yossa6133

Ran well to finish 2nd [6-1]

6.10 Uttoxeter-Damarta 
His only win came under todays jockey....current best odds of 5-1

Walkadina  1920 UTT and Austins Hill Lass  1950 UTT...............N H Flat  double .

Newmarket trainer sends 2 to epsom for a £26k winner prize......and they come 1st / 2nd 👍......so we backed both at 5/2 & 5/1 from our friends tip below .....Crystal Delight  @ 5/2 WON  by looked like 5/6L 🐎 
''anyway enough of this banter, might be worth backing both of Eustace's in 3.20 Epsom as hear they fit!'' 
 

It's a single bet. Skybet has 4 places in this race. I'm betting that both finish on the first 4. 
On this coupon there's the bit WIN, WIN. But this is each way.
 

What bookie is that with? I'm not sure how to do it.
 
 
EDIT. sorry I realised you probably meant 2 separate bets on them to finish in the top 4.

I'm having a small punt on these two horses (obviously).
14:10 at Epsom Downs 
Reverse forecast 
LOOKING FOR LYNDA
&
LIHOU.
I'm betting that both horses finish in the first 4.

145 S Borodale 3/1
A lucky winner lto but was seemingly cruising up on hvy to challenge until 2 out when hit the hurdle and lost momentum.
Unexposed yet and first try over fences today. 
 Murphy 12 from 29 41% at Southwell this year.

ON THE RIVER won yesteday at 3/1 + 3 losers for a breakeven day.
Current profit 5.54 points.
Top rated today is Crystal Delight but that was achieved on the AW.
2nd top rated in that race is DUAL IDENTITY and it is top rated on todays good going. Available at 6/1, I'll have a bet at BSP.
Top rated in total and on the going are
Epsom 3.55 WYNTER WILDES 15/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places)
Epsom 4.30 MIDAIR 5/4 - BSP
Epsom 5.05 MR BALOO 10/3 - BSP
Yarmouth 2.00 READY OR NOT 8/1 - BETMGM
Yarmouth 4.20 SPANISH MANE 80/1 - BETMGM EW (4 places)
Yarmouth 5.25 BATCHELOR BOY 5/1 - BSP
 

Good Morning.
Little tip today (or the one to avoid lol, not brave enough to put it on the "£20.00 Daily Challenge"). 3.20 Epsom, Qitaal. Justin. 

Jeteye 5:50 Southwell (3/1). Just following the money on this one 16's into 3's. Looks a likely type for a bit of a plot, with the step up in trip, tongue strap on and better ground.
1pt win 3/1 (bet365)
 
P/L: -4.3pts.

Trainer form maybe, always something I think I should pay more attention to!
What the actual ground is compared to the going description i.e working your ratings out after the time of first race is known. Saw someone say recently that they never bet on the first race for this reason. 
Temperature, there must be horses out there that only perform when it's warm. Not seen much about this but it would make sense.
Market mover? Drifted like a barge or smashed in.

210 epsom 
Looking for Lynda  8.5 9/1
Mountain peak. 8.5 10/1
Clearpoint.   8.2 
Tricky race with lots of questions marks but I'll try 2pt Ew on top 2 as they look a bit of value 

I spent ages looking at trainer form but couldn't find any angle that gave me an edge
Interesting about the first race , I'll include this as one of the areas to investigate with my speed figures
Again the temperature angle is interesting. Not sure if I can incorporate the weather into my analysis ! I have noticed though that some of my successful winners based on speed figures seemed to achieve their speed figure at a similar time of year. That could be an interesting angle.
Market movers are also interesting. I always suspect the worse when I see my horse has drifted and the backed horses always seem to win, again anecdotal rater than based on actual data.

Trainer form maybe, always something I think I should pay more attention to!
What the actual ground is compared to the going description i.e working your ratings out after the time of first race is known. Saw someone say recently that they never bet on the first race for this reason. 
Temperature, there must be horses out there that only perform when it's warm. Not seen much about this but it would make sense.
Market mover? Drifted like a barge or smashed in.

Going to give this a live run for 50 bets to see if there is any mileage in it. Bookies now have screwed me with only paying 20% on the 16+ handicaps instead of 25%   Ok they give your more places but the value just seemed to have gone now
So going to try a little laying method on these extra places - probably a bag of **** but he who dares.
Will start today. BIG fingers crossed
 

Oh i doubt there will be anything i would/could contribute to help you along your path, but you've given me a good chuckle that you thought i could. It just goes to show what i know, i assumed (wrongly) that any speed rating on a horse would have to be at the distance it was racing at, first and foremost. Thinking as i type and have just had a winner in the 515, (yippee) i use an example of the poor horses that are not quite sprinters, 5/6f, and can't last a mile, but excel over 7f and as far as i know, there are no classic's or decent races over that distance. (sorry if i'm wrong on that) To me, taking speed figures from 6f races and 8f races when their best distance is 7f, just seems strange. What i've just said is just an example of course and not explained very well, but i hope you get what i'm getting at? Seems to be coming along anyway and you've already had a few winners from it, just think how good it will be when you have all your facts and figures input into it...will be a gold mine!!! 

