MCLARKE

Your strike is so good may be worth it but agree 💯 it would be pointless unless u really have that edge

Just to confirm I don't have a short price system. In the real world I don't back horses at prices shorter than 6/4 .

My main reasons for watching brief was after watching the UK raiders at Chantilly the other day they seemed miles behind the French & it was the market movers that day who took home the spoils , I also like French racing start & end of their turf season when the going is testing but will give it a few weeks before having a few quid albeit last season wasn't very fruitful unfortunately but good luck to yourself .

For the next 26 days I will enter a lucky 15 selection as I have 26 free bets from my £80 profit from yesterday.
Please be aware that these bets will come with a wealth warning.
I will be looking for value/large price bets - and expect no returns.
If I get lucky there will be no cashouts at all.
Eyes down look in-
Day 1
Chepstow    2.00    Miss Get The Veuve  8/1
Cork            2.40    Petite Mike              25/1
Cork            3.50    Wowsham               33/1
Chepstow    4.55    Sweet Caryline          9/1
potential returns £10,477.10

You are probably right, it was just easier to calculate based on the last match. It was enough to put me off my initial assumption about the likelihood of draws. I suppose I've scratched the itch. I'll return to horse racing and just bet on football where there is a decent offer.
I suspect any forecasting models I develop will have already been developed by other football bettors. I'll have a bash before the new season starts, I think I did make a profit last time backing outsiders in the premier league where 1 bookie was offering higher odds than the average but the bets were few and far between.

Most winners
Lots of permutations with 9 days to go

My monies on @Johnrobertsonhanging in there with shrewdly chosen odds on shots

Most winners
Lots of permutations with 9 days to go

Next match is Italy v England
Another tight match with Italy 7/4 and England at 13/8 for the win
Using my previous logic I would back England to win the match and 1st half and over 2 goals in the match at 7/1
Or back the home team at 15/2 ?
Or back BTTS instead of the over 2 goals at 10/1 for both teams ?
I am open to persuasion

A winner so one out of 3 so far. 
£60 staked (£20 max per boosted bets), return to initial odds = £54 for a £6 loss with an ROI of -10%. Return with winnings boost applied = £62.50 for a £2.50 profit with an ROI of 4.17%.
This is just a paper trade experiment to see how I might do if this boost was available to me. The expectation is I'd lose at the original odds but the question is whether the 25% boost could edge the selections into profit.

By my maths you’d need it to happen around 3 or 4 times in every 100 games you bet on, I worked through a couple of examples where you’d be making a small profit at the 2/1 and need 4 extra wins at the 7/4 to be better off (3 fell just short). The difference between the implied odds of the 2 prices is 3.03%.
My gut feel was that dropping from 2/1 to 7/4 was pushing it in terms of being worthwhile, if you’d said 19/10 I’d have probably agreed. Just had a quick look at tomorrow’s England game where Sky Bet go 15/8 for Italy to win but 7/4 if you want the 2-up protection, just 1.58% difference. So I’d have said that 2/1 to 7/4 is a bit too big a drop and it’s worth seeing if a bookie who “charges” for the protection might offer you a better option than 365 who give it for free.

Ludlow. 
Double. 
4.10. First Figaro       9/2
5.20. No No Tango      4/1
singles & double 
Double. 
3.00. Ludl. Cartonne     2/1
5.10. Sedg. Lovin.Jukebox    4/1
singles & double. 
Good luck all. 

Corals are still bog from when they publish a market. It’s normally the day before but they are always one of the last out of the big boys to put the prices up.

It is a sobering thought, I suspect that it is already happening with various bots, AI will make it worse. There again there are so many variables that even AI will struggle to pick the winner of every race. I expect there will still be profits to be made on Betfair by going against the crowd.

Cluain Aodha     5.10 Warwick      12/1 hills

3rd.        Returns £19.50                      + £717.50.

A little footnote to backing barnsley
I did it with bet365 who pay out if a team takes a 2 goal lead but they don't settle for about 15 mins and quote lower cash outs up to settlement.
So if you have an account with bet365 and they are offering early payout it is well worth considering even if you can get better odds elsewhere.
Had they not paid out early there would have been a rollercoaster of emotions with wednesday pulling back to 2-2 before conceding 2 in the last 10 minutes.

Good day did have £47 cash out but took chance 😂 @Zilzalian
out £6 in £24.64 +£18.64
day 4 bank £50.52 +£22.52
Thanks for this Lee - just for some interest I copied your selections  and noted the non runner - I replaced with Lady Pacifico and was rewarded with another 3rd place at 33/1 - earned a profit of £80.15 - not bad for a quiet day😀
Keep up the good work - nice to see longer odds paying out from time to time😀
Top Man

It is a sobering thought, I suspect that it is already happening with various bots, AI will make it worse. There again there are so many variables that even AI will struggle to pick the winner of every race. I expect there will still be profits to be made on Betfair by going against the crowd.

