South_African_Punter

Bagnis/Pella to beat P.Cuevas/Dellien at 1.80 with bet365
None of these players are doubles players but I take the Argentinian pair for some reasons. Bagnis/Pella are friends and they have played together before (that was long time ago, but they have a W/L record of 7-3). Cuevas/Delien have played only 1 match together (they lost against Chardy/Martin in straight sets in Houston, 1 year ago). Pella is the player with a better Doubles ranking (60) of all of them, by far. As I said, none of these players are doubles players but Bagnis/Pella have played some matches together long time ago and they are playing in their own country, so I expect more implication from them.
@liquidglass Well, Moutet has won in straight sets against Monteiro. Considering that you were 100% sure that one of them (or both) wouldn’t win you can do now an all in for Cecchinato. You can be disagree with my reasons but I don’t like the words you have used (it’s pretty obvious you were trying to be disrespectful with me). I will tell you something. Long time ago I used to write very long posts every time I posted a bet, explaining all the reasons of every single one (the good ones but also the bad ones). Now I write shorter posts for a lot of reasons (English is not my native language and it’s difficult for me, I don’t want to spend a lot of time explaining all the reasons of every single bet I post, etc.). Pospisil, Ymer and Moutet have won (all of them in straight sets) so my conscience is clear (whatever happens with Londero).

I´m at least not going to leave the forum like hux flux when someone asks me for reasoning...

Vasek Pospisil to beat Aljaz Bedene at 1.87 with 888
Both players come here after a disappointing AO. Bedene lost in the second round against Gulbis in straight sets after winning against Duckworth in a 5 set match and Pospisil lost in the first round against Karlovic in straight sets. Any of these players are in a good form but Pospisil style fits more with this kind of courts. 

WTA Australian Open
S Hsieh / B Strycova - T Babos / K Mladenovic [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

I thought I am done with AO, but this one is simply too good.

Babos/Mladenovic are the best pair for me, they are playing agressive game, great returns and perfect net anticipation. They had really tough draw since R1 and didnt lost a set against some top teams like Barty/Goerges, Chan sisters or young guns McNally/Gauff.

Strycova/Hsieh are nr1 in the world, but since Wimbledon I see some downtrend in their game. They finished last year with 5 losses from 8 matches. Yes they won Brisbane this year, but only Hardecka/Klepac were the real doubles threat there. Here they had really easy draw, the only top team were Siniakova/Krejcikova in the semis, but they really hate smart tennis which Bara and Su-Wei produces.

It is close match on the paper, but not for me accoding to what I saw here. I am clearly on Babos/Maldenovic side. They met two times last year, In Wimbledon, Strycova/Hsieh won tight battle, but we all know how Strycova was playing her lifetime tournament there and that Hsiehs shots are soo difficult to play against on grass. Second time they met on masters on hardcourt, and B/M won easily 6-3 6-1 and I really believe they can repeat straight sets victory. They showed better tennis against stronger pairs and I was expecting odds around 1,6 on them. GL

Dominic Thiem to beat Rafal Nadal @ 3.10.
I think this price represents good value. I keep thinking back to the US Open, where Thiem took Nadal to a 5th set tie-breaker. Since then, Thiem has only increased his prowess on hard courts, with him winning in IW last year. Besides the 5-setter against Bolt, he has looked very good, especially in his last two matches. Nadal hasn't looked completely comfortable on serve and I believe Thiem has the ability to take advantage of that.

Dominic Thiem to beat Rafal Nadal @ 3.10.
I think this price represents good value. I keep thinking back to the US Open, where Thiem took Nadal to a 5th set tie-breaker. Since then, Thiem has only increased his prowess on hard courts, with him winning in IW last year. Besides the 5-setter against Bolt, he has looked very good, especially in his last two matches. Nadal hasn't looked completely comfortable on serve and I believe Thiem has the ability to take advantage of that.

Dominic Thiem to beat Rafal Nadal @ 3.10.
I think this price represents good value. I keep thinking back to the US Open, where Thiem took Nadal to a 5th set tie-breaker. Since then, Thiem has only increased his prowess on hard courts, with him winning in IW last year. Besides the 5-setter against Bolt, he has looked very good, especially in his last two matches. Nadal hasn't looked completely comfortable on serve and I believe Thiem has the ability to take advantage of that.