Southampton 1.6
 
Missed the price off, wasn't sure if edits were allowed so made another post!

Ayr 1.15 The first of five races covered by ITV is the 2M 1/2F Scotty Brand Premier Handicap Chase with just six runners going to post. Paul Nicholls’s Sans Bruit did us a favour at Aintree when given a peach of a ride from the front by Bryony Frost who came home 4L to the good and despite a 10lb rise in the weights he may still be well handicapped on his back form in France. Expect Frost to employ the same tactics and if getting into a good rhythm will be tough to pass. Willie Mullins sends a formidable team to the West Scotland track and his Uncle Phil maybe the one to chase the selection home.   SANS BRUIT 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 1.30 It’s Greenham Stakes day at Newbury and proceedings kick off with the 1M 4F Group 3 John Porter Stakes which has attracted ten runners. Ground on the easy side are very much in the favour of the front two in the betting, William Haggas’s Hamish who has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his group 3 victories last year and John & Thady Gosden’s Arrest who was last seen when finishing runner up in the St Leger at Doncaster. The Gosden runners have all been seen to be needing a run this week but the vibes are strong for this Frankel four year old and he’s the pick.   ARREST 1 point win @ 11/8 William Hill   Ayr 1.50 Thirteen face the judge for the class 2 3M Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase. Willie Mullins’s Sharjah heads the weights in his first handicap chase and shouldn’t be dismissed despite the big weight. Richard Bandey has his string in good form and he can take this with his MacLaine who looks favourably weighted towards the bottom of the weights. Formerly trained by Oliver Sherwood he’s shown promise for his new trainer with his latest victory at Newbury coming over the furthest trip he’s tried in his career over 2M 6 1/2F where he was strongest at the finish passing the line an eased down 3 1/2L ahead of his field. A rise of 8lb will make things tougher for him but with his stamina drawn out further he looks a good value each way bet in a competitive contest.   MACLAINE 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 2.05 Just six three year old fillies go to post for the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes with the highest rated being the William Haggas trained Relief Rally who isn’t certain to stay this trip of 7F mind and is opposable. John & Thady Gosden could be in for a good day with Arrest in the John Porter and can take this with their Frankel filly Regal Jubilee who will certainly enjoy any ease in the ground having won the listed Montrose Stakes on heavy ground at Newmarket last backend. Marco Botti has taken charge of a decent unbeaten Italian filly in the shape of Folgaria and she’s very hard to assess having won five times in her native country last year including in Group 3 and 2 company.   REGAL JUBILEE 1/2 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Ayr 2.25 We have a good turnout of fifteen runners for the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle which is a handicap run over a distance of two miles. Last year’s winner Rubaud heads the weights but is 13lb higher now than last year’s victory and has it to do. Willie Mullins has three stabs at the race with Paul Townend presumably choosing Bialystok over Westport Cove and Alvainy although he was 19L behind L’Eau Du Sud in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last time and I can’t see any reason why he would turn the form around despite a pull of just 3lb. Dan Skelton trains L’Eau Du Sud and he’s put up two excellent efforts in defeat in the Betfair Hurdle (2nd to Iberico Lord) and in the aforementioned County Hurdle (2nd to Absurde). A 3lb rise in the weights is unlikely to stop him from being highly competitive again and he is the one they all have to beat. Nicky Henderson has his string in great shape now and his First Street is worth a small each way saver. 8th in this last year he has a 20lb pull for 18L with the winner Rubaud and looked back to form when third to Lossiemouth in the Unibet Hurdle at Cheltenham when last seen in January. He’s also had a wind operation since last seen and can run well. A tough race but L’Eau du Sud is the selection.   