FabioTennis

Mikhail  Kukushkin (+5.5) vs Hyeon Chung @ 1.90 with SportingBet
Since coming back from injury, Chung has not impressed me greatly. He is very weak on serve and was, in my opinion, lucky to win against Berankis, who was in a position to take 2-0 sets lead. Kukushkin was more impressive against Rubin, so I'm happy to take the handicap here.

Alright, here we go with the final Grand Slam of the season and, before I begin, I'd just like to wish good luck to everyone who's going to be betting on it!
Now - I haven't had a long post in a while and this is a good excuse to have one, so here we go. This season has been quite juicy so far, especially if compared with the disaster that went by the name of 2017, so I'm going to be slightly more ambitious with the first round than I usually am. There are many interesting matches and I have a good feeling about quite a few of them, so I'm going to go for all kinds of bets in the very first round and no outrights at all. If I was asked for some tips, however, I'd have Nadal and Halep as the favourites and Bertens and Tsitsipas as the dark horses. Let's hope all goes well and that there will be a profit to be collected before the second round begins.
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Aljaz Bedene at 1.90 with Ladbrokes
The first bet that I'm going to go for is on the man who's made me so many points a few weeks back. That was on clay and this is on hard, but Nikoloz is reasonably universal and the fact is that he should be in a much better position going into this than Bedene, who's had pretty much zero match practice in recent times and who might be here just to collect the check. The last point might be stretching things a bit, but really, one needs to have some matches under the belt given the long match format and Bedene doesn't have that, so opposing him at odds that aren't even all that skinny makes a lot of sense to me.
Jil Belen Teichmann to beat Dalila Jakupovic at 1.67 with BetVictor
The one player that I really liked in the qualifiers was Jil Belen Teichmann and I think that she has every chance of getting a first round win as well. Jakupovic is one of those players that have just dodged having to qualify - and I have to tell you that I'm not sure that she would've been able to go through three rounds of tennis if she was asked to do that honestly. She made a lot of great results during the grass court seasons, with wins over Mertens and even Osaka, but, since then, she's done little of note. And, even more importantly, her last outing ended with her retiring in the middle of the second set. It's the same case as with Bedene then, with us getting two ways of winning here - either Teichmann beats her fair and square or Jakupovic just shows up for the check. I'm more than happy to chance that.
Dayana Yastremska to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.53 with Paddy Power
Karolina Muchova was another player that I quite liked in the qualifiers, but she faces a much sterner test than Teichmann here in the form of the in-form Yastremska, who really has impressed me on quite a few occasions in this season. What I really appreciate about her is the fighting spirit that she brings with herself, every single time that I saw her she was fighting to the end, with her recent match in New Haven being a splendid example of that if I remember correctly. She's one of the younger talents that I've been tracking in this season and she's generally been playing a level above Muchova, so, despite the qualifying success, I think that the Czech is going to come up well short here.
Fernando Verdasco to beat Feliciano Lopez at 1.66 with Ladbrokes
As much as one might like these two guys, it's fair to say that this match is going to be played in the twilight of their careers. That said, it seems to me that Lopez is losing his skills almost as quickly as Ferrer, while Verdasco still has a couple of good performances in himself, which is why I'm going to back him here. The big problem that I have with Lopez is that he seems to have lost a lot of endurance over the last year or two - and that is a tremendously important issue given that this match could go on for four or five sets.
Marco Cecchinato to beat Julien Benneteau at 1.67 with William Hill
Julien Benneteau is another player that's in the twilight of his career. I can't quite remember when exactly he wants to call it quits, whether it's this very US Open or it's one of those French tournaments at the end of the season, but that doesn't really matter. He was quite poor in Winston Salem and I'm not sure that he will be able to put up one last heroic performance. Cecchinato has almost no (or no) wins on hard courts, but he came close to getting some recently against much tougher and sharper players, so this is his chance - and, over five sets, he could even just outlast the Frenchman and win that way.
Vasek Pospisil to beat Lukas Lacko at 1.82 with Pinnacle 
Just a few months ago, I was ranting about how I don't like Pospisil in the singles and I was backing Bolt to win a set against him in one of the grass court tournaments, that much I remember. I haven't fallen in love with him since, don't get me wrong, but he has got some wins and some confidence back, while Lukas Lacko has been just moving around without soul in recent months. I was thinking about backing him against Zeballos in Winston Salem, but I dodged that bet and luckily so. Pospisil also has the home advantage here in a sense, so I'd have him as a somewhat bigger favourite than the odds suggest.
Jason Kubler to beat Roberto Bautista Agut at 4.33 with Ladbrokes
I haven't really covered any underdogs just yet, but here we go, I did manage to find one that I quite like in the form of Jason Kubler, who did really well in a couple of Challengers recently and who could find himself in a favourable spot against Roberto Bautista Agut, who didn't really play on American hard courts in the recent weeks. In fact, he hasn't played for more than a month now, with fitness issues troubling him the last time out. I reckon that he's sufficiently fit given that he's decided to show up, but Kubler is a good enough player to take advantage of any rustiness and I think that he'll be more than fired up for it given all the injury struggles he had in his career. He appears to be without pain now - and the odds for him to win a match against a presumably rusty opponent look tasty enough.
Jan-Lennard Struff (vs. Smyczek) + Agnieszka Radwanska (vs. Maria) at 1.95 with Paddy Power
Robin Haase (vs. McDonald) + Natalia Vikhlyantseva (vs. King) at 2.08 with Bet365
Aryna Sabalenka (vs. Collins) + Daria Gavrilova (vs. Sorribes Tormo) + Kiki Bertens (vs. Kr.Pliskova) at 1.93 with Bet365
Diego Schwartzman (vs. Delbonis) + Barbora Strycova (vs. Lao) + Fabio Fognini (vs. Mmoh) at 1.95 with Paddy Power
Backing a lot of reasonably big favourites isn't particularly difficult, but these picks aren't completely mindless, so there you go. Smyczek has been rather dreadful recently and I'm afraid that the end of his career might be near, Radwanska looked decent against much tougher opposition in recent weeks, Robin Haase has played himself into some solid form (and McDonald's desperate performance against Edmund doesn't inspire any confidence either), Vania King has played pretty much no successful singles in this season, Collins was desperately poor out there in recent weeks (I saw the match against Yastremska and I was shocked actually), Gavrilova nearly upset Sabalenka and SST is two steps down, Kr. Pliskova has been largely non-existent lately, etc. As always, it'd be a bit lucky to see all these guys deliver, but I'm hoping that we get only one letdown in this batch.

