Craig bluenose

Yarmouth 
3.55 - Who loves you baby 11/1
4.55 -   Han solo Berger 8/1
Catterick 
4.10 - Arbescato 7/1
Dundalk 
5.30 -  S' all good man 5/1
Lucky 15

I have now conducted a simulated exercise of my system results. There have been 776 unique selections which equates to 194 lucky 15s. The level stakes profit has been 4.74 points.
Obviously there is an element of luck in the bets as it depends how the winners fall. I have therefore conducted a simulation exercise where I have sorted the selections randomly many times (to be precise 1,600 times, in effect over 300,000 lucky 15s).
The results have settled on a ROI of 16% which is about where I would have expected based on my original calculations. On more than half the occasions the series of bets would have made a loss, this is the psychological downside of this bet, even with a profitable strategy at LSP the losing run could extend to many months, even when doing several lucky 15s a day.
The most profit in my simulation over the 194 L15s was £47,100 (to a £1 unit stake, i.e. £15 bet). The highest loss was £1,195.
Total profit over the 1,600 simulations was £755,724. Of this the 1 win bonus was £677,967 and the 15% accumulator bonus was £90,009. Without the bonuses the bet would have made a loss.
I think I've flogged this to death now to try and find a downside to this bet. The "only" downside is the long losing runs. I am pleased that both the theory and the practice seem to match.
So now on to the next stage. I will stick to my system selections and increase my unit stake to 20p. When my cumulative profit reaches a new high I will increase it by a further 10p.

2.30  Wolv Wadacre Gomez 8/1
3.20 Pont Fall In Love 6/1
5.05 Pont Paternoster Square 9/2
5.25 Wolves Catesby 7/1
1 x 0.10 L15 = poss ret 444.50 & 1 x 0.25 ew acca poss ret 660.77 = 1105.27

7.30 Brighton Runner Bean 25/1 bet365 EW

System selections

4.40 Ayr Cold Stare 11/2
4.50 Worc Racing Spirit 14/1
7.35 Chep Autumnal Breeze 7/2
8.40 chep Seraphia 6/1
1 x  0.10 L15 = poss ret  £527.90 and 0.25 ew acca = poss ret 776.64 = 1304.54 for 2 points

Worcester 
4:15 pm Joyful Kit 16/1 9th 
Chepstow
5:20 Ravens applause 10/1 2nd
Roscommon
7:08 Up and out 11/1
Ripon 
7:20 Saisons Diior

3.45 Worcester Sforza Castle 16/1bet365 EW

3.10 Sligo Red Ball Of Fire 7/2 (my PL Nap)
3.20 Chlm Distinguished Lady 7/2
3.55 Chlm Another Romance 6/1 (WB)
4.15 Ayr Chriszoff 4/1
1 x 0.10 L15 = poss ret 145.10 & 1 x 0.50 w Acca (Place pays 3 points yukk!) = 354.38 = poss ret 499.48 for 2 points
 

System selections