I have found BET365 to be best of the bookies. However it all depends on personal experience.

Placed 100/1 
+£240
+£167 march
-£1150 1st oct 2022
+£795 1st oct 2020

Out of luck last week with a couple of frustrating 2nd. Thursday we are off to Warrnambool for the first time this season with 3 jumps races on the card   Race 1   Nelson might be familiar name as he was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5th and 6th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He has had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup last week. He was 6th in that and it was a solid enough run which he clearly is going to benefit from. What I think is more important though is his hurdle trials. His 2nd was here and I really liked the way he attacked his hurdles. He is the best of these on the Flat.   Toyetic is a stablemate of Nelson and has won 5 times on the Flat. He's been well beaten in both Flat starts this year, but did win both his hurdle trials. He jumped well enough, but I wouldn't say as well as Nelson and his trial at Warrnambool was way slower than Nelson's. I'd say the fact Pateman is on Nelson is proof that he is the stable's first string.   Rudimental was useful enough when he first came over from France and had a couple of decent showings last April including a 3rd in the Terang Cup. He has really lost his form since then though and has struggled to even beat a horse home. Dropped all the way into BM58 company at Ararat last time and was only 5th. He did win his hurdle trial last time which was certainly a step in the right direction and that he might find some form over hurdles.   Zoffany Rocket and Buffalo Bill were both 3rd last week at Terang. The former was well beaten in much the quicker division whereas the latter stayed on to be beaten a length in the slower division. Both are long term maidens though and I think they will struggle here. Armansky has been well beaten in weak flat races this year and might struggle here.   Nelson is long odds on here which is no surprise and he should win. Whilst I suspect a Maher 1-2 is the most likely result I am happy enough to leave the race alone from a betting perspective.   Race 2 This looks a pretty weak handicap hurdle and last week's Terang winner San Remo must have an excellent chance of following up. He did have the perfect run that day just sitting off the pace and then being sent on as they left the back straight. It was a good ride, but this race doesn't look any harder and I think he can beat the Musgrove 3. Youl Dash For Cash hasn't been seen over hurdles since he won at Morphettville in 2019. He was off until January 2021 had 3 Flat starts and then only had a couple of jump outs last year. This year he had 2 jump outs before a couple of Flat runs were he only beat 1 horse home each time. He's had two hurdle trials which were OK and then was a well beaten last at Stony Creek last week. He's 11 now and whilst he might improve for going back over hurdles I would rather see how he gets on first. Onset finally managed to win over hurdles last season when winning at Casterton and went on to win two more times at Sale and again at Casterton. He's had some trials and a couple of Flat runs and is a fairly solid horse, but I suspect he might need another run or 2 to get up to fitness. Good old Cheners was 3rd in this race last year and the fact he has only won twice in 31 jumps starts tells you how hard he finds it to win. Outside of the Musgrove horses there is just Epizeel who won the 2nd division of the maiden at Terang last week. I think that is weak form though and San Remo's winning time was over 2 seconds quicker.   There is little between the two Terang winners at the head of the market, but I would have San Remo further ahead myself so happy to back him to follow up that win.   San Remo 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power   Race 3 Police Camp ran a hell of a race to finish 2nd in the Grand Annual over 5500m here last May, but that just highlights he needs a stamina test and I suspect connections are working him towards peaking him in May rather than March. I thought Historic had a chance last week at Terang, but he was already finding himself outpaced when he was severely checked avoiding a faller at the 4th. Given how far back he was I find it hard to back him here and looks a bit short in the market. Mighty Oasis dropped away very tamely last week in the BM120 Hurdle after making the running. He trailed well enough over the fences here prior to that so might improve here, but he looks very short in the betting at 10/11. The Beehive did show a little promise in 4 hurdle stats to date and was solid enough on the Flat at Pakenham last time. He trailed here prior to that and it was an interesting run as he started off out the back and then made up plenty of ground to end up joining the front two who were well clear. He certainly seemed to take well to the larger obstacles.    With Rexmont a non-runner it might mean Mighty Oasis gets a fairly easy lead and that might be key, but he dropped away very tamely last week and I just can't make him an odds on shot to win this. Historic does have the ability to win this, but I didn't like the way he was so far back at Terang before being forced out of the race. With Police Squad needing a stronger test of stamina that leaves us with The Beehive. Based on his trial here he might just turn out to be a better chaser than hurdler so I will take a chance on him being able to win this on his chasing debut.   The Beehive 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill and Betfred