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keef75

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  1. Like
    keef75 reacted to shrewd. in xG BTTS system   
    Very promising start to the system. A full house 👍 Hope some of you followed me and got some joy too.
  2. Thanks
    keef75 got a reaction from thecurlyone1 in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    STANDINGS - Saturday, 12th October 2019
    Bets: 20
    Wins: 8
    Losses: 12
    Strike Rate: 40.00%

    BANKS
    Level Stakes: £984.17
    Square Root: £974.12
    1-3-2-6: £929.11
    Ratchet Sq Root: £968.98
    Not a lot I can say about today really!
  3. Like
    keef75 reacted to OddsPredictor in Odds Predictor   
    and for the record

  4. Like
    keef75 reacted to giraldi in Soccerbase stats   
    I hope we all agree that the value can be found in very small odds but, as in real life, to study the small things you need fine tools and a lot of patience, otherwise you destroy them. It is best to avoid small odds, in my opinion. Is best to avoid very "crowded places" as well. No value where are too many players.
    My first impression, as did my colleagues above, was that such a strategy simply applied cannot be mathematically winning.
     
    I checked all the matches in September considering the difference at least 10 places for the league positions, see picture no.1.
    157 out of 1635 met the condition and, as expected the results would have been not extraordinary as you can see in picture no.2


     
    Now, lets-s see what if will consider the places in the home table for home teams and in the away table for the away teams. We have some improvements already. Almost 7% profit for home win. It makes sense because we filtered teams with a good play at home vs teams with a bad play away (and too many players consider only overall teams performance)
    See pictures no.3 and no.4
     


     
    Now, let-s go a little bit further and check for  home teams placed between 1-5, so they are very strong at home, and the odds over 2.00 (the potential has not been seen yet by the majority of the payers). 
    See pictures no.5 and no.6


     
    The results are much better. See picture no 7.

     
    Of course, the results are based on aveage odds but I am sure you got the idea. Don-t play what another 99% play becasue it-s not possible to have 99% of players winners on long term.
     
    Finally,
    of course, I will not be a hypocrite and to say that I did not want to show off the possibilities of my program. 
     
  5. Like
    keef75 got a reaction from Torque in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    It's been a disappointing start but I'm not deterred by it.  Looking through the past results there are many losing streaks and it only takes a few wins to get back on track.  I will keep posting the selections and results.  There's nothing for tomorrow and it doesn't look like there are any possible selections for the following few days.
  6. Haha
    keef75 reacted to harry_rag in £500 per week BTTS System   
    Ok, I’ll have a bash. The answers are “no” and “no, it doesn’t”.
    What in that garbled nonsense of a post suggests the seeds of a promising strategy? Might as well say do 30 lines on the lottery every week. Best guess is it’s suggesting have 30 goes at calling btts for all 10 EPL games, unless it’s suggesting perms of some sort.
    As the OP hasn’t posted anything beyond those words of wisdom I’d treat the concept with a large pinch of salt and an enormous barge pole.
  7. Haha
    keef75 reacted to Tiffy in £500 per week BTTS System   
    Well you've made that confusing!
  8. Thanks
    keef75 got a reaction from thecurlyone1 in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    STANDINGS - Saturday, 21st September 2019
    Bets: 9
    Wins: 4
    Losses: 5
    Strike Rate: 44.44%

    BANKS
    Level Stakes: £980.33
    Square Root: £975.18
    1-3-2-6: £940.70
    Ratchet Sq Root: £970.66
  9. Like
    keef75 got a reaction from thecurlyone1 in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    POSSIBLE SELECTIONS - Saturday, 21st September 2019
    2:20 Newbury - DESERT ENCOUNTER or WALDSTERN or LAST LOOK
    No prices up yet, I'll update later in the week. This is the only selection for the weekend, a bit different to last weekend!
  10. Like
    keef75 got a reaction from Xtc12 in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    RESULTS - Friday, 13th September 2019
    2:10 Doncaster - FARZEEN 
    Drifted before the off and did not start favourite. NO BET.

    4:20 Doncaster - MOLATHAM 
    Backed in to EVS and started as favourite. BET and WINNER.
  11. Like
    keef75 got a reaction from Xtc12 in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    I'm going to struggle to keep up with all these tomorrow so here's a little more information about the staking plans.
    Base stake is always £10 and the base percentage is always 1%.
    Level Stakes
    This is the easiest one.  Simply £10 per bet.
    Square Root
    This is the base percentage of the current bank (1%) plus the square root of the difference between the current bank and the start bank (£1000) but only when the current bank is in profit.  For example if the current bank is £960 then the stake is £9.60 (1% of the current bank).  If the current bank is £1250 the stake is £12.50 + £15.81 (SQRT of 250)  = £28.31.  Stakes will increase and decrease as the bank goes up and down.
    1-3-2-6
    Again, using the base percentage of the current bank (1%) but a negative balance doesn't affect the progression through the multipliers. The first stake is 1% of the current bank. If the first selection loses we remain on 1%. After the first winning bet the stake becomes 3% of the current bank.  If this second selection loses we revert back to 1%.  If the second selection wins we then put 2% of the current bank on the third selection.  If the third selection loses we revert back to 1% but if it wins we reach our final step, 6% of the current bank.  If the fourth selection wins or loses we revert back to 1%.  This plan is aggressive and can only really be profitable where there are several winning runs of 4+ bets.
    Ratchet Square Root
    This is almost exactly the same as the Square Root plan above but with the exception that the stake does not decrease with the current balance (hence the 'ratchet').  For example, the first bet is 1% of the start bank (£10 from a bank of £1000).  If this wins at 4/1 the bank now stands at £1040.  The stake for the next selection will be £10.40 (1%) + £6.32 (SQRT 40) = £16.72.  If this loses the bank is down to £1023.28 but the stake remains at £16.72.
  12. Like
    keef75 reacted to Xtc12 in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    Don't worry about it @keef75 hope it goes well for you will be looking in for the excellent results.😁
  13. Thanks
    keef75 got a reaction from Xtc12 in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    After feeling bad about hijacking someone else's thread in this part of the forum I thought it would be best to start afresh.  I have something that I have been following for a while - a horse racing selection system.  I know, if you've seen one you've seen them all blah blah blah.  Well, prepare to be amazed haha!
    So far there have been 265 selections between January 2017 and today, mainly around the weekends and big festivals etc..  Here are some stats:
    Strike rate: 46%
    Longest losing run: 9
    Longest winning run: 6
    Average WIN SP: 2.76 (Betfair: 2.88)
    Point profit to level stakes: +71.76 (Betfair: +86.00)
     
    I'm not going to say too much about the selection process - there are 8 base rules - but I will post the selections here.  The only rule you need to know is that the selection MUST START CLEAR FAVOURITE so having access to Betfair or whatever is essential to be able to watch the prices just before the off.  There will be cases where it's too close to call - in these situations I scrap the selection.
    As for staking plans, this is where the aforementioned hijacked thread comes into play.  I am currently looking at some quite aggressive plans.
    I have the following figures for the first 264 selections (all from a starting bank of £1000):
    Level stakes (£10)
    26.84% ROI - Current Profit £708 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £2640
    32.23% ROI - Current Profit £850 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £2640
    Multiplier on loss (x1.2 previous stake)
    25.21% ROI - Current Profit £858 - Total Staked £3405
    Percentage bank (1% of bank always)
    25.79% ROI - Current Profit £969 - Total Staked £3758
    Square root (base stake of £10 plus the square root of the current bank minus start bank)
    23.79% ROI - Current Profit £3052 - Total Staked £12831
    1-3-2-6 Staking (based on a 1% stake)
    27.36% ROI - Current Profit £2803 - Total Staked £10246
    Ratchet (1% of current bank increasing over time but never reducing)
    26.02% ROI - Current Profit £1017 - Total Staked £3909
    Ratchet square root (combination of two above methods)
    24.88% ROI - Current Profit £4028 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £16193
    27.39% ROI - Current Profit £4873 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £17794

    Incidentally, selection 265 also won but I can't be bothered updating all those figures! 
    The plans I will be following on here are:
    Level stakes (for control purposes)
    Square root
    1-3-2-6
    Ratchet square root
    I'll be posting the selections below as I find them and also running totals.  I'll keep the above totals going but I'll also start from £1000 again for the purposes of this thread so we can all follow it together.  Sometimes there will be conditions for the bet such as 'only qualifies if there are at least 5 runners' or 'only qualifies if xxx is a NR' etc.  Finally I've attached a graph showing how some of the plans have performed.  Hopefully things will continue in a similar manner.
    Last thing to say... I'm posting these selections for information only and I can't take any responsibility for losses that might occur from errors or otherwise.  Past performance is not an indicator of future performance for any system!  Let's go!

