yossa6133

830 wolv 
Very open race but computer is saying ...A pint of bear.... is overpriced here  at a generous looking  15/2 Ew  (estimated 9/2-5/1)....with 888 4 places so I'll try 5pts Ew 😀

It is a good time to look back and take stock, including of one aspect of all-weather racing which tends to be misrepresented. That is the nature of the surfaces on which the horses race, and in particular those surfaces’ speeds as inferred from the times recorded on them.
It is a myth that the speeds of all-weather surfaces do not vary, though they do avoid the real extremes that sometimes occur on turf.
That has not stopped every last all-weather fixture run so far this year from being described officially as “standard ” at Chelmsford, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton, and all 18 meetings in that time at Kempton from being described as “standard to slow”.
Time analysis paints a different picture of regular variations in implied surface speeds, some of them far from negligible.
A going allowance can be calculated which reflects the ability a horse would have to show to equal standard time, carrying weight-for-age in a well-run race, with lower indicating quicker conditions and higher the opposite.
This is how they look, summarised for all meetings in January to March inclusive in 2024. Where different time-based going allowances existed on the same card (such as following in-card track maintenance), the figure for the first race has been used.
 
Overall, there is agreement between time-based going allowances and official going descriptions 58.9% of the time, which leaves nearly half that are inaccurate as judged by such means. Wolverhampton easily leads the way in being “correct” 83.3% of the time.
Another way of looking at the data is to consider the maximum and minimum going allowances at each course, the range (the difference between maximum and minimum), and the standard deviation (which is a traditional measure of variance).
 
Wolverhampton and Lingfield perform best in terms of narrowness of range and lowness of standard deviation. They could arguably justify their unswervingly uniform approach to going description - the other courses less so.
As an illustration, a range of 50lb is equivalent to the difference between “good to soft” and “good to firm, tending to firm” on turf, or the difference between Frankel running a given time and a 90-rated handicapper doing the same.
Newcastle is a rather tricky case, in which wind sometimes plays a major part on its straight mile, which I have allowed for as much as possible. Unfortunately, British racing has ignored requests to record wind speed and direction as a matter of course as races are run, and nor does it publicise significant in-card track maintenance.
Even if you treat Newcastle as an outlier, 35% of other cards seem to have been miscategorised. Incidentally, the going allowance there on All-Weather Finals Day was 93 on my figures, or just about slap bang in the middle of “standard”, as described.
Either way, you can be sure that track conditions vary a good deal more than the official version would have you believe, and this has implications for speed, stamina, sectionals, race-positioning, distance betting, handicapping, times, in-play betting, and more besides.
Perhaps British racing will one day acknowledge that these things matter to those who bet on the sport and thereby help to keep the show on the road. But I won’t be holding my breath.

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When I was really keen on the speed figures (which is probably about 10 years ago now) my idea of a good bet was a horse who's last 2 figures were higher than any figure of any the other's runners last two runs
So basically with 10 runners you had 20 figures ..... if a horse had the top two it was good bet !
At the time I probably had two or three years figures stored on the Racing Post 'My Ratings'  ....... given that these AW horses run frequently on the whole I'd have a long list of figures for many horses. I'd be looking for patterns ..... does it produce it's best figures on today's track or at today's trip, in todays race class and type, are it's figures improving over the last couple of runs etc
To be honest I've never done Turf Racing because I've always considered the variables of going, course configuration and the relatively large number of lightly raced runners, 2 and 3 year olds with not much form and hence not many ratings, to be difficulties ..... plus the sheer amount of racing to keep a eye on

Had no time to write previews as I’m currently on holiday in Australia. Prices from yesterday morning.
  Altrincham to beat Dorking 2.5pts @ 11/10with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 4/5) Halifax to beat Kidderminster 1pt @ 23/10with Skybet (take up to 15/8) Warrington Rylands to be Guiseley 1pt @ 13/10 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Gainsborough to beat Lancaster 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred (take up to 6/4) Salisbury to beat Chesham 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfred and Skybet (take up to 5/2) Dorchester to beat Haynes & Yeading 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred and Skybet (take up to 6/4) Merthyr to beat Poole (being played at Dorchester) 1pt @ 23/20 with Betfred and Skybet (take up to Evs)

