our British neighbours up with some optimistic betting. Albania host Scotland in this 7:45pm kick-off tomorrow night at the Stadiumi Loro Borici in Shkoder. The losing side faces the prospect of relegation to League D.
Albania qualified for the 2016 European Championship to make their debut at a major international football tournament. Unfortunately, they couldn't follow up that success by qualifying for the 2018 World Cup. The 2018/19 UEFA Nations League has not gone overly positively for them either with just 1 win from their 3 matches so far.
Scotland are really struggling. It is now over 20 years since they last appeared at a major international tournament. Alex McLeish is under fire for his side's woeful performances in recent months and his team have just a single win in this UEFA Nations League group. That was the home game against Albania.
The main issue for Scotland when playing away is a lack of goals. They have lost 4 of their last 5 away matches failing to score. Combine that with Albania's record of scoring just 2 goals in their last 7 matches and we could be set for a fairly dour affair tomorrow evening.
I want to back Scotland to get the win but the performance against Israel was so appalling that it makes you wonder how they can improve enough under the same head coach. Just 2 wins in their last 10 matches is a poor record and team morale is shot. How can we have confidence in them to win?
Apologies to my Scottish friends on this board but I can't see Scotland getting much from this game. A draw is perhaps the best they can hope for but with McLeish in charge I could very well see them losing this game and sacking McLeish shortly after. He was a shocking appointment to begin with and until he's removed from his position I can't see Scotland doing much. Especially away from home.
Albania Draw No Bet @ 2.28 with MarathonBet
Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 2.63 with Betfred

Returns : 11.20

VfL Bochum vs Darmstadt 
Both have 17 points and are close in the standings. In the H2H the stats are for Bochum and they havent lost in their last 4 games. So, I'll go with them @ 2.070 with pinnacle. 

The most commercial match of the day in Europe is held in Bundesliga and is nothing more than Dortmund's derby with Bayern. Borussia has a four-point difference from her current opponent and is a great opportunity for her to go to +7 the distance to stop the tournament. On the other hand, the Bavarians with a victory drop to -1 and everything starts from scratch.
BORUSSIA DORTMUND vs FC BAYERN MUNICH @@ Ah BORUSSIA DORTMUND, odds 2.20

Hampton and Richmond vs Oldham
OK, so it's been a mixed bag this week with some stunning picks from you lot and some picks where the betting Gods weren't quite playing fair but we've still got one more game to go! It's National League South team Hampton and Richmond welcoming League Two outfit Oldham to the Beveree Stadium for this 7:45pm kick-off.
It's been a relatively quiet FA Cup 1st Round in terms of giant-killings. We've seen the odd scalp but far from the mass haul of upsets we often see every year. Can Hampton and Richmond write their name into FA Cup immortality tonight? Gary McCann's men haven't conceded a goal in their previous two qualification games in this competition after wins against Burgess Hill and AFC Hornchurch. It's not quite the same story in the league with the Beavers conceding 21 goals in 15 league games. They might be in 16th place but they are 10 points clear of relegation and only 5 points off the play-off positions.
No doubt, Oldham will not be looking forward to a game they will be expected to win but could come out on the wrong side of an FA Cup romance story. Frankie Bunn's team are mid-table mediocrity in 15th place in League Two. It's been a far from thrilling season but the threat of relegation is 10 points away and the play-offs are just 7 points away. However, a shock loss here could have detrimental consequences on their morale and league form.
Hampton and Richmond hardly have an intimidating record at home. They have lost 57% of their home matches this season already. They have also conceded two or more goals in their last three competitive games. Throw in the fact that Oldham have kept a clean sheet in over two thirds of their away games and it starts to feel like we might not see an upset here.
Still, I'm always keen to have a punt on the underdog. It's a weakness of mine when it comes to this competition. However, on this occasion, I just don't think the odds are appealing enough. Oldham are a fair price to win outright considering their league status so I'm going to be a bit boring and back them to get the win here.
Oldham to Win @ 1.67 with Boylesports
BTTS @ 1.80 with Bet365

It's Saturday so can mean only one thing, A long winded write up by me,  
 
Bournemouth 2 United 2. Good job I checked this before posting as it said Bournemouth 2 United 32!!!!, I was torn between 2 each or a 3-2 away win, however I have settled for a score draw, United will accept that despite all of Jose's ramblings this week.  . OVER 3.5 GOALS 19/10 UNIBET & 888sport
 
