captainlucky

Couldn't get these up on here last night, but 2 qualifiers for today
Bath 4:40 ALKHALIFA 13/2 Ladbrokes
Bath 5:45 MRS DANVERS 6/1 Bet365

One system bet for Tuesday. 
When I'm able to I always try to take a BOG price the evening before. I have accounts with Ladbrokes, Hills, Coral, Paddy, Bet365 and Skybet. So prices I post will only be from those 6 at the moment. 
Newmarket 4:45 MSAYYAN 13/2 Ladbrokes
 

Nice one mate

Got my own systems to go with for flat season. First bet is running today.
Windsor 4:50 ICART POINT 6/1 bet365

Windsor 4:50 ICART POINT 6/1 bet365

Got my own systems to go with for flat season. First bet is running today.
Windsor 4:50 ICART POINT 6/1 bet365

Can only access your naps from 7-8-2016 to 31/3/2018
Not including your ew Naps ,(I dont do ew so not changing my code just for 160 bets) , and WTF  is draw in horseracing (DH????)
You have 867 win only naps for the above dates which gives a  margin of error of +/- 0.034%
Its not the 95% accepted confidence level but then again doubt if Brian Cox is reading this.
Your return is 5.1% above expected(at taken prices not sp) and given that best price book average (excluding BF) is around 10% per race that means your actually beating the market by 15% ish  on your win only naps on an ave 35% SR (2.85)with average win odds of 3.15 , So it looks ok to me  
You say don't bet but if I were you I'd load what Im prepared to lose into a 35pt bank and blind bet all my win only nap selections to 1pt (little acorns and all that), using 35 as the divisor for an incremental stake (never decreasing only increasing),soon be barred from the books
Thats torn it now all the wannabee pros will be diving on your naps now ,the slightest bit of variance and they'll and all be on your case ( You've created a monster   )  
Price of fame weighs heavy I'm afraid BH
ATB
VT
 
 
 

Yeah @BillyHillsI was just trying to cause a bit of trouble lol

Exeter 4:45 HOLDBACKTHERIVER 7/1 William Hill
Will handle the heavy going better than some, but being raised from 2 miles to 2m 5.5f is the deciding factor for me.

Exeter 4:45 HOLDBACKTHERIVER 7/1 William Hill
Will handle the heavy going better than some, but being raised from 2 miles to 2m 5.5f is the deciding factor for me.

Hi everyone, 
I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. 
So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out...
With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really.
Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75
Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26
David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50
Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88
Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93
Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25
And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were
2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5
2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25
2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26
2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13
 
As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us.

I appreciate you will have done a fair bit of research for this, and others will have their views, but the rate of profitability with a profit of 232 from stakes of 180 for a rate of profit of just under 130% looks unsustainably high and suggests that this might just be a case of backfitting past results to produce a desired result.
You might like to look at my post regarding rates of return on betting.
Anyway good luck if you are pursuing this.

Am I allowed to post a reserve in the 5:30 Lingfield, even though I never posted it in original post? If so my pick is OUR CILLA 16/1 Bet365 Ladbrokes

Hi everyone, 
I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. 
So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out...
With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really.
Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75
Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26
David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50
Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88
Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93
Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25
And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were
2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5
2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25
2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26
2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13
 
As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us.

Hi everyone, 
I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. 
So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out...
With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really.
Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75
Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26
David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50
Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88
Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93
Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25
And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were
2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5
2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25
2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26
2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13
 
As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us.

Yes I'd say that specialising is a great thing to do, and in the better class races too. Also make a conscious effort to know the draw bias of all the tracks you'll be betting at. Personal thing for me is also try to avoid hold up horses (horses who try to come from behind in their races) lots of hard luck stories in sprints without needing traffic problems on the way too. You'll miss winners occasionally but you'll miss a lot more losers. If you can't get away from the form of a hold up horse then make sure you bet them sparingly and only when there is a strong pace where the leaders may fall into a hole at the end. And just a quick mention on 7f races, they're not considered sprints because it's between 6 and 7 furlongs where a horses muscles will start producing more lactic acid (saw it on a mini section when channel 4 racing was going, either on there or attheraces) so that's why it's generally seen as a specialist distance. It's not a bad idea to specialise in those races, never looked into that myself but if it's so specialist you could maybe cut a lot of 7f fields down to a very short list of possibles. I'll look into that myself and post something on 7f races if I find anything of worth.