Hopefully it will be Day 1 of The Championships at Randwick in Sydney on Saturday although the area is having a crazy amount of rain so it could be called off. What is certain is that the ground will be very testing and that is going to be a big factor in how things play out. I have taken a look at 3 races on the card.
Race 2
This is a Group 2 over 2600m and the main bet is the ex-Stoute trained Circle Of Fire. He was 3rd in the Lingfield Derby Trial last year and then 4th in the Queens Vase at the Royal meeting. Since going to Oz he has had 2 4ths over 1600m and 1900m showing promise both times. As his form in the UK suggests he should relish stepping up to this sort of trip. He has yet to run on a testing surface so that is an unknown, but otherwise he has a leading chance.
At a bigger price Hopeful looks to have a fair chance. Well beaten 1st up, but he needs further than the 2000m that day. What really interests me though are his ground stats. He has no platings in 7 starts on good ground, on soft ground he has been in the 1st 3 10 times in 14 starts and in 3 starts on heavy ground 2 have seen him in the platings. There should be big improvement from him up in trip on a testing surface.
Circle of Fire @ 4/1 with most bookies
Hopeful e/w @ 16/1 with most bookies
Race 7
The big sprint on the card is the T J Smith. I’m not sure Imperatriz is in as good form as she was in her last prep and I’m happy enough to look elsewhere. I Wish I Win is 1st up here, but he does have a solid 1st up record and I think he can go close to winning this for the 2nd year running. That came on a Heavy 9 and his last start saw him finish a slightly unlucky 2nd in the The Everest when he didn’t get a clear run until the final 200m. 
The other one I like is Bella Nipotina. She is a solid mare who has been running well so far this prep. She loves a heavy track and that could easily see her improve enough to hit the frame at least here.
I Wish I Win @ 14/5 with Bet365
Bella Nipotina e/w @ 9/1 with most bookies
Race 8
The Doncaster Mile is a big field handicap and Another Wil was a short price favourite for this, but he then drew stall 21 which is going to be a worry. He is a horse on the upgrade though and he was impressive last Saturday at Rosehill. I do like the horse, but this is the hardest race he has been in, he has a shocking draw and I’m not sure about the 7 day back up for him either. He’s around the 11/4 mark and it is hard to say that is value.
With that said I am look to take 3 at double figure odds and then another couple at huge odds to small stakes. Plenty of UK bookies are going 4 places as well (on Aussie rules it is only 3 places despite the field size). All these have wet track form and look to be coming here in solid form. Detonator Jack, Southport Tycoon and Zougotcha are those at shorter double figure odds and the 2 at massive odds are Pericles and Semana.
I should just say Berkshire Shadow runs in this on his 2nd start in Oz and he his a huge price if he can run to the form he showed in the Lockinge or the Queen Anne. He was average in that 1st run at Flemington though.
Detonator Jack e/w @ 11/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes
Southport Tycoon e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R)
Zougotcha e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R)
Pericles e/w @ 50/1 with William Hill
Semana e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill (N/R)