My last bet for the next 2 days (and maybe of the tournament).
Babos/Mladenovic (-1,5 Sets) to beat Gauff/Mcnally at 1.83 with bet365
After going with Gauff/Mcnally in their last two rounds I’m going to bet against them in this one. Babos/Mladenovic won the title here in 2018 and they also reached the Final in 2019 (losing it against Zhang/Stosur). They have won all their matches in straight sets (Olaru/Jakupovic, Gorges/Barty and Kuzmova/Sasnovich). Gauff/Mcnally almost lost today against Aoyama/Shibahara (they were 1 set down and 1 break down in the second set but they finally won the match). Even with Aoyama playing a bad match (she was losing a lot of points from the baseline and her serve was so weak) the young pair had a hard match so I can’t imagine them winning against one of the best pairs of the world.

Sofia Kenin (-3,5 Games) to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.81 with 888
After so many matches won by Jabeur as the underdog I think Kenin will be too much for her. She has won against so many big names (Konta, Garcia, Wozniacki and Qiang Wang) but none of them came here in good form. Kenin had 2 easy first rounds but her 2 last matches were against dangerous players. Shuai Zhang was playing really well (Final in Hobart and 2 wins here against Stephens and Mcnally) but Kenin won against her in 2 tight sets (7-5, 7-6). After that match she destroyed Gauff (6-7, 6-3, 6-0). This will be a very nice match to watch. Both players had a lot of variety but I see Kenin more solid from the baseline and Jabeur is more likely to fall in a spiral of errors against players like Kenin.
Garbiñe Muguruza to win the AO at 7.00 with bet365
Muguruza has already won against Kiki Bertens in straight sets. In QF she will play against the winner of the Kerber-Pavlyuchenkova match. Considering how Muguruza has been playing here she is the right favorite to win any of these 2 players (she’s playing better than any of them and she also dominates the h2h against them, especially against Pavlyuchenkova). In SF she will play against the winner of the Halep-Kontaveit match. Halep came here with a lot of doubts but after a scary first set in her first match here against Brady she has won all her matches without problems. Halep still has not played against a big hitters like Muguruza (well, Brady did trouble her in the first set) and the 3 times Halep and Muguruza have played in hard courts Muguruza have won all of them. If Kontaveit won against Halep it will be better for Muguruza because she prefers playing against hitters like her. I don’t know what to expect from Kontaveit. She has destroyed Bencic but she also had a hard match against Swiatek and dropped a set against the weak Sara Sorribes. Anyway, I think Halep will win against Kontaveit so…
The Final will be against Barty, Kvitova, Kenin or Jabeur.

This bet was a cakewalk.. Thiem has really been performing well and fighting every point.. I haven't watched match, but I loved Thiem today .. of course I expected Monfils to lose in the past couple rounds also.. But the quality is much higher here.. Yes, i know the match isn't over.. but we all know that it actually is.. Monfils is not coming back. Also, @darko08 - pretty sure you won that womens doubles match.. Not sure why it was close etc.. You're making really solid picks man.. I know the mistakes I've been making , and I intend to really improve my performance here in this forum... I've put alot of bad information out there betting for value when its not realistic outcomes, and I can do that maybe with my own bets, but I'm going to try to avoid them here unless I'm very confident with underrated player but mostly faves... Anyways Cheers, and well done SAP
 

Dominic Thiem (-3.5 game handicap) to beat Gael Monfils at 1.60 with SportingBet
Monfils has not really played anyone of substance yet this in this tournament but tomorrow he will face a stern match up against Dominic Thiem. Thiem owns a 8-1 H2H record against Monfils, with a fair amount of those matches on hard courts. As we saw last year at Indian Wells and the ATP finals, Thiem's hard court game has come a long way since he burst onto the scene and he has the tools, belief and strategic nous to beat Monfils.

Dominic Thiem (-3.5 game handicap) to beat Gael Monfils at 1.60 with SportingBet
Monfils has not really played anyone of substance yet this in this tournament but tomorrow he will face a stern match up against Dominic Thiem. Thiem owns a 8-1 H2H record against Monfils, with a fair amount of those matches on hard courts. As we saw last year at Indian Wells and the ATP finals, Thiem's hard court game has come a long way since he burst onto the scene and he has the tools, belief and strategic nous to beat Monfils.

Dominic Thiem (-3.5 game handicap) to beat Gael Monfils at 1.60 with SportingBet
Monfils has not really played anyone of substance yet this in this tournament but tomorrow he will face a stern match up against Dominic Thiem. Thiem owns a 8-1 H2H record against Monfils, with a fair amount of those matches on hard courts. As we saw last year at Indian Wells and the ATP finals, Thiem's hard court game has come a long way since he burst onto the scene and he has the tools, belief and strategic nous to beat Monfils.