L’EAU DU SUD 1 point win @ 4/1 Coral FLEET STREET 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 2.40 The trial for the 2000 Guineas is the Greenham Stakes run over 7F and we have a field of eleven. Ralph Beckett’s unbeaten Zoum Zoum heads the market but looks far too short in my eyes for a horse that on official ratings is only third joint best and joint seventh best on Timeform ratings. Even though he is very promising I can’t be going near him at his current odds of around even money (big drifter since published.) The value bet may be Adrian Keatley’s Ballymount Boy who showed good progressive form as a juvenile finishing runner up in group races won by Vandeek and Indian Run and ended the season with a listed win at the final Doncaster meeting on heavy ground. James Doyle takes the ride for his new employers Wathan Racing and can be backed each way.   BALLYMOUNT BOY 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   Ayr 3.00 Next up is a class 2 3M 70 yard mares’ handicap hurdle which has attracted a field of eleven. Willie Mullins saddles three here in his quest to maintain the advantage in the British jockeys championship and with A Penny A Hundred the pick of stable jockey Paul Townend she looks the one to be with. The lightly raced five year old is asking her handicap debut but has looked useful in winning a bumper and a novice hurdle before being placed in listed and grade three mares company. She was a 66-1 chance when not being disgraced in fourth (beaten 20L) in a grade one mares race won by the smart Jade De Grugy three weeks ago and a mark of 133 seems fair enough. The Dan Skelton runner Coco Mademoiselle (Chepstow novice hurdle winner last time) and Paul Nicholls’s Larchmont Lass look dangers but this can be one for the Irish maestro Willie Mullins.   A PENNY A HUNDRED 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365   Newbury 3.15 The big handicap of the day at Newbury is the 1M OLBG Spring Cup with a big field of 21 spread across the straight track. As you would expect it has a wide open look about it. Lincoln Handicap runner up Lattam looked a tad unlucky to me and can confirm that form with the third Navarro, fourth Alpha Crucis and seventh Thunder Ball and run well. Julie Camacho is not really firing at the present and for only that reason the selection is the Richard Hughes trained Real Gain. Hughes has been in unstoppable form recently winning with 7 of his 20 runners at time of writing and he took a handicap at Newmarket apart last September off of a mark 11lb lower than today’s on fast ground. He’s been gelded since last seen and he has to prove his effectiveness on softer ground but he wasn’t disgraced on soft group in a Group 3 when last seen and can reward an each way wager in a wide open mile handicap with a small each way saver on Lattam.   REAL GAIN 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 LATTAM 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Ayr 3.35 A near maximum field of 26 line up for this year’s renewal of the 4M Coral Scottish Grand National. There’s plenty here who will struggle at the trip with five of the six Willie Mullins having stamina to prove with Mr Incredible the exception although he’s hardly had the best prep for this having unseated at the chair in last weekend’s Grand National. My short list include Sara Bradstock’s Mr Vango who stays so well having won the Devon National by a staggering 60L prior to a creditable third in the NH Chase at Cheltenham won by subsequent Grade 1 winner Corbetts Cross. He holds decent each way claims despite a 3lb rise. Out and out stayer My Silver Lining ran a stormer in the Midlands Grand National finishing third to the re-opposing pair of Beauport and Mr Incredible and can come out best of those who finished ahead of him over this 2F less distance. My main fancy though has to be the Jamie Snowden trained Git Maker who is stepping up in trip here but has always looked an out and out stayer throughout his career. He’s only gone up a pound for finishing runner up to the handicap blot that was Inotherwayurthinkin in the Kim Muir with 18L back to the third , the re-opposing Whacker Clan. The winner has gone on to win a grade 1 at Aintree to frank the form and had he not been in the race at Cheltenham we would be looking at a 18L winner of that race who would have gone up an awful lot more than 1lb. As long as he stays he looks easily the best handicapped horse in the field. I’ve managed to tip/back the Irish National and Grand National winners this year in Intense Raffles and I Am Maximus and my main pick for the Scottish version is Git Maker with each way savers on My Silver Lining and Mr Vango.   GIT MAKER 2 points each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 MR VANGO 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 Betfred 1/5th 123456 MY SILVER LINING 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