  14. Like
    keef75 got a reaction from Zico10 in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    Thursday, 12th September 2019
    6:50 Chelmsford City - IBRAZ or SOLAR HEIGHTS
    Neither is currently clear favourite so we'll keep an eye on this.  If neither starts clear favourite this is a no-bet.
  15. Like
    keef75 got a reaction from harry_rag in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    After feeling bad about hijacking someone else's thread in this part of the forum I thought it would be best to start afresh.  I have something that I have been following for a while - a horse racing selection system.  I know, if you've seen one you've seen them all blah blah blah.  Well, prepare to be amazed haha!
    So far there have been 265 selections between January 2017 and today, mainly around the weekends and big festivals etc..  Here are some stats:
    Strike rate: 46%
    Longest losing run: 9
    Longest winning run: 6
    Average WIN SP: 2.76 (Betfair: 2.88)
    Point profit to level stakes: +71.76 (Betfair: +86.00)
     
    I'm not going to say too much about the selection process - there are 8 base rules - but I will post the selections here.  The only rule you need to know is that the selection MUST START CLEAR FAVOURITE so having access to Betfair or whatever is essential to be able to watch the prices just before the off.  There will be cases where it's too close to call - in these situations I scrap the selection.
    As for staking plans, this is where the aforementioned hijacked thread comes into play.  I am currently looking at some quite aggressive plans.
    I have the following figures for the first 264 selections (all from a starting bank of £1000):
    Level stakes (£10)
    26.84% ROI - Current Profit £708 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £2640
    32.23% ROI - Current Profit £850 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £2640
    Multiplier on loss (x1.2 previous stake)
    25.21% ROI - Current Profit £858 - Total Staked £3405
    Percentage bank (1% of bank always)
    25.79% ROI - Current Profit £969 - Total Staked £3758
    Square root (base stake of £10 plus the square root of the current bank minus start bank)
    23.79% ROI - Current Profit £3052 - Total Staked £12831
    1-3-2-6 Staking (based on a 1% stake)
    27.36% ROI - Current Profit £2803 - Total Staked £10246
    Ratchet (1% of current bank increasing over time but never reducing)
    26.02% ROI - Current Profit £1017 - Total Staked £3909
    Ratchet square root (combination of two above methods)
    24.88% ROI - Current Profit £4028 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £16193
    27.39% ROI - Current Profit £4873 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £17794

    Incidentally, selection 265 also won but I can't be bothered updating all those figures! 
    The plans I will be following on here are:
    Level stakes (for control purposes)
    Square root
    1-3-2-6
    Ratchet square root
    I'll be posting the selections below as I find them and also running totals.  I'll keep the above totals going but I'll also start from £1000 again for the purposes of this thread so we can all follow it together.  Sometimes there will be conditions for the bet such as 'only qualifies if there are at least 5 runners' or 'only qualifies if xxx is a NR' etc.  Finally I've attached a graph showing how some of the plans have performed.  Hopefully things will continue in a similar manner.
    Last thing to say... I'm posting these selections for information only and I can't take any responsibility for losses that might occur from errors or otherwise.  Past performance is not an indicator of future performance for any system!  Let's go!

  16. Thanks
    keef75 got a reaction from footysystems in Keef's Horsey Holy Grail   
    After feeling bad about hijacking someone else's thread in this part of the forum I thought it would be best to start afresh.  I have something that I have been following for a while - a horse racing selection system.  I know, if you've seen one you've seen them all blah blah blah.  Well, prepare to be amazed haha!
    So far there have been 265 selections between January 2017 and today, mainly around the weekends and big festivals etc..  Here are some stats:
    Strike rate: 46%
    Longest losing run: 9
    Longest winning run: 6
    Average WIN SP: 2.76 (Betfair: 2.88)
    Point profit to level stakes: +71.76 (Betfair: +86.00)
     
    I'm not going to say too much about the selection process - there are 8 base rules - but I will post the selections here.  The only rule you need to know is that the selection MUST START CLEAR FAVOURITE so having access to Betfair or whatever is essential to be able to watch the prices just before the off.  There will be cases where it's too close to call - in these situations I scrap the selection.
    As for staking plans, this is where the aforementioned hijacked thread comes into play.  I am currently looking at some quite aggressive plans.
    I have the following figures for the first 264 selections (all from a starting bank of £1000):
    Level stakes (£10)
    26.84% ROI - Current Profit £708 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £2640
    32.23% ROI - Current Profit £850 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £2640
    Multiplier on loss (x1.2 previous stake)
    25.21% ROI - Current Profit £858 - Total Staked £3405
    Percentage bank (1% of bank always)
    25.79% ROI - Current Profit £969 - Total Staked £3758
    Square root (base stake of £10 plus the square root of the current bank minus start bank)
    23.79% ROI - Current Profit £3052 - Total Staked £12831
    1-3-2-6 Staking (based on a 1% stake)
    27.36% ROI - Current Profit £2803 - Total Staked £10246
    Ratchet (1% of current bank increasing over time but never reducing)
    26.02% ROI - Current Profit £1017 - Total Staked £3909
    Ratchet square root (combination of two above methods)
    24.88% ROI - Current Profit £4028 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £16193
    27.39% ROI - Current Profit £4873 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £17794