De Minaur -2 games to beat Medvedev at 1.98 with Pinnacle
Medvedev hates to play in such humid conditions. He said himself that he was physically dead at 6-4 5-0 score against Basic. He somehow managed to win with 6-4 score in second set. De Minaur is big fighter and I expect that he will outlast Medvedev in the end.

Skugor to beat Carreno Busta at 5.1 with Unibet
A bit speculative bet. I think that PCB already has his mind set for US Open, where he defends SF points from last year. PCB also showed decent level of tennis in Cincinnati, so he probably does not need much more match practice before US Open. Interestingly they already met once in Davis Cup, where Skugor won in 5 sets.

De Minaur -2 games to beat Medvedev at 1.98 with Pinnacle
Medvedev hates to play in such humid conditions. He said himself that he was physically dead at 6-4 5-0 score against Basic. He somehow managed to win with 6-4 score in second set. De Minaur is big fighter and I expect that he will outlast Medvedev in the end.

Skugor to beat Carreno Busta at 5.1 with Unibet
A bit speculative bet. I think that PCB already has his mind set for US Open, where he defends SF points from last year. PCB also showed decent level of tennis in Cincinnati, so he probably does not need much more match practice before US Open. Interestingly they already met once in Davis Cup, where Skugor won in 5 sets.