Max of Stars 1:30 Cheltenham 6/1. Very game filly, no match for Gordon Elliot's Wodhooh twice but that one is probably pretty decent. Sure to give a good account of herself, just depends if one of the Irish ones is too good or not.
1pt win 6/1 (Bet365)
 
Went off too fast and faded.
 
P/L: -2.8pts.

5/1 2nd by a nostril hair, the racing gods aren't with me. Joined on the line and has lost by nose at most. 
Still money back as had it e/w but so frustrating. 
Both suggested bets today have gone off 5/1 and placed so no damage done but could have been a lovely day with a little more luck. 

2pts e/w 1.50 NM  WOODHAY WONDER 10/1 1-5 1/5 not Bog (Ryan Moores mount Blue Prince  look  the main threat)

525 Newmarket 
Carrytheone  8.9 20/1 bet365
Percy's lad. 8.9 16/1 bet365 
Northern express. 8.5 
Pearle dor.  8.5 
Pearle dor sets the standard at 9/2 so the top 2 rated look very good value .....they've not had a run so hard to know where they are fitness wise so I'll keep bets small .....2pts Ew top 2 .... And 0.5 PT rev forecast ...total 9 PTS 

Info...
14:25 Newmarket Lead Artist 7/2

Newmarket 1.50 The first of six races screened by the ITV cameras is the 6F class 2 handicap for three year olds which has attracted a good sized field of 17. This really does have an open look about it with any market moves to be taken seriously. Adrian Nicholls’s Ingleby Ivy is one to keep an eye on having impressed when winning at Ripon by 4 1/4L last September prior to being out of his depth in listed company at York. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Rabaah Racing owned Pen Portrait is another interesting runner who’s making his handicap debut here having been gelded. He beat one of his opponents City House by 3/4L at Wolverhampton last September and is actually 5lb better off now. He could be a player but it’s the John & Thady Gosden trained Gamekeeper who catches my eye. This is his handicap debut and although some of the Gosden runners are need ing their first run this one was last seen only 22 days ago when third in a hot novice stakes at Kempton. William Buick is booked and he’s the one for me.   GAME KEEPER 1 point each way @ 15/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Cheltenham 2.05 The first of two races covered by the ITV cameras is this ten runner mares only handicap chase run over 3m 1F 56 yards. Charlie Longsdon saddles an interesting runner in the shape of I Am Gonna Be who has joined Longsdon from Lucinda Russell and has had a wind operation since last seen 104 days ago. The most likely winner though has to be last year’s runner up Juniper who is trained by Anthony Honeyball in Dorset. The ten year old comes here in excellent form having won her last two starts at Taunton and Wincanton rising 11lb on soft ground. The ground was good when she ran so well to finish runner up to My Silver Lining last year for Harry Whittington and although she is now 12lb higher appears to have improved for the stable switch. She’s the bet here although I can’t resist a small each way saver on I Am Gonna Be.   JUNIPER 1 point each way @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5th 1234 I AM GONNA BE 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 2.25 The 1M Wood Ditton Stakes features thirteen unraced three year olds in a race that is going to be worth following over the following month or so. The best guide here will be the market with the likes of Charlie Appleby’s full brother to Key Victory, First Conquest and the trio of John & Thady Gosden runners Earl Of Rochester, Pipes And Drums and Lead Artist all worth monitoring in the market. The only runner in the field who has future group entries at this stage is the Amo Racing owned, Dominic Ffrench-Davis trained Padesha who is entered in the Dante, Irish & English Derbys and the Irish 2000 Guineas. With little to go on I’ll take a chance on the latter who’s fancy entries surely suggest he can go a bit.   PADESHA 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365   Cheltenham 2.40 A near maximum field of seventeen face the judge for this 2M 4F 56 yard mares handicap hurdle. The race has a wide open look about it with the favourite around the 7/1 mark. Dan Skelton is always to be feared in these type of contests and saddles a brace of runners here in Notnowlinda and Cottie. The latter is ridden for the first time by Harry Skelton on only her fourth start for his brother, having previously been trained in Ireland by Henry De Bromhead. She’s an intriguing runner especially if the money comes for her but the one I like is the Philip Kirby trained Lone Star. She came into this race last year having won five of her previous six starts as a 9/1 chance and finished sixth (beaten 13L). She can race off of a handicap mark 8lb lower today having shown little on her last four starts which all came on unflavoured soft ground. With drying ground very much in her favour she can run a big race with regular pilot Joe Williamson in the saddle.   LONE STAR 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Newmarket 3.00 Next up is the 6F Group 3 Abernant Stakes run over 6F. This has supposedly been the target for Richard Hannon’s Shouldhavebeenaring who was incredibly easy to back at Wolverhampton following a 160 day beak 40 days ago drifting from 11/10 out to 9/4 and running as the market suggested. His trainer stated afterwards his early season target is this race so he has to be given a big chance although the one I like is Karl Burke’s Marshman who unlike the majority of his opponents today comes here with a recent run under his belt which must be a big bonus. That run came in the Cammidge Trophy Stakes at Doncaster on Lincoln day when running a decent neck second to the fast finishing William Haggas runner Montassib (4th Adaay In Devon won handicap since). He’s a consistent sprinter who, with that run behind him, can run well in a competitive renewal.   MARSHMAN 1 point each way @ 13-2 Coral 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 3.35 The meeting’s feature race is the 1M Craven Stakes which has attracted just seven runners this season. John & Thady Gosden’s Eben Shaddad brings the best form to the table with his Dewhurst third to City Of Troy (beaten 4 1/2L at 25/1) making him the joint officially top rated with Andre Fabre’s French challenger Alcantor. A Group 3 winner at Saint Cloud and runner up in the Group 1 Criterium International to David Menusier’s Sunway he has some solid juvenile form although all of his efforts came on soft ground. If there’s one horse in the race who may just be better than that pair then surely it’s the Charlie Appleby trained Native Approach, an imposing son of Too Darn Hot who followed up a debut second at Kempton by taking a maiden in easy style in February. That form will need to be bettered to take this but the vibes are strong and with his trainer having won this race three times in the last five years he has to be the pick here under William Buick.   NATIVE APPROACH 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill