yossa6133

Newmarket 1.50 Seven run in the opener of the three day Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket on the Rowley Mile course. There’s plenty of rain around and I fully expect the ground to be on the easy side for day one and the listed Rosemary Stakes for fillies and mares run over a mile. Best in at the weights here is Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Rolica who is 3lb better off with the penalised Spiritual on their Sandown form in July for 2L. There shouldn’t be much between them but preference is for the Ryan Moore ridden David Menuisier trained Sirona who has plenty of form with soft in the description and only went down by a short neck in a listed contest at Longchamp at the beginning of the month. A reproduction of that effort should put her right in the mix here and she’s the selection.   SIRONA 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor   Newmarket 2.25 A field of eight have declared for the 1M 4F Group 3 Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes for fillies and mares. Best in at the weights is the Harry Charlton trained Time Lock who always runs well on the Rowley Mile course here with form figures of 112 with one of the wins coming in this very race a year ago when coasting home by 4 1/4L. That win was gained on fast ground by the Juddmonte owned five-year-old mare who has also got soft ground form and with Oisin Murphy booked looks the one to be with here with the easy ground likely to be against the likes of Divina Grace and Mistral Star who have both been pulled out twice in their careers when the ground was too soft.   TIME LOCK 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365   Newmarket 3.00 The 7F Group 2 Rockfel Stakes is next up for two-year-old fillies and we have a very warm favourite in the shape of the Sir Michael Stoute trained Formal who’s looked smart on her two victories so far. Impressive on her debut on good to firm ground she showed she can handle easier conditions when again hosing up on officially soft ground at Leicester 47 days later, landing the odds laid on her by a comfortable 2 1/2L. With Ryan Moore required for Aidan O’Brien’s Ecstatic William Buick comes in for the ride. Best of the two O’Brien fillies may well be the aforementioned Ecstatic who lost any real chance she had when sitting down in the stalls as they opened in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster and finishing fifth (of 9) beaten 4 1/4l. She’s better than that. With Sir Michael retiring at the end of the season it would be great to see his smart filly Formal win this and I fully expect her to.   FORMAL 1 point win @ 6/4 bet365   Newmarket 3.35 The Group 2 1M Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Joel Stakes has attracted just six runners and with just 4lb officially covering the sextet has an open look about it. Ease in the ground is not ideal for the John & Thady Gosden runner Lead Artist who was pulled out at Goodwood recently on account of the soft ground. The same owners Task Force has yet to encounter easy ground whilst it can’t be softer enough for recent Group 2 Goodwood winner Ice Max who had the re-opposing Poker Face 1L back in second place and now 5lb better off as the former has to shoulder a 3lb penalty today. The horse that I am attracted to however is the current outsider of the field in the Roger Teal trained Dancing Gemini. Easily his best run this year came on soft ground over a mile, the same conditions as today’s when going down by just half a length in second place to Metropolitan in the French 2000 Guineas back in May. He may not have stayed when 6th in the Epsom Derby and the Coral Eclipse over 1M 4F and 1M 2F respectively and possibly found the ground against him when fifth to Lead Artist at Goodwood in the Thoroughbred Stakes. Back on his favoured ground and trip and with Tom Marquand in the plate for the first time he looks a value bet.   DANCING GEMINI 1 point win @ 7/1 bet365

Week Four NFL Predictions
(1)   Bengals to win ATS -4.5 points @ 10/11
The Bengals are 0-3 and let me down last week. This week I can’t see how the Benegals will fail to beat the Panthers. I can see a ten point victory (if not more) for the Bengals in this must win game.
 (2)    Bears to win ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11
Another team which let me down in week 3 was the Bears. However I saw some progress. At home the Bears are much better and I see them defeating a depleted Rams team.
 (3)   Eagles to win ATS -2.0 points at 10/11
The Eagles defence stopped the Saints bandwagon in its tracks last week. Saquon Barkley should have a good weekend.
 (4)   Steelers to win ATS  -1.5 points @ 10/11
The Steelers will be all over Anthony Richardson who is prone to a lot of mistakes. The Steelers run offence should also be successful against the Colts who have the worst run defence in the NFL.
 (5)   Cardinals to win ATS -3.5 points @ Evens
Kyler Murray has a lot of players to throw to. Contrast that to rookie Jayden Daniels for Washington. Washington is also travelling across country.
  YTD P15 W5 D1 L9 Staked 90 pts, returned 3.73 pts = loss of 86.27 pts.
  Bet:
10 x 1 point trebles
5 x 3 point 4 timers
5 point accumulator
30 points staked
All prices Bet365

Newmarket 1.15 The day’s terrestrial TV action starts with a 7F class 2 fillies nursery which has attracted eleven runners. It has an open enough look about it with recent winners Ghost Run, Naina, Harmonia, Geo and Magic Love all having claims. My pick is the latter who is trained by Harry Charlton and ridden by Trevor Whelan. The grey filly made a winning handicap debut at Thirsk on good to soft ground earlier this month when well backed. She ran on well to score by 1 1/4L and this step up to 7F looks likely to suit as there’s plenty of stamina on her dam’s side. She’s been raised 6lb for that victory but may have more to give now at this trip and can reward an each way bet.   MAGIC LOVE 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Haydock 1.30 The first of two races covered by the ITV cameras to be raced on very soft ground. Ten go to post for this class 2 1M handicap in which the ability to handle conditions will be paramount. Wednesday’s Goodwood winner Rhoscolyn will be one of them but he does have a 5lb penalty and top weight of 10-5 which will make this tough. Irish raider Earls is another who will love conditions and can run well for Gavin Cromwell but the value pick may well be the George Boughey trained Amo Racing owned Raadobarg who sports a first time visor and has dropped 8lb for his last four starts which have come on unsuitably good fast ground. 8lb lower today than his excellent Irish Lincoln third at The Curragh in March he looks well handicapped and will relish the sloppy conditions.   RAADOBARG 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Newmarket 1.50 The first of three Group races for two-year-olds at Newmarket today is this Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes run over a mile. The form horse, and highest rated, is James Owen flag bearer Wimbledon Hawkeye who took his form to a new level last time out when runner up to current Derby favourite The Lion In Winter in the Acomb Stakes at York. He’s yet to encounter any cut in the ground however and with the ground looking likely to ride on the soft side preference is for Charlie Fellowes’s Luther who he has stated is the best he’s ever trained. A Salisbury maiden win preceded a 1/2L second to subsequent Grade 1 Canadian winner New Century which in hindsight was no disgrace before getting back to winning ways in a hot eight runner listed race at Haydock. He too has yet to encounter easy ground but his mother won on easy ground and he’s the pick.   LUTHER 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill   Newmarket 2.25 A field of eight run in this Group 1 Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes for juvenile fillies. The two fillies at the top of the market are both unbeaten in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes winner Lake Victoria for Aidan O’Brien and the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner Babouche trained by Ger Lyons. Neither of the two Irish fillies have encountered easy ground although on breeding both could actually relish it. Preference of the duo is the latter who looks very smart. Owned by today’s sponsors she beat subsequent Group 1 winner Whistlejack by a length and a half at The Curragh and with her full sister Zarinsk a three time winner on soft ground can run well if coping with the sloppy conditions. Lowther winner Celandine (Leovanni held) may prefer it faster with her trainer Ed Walker stating that the “quicker the ground the better” for her. With the ground testing the two French fillies are maybe the value bets. P Cottier’s Daylight is already a winner on heavy ground and her third last time out behind Whistlejack and Rashabar in the Group 1 Prix Morny reads very well. Back against her own sex and with slight doubts on the ground against the front two Irish fillies she looks the bet although the F-H Graffard’s trained Rayevka who impressed in the mud last time out and is worth a small each way saver in a terrific contest.   DAYLIGHT 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill RAYEVKA 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 123     Curragh 2.35 Just five assemble for the Group 2 Beresford Stakes for two-year-olds run over 1M. A strong fancy here is the Jessie Harrington trained Hotazhell who followed up a Group 3 victory at Leopardstown in July with a 1L second to the useful Henry Matisse in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes here over 7F with Scotty Champ a length back in third. The latter has gone on to beat Henry Matisse in the Group 1 National Stakes to frank the form and Hotazhell will be hard to beat. British raider Windlord who was impressive when winning at York and 12L Galway maiden winner Trinity College look the dangers but neither have achieved as much as the selection who will be ridden today by Shane Foley on what, hopefully, could be a big day for Harrington.   HOTAZHELL 1 point win @ 5/2 William Hill   Newmarket 3.00 The Group 1 Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes run over 6F for two-year-old colts will have eight runners and a warm favourite in the shape of the Aidan O’Brien trained Whistlejacket who will be very hard to beat. Last seen winning the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville in August from Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar on good to soft ground he has 7lb and upwards ahead of his field on official ratings and can even run a bit below par and still win this. The two most likely to take advantage if he doesn’t run up to his form are stable companion Ides Of March who’s chasing a hat trick of victories following a maiden and Group 3 win at The Curragh in good style and the Charlie Appleby trained Shadow Of Light who was pulled out of the Mill Reef Stakes last weekend at Newbury due to the heavy ground. His Gimcrack form at York has worked out well and he can be the one to chase home Whistlejack.   WHISTLEJACK 1 point win @ Evens William Hill   Haydock 3.15 Ten run in this class 2 5F handicap in which I have a strong fancy. Top weight and current favourite Wiltshire comes here having been upped 6lb for a win on the all-weather at Newcastle in June. A winner on good to soft he has been soundly beaten on his two career starts on soft and makes the market here for my pick the seven-year-old Alberma Gold who adores the mud. His figures on heavy ground read 11194 with the ninth when not staying at 7F and the 4th when not disgraced in listed company. David O’Meara’s mudlark is 11lb lower than when winning at Doncaster 11 months ago on heavy ground and this will be the first time since that he has had his conditions. The only negative is the draw as he’s drawn in one on the wing but as long as that’s not an issue here he looks worth a decent bet with Mark Winn on top.   ALBERAMA GOLD 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 123   Newmarket 3.40 The day’s big handicap and feature race is the bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap with thirty five horses spread actress the Rowley Mile racing over 9F. High numbers have had an advantage in recent years so with that in mind my short list comprises of last year’s third Bopedro who can race off of a 6lb lower mark today and teed up for this with his best run of the season when runner up to Johan at Doncaster, Norwalk Havoc who I can not understand why he is currently three times the price of the gambled on favourite This Songisforyou when he finished 1 1/2L ahead of him in a Curragh handicap at the Galway festival and is now 5lb better off. The softer the better for Jessie Harrington’s charge and he will be my number one pick. Also worth a mention and a small stakes ew saver is the Iain Jardine trained Paddy The Squire who looks massively overpriced on his Hamilton form with Theoryofeverything when going down by a short head on his first run for a year and is now 5lb better off. Again he is four times the price of Theoryofeverything and must surely be closer in the betting. John & Thady Gosden’s Roi De France has yet to encounter easy ground and lacks experience and with the last four winners priced at 40/1,40/1, 25/1 and 20/1 it seems its a race to look away from the front of the market.   NORWALK HAVOC 1 point each way @ 18/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 PADDY THE SQUIRE 1/2 point each way @ 66/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

Because of the heavy ground i will giving Goodwood a swerve today,while i have never liked betting on the all weather at Kempton.
 
There looks to be value on my selections elsewhere though, and course and distance winner Fourofakind at 7/2 is tempting price in a 9 runner handicap at Perth (13.52).Half an hour later at the same course, Bowling Buddy at 11/4 this morning, is bigger than price than i expected.The Bowen/Murphy Combination should always be respected at this venue.
Not sure if anything is amiss with Turkey and Ham in the 16.13 at Perth. A beaten favourite last time and an incredible drifter at 10/1 this morning.This Irish trained mare could bomb out big time,but if she were to win -i would never forgive myself for missing out on such a big price.The last race at Perth can go to Inspector Lynley. The morning 11/2 looks more than fair with Betfred and you get a free bet if your selection finishes second.
 
Over at Redcar,i would not put anyone off True Wisdom at 7/2 in the 16.32 or  Maris Angel(5/2) in the 17.05,and while there can never be a good thing in the concluding 17 runner handicap at 17.40,i will throwing a few shekles at last time out Thirsk Winner, Count Palantine.The morning offer of 11/1 is much bigger than i had about him on my tissue.
 
All Prices Quoted are from Betfred.

Couple of decent looking races at Listowel today. 3.45 Hurdle and then the Kerry national at 4.20 . My selections are ….
Walking On Glass 10/1 in the 3.45 and I’m hoping The Real Whacker 9/1  has too much class in the 4.20 . 

405 good par 212 
Botanical 225 242 467 
Cenhaan 218 193 411 
Maxi king 208 205 413 
Passion and glory 227 217 444
Savvy victory. 220 225 445
Heartache tonight 208 196 404 
Macduff 210 212 422 
Novus 213 226 439 
Persist 195 212 407 
Terre de vega 181 187 368
Par for this is 212 so terre ...heartache ...maxi ...and arguably macduff even are short ....overall botanical is way ahead overall and has a class rating of 225 .......223 is group 3 so this can be considered a drop in class ......short priced at 2/1 but you can see why 
Botanical 10 PT win 3.4 
5 PT win doubles above 2 bets 

Finally remembered to complete the P/L for the season. Stakes were 80.5 and the returns were 87.04 so a profit of just under 7pts. Can never be downbeat about making a profit although ideally it would have been nice for it to be higher, but I am well in front since I started tipping on the Aussie jumps which is the key thing. Sadly we did lose Mighty Oasis in the Grand National and he will be a big miss to the jumping scene next season. That season will start up again in March and in the meantime I will be putting some flat previews up as we reach the big Autumn races in Australian in the next couple of months.

408 h Scoops Ahoy 10s ew

The arc is only a couple of weeks away so I rated the current dozen top in betting and it came out as these few best rated 
Sosie. 648 
Look de vega 649 
Shin emperor. 675 
Los Angeles. 686 
Delius. 616 
Al riffa 641 
Bluestocking 706 
I know a few people like this race especially @Zilzalian...on my ratings... bluestocking looks a fantastic value bet at 12/1 .....is this on your radar ????
Plus am I right would receive 3 lb from the males ?
Rossa Ryan seems to think she will go there with a serious chance so it's caught my eye ....especially on good soft to soft ground ..mind you I'm not even sure is Def in ??....might have to be supplemented ....but if she is I can see the odds tumbling  

615 Fairy 
 
SOUTH SHORE ISLAND has the profile of a horse  improving and has the 3 lb allowance today to help .....surely has to run well ..only .danger is kings thistle I can see 
5 PT win 9/4 

@LEE-GRAYS  Not So Sleepy wins on final racecourse appearance. What a hero. May a long and happy retirement be had for him.

Good call mate. AJ was pathetic with his glass jaw. Time to call it a day I think for him 

Gone for Dynamite Daniel Dubois to win by stoppage @ 6/1 (Betfair and PP). This feels like a who lands first kind of fight, I can't see it going the distance. DDD coming into his prime having just turned 27 and his confidence will be high after his last 2 fights (Miller at 300lb+ takes some stopping). Apparently he hurt AJ in sparring which could play on Joshua's mind.
AJ could spark him out first but 6/1 seems too big to me.

I wanted to go big on Stoke but they sacked their manager in the week, so that's introduced some uncertainty. I will still oppose Hull who are trying to play total football...without the players to do it and it was more kamikaze football in their last game.
1pt win Stoke 11/10 Bet365 (2 goal ahead early payout).
 
P/L: -4.55pts

I wanted to go big on Stoke but they sacked their manager in the week, so that's introduced some uncertainty. I will still oppose Hull who are trying to play total football...without the players to do it and it was more kamikaze football in their last game.
1pt win Stoke 11/10 Bet365 (2 goal ahead early payout).
 
P/L: -4.55pts

I'm on Bedia at 4.4 so hopefully they at least score amidst all the carnage!

I wanted to go big on Stoke but they sacked their manager in the week, so that's introduced some uncertainty. I will still oppose Hull who are trying to play total football...without the players to do it and it was more kamikaze football in their last game.
1pt win Stoke 11/10 Bet365 (2 goal ahead early payout).
 
