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artichoke

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  1. Like
    artichoke got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Euro 2020 Qualifier Predictions > Mar 21st - 26th   
    One bet for me tonight : 
    Cyprus vs Belgium : Belgium -1.5 AH @ 1.4
    Sounds to me like printing money. Belgium isn't exactly the kind of team to hold back and be happy with 1-0 wins, as their records can testify. Minus Boyata, Belgium is playing with the same players that won against Russia 3-1 a few days ago. The game will take place in Cyprus, whose time zone and climate (at this time of the year, at least) isn't that different from Belgium. Belgium to win to nil  @ 1.5 sounds also fine, though stupid GK mistake can happen (as it did against Russia), so i'll stick with 1.4. 
  2. Like
    artichoke got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in UEFA Nations League Predictions > Oct 11th - 17th   
    Switzerland v Iceland
    Switzerland to win @ 1.75 seems decent. Switzerland was impressive against Belgium, but i don't think Iceland is going to take another 6-0 again. More like a 2 goals diff win. Small to medium stake.

    Spain v England
    Where i'm from, Spain to win is @ 1.55 which is a bit too low for my taste. I think the game is going to be tighter than what the odds implies and if i'm proven right i might place a live bet on this. 

    France v Germany
    I think France is a vastly superior team in every aspects, but these french guys are pretty lazy when the stakes are low. Though Deschamps said he wanted to go to the final round, and he usually get what he want from his players...
    The very worst that can happen for France here is another draw, but France to win @ 1.65 is a bit low here imo. There is a good chance that the first half will be closed and that France odds will go as far as ~2 in game. 

    Re : long-term bet on the group phase : 
    Apparently combining Belgium/Portugal/any others teams to finish first isn't allowed at my bookies since these outcomes are seen as not independents (kinda bs but whatever), so i ended up just putting money on Portugal @ 1.5 which is looking good so far. 
  3. Like
    artichoke got a reaction from yossa6133 in UEFA Nations League Predictions > Oct 11th - 17th   
    Switzerland v Iceland
    Switzerland to win @ 1.75 seems decent. Switzerland was impressive against Belgium, but i don't think Iceland is going to take another 6-0 again. More like a 2 goals diff win. Small to medium stake.

    Spain v England
    Where i'm from, Spain to win is @ 1.55 which is a bit too low for my taste. I think the game is going to be tighter than what the odds implies and if i'm proven right i might place a live bet on this. 

    France v Germany
    I think France is a vastly superior team in every aspects, but these french guys are pretty lazy when the stakes are low. Though Deschamps said he wanted to go to the final round, and he usually get what he want from his players...
    The very worst that can happen for France here is another draw, but France to win @ 1.65 is a bit low here imo. There is a good chance that the first half will be closed and that France odds will go as far as ~2 in game. 

    Re : long-term bet on the group phase : 
    Apparently combining Belgium/Portugal/any others teams to finish first isn't allowed at my bookies since these outcomes are seen as not independents (kinda bs but whatever), so i ended up just putting money on Portugal @ 1.5 which is looking good so far. 
  4. Like
    artichoke got a reaction from yossa6133 in UEFA Nations League Predictions > Oct 11th - 17th   
    My picks so far, first twos are the bigger bets : 

    First, Belgium and Portugal to finish first of their group is priced at 1.3 and 1.5 respectively, which makes for a nice double of 1.95, given that there is a big gap between these teams and their group, it would be a shame not to take it. You can add France as well for a tasty 2.7 triple, but 1.9 is good enough for me. Results in a month, obviously place it before thursday evening. 

    Poland v Portugal
    Woop-di-doo, Portugal bringing the value again. Portugal to win at 2.45 is very generous. I hope i'm not selling Poland short here, i don't think i've seen them play recently, but their past record isn't really great... and Portugal blew away Italy, though with their lack of finishing game, you can't really see it on the scoreline. But Portugal is IMO in another league and should win comfortably. I might go for a bigger stake on the DNB here at 1.65 because of the aforementioned finishing problem. 

    Belarus v Luxembourg
    I haven't see these teams plays, and i don't usually bet on numbers, but Luxembourg just won 4-0 against Moldava when Belarus tied against them. So i think that you can do worse than putting a few quids on Luxembourg to win at 7.5. DNB at 3.25 is ok as well. Small stake. 
    Denmark v Ireland
    Another bet on numbers, but Denmark looked good defensively in the WC and looking at Ireland recent record i don't see them scoring a lot against the danish, so a small-to-medium stake on Denmark DNB @ 1.6 seems a decent choice. 

    Belgium v Switzerland
    Belgium should win this without much trouble but the odds aren't here... maybe Belgium -1.5 AH @ 2 but i don't know yet. 
  5. Like
    artichoke got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in UEFA Nations League Predictions > Oct 11th - 17th   
    My picks so far, first twos are the bigger bets : 

    First, Belgium and Portugal to finish first of their group is priced at 1.3 and 1.5 respectively, which makes for a nice double of 1.95, given that there is a big gap between these teams and their group, it would be a shame not to take it. You can add France as well for a tasty 2.7 triple, but 1.9 is good enough for me. Results in a month, obviously place it before thursday evening. 

