black rabbit

"dark thirty " to brighten the day

Newmarket 1.50 The first of six races screened by the ITV cameras is the 6F class 2 handicap for three year olds which has attracted a good sized field of 17. This really does have an open look about it with any market moves to be taken seriously. Adrian Nicholls’s Ingleby Ivy is one to keep an eye on having impressed when winning at Ripon by 4 1/4L last September prior to being out of his depth in listed company at York. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Rabaah Racing owned Pen Portrait is another interesting runner who’s making his handicap debut here having been gelded. He beat one of his opponents City House by 3/4L at Wolverhampton last September and is actually 5lb better off now. He could be a player but it’s the John & Thady Gosden trained Gamekeeper who catches my eye. This is his handicap debut and although some of the Gosden runners are need ing their first run this one was last seen only 22 days ago when third in a hot novice stakes at Kempton. William Buick is booked and he’s the one for me.   GAME KEEPER 1 point each way @ 15/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Cheltenham 2.05 The first of two races covered by the ITV cameras is this ten runner mares only handicap chase run over 3m 1F 56 yards. Charlie Longsdon saddles an interesting runner in the shape of I Am Gonna Be who has joined Longsdon from Lucinda Russell and has had a wind operation since last seen 104 days ago. The most likely winner though has to be last year’s runner up Juniper who is trained by Anthony Honeyball in Dorset. The ten year old comes here in excellent form having won her last two starts at Taunton and Wincanton rising 11lb on soft ground. The ground was good when she ran so well to finish runner up to My Silver Lining last year for Harry Whittington and although she is now 12lb higher appears to have improved for the stable switch. She’s the bet here although I can’t resist a small each way saver on I Am Gonna Be.   JUNIPER 1 point each way @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5th 1234 I AM GONNA BE 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 2.25 The 1M Wood Ditton Stakes features thirteen unraced three year olds in a race that is going to be worth following over the following month or so. The best guide here will be the market with the likes of Charlie Appleby’s full brother to Key Victory, First Conquest and the trio of John & Thady Gosden runners Earl Of Rochester, Pipes And Drums and Lead Artist all worth monitoring in the market. The only runner in the field who has future group entries at this stage is the Amo Racing owned, Dominic Ffrench-Davis trained Padesha who is entered in the Dante, Irish & English Derbys and the Irish 2000 Guineas. With little to go on I’ll take a chance on the latter who’s fancy entries surely suggest he can go a bit.   PADESHA 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365   Cheltenham 2.40 A near maximum field of seventeen face the judge for this 2M 4F 56 yard mares handicap hurdle. The race has a wide open look about it with the favourite around the 7/1 mark. Dan Skelton is always to be feared in these type of contests and saddles a brace of runners here in Notnowlinda and Cottie. The latter is ridden for the first time by Harry Skelton on only her fourth start for his brother, having previously been trained in Ireland by Henry De Bromhead. She’s an intriguing runner especially if the money comes for her but the one I like is the Philip Kirby trained Lone Star. She came into this race last year having won five of her previous six starts as a 9/1 chance and finished sixth (beaten 13L). She can race off of a handicap mark 8lb lower today having shown little on her last four starts which all came on unflavoured soft ground. With drying ground very much in her favour she can run a big race with regular pilot Joe Williamson in the saddle.   LONE STAR 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Newmarket 3.00 Next up is the 6F Group 3 Abernant Stakes run over 6F. This has supposedly been the target for Richard Hannon’s Shouldhavebeenaring who was incredibly easy to back at Wolverhampton following a 160 day beak 40 days ago drifting from 11/10 out to 9/4 and running as the market suggested. His trainer stated afterwards his early season target is this race so he has to be given a big chance although the one I like is Karl Burke’s Marshman who unlike the majority of his opponents today comes here with a recent run under his belt which must be a big bonus. That run came in the Cammidge Trophy Stakes at Doncaster on Lincoln day when running a decent neck second to the fast finishing William Haggas runner Montassib (4th Adaay In Devon won handicap since). He’s a consistent sprinter who, with that run behind him, can run well in a competitive renewal.   MARSHMAN 1 point each way @ 13-2 Coral 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 3.35 The meeting’s feature race is the 1M Craven Stakes which has attracted just seven runners this season. John & Thady Gosden’s Eben Shaddad brings the best form to the table with his Dewhurst third to City Of Troy (beaten 4 1/2L at 25/1) making him the joint officially top rated with Andre Fabre’s French challenger Alcantor. A Group 3 winner at Saint Cloud and runner up in the Group 1 Criterium International to David Menusier’s Sunway he has some solid juvenile form although all of his efforts came on soft ground. If there’s one horse in the race who may just be better than that pair then surely it’s the Charlie Appleby trained Native Approach, an imposing son of Too Darn Hot who followed up a debut second at Kempton by taking a maiden in easy style in February. That form will need to be bettered to take this but the vibes are strong and with his trainer having won this race three times in the last five years he has to be the pick here under William Buick.   NATIVE APPROACH 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill  