Kempton 1.30 With Kelso unfortunately lost to the elements, the first of seven races on a rescheduled ITV schedule is this 6F novices stakes which has attracted ten runners and looks rather open. Clive Cox’s Sky Warrior is the only winner in the contest but a 7lb penalty for that Doncaster win last July may be his undoing here. Newmarket based trainer James Horton has had a horrendous year with his main owner John Dance leaving the game and he can strike with his Acclamation three year old Grandlad who gave odds on backers a scare when chasing home the 82 rated Run Boy Run at Newcastle on his racecourse debut last month and can be competitive and hopefully win at the second time of asking. There are others with chances including Harry Eustace’s Harry Did and Hugo Palmer’s Auric.   GRANDLAD 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   Kempton 2.05 Ten go to post for the 1M Virgin Bet Snowdrop Fillies’Stakes, a listed race for fillies and mares only. There’s no stand out bet in the contest with the two highest rated horses being Mystic Pearl and Choisya from the William Haggas and Simon & Ed Crisford Newmarket stables respectively. We haven’t seen the latter for 138 days when she defeated the re-opposing Julia Augusta over course and distance and is maybe the each way value in a race where several can be given a chance. The Crisford’s have won with three of their last ten runners so arrive in good form and as long as the chestnut filly is ready to go can enhance her good track record which reads 21. The Irish raider from the Joseph O’Brien stable Adelaise has to be respected and may be the biggest danger to the selection.   CHOISYA 1 point each way @ 9/2 Coral 1/5th 123     Kempton 2.40 The Virgin Bet Roseberry Handicap is a class 2 contest run over 1M 2F and 219 yards and has attracted a decent sized field of fourteen. Andrew Balding’s Old Harrovian is an interesting runner making his handicap debut having won both starts on a synthetic surface at Wolverhampton and Lingfield although has been priced accordingly. The Hollie Doyle ridden Intinso looked good when winning at Wolverhampton last March and despite a rise of 8lb can be competitive here and looks the pick. The grey appeared to show improved form there, his first since being gelded and from a favourable draw can run a big race.   INTINSO 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Curragh 2.55 Nine line up for this Group 3 Alleged Stakes which will be run on very soft ground. Last year’s Ballysax winner White Birch will have to be on the short list although his trainer John Joseph Murphy has only had one runner this year (back in January)and there would have to be questions over his fitness even if he did win first time out last season. In contrast we know that Joseph O’Brien has his string forward winning with 15 of his 46 runners this year at a win to run ratio of 33% and his representative here is his four year old filly Maxux who could be quite smart. A winner of two of her four starts as a three year old (she was unraced as a juvenile), she finished her season by taking a Group 3 at Fairyhouse by 4 1/4L from the right horses and although she has to prove herself on very soft ground appeals as one to be with.   MAXUX 1 point each way 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   Kempton 3.15 The 2M Virgin Bet Queen’s Prize Handicap has attracted a field of fourteen and has a very open look about it. Top weight Novel Legend has claims although I would like to see his trainer James Fanshawe in better form (although he did have a winner on Thursday) whilst the other market leader Sweet Fantasy will find these conditions rather different than when winning two juvenile hurdles in the mud this winter for his up and coming trainer James Owen. The pick for me has to be the bottom weight, Circuit Breaker. Formerly trained by Ralph Beckett he ticks many boxes here as he has won fresh before, stays the trip, handles the surface having won over course and distance and likes to be ridden forward with the plum draw in stall 1 to adopt those tactics. The booking of James Doyle is positive and this Jonjo O’Neill trained four year old looks excellent each way value having joined O’Neill for 260,000 guineas last October.   CIRCUIT BREAKER 2 points each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Chelmsford 3.30 An intriguing race for a Saturday afternoon at Chelmsford is the valuable Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes, a trial (usually in name only) for the Kentucky Derby. The fact that Aidan O’Brien sends over Capulet and maybe more interesting that Ryan Moore is here to ride points to the son of Justify as the most likely winner. A winner of a Dundalk maiden on his racecourse debut last August he followed that up with places in Group 2’s at Leopardstown and Newmarket the following month. As with, it seems, all of Aidan’s three year olds he has a stack of future group entries which include the 2000 Guineas and the English and Irish Derby. His main danger appears to be last weekend’s listed Burradon Stakes winner Cuban Tiger who had another of today’s opposition Orne (5lb better off for 3 1/4L and racing in first time cheek pieces) behind. This should be going to Ballydoyle and Capulet.   CAPULET 2 points win @ 11/10 William Hill   Kempton 3.45 Just five have declared for this Virgin Bet Fillies’ Conditions Stakes and we have a very warm favourite here in the Charlie Appleby trained Devoted Queen. She looked a smart sort when winning well on her racecourse debut at Newmarket on soft ground last October and this KIngman filly will be hard to beat and could even force her way into a run in the first classic of the season , the 1000 Guineas in a months time for which she is currently a 25/1 chance. She’s obviously been well found in the market here however but should be winning with the Richard Hughes trained Les Bleus looking the biggest danger having kept good company as a juvenile and placing in group company.  

Cardiff vs Sunderland Under 2.5 goals 1.61
Newcatle to bt West Ham 1.83
Rangers to bt Hibernian 1.25
£20 treble
 

This is something that I've considered over the years and my solution is to ignore it !
The logic is based on the fact that stayers are not going to be running against sprinters in the future so what I am comparing is stayers with other stayers. There's no need to compare stayers with sprinters
I guess this partly depends on how you are using your ratings. You appear to be using them to compile a list of horses to follow whereas I've always used them to study a specific race the following afternoon
So if I'm looking at a 6f sprint tomorrow generally all the ratings I have for those horses will be from other sprint races. It doesn't matter what other horses are doing in 12 furlong races ...... it's has no impact on my group of sprinters that are running in the 3.30 tomorrow
And of course vice versa if I'm looking at a 14 furlong race tomorrow
As regards calculating a going allowance ......... I've always tended to take more notice of times over sprint trips on the basis that there's less option for 'dawdling' which you might get over longer trips. If any figures at a meeting look way out of line with the other races I'll tend to ignore them for the purpose of getting an average across the meeting ...... races that get ignored would tend to be the longer ones, particularly low grade with small fields. I guess in mathematical terms I'm looking for a median not an average. So I'm happy to ignore outliers.