Cardiff 2 Leicester 3. This will be quite an emotional day and often the opposition get forgotten about but the occasion can get to both with football almost taking a back seat, and on such occasions football brings people together and I am sure Cardiff will do a great job in making it a fitting occasion, I see Leicester really wanting to do a good job and Cardiff attacking too, with Leicester nicking it with the odd goal in 5, I know that is already 9 goals predicted in 2 games. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 5/6  BETSTARS
 
Everton 2 Brighton 1. I think Everton will win this despite Brighton giving it a good go, I think this will be quite an open game with a bit of free flowing attacking football, I like Brighton and I like Chris Hughton, an honest manager hardly ever blames anyone if his team loses but I can't let that cloud my judgement so I am sticking with a narrow home win. 2-1 Everton 8/1 bet365, BETVICTOR, BETSTARS. 1OBET & SportPesa
 
Newcastle 2 Watford 0. What have I just written??? Newcastle have got to win at some point, and I know Watford seem to have found their feet again, but I am sticking with the home win just because they have to win at some point, mad logic I must admot but sometimes it pays off. Newcastle to win 9/5 UNIBET & BETVICTOR
 
West Ham 1 Burnley 0. Found this one a little tricky for some reason, probably because of Burnleys hammering last week, I think West Ham have found some kind of Rhythm and I expect a narrow victory at home for them in this one. UNDER 1.5 GOALS 13/5 BETFAIR
 
Arsenal 1 Liverpool 2. I have to be honest and say I rolled the dice on this one so could of ended up with 6-4 but honestly this is what the dice threw up a 2-1 away win, Arsenal are in fine form and Liverpool love to attack, many saying this is Liverpools first real test this season, I think Liverpool will just have a little to much in attack for the Gunners, and the dice agree . OVER 2.5 GOALS 4/7 betfair.
 
Wolves 1 Spurs 3. It,s not that I think the wheels have fallen off at Wolves, they haven't and I think they will be fine this season, but nearly every promoted team hits a patch of form that disturbs them and in most cases relegates them, but I don't see the relegation part for Wolves, However I see a strong Spurs performance and a comfy win, Spurs seem to be just getting on with it this year. 3-1 SPURS 20/1 bet365
 
City 5 Southampton 0. I have been a little gentle where City have been concerned in recent weeks, but again Southampton are poor and I see City giving them a good hiding here and then serious questions being asked of Mark Hughes who for me is a bit of a strange one, always seems to get a Job. OVER 4.5 GOALS 15/8 betfair & PADDYPOWER 
 
Chelsea 3 Palace 1. Chelsea have hit the ground running with their new manager and will be part of an unusual 3 horse premier league title race, they are playing a nice style of football and a few players seem to be settling in nicely, and I see a comfortable win here for the Blues. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 1/1 bet365, WilliamHill, BETFRED & betway
 
Huddersfield 2 Fulham 1. AAAAAAAHHH another hair puller, how do you predict this, Huddersfield have had a tough start with their fixtures but I think they will come good and record their first win of the campaign here with a nervy narrow win over fellow straggler's Fulham, I am going to be bold and say an injury time winner for the home side  . Huddersfield to win 11/8 BETVICTOR, UNIBET & betway
 
Hope these have been of amusement and more importantly help with any punts you may be taking. enjoy your weekend people I actually have a weekend off so it is beer o'clock for me   

Hopefully I can continue the good form so far this month on Tuesday night and I have 3 bets in the Bostik Premier.
Folkestone v Carshalton
The home side had a superb season last time around and were in the title race until late on. I did think it might be a one off and although they started fairly well they have not been in great form in recent weeks. They have only won once in their last 7 games, in fairness that was a good win over 4th place Bognor, and have lost 5 of them including on Saturday when they lost 2-0 to Lewes. Carshalton have won back to back games and they have a fair chance of being able to make it 3 I think. In my view there isn't a great deal between these two sides and Marathon go a shade over 2/1 on an away win and that is just big enough for me to play.
Potters Bar Town v Bishops Stortford
The away side are turning into a bit of a surprise package and having started poorly they are in a rich vein of form at the moment. They are unbeaten in 6 and that includes a win at the league leaders Tonbridge and they were impressive in beating Corinthian-Casuals 3-0 on Saturday. Potters Bar aren't doing too badly after gaining promotion last season, but they won their first two games and have only managed to win 2 of their following 10. It is hard to see how the away team have been priced up at 2/1 for this as the Essex side have plenty of confidence at the moment and they look a fair bet here.
Whitehawk v Lewes
The home side were one of the ante-post favs for this league, but I believed that with Steve King leaving they would have no chance and that is exactly how it has turned out. They have only won twice all season and are just two points away from the relegation zone. It is also worth highlighting that their two wins this season have been against the bottom two sides in the division Harlow and Burgess Hill. They lost 6-0 on Saturday at Enfield. Lewes on the other-hand are having a good season and will fancy themselves to be in the play-off hunt. They have only conceded 3 times on the road this season and their only two defeats after their opening day loss have been by 1 goal, which included a 7 goal thriller against a good side in Worthing. As mentioned above they had another good win at the weekend over Folkestone and they will fancy themselves to win this. Marathon go 59/50 about an away win.
Carshalton 1pt @101/50 with Marathon
Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 2/1 with Marathon
Lewes 1pt @ 59/50 with Marathon

First of all I agree with @sajtion that this is a really poor card for betting. First week back from international breaks can be tough but I would say this is the worst EPL card I have seen so far this season.
With regards to the early game, Chelsea are not a whole goal better than Man U in terms of attacking metrics. If you look at the ELO ratings you can see even less disparity. The big problem is Utd's defence which has been shoddy all season, board should have backed Mourinho in the summer with defensive aquisitions. There are also fitness doubts over some important defensive players for Utd this weekend.
Despite this, I do think Utd on +1 AH line is worth a small punt @ 1.7 or above. It's a highly speculative play given the circumstances but to get them with a whole goal advantage does give us a nice buffer in my view. Not quite a shot to nothing as Utd are always capable of imploding in the current climate but as others have said they are also capable of exposing Chelsea's vulnerabilities here.
Manchester Utd +1.0 AH @ 1.72 Betvictor > LOW STAKE!!!

Hello All
below is the method I use for selecting Over 2.5 goals
Most punters look at average goals per game and if the game average is over 2.5  for both home and away teams then it ma be considered as a selection
My approach is similar but I rank the teams (see below snip from Excel)
the below table (League 1) shows Avg.H Goals This is the average for goals scored in game for Home Team Home matches only
so for example (Home games only) Portsmouth Goals for 9 Goals against 2 total =11 divide by number of home games played 4 gives 2.75 The ranking for Portsmouth (Rank G.H) is 9
Portsmouth Goals for home (Avg.GFH) is 2.25 with a ranking of 1 
I add the 2 ranking figures together Portsmouth = 10
I do the same for the away Team so for Wycombe Rank Goals Away (Rank G.A)=3 Rank Goals for Away (Rank GFA)=12 add them together giving a total of 15 for Wycombe
I then add the I then add the home ranking to the away ranking Total 25 for this game
The same is done for All Games in League ( see Lower snip from Excel)


How do I select from this? ( These games are for League 1 Sat 22nd)
I only bet if the home team has played 4 or more games at home and the away team has played 4 or more games away
I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)
I now have a total of 6 games to consider. I now find the lowest Total ranking and if this is one of the 6 games then it becomes the selection for over 2.5 goals
My selection for Sat League 1 is Gillingham v Peterbrough over 2.5 goals
I do this for 4 leagues normally Premiership,Championship,League 1 and league 2
and My bet is 4 trebles and a 4 timer
Its quite simple to set up in Excel if you want to try
 

Hi Everybody,
 
 
Osmanlispor - Sivasspor = Over 2.5
Both team are struggling to adapting the season. They play same level of football, it is the only clear thing i can see about this much is going to be more score because of unstable defences.
 
 
TRABZONSPOR  V  MEDİPOL BASAKSEHIR     Both Team Score
 Trabzon has very talented players on scoring side of pitch and they are quite good on wing attakings but in the past 4 games midfield mistakes burn them a lot, new transfer Sosa would bring some quality to the team. He is familiar to the Super lig from his Besiktas history and he is pretty good on secure passing and remaning the positions which Trabzon was failing. 
In my opinion Basaksehir playing the most quality football  currently in Super Lig but their subs seems not in enough quality to carry team in both side eurocup and superlig.  
Both Team score seems qiute secure betting but you can also try over 2,5