"dark thirty " to brighten the day

also had "cross double's with yours {as always} pal

It's all profit ......another +35.00 in the kitty 

Wallop                                                     1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     25/1          
Dark Thirty                                              1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1    - won
Lucid                                                        4 10 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Wallop                                                     1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     25/1          
Dark Thirty                                              1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1    - won
Lucid                                                        4 10 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Wallop                                                     1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     25/1          
Dark Thirty                                              1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1    - won
Lucid                                                        4 10 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

£37 loss yesterday
Total profit £ 1,619.22

Tuesday 16/04/2024
No Selections

Wallop                                                     1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     25/1          
Dark Thirty                                              1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1    - won
Lucid                                                        4 10 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Wallop                                                     1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     25/1          
Dark Thirty                                              1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1    - won
Lucid                                                        4 10 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Wallop                                                     1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     25/1          
Dark Thirty                                              1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1    - won
Lucid                                                        4 10 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Wallop                                                     1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     25/1          
Dark Thirty                                              1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1    - won
Lucid                                                        4 10 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

445 Newmarket 
Bolsena... has shown enough to suggest he could take a weakish looking race like this ....interesting that Ryan Moore takes the ride ....I'll try 5pts Ew 5/1 b365 (generally 7/2)

Newmarket 1.50 Day Two of the Craven meeting starts with a maximum field of twenty for this class 2 6F handicap. The race was won last year by Charlie Hills’s Orazio and he’ll be tough to beat back to defend his title even though he will be 11lb higher than last year. He prepped for this by running a fine third in the listed Cammidge Trophy (beaten 1 1/2L by Montassib) at Doncaster (his first since being gelded) and the ground should be ideal for him today with William Buick back on board from a similar stall as last year. He’s the bet here with the likes of Significantly and Chipstead the types who could also run well.   ORAZIO 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Cheltenham 2.05 A maximum field of eighteen line up for the first of two races aired live by ITV in the shape of this 2M 4F 56 yard class 2 handicap hurdle. The race has an open look with amongst the front of the betting being the hat trick seeking Spring Note of Nicky Henderson’s and Chris Gordon’s easy Plumpton winner Sea Invasion. Both hold solid chances but I prefer the in form Robbie Llewelyn trained Titan Discovery who has been a revelation since going handicapping winning at Ascot and Sandown and going down by half a length to Boombawn at Kempton on the Saturday after Cheltenham. That form has already been boosted by the win of the fourth Dan Skelton’s Kateira at Aintree. He’s risen 20lb since going handicapping and is up another 3lb for that latest second. Llewelyn has won with 3 of his last 4 runners and he looks a good each way bet.   TITAN DISCOVERY 1 point each way @ 8/1 Coral 1/5th 12345   Newmarket 2.25 Ten promising three year olds go to post for this listed 9F Feilden Stakes which can throw up a nice type (Golden Horn won this in 2015). Andre Fabre is a rare visitor to these shores nowadays and anything he sends over has to be respected so the fact that Narkez is here, having won already in France 22 days ago, is highly significant. His two wins however have come on very soft ground so I’ll look elsewhere for the winner. Charlie Appleby’s El Córdobes who cost 2,000,000 guineas as a yearling being by Frankel out of a Sea The Stars mare improved to take a Kempton novice stakes over a mile on his second start at the turn of the year and looks a horse to follow. This represents a step up in class for him but he looks sure to be thereabouts and can run a big race. Aidan O’Brien also sends one over from Ireland in the shape of Group 2 Zetland Stakes runner up Gasper De Lemos and must also be given plenty of respect.   EL CORDOBES 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Cheltenham 2.40 The valuable 2M 4F 127 yard Silver Trophy Handicap Chase has attracted a dozen chasers and has an open feel about it with Cheltenham’s Grand Annual Handicap Chase fifth In Excelsis Deo high on the shortlist. The ground will be better here now mind and that may play into course specialist Il Ridoto’s hands. Trained in Somerset by Paul Nicholls his course figures here read 844163238 and although theres just one victory there he’s been placed in many of the better 2M 4F handicap chases here over the past three years. He wasn’t disgraced when 8th in the Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival here in March and surprisingly the handicapper has dropped him 3lb putting him onto a mark that he was a short head second to Fugitif over course and distance in the December Gold Cup. He looks sure to run his race with Harry Cobden taking over from conditional Freddie Gingell.   IL RIDOTO 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 3.00 Ten have declared for the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes in which last year’s winner Ottoman Fleet, trained by Charlie Appleby, looks sure to go well and enhance his excellent course record of three wins from four starts. He may bump into one here mind in the shape of the Roger Varian trained Embesto who had a good first season last year as a three year old winning three of his five starts ending the season with 2 1/2L fourth in a Group 2 at Longchamp. The vibes are strong from Newmarket about this Roaring Lion colt and he looks the value bet in the contest. Royal Rhyme is a progressive horse of Karl Burke’s but seems best on very soft ground and is overlooked on that reason alone.   EMBESTO 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Newmarket 3.35 A 1000 Guineas trial, the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes has attracted a field of eleven this year including representatives from Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby. The warm favourite trained by the latter is Dance Sequence, who is only a 5/1 chance for the 1000 Guineas itself. She has looked a smart performer winning bath her starts as a juvenile, a maiden on the July course here and the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over course and distance last October by a neck from Skellet. She has the highest official rating in the field and will be hard to beat although is no value at her current price. The Aidan O’Brien runner is Matrika who was last seen winning a Group 2 at the Curragh over 6F in July. Only rated 3lb behind Dance Sequence she maybe the value bet at the prices to beat the favourite. Best of the rest may well be the Roger Varian filly True Cyan who, like the two aforementioned fillies, holds a 1000 Guineas entry as well (currently a 66-1 chance).   MATRIKA 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 123  

