yossa6133

Lord Accord 6:05 Uttox (16/1 Betbet365). Taken some of the early 16/1 in case it shortens. Had a poor season last time but well handicapped as a result, as high as 137 over fences and runs off 118 here  back over hurdles(C/D winner off 128 back in '21). Ran well after a similar break at Worcester in Sept'22 when 3rd behind 2 decent yardsticks. Fingers crossed he can have a bit of a revival on favoured ground/trip off this reduced mark.
1pt win 16/1
CASHED OUT
P/L: +7pts.

AW selection
Wolverhampton 7.00
SHAKA

Huge mistake by Neil Callan yesterday , which in itself is a surprise , riding Cloud Cover in the Listed race at Chelmsford .Said by the trainer that this race worth over £50,000 was the horses main summer target . Only horse with any worthwhile AW form , CD winner a couple of times . Perfect ride all the way round until the straight . Travelling all over them , took a pull , decided for whatever reason to go for the rails run , which is the last thing you do at Chelmsford , David Probert beat him to the punch up the middle of the track , finished 2nd ...........Contrast that with Thor Hammer Hansens ride in the German Derby . As they straightened up with Andreas Starke going clear against the far rail , brought His horse from the back right over the other side of the track , bombed down the near rail and got up near the line....Genius.....only trouble is , i backed the 2nd in that race also !!!!!!

Worst value of the day must be Kikuli in this 307 Deuville up against some good proven horses. should be about 8 or 10/1 in my book

B/Fwd L15's - 88.79 P/l RC incl L15's = -138.22
Had 4 goes on the L15's = 6 pts
3.15 Chlm Pinafore 1.65 win at 4.8 = poss profit 6.14
Total stakes = 7.65
Good luck to anyone playing after a surfeit of Football and Tennis yesterday

I am not convinced city of troy is the best thing since sliced bread. The derby imho wasn't that great but we will see. I was in agreement with @richard-westwood that stay alert was the best ew play but it has been pulled. so at 10/1 ghostwriter is in play. Typical hyped horse scaring off the opposition and spineless trainers not supporting group 1 races. So Troy ends up becoming what "they" say it is by lack of competition. On another front, looking around the race cards Clive Cox could have a very good day today.

Update:-
The ground has gone soft at Sandown following 16mm overnight and further showers likely. Great idea again to put 8mm of water on the course earlier in the week!
I wouldn't want to be with Perotto now who it seems is a fast ground horse (Ryan Moore stated he doesn't want soft in his Betfair column) and having backed him at the 48 hour stage can only hope he's pulled out this morning.
The other three selections at Sandown should handle the mud and there's a couple of mudlarks in the last two races that I think are worth backing in a each way double. ASHARIBA (4.12) and DAMBUSTER (4.47).
Good Luck today all.
 

Coral eclipse ...
City of Troy is well ahead on ratings here .....I have him on 9.4 with the next horse 8.9 ......bunching up behind are ghostwriter ....jayarbe ..dancing Gemini and stay alert all closely bunched .....it's an 8 horse race and there is some rain forecast .....so that creates question marks for the places .....I just think the 66/1 on STAY ALERT based on her dahlia run if the course doesn't get much rain looks way way overpriced .....probably didnt like the soft ground lto but if the ground stays good or good sft at worse I think she'd have a chance of running into a place at a huge price .....like I said in a 8 horse race it's a bit of interest ....I'll wait to make sure all 8 run first and if the ground goes soft then it's no good ......but 8 runners on good(stick 6.5+)... and I'm in Ew 
 

