yossa6133

I had a good win on Tremblant in the Cambridgeshire Hcap at Newmarket ....... 16/1 if memory serves
about 40 years ago
I've spent all my winnings now

It's coming in at 186 ....so quite a bit behind the others ?......I've rated all the Irish races and can't find any value there at all ..either..bookies seem to have it all sewn up so no interest  there ....just this one race today 
But yours is on a good mark 

I've had a fiver Ew myself so nice doing business 😉

3.50 M.Ras - Post no Bills - 12/1 EW (1/5th 4 places) - Has been dropping in the weights ( -12lbs in 5 runs) and has won from 9lbs higher within the last year. Sean Bowen rides for Ryan Potter who is 1 win, 1 place, from 4 runners in last 2 weeks. At 12/1 and with 4 places with most bookmakers it looks a solid EW bet.
4.00 Cart - Vocal Duke - 16/1 EW (1/5th 4 places) - Course specialists Charlotte Jones and James Moffit team up for this ( as usual). Last win was over 2 years ago and that was off 111 ( today 105). Again, with 4 places looks worth a bet.
Maybe more later.

Super sprint 
It ain't two. 317 0.22
Vingaard. 305 0.38 
Kaadi. 294.  0.52
Do it now 290 0.96 
Top rated has a big form rating ....but Ew value with 4 places  is  DO IT NOW 14/1 ...is fourth on form but rapidly improving and could be better than rating 
1pt Ew 
 