I have tried to write a program to do lottery but it's so complex and the returns all or nothing that I shelved  it ......I was gonna base it around hot and cold numbers and scrubbing say the last 2 to 3 draws numbers to narrow the range etc ....but the maths did my head in haha 🤣 🤣 

Wow ....photo between hafeet Alain and Dutch decoy ...gutted I didn't get the winner but forecast and Ew ....I'm actually shocked how the computer found that .....forecast has paid 182.88 ....plus around 20 from Dutch that's 202.88 ....making a total of +437.00 on last three weeks ...jeez 
 

255 Newmarket 
Bopedro. 8.8 10/1 
Dutch decoy.  8.8 16/1 
Hafeet Alain. 8.5 14/1 
Tricky race this one ....I'm not a huge fan of backing older horses and all these are of the older generation but computer is saying to back these even though they haven't got brill form .....gonna be an interesting one ....5pt Ew top 2 .....forecasts all 3 

Gracious Leader 4:05 Newmarket (10/1 Bet365).  Taken some of the early price as probably won't get much bigger. 5/2 fav on debut back in October, promising run and should appreciate the better ground. Each way as there are some possibly decent rivals.
0.5 pts e/w 10/1 (bet365).
 
Tailed off 😬
 
P/L: -1.7pts.

Profit of £ 111 + casino £ 20
Total profit £ 1, 656.22
Kelso 3.30 VAL DANCER 41/20 £20 win 10% boost
Kempton 6.30 ALIKA BREEZE £12 win 15/2
FIORENTINA 10/11 £5
 

AW selection
Kempton 7.00
HAT TOSS

Group 3 Chantilly 2.40 - GOT TO LOVE A GREY .
1 of 2 for K.Burke in race & rated 100 , has won 2 Listed races on fast & testing surfaces & won here a month a go , now the bad bit , was 4/1 with bet365 yesterday early evening , now 10/11 .
6th , drifted from odds on to 11/4 but best of the other UK raiders who finished 8th & 10th , glad I didn't back it , the price 4-1 to 10/11 put me off .

Everyone is exhausted from Aintree exploits I guess
Had an L15 on the daily = 3 points
3.50 Plum Pedley Wood 2 pt win at 5.6 on Betfair (My nap today).  Crystal Moon looks like a real danger but a 12lb rise may take its toll
5 points total staked today

A very quiet day today
I'll have a small wager from my NH system
Plumpton 4..25
PADDY DE POLE