Anett Kontaveit to beat Kiki Bertens at 1.95 with Bet365
Chances are that this match won't even go ahead, as it would be very rational for Bertens to withdraw, but, if it does, I'll gladly back Kontaveit at 1.95. She lost a tight match against Kiki a couple of days ago and she's been resting since then, while Bertens has had a fairly tough schedule. With the US Open just around the corner, I don't see her pushing herself too much in New Haven.

David Goffin -2 games to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.9 with Pinnacle
Tsitsipas had tough week in Toronto, where he played in Finals against Nadal on Sunday. Surely he will be fatigued here. He will come late and he will need to adjust to new balls and new courts, while Goffin is already here for few days. Goffin is not in best form, but I think that courts in Cincinnati should suit him. Courts here are quite fast and Penn balls are also very fast, which suits Goffin. Tsitsipas played in Quarter Finals of Washington and I would be quite surprised if he would make another big run here.

David Goffin -2 games to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.9 with Pinnacle
Tsitsipas had tough week in Toronto, where he played in Finals against Nadal on Sunday. Surely he will be fatigued here. He will come late and he will need to adjust to new balls and new courts, while Goffin is already here for few days. Goffin is not in best form, but I think that courts in Cincinnati should suit him. Courts here are quite fast and Penn balls are also very fast, which suits Goffin. Tsitsipas played in Quarter Finals of Washington and I would be quite surprised if he would make another big run here.

Denis Istomin to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber at 3.62 with Pinnaclesports
Denis owns a 5-2 record in this matchup and has beaten Philipp on clay 2014 in Munich and they met on the grass of Stuttgart this season and Denis won 7-6 7-6. Denis has played some good tennis so far last days coming through the qualies and managing to beat Federico Delbonis pretty nicely in straight sets. Philipp may be the reigning champ in Kitzbuhel but he's got obvious problems with Denis and coming into the tournament without having played a match can always be tough against a dangerous player like Denis. Philipp lost in Hamburg first round last match to the champ Niko Basil and his season hasn't been all that good so there's every chance he'll be in a heap of trouble tomorrow.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Pablo Cuevas at 3.22 with Marathonbet
Pretty drastic odds given that Basilashvili has already won three matches against decent opposition in this tournament. Cuevas has always been the better clay court player of the two and everything, but his form has been VERY shaky in recent times and I just don't believe that he can be trusted as a big favorite against players that can actually play, which Basilashvili can. In terms of value, there's only one play to make here and I prefer the outright win over the handicap lines (if Basilashvili loses, chances are that it's going to be by a big margin, he's often that kind of a guy).
Vaclav Safranek to beat Rogerio Dutra Silva at 4.97 with Pinnacle
Odds odds odds. Dutra Silva has many of these odd losses against worse players and Safranek will have the home conditions on his side here, so 5.00?

I agree more with MrCrossover here. Rublev had tough match yesterday against FAA and he looked pretty gassed at the end of the match. That was also his first match in 3 months, so his fitness might be questionable, so I will avoid that one.
Donskoy ended his match very late, at 1 am and I don't like that. I was even thinking about betting on Trungelliti -2 games, but as I didn't see neither of them for quite some time, I will rather leave it alone.
Hopefully better opportunities will come soon. Good luck to all! 

David Ferrer (-3.5) to beat Zdenek Kolar at 1.72 with Bet365
I understand that Ferrer has been very poor in recent months, but we are talking about Zdenek Kolar here and I honestly think that he doesn't have the mental resilience to compete with Ferrer if the Spaniard is at least somewhat average. It also seems that this will be the Czech's debut on the ATP tour, so there's also that pressure to deal with. Ferrer enjoyed this tournament in the past - and this is arguably the softest R1 draw he could've wished for.

Gerald Melzer to beat Corentin Moutet at 1.96 with Pinnacle
I am simply going against Moutet here due to a lot of matches played in last few days. This will be his eight match in eight days. He played in Finals of Bastad Challenger on Saturday and he had to play in qualifications on Sunday and Monday. Last 6 matches all took around 2 hours. Even tough I rate Moutet as bigger talent, I think Melzer has better chances here.