Newbury 1.50 The first of seven races covered by ITV on a day lacking too much quality is this listed 1M 2F Steventon Stakes which has attracted a small field of just five. Owners Shadwell have a brace of runners including last year’s winner Al Aasy who is three from four at the track but we havn’t seen him for 287 days with Phantom Flight also heading here following a long break. Shadwell’s retained jockey Jim Crowley has presumably opted to ride the Owen Burrows three year old Alyanaabi who has finished a credible fifth in the Group one’s 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes this season and this is a drop in grade for the colt. He will be hard to beat even if he has been well found in the market.   ALYANAABI 2 points win @ 4/5 William Hill   Market Rasen 2.05 The first of three tricky handicaps shown by ITV from Market Rasen is this 2M 4 1/2F class 3 handicap hurdle which has a wide open look about it. Jonjo & Anthony O’Neill’s top weight Pyffo is chasing a hat trick so would have to be on the short list along with the already supported Flying Fortune from the very much in form Peter & Michael Bowen stable. One horse that does look over priced and is worthy of a small stakes each way bet is Alex Hales’s ten year old Breaking Waves. He’s not been the most consistent or genuine horses over the years but did nothing wrong when running out a 8L winner at Uttoxeter three weeks ago when seemingly unfancied at 28/1. He had the Skelton horse Clararose the best part of 12L behind him that day and despite now 8lb wrong with that horse at the weights can conform the form with a horse that is priced up considerably shorter.   BREAKING WAVES 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 2.25 A field of ten run in this class 2 handicap over a trip of two miles and half a furlong. Hughie Morrison has been amongst the winners recently and saddles his Kyle Of Lochalsh with Hollie Doyle in the saddle. An easy winner in the mud at Salisbury on his penultimate run he proved at Royal Ascot that he can go on any terrain when running a fine third to Pledgeofallegiance in the Ascot Stakes Handicap on good to firm ground. He holds Temporize who was 5L behind that day and looks the one to be on in this trappy looking handicap in which bottom weight and recent Ascot winner Dancing In Paris looks a danger.   KYLE OF LOCHALSH 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor   Market Rasen 2.40 A maximum field of seventeen have declared for the £60,000 guaranteed Summer Handicap Hurdle run over 2M 125 yards. The race has a wide open look about it with many holding claims including Kerry Lee’s Black Poppy who we haven’t seen since last Boxing Day and David Pipe’s Manuelito towards the foot of the handicap but the selection is the Dan Skelton trained Mostly Sunny who has only had the four runs over timber so may have some more improvement to come. He’ll have to turn around his latest form when running second to the re-opposing Maxcel of Mel Rowley’s. Only a nose separated the pair at Uttoxeter three weeks ago and with a one pound turnaround in the weights may be able to gain his revenge in this valuable race.   MOSTLY SUNNY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Newbury 3.00 The Group 3 Hackwood Stakes has attracted ten runners this year running over a distance of 6F. A case can be made for several including three year old’s Karl Burke trained Elite Status and William Haggas’s Lake Forest but its the ultra consistent six year old Regional that is the pick. Trained by Ed Bethell he’s finished runner up in a Group 2 and Group 1 this season with his latest one length second to the Aussie sprinter Asfoora in KIng Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot a career best. That was over 5F but he wont mind stepping up a furlong here and with the ground drying all the time another big run is expected.   REGIONAL 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor   Market Rasen 3.15 Another maximum field of sixteen for the feature race of the afternoon at Market Rasen in the £100,000 guaranteed Summer Plate Handicap Chase run over 2M 5 1/2F. Like the previous two handicaps televised by ITV on the card the race has a wide open look about it. It may be worth chancing Peter & Michael Bowen’s old timer Francky Du Berlais who has an excellent record in this very race having won it in 2021 and 2022 on good ground but flopping last year when the rain scuppered his changes with the ground turning soft. He’s now racing off of a mark of 131 which is 8lb and 6lb lower than his two wins in this race so is without doubt well handicapped. He’s run third in handicap chases at Perth and Cartmel this season to prove his well being and although he’s not won since the victory in this race back in 2022 can run well each way under trainer’s son James Bowen.   FRANCKY DU BERLAIS 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Newbury 3.35 A decent sized field of nineteen run in the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. The best in at the weights here is actually Karl Burke’s Kaatibb who should run well along with Hugo Palmer’s It Ain’t Two under Oisin Murphy. Only two of the field have future group entries and I’ll chance the Group 2 Lowther Stakes entry Time For Sandals trained by the very much in form Harry Eustace at Newmarket. She made a winning racecourse debut at Kempton as a 10/1 chance last month beating a well bred and touted Andrew Balding favourite and having been sold for only 35,000 euros gets in here with a nice weight. She’s the each way pick although it may also be worth a small stakes each way saver on the other future group entered Caburn. Trained by Jack Jones he made a winning racecourse debut when beating the subsequent easy winner Brighton Boy at Salisbury last month and has since been given an entry in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York.   TIME FOR SANDALS 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 CABURN 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234  

6.35 Hamilton 
Jordan Electrics 26 9/2 (my odds 13/2)
Silky Wilkie 24 11/1 (my odds 7/1)
Spangled Mac 23 13/2 ( my odds 7/1)
Silky Wilkie the value bet 2 points win 

2nd 9/1 

4.05 chepstow - vape 10/1 (ill also have a reverse forecast with airshow )

Epsom*

Horse seems a bit mental so I was trying to find some quotes about it. Apparently the Detective Chief Inspector investigating the Sycamore Gap felling is called Rebecca Fenney-Menzies. Seems like a glitch in the matrix or something.
 
Forget that, must have been named because of that! First race was after the event 😂

Just put this one up early. Put it in my tracker after Saturday's disappointment with the comments - " well handicapped, apprentice jock couldn't get to settle and cost any chance, look for a pro jockey riding". Well today Clifford Lee takes over and it has been 'nibbled' in the betting.
4.55 Ham Sycamore Gap - 8/1 with 365 (who are paying 3 places) .. so have had a good EW bet. 
May be others later but this one up early.

6.10 Worcester 
Kauto The King 27 7/1 ( my odds 4/1)
Lermoos  Legend 27 9/2 ( my odds 4/1
Theonlywayiswessex 23 5/2 ( my odds 5/1
I was going to have 1 point each on Kauto and Lermoos as they are both top rated and they were both 7/1 just a couple of hours ago but Lermoos has been backed into 9/2 so that just leaves Kauto . 2 points win .