Sandown 1.50 Ten speedsters run in the first of seven races covered by the ITV cameras this afternoon for the 5F Group 3 Coral Charge. Adam West’s Live In The Dream is the highest rated but was last time when flopping at Haydock so I’ll be looking elsewhere for the likely winner. Three of these ran in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot with Henry Candy’s Twilight Calls finishing the best of the trio in sixth just 1/2L ahead of Ed Walker’s Makarova with last year’s winner Equality way back in last place. Candy has yet to have a winner this season and it may pay to look elsewhere with the rapidly improving Desperate Hero looking decent each way value. Jack Channon’s four year old has looked good in winning handicaps at Goodwood (heavy) and Hamilton (good) over the minimum trip and with just 9lb to find with the top rated can run well under Callum Rodriguez who was in the saddle last time.   DESPERATE HERO 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 123   Haydock 2.05 A field of fourteen have declared for this competitive looking 1M 6F three-year-old handicap. William Haggas has an excellent record in this race having won it three of the last four years and with his stable in as good a form now as at any time of the season can score with his lightly raced Sea The Stars colt Dramatic Star. An easy winner of a Hamilton maiden last time he enters handicaps off of what appears to be a fair mark of 87 with the step up 3F looking sure to suit.   DRAMATIC STAR 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365   Sandown 2.25 Just ten have declared for the 1M class 2 Coral Challenge Handicap but chances can be given to many. The only front runner in the race is Ed Bethell’s Port Lynas who will appreciate stepping back up in trip and if he can get over from his wide draw can run a big race. He may however be run down late on by last year’s winner Perotto. Trained at Newmarket by Roger Varian, he’s 8lb higher this year but made a highly promising re-appearance when third in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot with Holloway Boy and Metal Merchant behind so with Ryan Moore booked he looks sure to run a big race in his usual hood. Back him each way with any firm paying four places.   PEROTTO 2 points each way @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5th 1234   Haydock 2.40 The Group 2 Lancashire Oaks is run over 1M 4F and has attracted eight fillies or mares. Sir Mark Prescott’s Tiffany makes a quick turnaround having won the Group 3 Hoppings Fillies Stakes at Newcastle last week and as the highest rated in the field has major claims. The Gosden’s have won this race four times in the last ten years and are represented here by their four year old filly Queen Of The Pride who held off the re-appearing Lady Boba by a short head over course and distance last time in the Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes and can confirm that form under Oisin Murphy and take the first prize.   QUEEN OF THE PRIDE 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Sandown 3.00 Nine three year old fillies go to post for the 1m listed Coral Distaff. Andrew Balding’s Clove Hitch was visually very impressive last time out when spread eagling her field at Newbury and looks sure to run well under Ryan Moore but she has 5lb to find with the top rated filly in the race, George Boughey’s Soprano and she’s the pick. She relished the step up to a mile under Billy Loughnane in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot when beating Strutting by half a length and if in the same sort of form looks the one they all have to beat with Loughnane retaining the ride.   SOPRANO 1 point win @ 2/1 BetVictor   Haydock 3.15 A bumper maximum field of seventeen race for the 1M 4F bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap, one of the most competitive middle distance handicaps in the calendar. Plenty can be given chances including the Andrew Balding Relentless Voyage who ran well in enough in group company last time and Roger Varian’s La Yakel although he hasn’t been seen since last October. The best value in the race may well lie with Eve Johnson Houghton’s Sheer Rocks. He may well have needed his run in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot when very easy to back and not being totally disgraced in finishing mid division in tenth place. A dual winner on different terrains last season he’s only 3lb higher than his last win and with additional places looks value each way under Callum Shepherd.   SHEER ROCKS 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Sandown 3.35 Just eight go to post for the feature race of the day, the £750,000 guaranteed Coral-Eclipse run over 10F where the classic generation take on their elders. It’s very hard to look past this year’s impressive Derby winner City Of Troy who represents Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. He’s officially rated 10lb and higher superior to his seven rivals and it will be a major shock were he not to win this dropping back in trip and enhance his trainers good record in the race having won it on two of the last three years with St Marks Basilica and Paddington. Clive Cox’s Ghostwriter who ran fourth in the French Derby last time is maybe the one to chase him home. A no bet race but one to watch and savour.  

Little treble from various tips from X/Youtube
World of Dreams 4:00 Newton Abbot 4/5
Dancingontheedge 5:10 Newton Abbot 2/1
Good Earth 6:00 Beverly 9/2
 
0.25pt treble @ 27/1 with Betvictor.
 
P/L: +7.00pts.
 
World of Dreams jumped like a pig in the first leg 🤮

Little treble from various tips from X/Youtube
World of Dreams 4:00 Newton Abbot 4/5
Dancingontheedge 5:10 Newton Abbot 2/1
Good Earth 6:00 Beverly 9/2
 
0.25pt treble @ 27/1 with Betvictor.
 
P/L: +7.00pts.
 
World of Dreams jumped like a pig in the first leg 🤮

I fancy Elliot at 6:25 @ Bellewstone.
But I'm doing a Skybet 6x doubles.

