Craig bluenose

5.20 Newmarket Assailant 20/1 bet365 EW

5.20 Newmarket Assailant 20/1 bet365 EW

3.20 Windsor Ghostlore 40/1 bet365 EW

1.45 Broadway Boy
2.20 Inthewaterside 
2.55 Mistergif
3.30 Pic D'Orhy
4.05 Arizona Cardinal
4.40 Kyntara
5.15 Afadil

2.20 Leopardstown My Mate Alfie 20/1 bet365 EW

Getupearly
15.00 Exeter
20/1 bet365
Each way

Jesmond Dawn
15.25 Catterick
40/1 bet365
Each way

3.45 Chepstow Lucky Lugger  100/1 Bet365 EW

Crescent Lake
15.30 Kempton
33/1 bet365
Each way

58 left in. 34 run and my horse who I backed at 66/1 now 12/1 is 35th on the list. Can't believe my luck. Just need 1 to drop out. I think the racing gods are trying to tell me something.😡

Cherry Pink
17.00 Dundalk
25/1 bet365
Each way

4.10 Doncaster Moon Over Miami 28/1 Bet365 EW

4.10 Doncaster Moon Over Miami 28/1 Bet365 EW

4.10 Doncaster Moon Over Miami 28/1 Bet365 EW

Thank you @foxinexile, you're right a lot of work does go into them and your kind words mean a lot

I am fortunate in that my financial background meant I had to use computers for much of my work. I remember back in 1981 when I was a trainee accountant at British Steel there was a shiny new PC in the corner of the room that everybody was scared of but I took the plunge and started to use it. In those days it was a twin floppy disk set up with the system disk in one side and the work disk in the other (512kb capacity, I used to hate the disk full message). Lotus123 was the spreadsheet of choice, I used to love that (especially writing macros) and it took me till the mid 2000s to ween myself off it and move to Excel.
Before I retired a few years ago I just used to bet on Saturdays, typing data from the Racing Post into my spreadsheets (I was too tight to subscribe to a data service).
Since being retired I have had more time (too much according to my wife) to analyse and test data and I am reasonably happy with the returns from my AW systems.
I would hope to have all my inital work done in the next couple of weeks before the flat season starts to kick in properly. Where it leads me we will see.

This reads a bit like how i first started (we have read the same book) but it didn't take me long to find so many flaws ( you have already found 1 🙂) so i went fishing 3 days and nights and gave it a shit load of thought came back and totally simplified it and it worked pretty well now here is something that might interest you and @Trotter when i applied the methodology to the aw racing something quirky happened namely that it became less good at predicting the winner but very good at predicting the places my best guess on this, it is because back then AW racing was very low grade piss poor horses running on just 3 tracks all different. Southwell (fibresand), lingfield and then Wolves all three tracks have changed since then and it has now become pretty close to turf (equivalent to good to firm) believe it or not so you can at a pinch switch between the two for the majority of Runners. I would be quite happy to have a face to face chat with you on messenger or some such to discuss things  but i will not put it on here it would be pointless and take up to much time.

Right, I'm diving straight into the deep end !
Be gentle with me, I'm an absolute beginner at this.
I was going to concentrate on the all weather but as @Trotter says, we are now probably past the peak season for the AW.
After rereading some of Nick Mordin's work he does state that the racing post standard times are valuable but compiling your own average times would produce more accurate figures. So, in for a penny, in for a pound.
I will start with Ascot (purely based on the alphabet).
I have taken data for 2022 (I am going to use 2023 as test data). For each race I have listed the date, class, distance and winning time. Most of this data I have been able to download automatically.
 1. Convert the data into seconds per mile. This shows the the fastest time was in a 5 furlongs sprint and the slowest time in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over nearly 2 miles 6 furlongs. Logical so far.
2. Calculate the average time for each distance. 
2. Calculate the average winning time by distance and by class. So as an example for 6 furlongs there were 8 races at class 1 with an average time of 73.73 seconds, class 2 was 74.03 seconds and class 3 was 75.13 seconds. Convert these into seconds per mile.
3. For each race subtract the winning time from the average for that distance and class.
4. Calculate the average for that meeting. This is the going allowance for that meeting. The highest adjustment (1.53 secs / mile) was in June when the going was good to firm, the lowest adjustment (-2.85 secs / mile) was in October when the going was good to soft.
I disagree to a certain extent with Mr Mordin at this stage, he takes a subjective view of each meeting, in an example of a 6 race meeting he excludes one race because it was "probably won by an exceptional horse" and for 2 others he excludes them because he would "guess that they were slow-run affairs". That leaves him with just three races to calculate the going allowance.
5. Subtract the going allowance from the winning time.
6. Subtract the adjusted winning time from the average winning time for that distance. The highest figure was for Pyledriver in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth stakes. Intuitively this feels right. The winning time was 149.49 secs (100.00 secs / mile), the average winning time for that distance is 102.62 secs / mile. The going adjustment for that meeting was -0.10 secs / mile, giving Pyledriver a rating of +2.72. The lowest rating was Oh This Is Us in a class 3 classified stakes with a rating of -3.87.
7. Convert the ratings to a scale. Not strictly necessary but conceptually better. The top rated horse could be given a rating of 140 and the lowest 0, possibly as a comparative to the BHB official ratings.
8. Calculate the ratings for the remaining horses in each race. I will use Nick Mordin's assumption that every fifth of a second is counted as one length.
 
So there it is, my starter for ten. It seems logical but I may be missing something. The next step is to calculate these numbers going back a number of years for Ascot and also for all other courses. Time consuming but doable using Excel. Hopefully the effort will be worth it.
 
 
 

You are correct that is exactly what he (Mordin) said.
Initially Mordin didn't believe in taking weight into account but he did eventually concede that he was wrong and weight should be included. (I have a different angle).
My experience with speed figures goes back over 35 years and has served me well.
I will write my thoughts down and post when i am sure i have said all i need to say on the subject.
One thing i will say before everyone starts hacking away at producing speed figures is this. Lets say for the sake of argument that speed figures are 30% accurate for graded races, then i can tell you that for handicaps it would be 8%. So if you want to maximise your time the pool of horses in the group/graded races is very manageable.
Bear in mind there are 14,000 horse in training (jumps and flat) just in Britain.
As to your AW suggestion i am guessing but there maybe more aw runners than turf nowadays which is a big number but serves you 12 months of the year.
 

6.15 Dundalk Natural Ruler 22/1 Bet365 EW

Winning double with Crawley postponed 

Northampton  X 3.50
Lincoln  X 3.10
Crawley  X 3.40
10 pts Treble 

-£6 yesterday 
day 59
+£131
@Carole-dawney bottom one

Day 54 
+£101
@Carole-dawney bottom one