405 chep
Just the one qualifier ULTRAMARINE ....11.88% EDGE 1.66 14/1
1PT EW 

hope you're having a good week fellas !!
i think dorset lady in the 2.40 uttoxeter is worth having a few quid ew, im expecting her to run a good race and keep going well into a place at least. I got her at 50/1 last night shes down to 25s now, good luck everyone !!

Hawaii Du Mestivel 5:15 Uttox (7/1 Bet365). Wasn't going to back this but interesting that's it's already been nibbled at. Been in tracker since catching my eye at Plumpton last November (1st run after 2 years and looked fat). Likes the soft ground which, presumably, not many of these will with it being July and all.
1pt win 7/1 *all the rule 4's have take the 7's down to 9/2 so far, but is now a 5/2 shot currently*
 
P/L: +13pts.
 
Very well backed into fav and they were clearly expecting better, not the best passage through but stayed on for 2nd, probably wants a big further? 

Hawaii Du Mestivel 5:15 Uttox (7/1 Bet365). Wasn't going to back this but interesting that's it's already been nibbled at. Been in tracker since catching my eye at Plumpton last November (1st run after 2 years and looked fat). Likes the soft ground which, presumably, not many of these will with it being July and all.
1pt win 7/1 *all the rule 4's have take the 7's down to 9/2 so far, but is now a 5/2 shot currently*
 
P/L: +13pts.
 
Very well backed into fav and they were clearly expecting better, not the best passage through but stayed on for 2nd, probably wants a big further? 

New approach using my odds against the bookies . Top 3 rated only and looking for value against the bookies . Maximum 2 races a day in the week, Saturday maximum of 4 . Jumps and flats but won’t go any lower than class 4. Will keep running total 2 points staked until or if I get sufficient profit in the running total. 2 points = £2 . 
 
Uttoxeter 4.40
Trapista 28 13/8, my odds 9/2
Envious Editor 27 5/1 , my odds 5/1
Imperial Bede 22 18/1 , my odds 6/1 
Imperial Bede gives me the edge here and its RP forecast price is 9/1 so looks a good value bet . 2 points win bet 

Yes she was never well positioned after a slow start, but won snugly in the end

Sprouted wings in the last half furlong 🤑

Won 

6.30 Kempton-Beauty Nation @ 11-4 with Bet 365
Her first race but want to take on the form horses

4.00 bev
Ran this race through the edge calculation and the stand out results were 
2  7.8%.  12.75 tiss. 18.0 avail edge 1.4
6.11.76 %.  8.5 tiss.  15 avail  edge 1.76
14. 6.86%.  14.5 tiss. 19 avail. Edge 1.30 
Just the one qualifier ....horse 6 with 11.76 probability (over 10% cut off)...14/1 with bet365 so I'll back it Ew with 4 places on offer .....STALLONE  14/1 
Like I said it's the long term performance I'm interested in ...if your constantly backing horses at bigger odds than their implied chance then you should ALWAYS come out on top in the long run ....
this is a side project so doesn't effect my normal ratings which will be separate 
I mean that fav last night had a 6 % probability of winning 16/1 tiss and was available at 7/2 .....ridiculous ....and it finished 5th or 6th ....so it's a guide to whether the horse is purely value or not 
Anything over 1.2 is Interesting but purely for strike rate I'm only considering over 10% probability rated ....I might adjust that to 12 or even 14 later but like today if I set at 12 and today's 11.76 wins then you'd have scrubbed the bet and lost a good winner ....so I think the 10% is a good benchmark 

4th 40/1
 
840 w Cerulean Summer 12/1

Gainsbourg - WON 8/1 - 🤑
Sycamore Gap - lost - never settled for apprentice jockey. Not beaten that far, and I will give another chance - especially if a pro jockey rides.