240 Dashing Harry 11/2
Gets good ground 

I'm trying to weigh up what I have seen in this tournament compared with what I have seen from these teams and players over the last few years. If we're going on form, then I can see the winners of these matches being Spain, France (on penalties! ), Switzerland, and Netherlands.
However, there is that old saying about timing your tournament right. It does feel like Spain in particular have looked very impressive but have they peaked too early? The same could be argued for Switzerland. You just feel that the experience within teams like Portugal, France, and England means they will pop any minute in this tournament. That said, I've always felt Gareth Southgate is the weakness holding England back and if one thing is stopping them from reaching their potential it's him.
If I was forced to back a four-fold I would go for:
Germany (Spain have looked far better but wouldn't it be typically football for the team that has looked less compelling and has the far worse recent head-to-head record to win due to home advantage!)
France (it feels like they've been in second gear so far and I'm not sure Portugal have enough in them to cope with a French side that is surely going to go up a gear or two now)
England (Switzerland have shown their best already and you have to wonder how much more they've got left to give? England could finally thrive on being pressed by the Swiss)
Netherlands (I've actually been really impressed by Turkey and it'll be close but Turkey have still had periods of games where they've been over-reliant on their back-line and keeper. Netherlands feel like they can turn it on at any moment and when they do they look dangerous)

More out of hope than expectation this time but I've had to have a few quid on an Mbappe hattrick at 80/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (or Paddypower).

Well over a 100/1 shot in this game from a purely subjective approach! I know your regard for Mbappe is at odds with my pricing and the markets though. Hopefully your faith is rewarded at last. Personally I wouldn't be that keen on backing >2.5 total goals in this game let alone one player to bag 3. But if anyone can do it...
Quick take on the 4 ties having had a look at form against comparable opposition. Best bets based on if you gave me a freebie to use on the game.
Spain v Germany is pretty much priced as a coin toss which equates to Spain being the better team but their superiority countered by Germany's home advantage. My gut feel is that the gap may be slightly bigger than that. Germany are 6-6-4 in games against teams ranked higher than them. Spain are 6-9-4 against teams ranked in the top 20. Given that over 40% of KO ties end in a draw the best bet for me here is a no brainer. The draw at 3.25 on the exchange.
Portugal v France sees France favoured. They're 8-5-3 v top 20 teams whereas Portugal are 3-3-6. Given both team's form in front of goal and the stats about KO draws the stalemate is a real runner but a bit shorter than the first game. I'll go with France to qualify at 7/10 with Uni. Take them to win in 90 if you can't bear to bet odds on.
England v Switzerland is a puzzle. You could make an argument for England being too big if you think their tournament is going to spark into life. They were pre-tournament favourites and still head the market, they're ranked 4th in the World 15 places ahead of the Swiss. They have a wealth of attacking talent at their disposal. But, if you confine your assessment to what we've seen in this tournament, you could easily argue that they're false favourites. My gut says England will make it through but my wallet isn't convinced. A token shout for the draw at 3.05. Penalties no surprise in this one.
Netherlands v Turkey. The game with the biggest favourite and the highest goals expectation. Turkey 3-1-8 against top 20 opponents, the Dutch 10-3-3 against opponents ranked between 21 and 40 (this tie pitches the 7th ranked team against the 40th). Anything possible (the Dutch self-imploding, Turkey continuing to over-perform) but I'm inclined towards the Netherlands justifying favouritism and the Turks running out of steam. If you twist my arm I'll go Netherlands win and btts at 3.65.

More out of hope than expectation this time but I've had to have a few quid on an Mbappe hattrick at 80/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (or Paddypower).

More out of hope than expectation this time but I've had to have a few quid on an Mbappe hattrick at 80/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (or Paddypower).

Project geofin 445 hay big Eye-catcher last time needs cut in ground been entered up 3 times but non runner because of ground says good yo soft  today must have a good chance today gl all

8.00 tipperary - ordered lives 14/1
7.25 tipperary - ballywilliam boy 20/1 
5.40 tipperary - someones wish 12/1
 
 
 
 

I had a nice rfc yesterday with Tony Carrolls' two in first. I'd like to emulate that with Jardines' two in the 3.30 Msselburgh.
I like Gobi Sunset best of the two with claimer. 

Airman                                                              4 55 Tsk/        1/40th of a pt ew     12/1
Call Me Ginger                                                 4 55 Tsk/        1/40th of a pt ew     28/1

Final update on this from me - e-mail reply from Fred - happy days 😀
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Well blow me down with a feather - I've just had a look at the website and it appears that all the BOG banners are back again on the racing cards - I'll have to hang up my jacket again and get stuck in.
Funny thing is that I left Skybet for the same reason - very few races are covered by BOG there - time to get the coffee on and reading glasses also - happy days 😀