    Incidentally, selection 265 also won but I can't be bothered updating all those figures! 
    The plans I will be following on here are:
    Level stakes (for control purposes)
    Square root
    1-3-2-6
    Ratchet square root
    I'll be posting the selections below as I find them and also running totals.  I'll keep the above totals going but I'll also start from £1000 again for the purposes of this thread so we can all follow it together.  Sometimes there will be conditions for the bet such as 'only qualifies if there are at least 5 runners' or 'only qualifies if xxx is a NR' etc.  Finally I've attached a graph showing how some of the plans have performed.  Hopefully things will continue in a similar manner.
    Last thing to say... I'm posting these selections for information only and I can't take any responsibility for losses that might occur from errors or otherwise.  Past performance is not an indicator of future performance for any system!  Let's go!

  17. Haha
    keef75 got a reaction from Xtc12 in When should I increase my stake.   
    I know I've made it much more complicated than it is on the sheet but I'm loathe to change it now as it's a bit of a beast with all the different staking systems!  But you can see how I messed up.  Twice.  Also having to put '13to8' in the cell because Excel so helpfully changes '13/8' to '13 Aug'!!
    Anyway, I'm going to create a new thread in Betting Systems and Strategies to continue this as I seem to have hijacked this one - apologies xtc12.
  18. Thanks
    keef75 got a reaction from harry_rag in When should I increase my stake.   
    Yes, like I said, this whole decimal thing really messes with my head!  I believe it's 7/4 (2.77).  I couldn't believe it myself when I put 11/4 as I thought that seemed way too high!
    Thanks for helping me out with that!!!
  19. Like
    keef75 reacted to liero1 in When should I increase my stake.   
    there is an easy way for anyone to calculate this -
     
    (1/P)^N
    P is your losing % (e.g. if you have odds of 2.0 its 0.5) and N is the number of consecutive losses you want to look at, let's say 4.
    So it would take STATISTICALLY (1/0.5)^4 = 16 bets to come across a 4-loss streak..
     
  20. Haha
    keef75 got a reaction from liero1 in When should I increase my stake.   
    To clarify (because I still mess up with decimal prices!) the average SP of the winning bets are 2.77 (roughly 11/4  7/4 as pointed out by my fellow punter below!!!) and 2.89, I'd already removed the 1 for the stake in my calculations which is why I foolishly quoted them in my original post.  I wanted to clarify because there's no way a 46% SR at 1.77 is going to produce a profit to level stakes! 🤪
  21. Thanks
    keef75 got a reaction from Xtc12 in When should I increase my stake.   
    There are a few websites you can get this from, if you search for 'losing run based on strike rate'.
    These are the figures I have:
    Strike Rate Max Losing Run per 1000 bets 5 135 10 66 15 43 20 31 25 24 30 19 35 16 40 14 45 12 50 10 55 9 60 8 65 7 70 6 75 5 80 4 85 4 90 3 95 2  
  22. Like
    keef75 reacted to Sir Puntalot in Following tipsters?   
    to Punters Lounge @BetterBettor   
    Put quite simply, there is just no need to pay for tips. There is never any guarantee a previous years record will be repeated the following year. It's much better to improve your own knowledge and style of betting, whilst managing your betting bankroll strictly, in fact this is the most important thing of all.
    Punters Lounge has in house tipsters as well as some phenomenal members who post great tips each and every day. We have an ethos that no part of this website will ever be charged for, unlike say Racing Post. You really have all the things you need right here for free, and shrewd punters to interact and learn from too.
    With all the updates we have coming, this will only be enhanced and we won't stop until we're the No.1 site for all punters providing everything they need completely free. It takes time, but we're making great progress in the background with our development team.
     