    Poland v Portugal
    Woop-di-doo, Portugal bringing the value again. Portugal to win at 2.45 is very generous. I hope i'm not selling Poland short here, i don't think i've seen them play recently, but their past record isn't really great... and Portugal blew away Italy, though with their lack of finishing game, you can't really see it on the scoreline. But Portugal is IMO in another league and should win comfortably. I might go for a bigger stake on the DNB here at 1.65 because of the aforementioned finishing problem. 

    Belarus v Luxembourg
    I haven't see these teams plays, and i don't usually bet on numbers, but Luxembourg just won 4-0 against Moldava when Belarus tied against them. So i think that you can do worse than putting a few quids on Luxembourg to win at 7.5. DNB at 3.25 is ok as well. Small stake. 
    Denmark v Ireland
    Another bet on numbers, but Denmark looked good defensively in the WC and looking at Ireland recent record i don't see them scoring a lot against the danish, so a small-to-medium stake on Denmark DNB @ 1.6 seems a decent choice. 

    Belgium v Switzerland
    Belgium should win this without much trouble but the odds aren't here... maybe Belgium -1.5 AH @ 2 but i don't know yet. 
  6. Like
    artichoke got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in UEFA Nations League Predictions > Sep 6th - 11th   
    Re : Portugal v Italy 
    As expected Portugal absolutely dominated Italy on the technical side with nice build up and midfield game. Italy rarely managed to make 3 passes in a row. Though it doesn't show on the final score since Portugal seems to have trouble with finishing (the only point where the absence on Ronaldo can be noticed), at times it was quite funny (and frustrating) to see their forwards passing the ball like a hot potato at less than 15m of the goal and enough space to strike - as if they were afraid to...
    On the positive side for Italy, they got some fast wingers, which have been dangerous once in a while but that was it. 

    Re : Belgium vs Iceland
    The odds dropped since Iceland got 6-0'd by Switzerland, which is reveling the level of Iceland, even though IIRC four of their starters were missing. Now Belgium is @ 1.29 at Pinnacle (but lower for us French folks...), which IMO still makes for a decent ROI for a bet that's as sure as they come. 
    Belgium -1.5 AH @ 1.854 sounds also like a very reasonable bet. 
     
    I'm going to avoid this game, but maybe i'm underrating Spain. Spain is in search for a new identity, their style against England was very different, and for the better, with a lot more long balls and crossing. 
    But the gap between Spain and England was narrower than i thought, and i can't really tell to which extent Spain was controlling the game and doing just enough to win. They haven't dominated that much in the midfield and it was at some point quite messy on both sides. 
    IMO Croatia is stronger than England, and whereas there was value on Spa v Eng, i think Croatia here is being sold short (5.75), so no bet for me. It's going to be a fun game. 
  7. Thanks
    artichoke got a reaction from Xcout in UEFA Nations League Predictions > Sep 6th - 11th   
    Germany v France

    France traditionally doesn't plays too well in low stakes games. This time is particular though, it's the first game after the WC and i think that a win is psychologically important because they want to consolidate the work done during the cup. Germany is the shattered shadow of its former self and i really can't see how they can win this, no matter how much they want to start fresh. 

    Tactically, France packs a lot of punch and speed, with one of the strongest defense of the tournament, and the Germany we've seen was very slow, uninspired and uncoordinated. I expect at least a 2 goals difference win for France.

    The odds are generous for France, with a 2.75 for France win and a 1.8 DNB. The former is very tempting but i think that i will go for a France DNB here, just in case i've misread their motivations. 

    France win DNB : 1.8
     
  8. Like
    artichoke got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in UEFA Nations League Predictions > Sep 6th - 11th   
    Thanks

    Well, Fra v Ger was kind of disappointing, glad i've picked the DNB! Griezmann and Mbappe, the backbone of the attack, haven't seemed very interested in the game. 

    Gutted that i totally forgot about Turkey v Russia, a few days ago i was surprised to see Russia being sold short (Russia to win was @ about 5 IIRC) considering what they've done in the WC, but then i just forgot about it.

    For the forthcoming games i'm looking at : 

    Portugal v Italy
    Well Italy almost lost to Poland, which speaks for itself... and Portugal, in spite of an aging squad, is still a decent team. So Portugal @ 2.2 (winamax) seems like a decent odd to me. Even a DNB @ 1.45 is ok. This is probably going to be my bigger bet. 

    Belgium v Iceland
    There isn't a lot of value here, but those Belgian guys take almost every games seriously, as their record can testify... Iceland isn't that bad but there is a rather wide quality gap between the twos. 
    Belgium to win @ 1.45