Gerald Melzer to beat Corentin Moutet at 1.96 with Pinnacle
I am simply going against Moutet here due to a lot of matches played in last few days. This will be his eight match in eight days. He played in Finals of Bastad Challenger on Saturday and he had to play in qualifications on Sunday and Monday. Last 6 matches all took around 2 hours. Even tough I rate Moutet as bigger talent, I think Melzer has better chances here.

Gerald Melzer to beat Corentin Moutet at 1.96 with Pinnacle
I am simply going against Moutet here due to a lot of matches played in last few days. This will be his eight match in eight days. He played in Finals of Bastad Challenger on Saturday and he had to play in qualifications on Sunday and Monday. Last 6 matches all took around 2 hours. Even tough I rate Moutet as bigger talent, I think Melzer has better chances here.

Gerald Melzer to beat Corentin Moutet at 1.96 with Pinnacle
I am simply going against Moutet here due to a lot of matches played in last few days. This will be his eight match in eight days. He played in Finals of Bastad Challenger on Saturday and he had to play in qualifications on Sunday and Monday. Last 6 matches all took around 2 hours. Even tough I rate Moutet as bigger talent, I think Melzer has better chances here.

ATP Challenger Winnetka - R16
Tommy Paul is playing only his second tournament after coming back from injury. Two weeks ago he played in Winston-Salem futures, where he lost in the Finals against Michael Redlicki. He beat some unknown players, so it is hard to judge his form. King is in quite bad form, but the truth is that he played on clay and grass in last few months. Paul beat Smyczek in R1 on Monday, but he again needed some treatment on his right elbow (the same injury that put him away for six months this year). Tommy Paul collapsed on court after the end of the match and was down on the ground for several minutes.
I recomend 2/10 bet on Evan King @ 2.82 Pinnacle
ATP Wimbledon QF. Isner vs. Raonic
I am going with Isner and over here. Both are big servers with limited return game. Raonic was broken 3 times so far in Wimbledon, while Isner did not lose his serve at all. This is best Wimbledon tournament for Isner. Before this year he never passed third round and now he is in Quarter-Finals. Conditions do have some role in this, as this year we have very hot conditions and very little rain, which made surface a bit harder and balls are jumping a bit higher and those conditions are much better for Isner. They have met 4 times, with Isner leading 3-1 in H2H. Last two matches between them ended with tie break in all sets with only 5 break points in 5 sets (none converted).
I recomend 2/10 bet on Isner @ 2.3 Pinnacle
I recomend 2/10 bet on Over 47.5 games @ 1.81 Pinnacle

ATP Challenger Winnetka - R16
Tommy Paul is playing only his second tournament after coming back from injury. Two weeks ago he played in Winston-Salem futures, where he lost in the Finals against Michael Redlicki. He beat some unknown players, so it is hard to judge his form. King is in quite bad form, but the truth is that he played on clay and grass in last few months. Paul beat Smyczek in R1 on Monday, but he again needed some treatment on his right elbow (the same injury that put him away for six months this year). Tommy Paul collapsed on court after the end of the match and was down on the ground for several minutes.
I recomend 2/10 bet on Evan King @ 2.82 Pinnacle
ATP Wimbledon QF. Isner vs. Raonic
I am going with Isner and over here. Both are big servers with limited return game. Raonic was broken 3 times so far in Wimbledon, while Isner did not lose his serve at all. This is best Wimbledon tournament for Isner. Before this year he never passed third round and now he is in Quarter-Finals. Conditions do have some role in this, as this year we have very hot conditions and very little rain, which made surface a bit harder and balls are jumping a bit higher and those conditions are much better for Isner. They have met 4 times, with Isner leading 3-1 in H2H. Last two matches between them ended with tie break in all sets with only 5 break points in 5 sets (none converted).
I recomend 2/10 bet on Isner @ 2.3 Pinnacle
I recomend 2/10 bet on Over 47.5 games @ 1.81 Pinnacle