MCLARKE

Curragh 15.45 Pale Iris 1pt win @ 10/1 Betfred

Wicked Willy continued to drift. In the end I had a small ew with sky bet at SP as they don't do BOG with extra places. 
It stayed in touch during the whole race without ever looking like a potential winner. But it did grab the 4th place.
The winner was the favourite and only horse in the race to be backed to any major extent.
1pt each way = total stake 2pt
Return 4.6pt
Profit 2.6pt
Can I claim that as a success? Not sure but at least its not a loss.

If they are backed, and then drift later seems ok. Just drifting is a big negative for me judged on results (always exceptions of course).

My first selection of the flat season. This is from a number of systems I am operating.
Last season went very well with a profit of 128 points from 900 selections. I am therefore hopeful of a good flat season this year, although I had similar high hopes for the jumps season but ended up making a loss so we shall see. 
Windsor 4.16
BRINGSTY 4/1
This system is based on horses that finished 2nd last time, ran more than 22 days ago and carry more than 8st 12lb.

My first selection of the flat season. This is from a number of systems I am operating.
Last season went very well with a profit of 128 points from 900 selections. I am therefore hopeful of a good flat season this year, although I had similar high hopes for the jumps season but ended up making a loss so we shall see. 
Windsor 4.16
BRINGSTY 4/1
This system is based on horses that finished 2nd last time, ran more than 22 days ago and carry more than 8st 12lb.

My first selection of the flat season. This is from a number of systems I am operating.
Last season went very well with a profit of 128 points from 900 selections. I am therefore hopeful of a good flat season this year, although I had similar high hopes for the jumps season but ended up making a loss so we shall see. 
Windsor 4.16
BRINGSTY 4/1
This system is based on horses that finished 2nd last time, ran more than 22 days ago and carry more than 8st 12lb.

Curragh 4.55
OTTAWA FIRE 10/3
£10 EW BET VICTOR 6 places

My first selection of the flat season. This is from a number of systems I am operating.
Last season went very well with a profit of 128 points from 900 selections. I am therefore hopeful of a good flat season this year, although I had similar high hopes for the jumps season but ended up making a loss so we shall see. 
Windsor 4.16
BRINGSTY 4/1
This system is based on horses that finished 2nd last time, ran more than 22 days ago and carry more than 8st 12lb.

We have to remember the old adage that horses are not machines, especially young horses that haven't raced much and are still in the development stage.

When a horse drifts is this a warning sign?
I haven't done a lot of analysis but on a system I use for short priced favourites those horses that drifted showed a loss at SP, those that shortened showed a profit.

Bet Victor offer 5 places even with 15 runners.
HIGHLIGHT REEL and ANTAGONIZE offer excellent each way value at 9/2.

When a horse drifts is this a warning sign?
I haven't done a lot of analysis but on a system I use for short priced favourites those horses that drifted showed a loss at SP, those that shortened showed a profit.

Bet Victor offer 5 places even with 15 runners.
HIGHLIGHT REEL and ANTAGONIZE offer excellent each way value at 9/2.

@MCLARKE its an excellent point you raise.
Its drifting out on the exchange as well. And bet365 are now 18/1.
If it was a short priced fancy or if the market changes were down to a steamer I'd be more worried. Obviously the drift isn't a sign of market confidence but I'll still have a pop for 2 main reasons
1 my value angle means i could be getting 18/1 plus on a horse i thought would be 7/1. That i find hard to resist. Couple in extra places for the each way and I think you then have an angle you can benefit from over the long term
2 I'm not sure if its the tale wagging the dog but the prices offered by bookies invariably seem to reflect the exchange - the bookies will catch up a couple of minutes after a shortening on the exchange. They are slower to follow drifters. But at this time the amount on the exchange (7k total market)  is a tiny fraction of what it will end up at. For me, this isnt necessarily a great indicator of likely SP.
I'll probably play closer to the off but a further drift nearer post time I would definitely interpret as a negative
 

We have to remember the old adage that horses are not machines, especially young horses that haven't raced much and are still in the development stage.

Well done to @Joalesand @Kingdom forfor picking the winner of the 1000 Guineas.

WINDSOR 3.41
SEVENAL 6/5
BET365

Well done to @Joalesand @Kingdom forfor picking the winner of the 1000 Guineas.

Thanks MCLARKE for all your efforts. It is appreciated.
Congratulations to all the winners (certainly not me, doing better with the football). 

Norma   3 00  newm   1/2  pt    win   @ 85/1  betfair 
Mother Earth   3 40  newm   1/2  pt  win  @  15/1  betfair 
Vadream   3 40  newm   1 pt  win  @  25/1  betfair
 
P/L  =  + 109  pts    

Mother earth wins 10/1 !!....that better 
Back up to +511.00

Today's NAP:
Newmarket 15:40
Mother Earth - Each Way
@13.00 Bet365
Thanks!

Newmarket 15:40 Mother Earth 12/1 EW Bet365

A profitable start to the month led by @adamross with 18/1 winner Trumps Benefit.

Thanks for Comp.
Well done winners.
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