P/L: -4.55pts

After being inspired by @Mrjol. heroics last weekend. I've decided the real money in football is not in going for glory, it is in fact finding players who foul, cheat and swear lol.
With that said, here are my four angrymen of the weekend:
Player to be booked 4 fold, odds 87.42
Antonee Robinson (Fulham)
Adam Smith (Bournemouth)
Christian Norgaard (Brentford)
Nelson Semedo (Wolves)
Bet365 (player void if doesn't start)

Stoke v Hull in the Championship gets the weekend underway domestically on Friday night with games in Spain, Germany and Italy's top flights as well. Enough to ease us into a busy weekend.
A whopping 8 Premier League games on Saturday with West Ham v Chelsea and Palace v Man U topping and tailing the half dozen 3:00 games.
Plenty of action in pretty much every other league you could care to mention as well along with FA Trophy and Welsh Cup action for those of you of a more esoteric bent. 
On Sunday, Man City and Arsenal meet in what will be the big game of the weekend for many and there's a Milan derby for those looking a little further afield. Finally there are a smattering of games on Monday to bring things to a close.
No shortage of games to go at so let's see what takes our collective fancy. Thoughts and bets below please.

Week Three NFL Predictions
It’s week three already, time certainly goes faster as I get older. Hopefully we shall see some more predictable victories this week.
(1)   Bengals to win ATS -7.5 points @ 10/11
The Bengals are 0-2. So I am expecting a big game from the Bengals who could have beaten the Super Bowl champions in week 2. Washington beat the Giants thanks to 7 field goals and no touchdowns. I can’t see how the Washington rookie QB will cope against the Bengals defence. Joe Burrows gets going here.
 (2)   Lions to win ATS -3.0 points at 20/21
The Lions are 1-1 having taken care of the Rams in week one. They lost to a good Tampa side in week two despite having 200 yards more offence. I expect the offence to have better luck this time. In a shoot-out I prefer Jarod Goff and the Lions to the Cardinals.
 (3)   Browns to win ATS  -6.0 points @ 20/23
The Browns have played two completely different games. In week one, they were decimated by the Cowboys but in week two they took care of the Jags. With more confidence Deshaun Watson can drive this team to victory against the Giants.
 (4)   Bears to win Moneyline @ Evens
The Packers showed everyone how to beat the Colts. Just run the ball on them. The Bears defence is solid only allowing three points to the Texans in week two.
 (5)   Texans to win ATS -2.5 points @ 10/11
Like a lot of the pundits, I am keen on the Texans this year. This week they go to Minnesota to take on the Vikings who were fortunate to beat the 49Ers last week. Everything the 49Ers tried appeared to go wrong. Luck has a habit of balancing out so I will take the Texans (who are 2-0 with narrow wins over the Colts and Bears) to get the win.
YTD P10 W4 D1 L5 Staked 60 pts, returned 3.73 pts = loss of 56.27
  Bet:
10 x 1 point trebles
5 x 3 point 4 timers
5 point accumulator
30 points staked
All prices Bet365

Turned a big corner in my operation recovery today ....feeling much more myself so getting stuck into big races ......I've been very impressed with the class form rating so I've rated the ayr bronze cup using it and it flagged 3 horses 
Monsieur Kodi 347 16/1 
Vince lamour 336 16/1 
Havana rum. 336 16/1 
Trilby 327 
Top 3 are quite a bit ahead of 4th and rest of field and hail from all powerful  Fahey and easterby stables who do well in this race .....on top of that strangely they are all three drawn together on the high rail so if the ratings holds they can all drag each other along with the rail to help ......I'll try 5pt wins all 3 with forecasts 

Tottenham and both teams to score at 3.40 with MGM for me this evening - can't see much else that appeals.

One to watch .........
Galveston, a two million guinea Frankel colt makes his debut for AoB in the 5,40, a 2yo 7f maiden race, at Naas
Over 2 million quid for a racehorse ........ sounds like a hell of a gamble. There's a long list of million quid + horses who flop on the track
Snaafi Dancer anyone ?
Snaafi Dancer was the first horse to go for over 10 million dollars at auction 40 years ago (over 30 million in current values)
He never raced. It was reported that he was so slow in training that it would have been embarrassing to run him in public. He was retired to stud duty where he was discovered to have fertility problems. From two years of breeding, he sired only four foals, three of which raced with very limited success. 
Just think how many lottery tickets you could have bought with that 10 million dollars !
 

Gracious Leader 5:00 Yarmouth (4/1 Skybet). Hopefully too good for this lot back on turf for new trainer.
*****NON RUNNER*****
 

Gracious Leader 5:00 Yarmouth (4/1 Skybet). Hopefully too good for this lot back on turf for new trainer.
*****NON RUNNER*****