Wins 🔥👍🏼

If I restrict my rating to horses that achieved a rating on good or good to firm going then the top ones are -
+ 0.03 PADDINGTON. Sandown Group 1. No surprise as this was the Coral-Eclipse. Won its next race.
-0.03 ONCE MORE FOR LOVE. Newmarket Class 2 Handicap. Ran 2.38 secs faster than the group 3 contest on the same card. Unraced since.
-0.10 HUKUM. Ascot Grade 1. Lost its next race (Arc De Triomphe).
-0.12 REGIONAL. Haydock Group 1. Unraced since.
-0.19 FOX JOURNEY. Newbury Class 4 Handicap. Ran 2 times more on turf (placed at 11/1 and 5/1).
-0.25 SHALLOW HAL. Carlisle Class 5 Apprentice Hadicap. Unplaced in next 5 runs.
-0.26 REGIONAL. Haydock Listed. Lost its next race but then won the Group 1 Betfair Cup at Haydock with an even higher speed rating at 10/1.
-0.26 AUDIENCE. Newmarket Group 3. 4 runs since, lost 3 times on soft or good to soft going but came 2nd at 20/1 on good to firm.
-0.31 FIRST SIGHT. Yarmouth Class 3 Handicap. Transferred to Meydan where it lost 2 races.
-0.33 LOVE LIES. Ayr Class 5 Maiden. Won next race at 10/11 but then lost next 2.
-0,34 WARM HEART. York Group 1. Won 2 of its next 4 runs in France and the US at odds of 3/1 and 12/5.
 
Most of these appear logical and would have shown a profit if backed afterwards.
I will be interested how REGIONAL performs on its reappearance since it recorded 2 out of the top 7 speed figures. It has an entry in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes at York on the 15th of May.
My next step now I am reasonably happy with my calculations is a detailed analysis of each horse in 2023.
 
 

Mighty Nebula 11/4 Kempton 17:25

8.00 kemp 
Whitley way ....has a pretty good rating 8.2 for a drop into class 6 ....just looks overpriced based on that at 12/1 with will hill so I'll try 5pts Ew 

Fro @black rabbit
Good luck with the ratings Mike.  I think I posted a note ages ago about a guy I use to see regularly at the races back in the 70’s/80’s ‘Milo’ he’d a system where he would note from the Raceform Handicap Weekend edition (don’t think it’s published anymore) all horses which had won a race in an above average time (denoted by prefix ‘B’ in result column) the horse would have to have one of the following caveats from the race reader – ‘ran on well’ ‘quickened clear’ easily won’ ‘comfortably’ he claimed he got the system from ‘Phil Bull’ which was probably bullshite but he did appear to keep finding frequent winners.
The ’Rub’ being that any horse who could quicken at the end of a fast run race warranted serious respect in future races, I have loosely applied this over the years when a horse from these categories has been unplaced a few times and then slipped on to a nice handicap weight.

ASTERION FORLONGE won at 1/4, LUCKY LYREEN won at 17/2
Profit £23 less £5 on casino
Total profit £ 1,419.51
A much better month with a profit of £653, mostly driven by racing profits for once

 
 

15:30 Ludlow Kestrel Valley 1pt win @5/2 This horse was massively out of their depths at the Cheltenham festival when last seen however they ran well in a listed chase before that at Exeter and are now only 7lbs higher than when they won by 20 lengths when last in handicap company. They have won both of their last 2 starts at this track and they hold no fears on the ground which is again due to be fairly tough going. The main danger here is Georges Saint however they are not guaranteed to enjoy the trip and the consistency of Kestrel Valley can be sided with here!

3:15 Prontefract / Elegant Erin 8/1   3:30 Ludlow / Jacamar 11/4   Double and Singles

Musselburgh 1.50 A six runner three year old class 3 handicap kicks things off today for the ITV team with seven races to be shown split between Musselburgh and Haydock. The Johnston stable have won four of the last five renewals of this race and look to have solid claims of improving on that record with their Too Darn Hot colt Individualism. He showed form in all four starts as a juvenile and ended up with a creditable fifth of 13 in a Newmarket novice stakes that has already worked out well with the winner and third both winning since. That run came on heavy ground so today’s terrain should hold no fears for him and with Joe Fanning in the saddle can open his account at the fourth time of asking.   INDIVIDUALISM 2 points win @ 13/8 bet365   Haydock 2.05 A class 2 two mile handicap hurdle is the first from Haydock for the ITV cameras and features ten hurdlers. Top weight Brentford hope will love the conditions and should go very well although has been raised 5lb for his recent Newcastle win. Better value at the current odds may lie with the Dan Skelton trained Playful Saint who went down by just a neck to the re-opposing Milldam on his first run for a 366 day break at Stratford earlier this month. I confidently expect him to turn the tables on his old rival on 1lb better terms and with that run under his belt. Skelton still has his string in fine shape and is chasing Paul Nicholls in the trainers championship table. He can claw back £25,720 by taking this valuable contest.   PLAYFUL SAINT 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365   Musselburgh 2.25 Nine go to post for this class 2 7F handicap. Katie Scott sends her seven year old Gweedore, who’s had two racecourse gallops, back here to try and win the race for the third year running but is now 10lb higher and maybe susceptible to an improver like the Karl Burke trained Poet Master. Burke has his team well forward this season and his Sheikh Obaid owned four year old has won three of his four starts including a valuable handicap at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting on good to soft ground when last seen in September 2023. A 8lb rise puts him on the 100 mark and he can strike gain before moving into pattern company.   POET MASTER 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365   Haydock 2.40 A good sized field of thirteen line up for this 3M 58 yard class 2 handicap hurdle. The race has an open look about it with several holding chances although my eye is drawn to the Richard Phillips trained Picanha, a very lightly raced ten year old who’s won three of his 7 runs under rules (as well as an Irish point to point). There was plenty to like about his first run for 660 days at Newbury last month when fourth to Emitom (beaten 6 1/2L) with the winner and runner up, Kyntara both running with credit in the Pertemps Network Final at the Cheltenham festival to give the form a healthy look. Sure to have come forward for that run and with his trainer amongst the winners in the last fortnight he looks solid each way value.   PICANHA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5 1234   Musselburgh 3.00 Just eight have declared for this £45,000 guaranteed 5F Virgin Bet Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap. The one horse who stands out here is Karl Burke’s five year old Silkie Wilkie. He blew this race apart last year leading on the favoured near side rail and winning by 4 3/4L. He’s favourably drawn again in stall 7 near the rail and he can race today off of a mark 2lb lower than last year. His opponents looks rather exposed and the Middleham Park owned gelding will be hard to beat if in anyway near the same sort of form as last year. He will be ridden today by 7lb claiming apprentice Sam Feilden who has won on him before back in February 2023 at Kempton. He hopefully won’t have too much to do here other than point and go.   SILKY WILKIE 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill   Haydock 3.15 The 2M 4F veterans handicap chase has attracted ten runners with the ten year old Champagne Mystery one of the front runners in the betting market and to my eyes the most likely winner. Trained by Tom George he’s a rare winner but he’s shown up well in his last two starts since rejoining George having had a spell with his son Noel in France. Fifth to Ga Law in a valuable Cheltenham handicap he then was a two length third to Golden Son at Kempton just 1 1/2L behind the subsequent dual winner Heltenham. A further drop of a pound by the handicapper is very welcome and in an open chase should be thereabouts under Jonathan Burke.   CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   Musselburgh 3.35 A maximum field of fourteen for the day’s feature race the 1M 6F Virgin Bet Queen’s Cup. The Johnston stable have won this valuable handicap twice in the last four years and obviously mean business this season with four to be saddled. The best of which may be bottom weight Yorkindness but the one to beat is the James Owen trained Sweet Fortune. He was a dual 1M 4F handicap winner on soft ground last season for Ralph Beckett and since joining rookie trainer Owen has been sent hurdling and won novice hurdles at Plumpton and Catterick in good style. He’ll be fit, loves the ground and should run a big race under 3lb claiming apprentice Aidan Keeley.   SWEET FANTASY 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234    

Lingfield 1.30 The first of eleven races covered by ITV cameras today on All-Weather Finals day is this sixteen runner BetUK All-Weather Vase Apprentice Handicap, a class 4 event run over 1M 4F. Many have chances but its the Brandon Wilkie ridden Siempre Arturo that catches my eye. Trained by one of my favourite training duos in Daniel & Claire Kubler, this lightly raced four year old has only had had four racecourse starts, winning two of them including last time out at Wolverhampton when defeating Sense Of Worth by a length. The 3rd and 4th from that race have both won since to frank the form and with just a 4lb rise to contend with and the extra 2 1/2F likely to be in his favour looks the value play in this tight knit handicap.   SIEMPRE ARTURO 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5 12345   Newcastle 1.53 Thirteen go to post for the 2M 56 yard class 2 BetUK All-Weather Championships Marathon Handicap. The Ralph J Smith trained Palace Boy looks a value play here. He started out for Smith at Wolverhampton following a 288 break in which he ran over hurdles for Fergal O’Brien when he actually ran in the 2023 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The seven year old ran out a very easy 6L winner off of what was obviously a very lenient handicap mark of just 68 and following another success at the midlands track and a good second to the re-opposing Spartan Army finds himself on a mark 18lb higher. Spartan Army looks a threat here but on 7lb better terms for a 1 1/4L defeat Palace Boy can turn the form around and run a big race under George Rooke, who’s been in the plate on all three starts so far for Smith.   PALACE BOY 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5 1234   Lingfield 2.05 A maximum field of fourteen go to post for this class 3 BetUK All-Weather Vase Middle Distance Handicap run over 1M 2F. Another open looking handicap although Karl Burke’s Bystander had Inspiritus a length and a half behind over course and distance last time and although 4lb worse off won a tad cosily that day despite drifting out to his right on the run to the line. Brandon Wilkie was on board that day and is again in the saddle and could provide the promising young jockey with a Lingfield brace with his mount Siempre Arturo holding a good chance in the opener. The Daniel & Claire Kubler trained Al Rufaa is well berthed in stall 5 and may prove to be the danger in this open handicap.   BYSTANDER 1 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5 1234   Newcastle 2.25 The class 2 6F BetMGM All-Weather 3 Year Old Championships Handicap has attracted just eleven runners and like many of the races today has an open look about it. Bar a disappointing run at Lingfield on his penultimate run, Andrew Balding’s Fire Demon would be an even shorter price than he already is. A well related Juddmonte entire, he bounced back to form last time at Kempton when beating the re-opposing Media shooter by 1 1/4L and a 5lb rise may not be enough to stop him from following up here for Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy. That form has already taken a boost by the runner up and sixth winning since and he should be thereabouts.   FIRE DEMON 1 point win @ 7/1 bet365   Lingfield 2.40 A maximum field of twelve race for the class 3 BetMGM All-Weather Vase Mile Handicap. Dingle ran third in this last year and off of the same handicap mark can be competitive although the one to be with surely is the Gary Moore trained, Tom Queally ridden Cephalus. He comes here chasing a four timer having won under Queally at Kempton, Wolverhampton and Southwell. He was as impressive last time as in any of those victories and although he has to shoulder a 5lb penalty actually goes up 7lb in future handicaps so is effectively 2lb well in today. A draw of ten is not ideal but he may still be ahead of the handicap and is the bet here.   CEPHALUS 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Newcastle 3.00 Just nine have declared for the £150,000 guaranteed BetMGM Fillies’ And Mares’ Championships Handicap, a class 2 event run over 7F and 14 yards. Top weight Nine Tenths is a consistent four year old filly trained at Newmarket by William Haggas who appears to be the one they all have to beat here. Surprisingly left on the same handicap mark for a second and win on her last two starts in listed company she drops back into handicap company with the stable’s 7lb claiming apprentice Jack Enright taking over from William Buick. Enright has ridden five winners from 97 runners in Ireland and Britain over the past three seasons and was on board when Nine Tenths won at Wolverhampton back in December so knows the horse well enough. She may just be too classy for her eight rivals today.   NINE TENTHS 2 points win @ 5/2 bet365   Lingfield 3.15 A stamina test awaits the maximum fourteen runners here in the class 3 2M BetUK All-Weather Vase Marathon Handicap. The race has a very open look about it and this is maybe a contest that can go to Ireland with the Denis Gerard Hogan trained Riyami. A Dundalk winner over 2M last month he went off a well backed 11/8 favourite at the same venue when, in a amateur riders handicap, was one of many jockeys that let the eventual winner get the best part of a furlong ahead before running on late to take second place some 15L behind. His jockey, along with eleven others was suspended for five days and that run can easily be forgotten. J M Sheridan is over to ride today and is maybe a bit of each way value.   RIYAMI 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 Coral 1/5 1234   Newcastle 3.35 Next up is the 6F BetUK All-Weather Sprint Handicap in which we have a maximum field of fourteen. Cover Up impressed me immensely last time and the step up to 6F may not hinder the Gosden runner although he has to deal with a very hefty 13lb rise in the weights and it may be worth looking elsewhere for the winner. One horse who does appear to be on a decent enough mark is Harry Charlton’s Batal Dubai. Owned by Middleham Park Racing he’s been placed in three decent class 2 6F handicaps this year and appeared not to really handle the track when third, coming wide around the bend, to the re-appearing Chipstead last time at Lingfield. 2lb better off now and with the long straight of Newcastle much more to his liking he can run a big race under Clifford Lee for a trainer who’s been amongst the winners recently.   BATAL DUBAI 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5 1234   Lingfield 3.50 A maximum field of twelve declared for this class 3 6F BetUK All-weather Vase Sprint Handicap. This is a very open contest in which any of the participants could win. 5lb apprentice Brandon Wilkie could be in for a golden day and rides Hugo Palmer’s, Middleham Park Racing owned five year old How Impressive who has as good a chance as any. Nicely berthed in stall 5 he’s won three of his last four starts rising 13lb in the process and may appreciate dropping back to 6F having raced last time over 7F at Southwell.   HOW IMPRESSIVE 1/2 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5 1234   Newcastle 4.10 Another maximum field go to post for this 1M 2F 42 yard BetUK All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap, a class 2 race that has a purse of £200,000 plus. Irish raider and top weight Elegant Man is interesting with some future group entries and he may be the one to be with here despite carrying a big weight. It’s quite possible that he is the proverbial group horse in a handicap. Mick Appleby’s prolific winner Penzance and Simon & Ed Crisford’s four timer seeking Oh So Grand both have decent claims with slight preference for the latter who has the assistance once again of Jack Mitchell, who’s been on top for his last three wins. He’s risen 18lb for those success’s which has included a victory here as well as a brace at Lingfield. Four from five on the all-weather he can give the selection Elegant Man the most to do.   ELEGANT MAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 Coral 1/5 1234   Newcastle 4.40 The final race on the card is the 1M 5 yard BetMGM All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap, a class 2 event in which we have another maximum field of fourteen. Charlie Johnstone’s progressive Middleham Park owned top weight Dear My Friend has been a revelation this all-weather season and can complete a four timer here following success’s over course and distance and a brace of wins, including in listed company at Lingfield. He’s risen 16lb in the handicap for those wins and with Joe Fanning back in the saddle looks sure to be thereabouts.   DEAR MY FRIEND 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365    

@yossa6133 I always watch all the carnival meets on dubai racing, can get it: awaan.ae on live streams, will be on dubai racing 1,2 or 3.
Had Giavellotto 1240 Meydan on my radar for while, was no good in this race last year which is a worry, but probably had career best last time in Saudi, beaten by Tower Of London and Enemy but was carrying 6lb more as it was a handicap, surely will be in the mix 10/1 paddy Power 5 places

I've parked setting my own standard times for the time being after going round in circles many times.
I've decided initially to use the Raceform Standard Times.
So my revised method is :-
 
1. For each race compare the actual time to the standard time.
2. Convert these into seconds per mile.
3. Calculate the average variance for each class of race. This gives the seconds per mile slower than standard time by class.
 
4. For each race amend the variance by the class adjustment.
5. For each meeting calculate the average of the adjusted variances. This is the going allowance for that meeting.
6. For each race amend the variance by the going allowance. This gives the final variance.
 
This has created some interesting and unexpected numbers. In my top ten I would have expected to see the winners of the big group 1 races at Royal Ascot etc. However this is not the case. The top rated are :-
1. + 1.68. MINZALL. Haydock Group 1. No surprise here as it was a new course record. 
2. + 1.62. LIVE IN THE DREAM. Sandown Class 2 Handicap. Won 4 times from the next 14 runs at prices of 28/1, 12/1, 5/2 and 11/8. This include the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York so obviously a class horse. 
3. + 0.82. ANMAAT. Haydock Group 3. Won 2 from the next 3 at prices 23/10 and 13/10.
4. + 0.67. TANMAWWY. Ffos Las Class 3 Handicap. A poor record afterwards with 1 win at 13/8 from 7 runs before being shipped to the US. 
5. + 0.63. DUBAI MIRAGE. Salisbury Class 2 Handicap. Won 1 from the next 4 at 11/2.
6. + 0.63. GOOD LUCK FOX. Catterick Class 5 Handicap. Ran 11 times since without success (although none of them were on heavy going). Not the sort of horse you would expect to see with a high speed figure. The going was heavy and all the races were run upto 27 seconds slower. Perhaps speed figures achieved on heavy going should be ignored or at least treated with caution.
7. + 0.59. REGAL REALITY. Windsor Group 3. The time was 1.99 seconds faster than standard despite the going being good to soft. Won 1 from next 7 at 5/1.
8. + 0.43. AZANO. Redcar Class 3 Handicap. Faster than standard and also carrying top weight of 10 st 2 lbs would indicate that this was a top class performance. However only won 1 of the following 15 races at 5/1.
9. + 0.39. SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD. From the same meeting as GOOD LUCK FOX. Won 1 from the next 4 at 15/2.
10. + 0.36. SEANTRABH. Catterick Class 5 Novice. Going was Soft (Heavy In Places). Won 1 from the next 7 at 15/2.
11 + 0.36. PYLEDRIVER. Ascot Group 1. Won 1 from next 2 at 7/2.
12 + 0.29. STAY ALERT. Newbury Group 3. Faster than standard but no success in the next 5 races (although they were all higher class races).
13 + 0.28. CHIPSTEAD. Catterick (again !) Class 2 Handicap. Won 3 from the next 14 at 16/1, 12/1 and 12/1.
 
A lot more work to do but so far looks encouraging.
 
 
 

Beat the Edge 3:20 Wetherby (3/1 general). Missed the price (was 6/1 last night), but this looks to have a good chance. C/D winner here last year on soft and now 5lb lower, In form Hughes an eye catching jockey booking too. Gets lumps of weight from the 2 main dangers.
Maskia probably has the best bit of form in the race, but that was on good ground and has been off for 2 year, so will probably need the run but one to keep an eye on on better ground.
 
1pt win Beat the Edge 
 
Rubbish, thought he was smuggling him into the race, but didn't pick up at all and the winner did it easy.
 
P/L: -1.4pts.
 

Well i watch them on bet365, It was on terrestrial last year but not sure about this year.

A few proviso's here.
I could only rate Runners from Britain, Ireland, Meydan, and Jebel Ali.
Which leaves out Japan and the USA. So a bit of caution is advised.
12:05
1 Isolate                        129        3rd
2 Remorse                    129
3 Swing Vote                127
12:40
1 Coltrane                    143
2 Enemy                       134
3 Tower of London     133      won
1:30
1 Danyah                      136
2 Emeraaty Anna        136
3 Dilligent Harry          132    3rd
1:50
1 Mendelsson Bay      (my best guess)
2:25
1 Leading Spirit         132
2 Mouheeb                131
3 Tuz/Colour up       130    won 10/1 /up
3:10
1 Luxembourg         145
2 Real World             135
3 Nashwa                  134
4:00
1 August Rodin         143
2 Spirit Dancer          133
3 Emily Upjohn          131
4:35
1 Military Law             126
2 Derm Sotogaki        125
3 Laurel River             123   won 17/2
Made a bit of profit on the day by way of my Tadhg  O'Shea double on my  O'Shea (L15) and a few bits and bobs on the places/extra places. but overall as usual at this meeting there were some iffy results so can't really complain.

Beat the Edge 3:20 Wetherby (3/1 general). Missed the price (was 6/1 last night), but this looks to have a good chance. C/D winner here last year on soft and now 5lb lower, In form Hughes an eye catching jockey booking too. Gets lumps of weight from the 2 main dangers.
Maskia probably has the best bit of form in the race, but that was on good ground and has been off for 2 year, so will probably need the run but one to keep an eye on on better ground.
 
1pt win Beat the Edge 
 
Rubbish, thought he was smuggling him into the race, but didn't pick up at all and the winner did it easy.
 
P/L: -1.4pts.
 

Beat the Edge 3:20 Wetherby (3/1 general). Missed the price (was 6/1 last night), but this looks to have a good chance. C/D winner here last year on soft and now 5lb lower, In form Hughes an eye catching jockey booking too. Gets lumps of weight from the 2 main dangers.
Maskia probably has the best bit of form in the race, but that was on good ground and has been off for 2 year, so will probably need the run but one to keep an eye on on better ground.
 
1pt win Beat the Edge 
 
Rubbish, thought he was smuggling him into the race, but didn't pick up at all and the winner did it easy.
 
P/L: -1.4pts.