  23. Like
    keef75 got a reaction from Rivilearner in Free Football Analysis Tool   
    Results data has been added for the last week (I'm still waiting for yesterday's results to be published on the Cybet site).  I try to upload the upcoming matches to the site each day as that's the time-consuming bit taken care of if you're following a system - it saves having to manually trawl through the matches etc.  Once we know which matches are included then it's not too much of a problem not seeing the results on the site for a few days, I hope.
    It is becoming a bit of a chore keeping the site updated but I will continue and don't have any plans to stop in the near future.  I am going away again at the end of February so there will be no updates to the site then but I will process the data when I return at the beginning of March.
    Mexico issue is still not fixed as I just haven't had time to work on it recently - too many other projects on the go!
  24. Like
    keef75 reacted to alabomb in The Laying 0-0 Experiment - (21 bets +47%)   
    **RESULT & TODAYS SELECTION ADDED**
    Summary Update Below; (as of 11/02/2019)
    Start Balance        £10 Current Balance    £13.37 Current % Profit     +34% I didn't get a chance to share the last 2 games on here but they were both wins, latest selections added below.
    Previous Games;
    15/01 - Blackburn v Newcastle - £0.35 laid at 10.5, liability of £3.33 - WIN (Score 2-4) 15/01 - Luton v Sheff Wed - £0.30 laid at 12, liability of £3.33 - WIN (Score 0-1) 15/01 - Stoke v Shrewsbury - £0.25 laid at 14.0, liability of £3.33 - WIN (Score 2-3) 19/01 - Wolves v Leicester - £0.65 laid at 9.4, liability of £5.45 - WIN (Score 4-3) 20/01 - Fulham v Tottenham - £0.43 laid at 14.5, liability of £5.78 - WIN (Score 1-2) 20/01 - Schalke 04 vs. Wolfsburg - £0.66 laid at 9.8, liability of £5.78 - WIN (Score 2-1) 21/01 - Genoa v Milan - £0.67 laid at 10.5, liability of £6.32 - WIN (Score of 0-2) 21/01 - Bolton v West Brom - £0.57 laid at 12.0,liability  of £6.27 - WIN (Score of 0-2) 22/01 - Getafe v Valencia - £0.96 laid at 8.2, liability of £6.91 - WIN (Score of 1-0) 24/01 - Espanyol vs. Real Betis - £0.62 laid at 13.0, liability of £7.44 - WIN (Score of 1-1) 25/01 - Hertha BSC vs. Schalke 04 - £0.74 laid at 11.5, liability of £7.77 - WIN - (Score 2-2) 25/01 - Bristol City vs. Bolton Wanderers - £0.67 laid at 12.5, liability of £7.71 - WIN (Score 2-1) 26/01 - Brighton v West Brom - £0.47 laid at 13.0, liability of £5.64 - LOSE (-£5.64) 26/01 - Newcastle v Watford - £0.49 laid at 12.5, liablity of £5.64 - WIN (Score 0-2) 26/01 - Portsmouth v QPR - £0.56 laid at 11.0, liability of £5.60 - WIN (Score 1-1) 27/01 - Palace v Spurs - £0.41 laid @ 11.0, liability of £4.10 - WIN (Score 2-0) 27/01 - Lazio vs. Juventus £0.37 laid @ 12, liability of £4.07 - WIN (Score 1-2) 27/01 - St. Mirren vs. Hibernian - £0.36 laid at 12.5, liability of £4.14 - WIN (Score 1-3) 02/02 - Everton v Wolves - £0.33 laid at 12, liability of £3.63 - WIN (Score 1-3) 02/02 - Brighton v Wolves - £0.37 laid at 11, liability of £3.70 - LOSE (-£3.70) 02/02 - Burnley v Southampton - £0.33 laid at 12, liability of £3.63 - WIN (Score 1-1) 02/02 - Palace v Fulham - £0.31 laid at 13, liability of £3.72 - WIN (Score 2-0) 03/02 - Real Betis v A Madrid - £0.71 laid @ 9.4, liability of £5.96 - WIN (Score 1-0) 05/02 - Newport v Middlesborough - £0.67 laid @ 10.5, liability of £6.37 - WIN (Score 2-0) Next Games;
    11/02 - Wolves v Newcastle - £0.67 laid at 11.0, liability of £6.70 - 11/02 @ 20:00 11/02 - Vitória Setúbal vs. Belenenses - £0.84 laid @ 9.0, liability of £6.72 - 11/02 @ 20:15  
  25. Thanks
    keef75 got a reaction from Rivilearner in Free Football Analysis Tool   
    I still haven't managed to fix the Mexico issue but I'll try and work on it this week.
    All data is now up to date.