I am going on Bertens to beat Diyas @1.50 with Pinnacle..
Though Bertens lost in the only H2H but that was more then 4 years ago when she performed better on clay.  She has since improved on the hard court last few years and Diyas is by no mean an "Elite" player.
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Yeah, thought the odds were kind of the wrong way round given Fognini's pedigree on hard. Took the bet in the end, happy it paid off.

Yeah, thought the odds were kind of the wrong way round given Fognini's pedigree on hard. Took the bet in the end, happy it paid off.

@South_African_Punter that 2.25 was only because he played two five setters, otherwise we would have undoubtedly seen him as a favourite and he would start around his opening odds, around 1.70. It’s hard court, he is definitely the more talented and better player. I think he’s a bit special, if it was any other player, the cumulative tiredness after two 5 setters would play a big role in my decision, but with him it’s different. He seems to stop trying, so the two lost sets don’t cost him that much energy and that he can win in 5, says to me he is a bit more serious about his business. But that is only my opinion. I have a soft spot for him as he is incredibly fun to watch. If he wins this one, he plays Sandgren, who seems to brought a very good form. Would love to see the odds.
 
 
 

Querrey - Sandgren over 40,5
40,5?! Yep, that`s a lot, but I expect at least one tie-break and I think there`s quite a big probability  both players will take a set. That should be enough to cross this line.
Schwartzman - Lajovic      1
Although I really like and appreciate Lajovic as a tennis player I sincerely doubt he can win this. Though there is definitely some value on Lajovic I believe  Schwartzman is far more dynamic and energetic player and if he takes the initiative and makes Lajovic run the Serb will have a lot of problems. A win for the Argentine in my opinion.
Kvitova  - Alexandrova   1
Risky bet. Kvitova is prone to weather conditions and I checked them. It shouldn`t be too hot which, in my opinion, should go in favour of the Czech player. Alexandrova is on the vicious run but I hope it stops here. Probably a 3 setter but in the end I see Petra as the winner. Low stakes of course.

Cuevas is not really a hardcourt player and he got smashed in the ATP Cup so I'd think that Simon has the definite advantage here.

Hi! I have been out for a long time but this is a Grand Slam so here I am again. 
Corentin Moutet to beat Marin Cilic at 2.62 with bet365
Cilic’s bad form still goes on. 0 finals played in 2019 and now out of the Top 30. He also left bad feelings in the ATP Cup so I can see an early bye from him here. The young talented Frenchman comes here with confidence. He did Final in his previous tournament (Doha) beating there Andrej Martin, Popyrin, Sandgren, Raonic, Verdasco and Wawrinka. He lost the Final against the very in-form Rublev.
Giles Simon to beat (-1,5 Sets) Pablo Cuevas at 1.85 with 888
Cuevas is another player in a very bad form. His performance in the ATP Cup was pathetic. He lost against Nishioka (6-0, 6-1), Nadal (6-2, 6-1) and Basilashvili in 3 sets. He was destroyed in his last match by Tommy Paul (6-1, 6-2) after beating Opelka (5-7, 7-6, 7-6). Im not worried for that win considering that was against Opelka. Simon is not in his best moment but his game and results in the last months are clearly better so I expect Simon to win this with the handicap.
Yoshihito Nishioka to beat (-1,5 Sets) Laslo Djere at 1.76 with 888
Nishioka played very well in the ATP Cup beating Cuevas and Basilashvili in straight sets and putting Nadal in some troubles despite losing the match. Djere has a bad record on hard courts so I expect Nishioka who is clearly the better hard court player here to take this 3-0 or 3-1.
Reilly Opelka vs Fabio Fognini Over 3.5 Sets at 1.51 with Marathonbet
Nothing much to say here. I can’t imagine this match being won in straight sets. These players faced each other in the US Open (Opelka won 3-1). 
I have to take a hard look to the women draw and let see what can I take from there.
 

Bet365 offered 2.91 to “cash now”, so I locked into the win. £291.00. No bad for the 1/2 hour work. Looking now for other opportunities.

A pick for Australian Open Qual. match

WOLF-KOLAR 2:0 SETS @ 1.8 betfair sportsbook (look for -1.5 sets handicap bet) or 1.75 bet365
Wolf winning a Challenger tournament last week destroying 6 opponents. Played some great tennis. Finished 2019 by winning another Challenger so 11-0 record for him in his last 11 matches.


 

When Goffin ruins your bet against Evans and then wins against Rafa, what a week ?.

Jennifer Brady to beat Maria Sharapova at 2.38 with Betway
Brady qualified for WTA Brisbrane with three comprehensive victories in the qualifiers. As we all know, Sharapova was ravaged by injury in 2019 and besides an exhibition match in late 2019 (which she won), there is no real indicator of her current form and I believe Brady is good enough to exploit her lack of match practice.