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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Second top rated is Sarahs Verse in the 5.55 at Bath.

    She obtained her best speed figure at this course on heavy going last October,

    She has been running on the all weather since.

    She last won on this card last year off a rating of 70 so looks well in on today's rating of 61.

    Not surprisingly she is favourite at 9/4.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Still very much in the testing stage but my top rated horse today is Blind Beggar in the 3.43 at Bath.

    It obtained its best speed figure last May at Leicester on going described as Soft (Heavy In Places) so today's heavy going shouldn't be an issue. That was over 6 furlongs but it has won over today's distance of 5 furlongs twice since then.

    Last won off a rating of 84 so today's rating of 82 is not an issue.

    Available at 12/1 so perhaps worth a small bet.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 7th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

    Quick question re bookmakers, who would people recommend to use? Someone who also prices up Aus/US races early like Bet365 because at the moment I only have Betway and obviously it's good to have options. 

    I would open as many as possible and take advantage of all the opening and ongoing offers, there's thousands to be made if you play it right. Certainly I would open all the ones that are listed on oddschecker, then you can make sure you get the best prices.

    BLACK FRIDAY OFFERS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    ROAD TO WEMBLEY won SP 8/13, MICHAEL SMITH won, LIVERPOOL won

    £39.92 profit less £7.50 casino

    Total profit £ 1,497.84

    KEMPTON 4.25 NOTABLE SPEECH 4/5 £20 20% boost

    CHELMSFORD 5.45 KING OF ITHACA 27/5 £20 20% boost

    UTTOXETER 3.55 NOT SURE 11/10 £10 10% boost

    SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY 3/1 £5

    MANCHESTER UNITED / SC FREIBURG / FC UNION BERLIN 150/1 £6 10% boost

    EVERTON / TOTTENHAM / SC BRAGA / FC PORTO 7/2 £10

     

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I didn't expect to make a profit but I was a little surprised and a tad disappointed that the returns were worse than just betting randomly.

    However I think that most punters make a bet based on the last run of the horse so good last runs are probably overbet.

    There is still a lot more analysis to do (I have another 10 years of raw data to clean and analyse) and also I will look at the results of all the runs after the speed figure was obtained. The saying that form is temporary but class is permanent may well be relevant here.

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

    What are these boosts mate? Would you recommend BETMGM?

    I seem to be the only one but BETMGM has been one of the best accounts I have opened. I have a few mug bets and a dabble on the casino to try and avoid being shut down and so far I've made just short of £ 1,500 since opening the account at the end of November.

    On a Saturday and Sunday they offer 2 20% profit boosts, 10% for the rest of the week. Also they have offers on football / darts etc.

    You can see my progress on a separate thread BLACK FRIDAY OFFERS - Page 9 - At The Races - Racing Forum - Punters Lounge Forum

     

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I think I would bet based on its best speed figure.

    However as with most bets you cannot use speed figures without taking other factors into considerations, specifically odds, draw etc. and also the conditions of today's race, is it on the same going / distance etc. as when the speed figure was obtained.

    Hopefully all will be revealed as I dig further into my data.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    First run of the numbers and a bit of a sobering conclusion.

    I have analysed the 2023 flat season and recorded the results of the next run.

    I have split the results between the top 50% and bottom 50%.

    The top 50% show a strike rate of 13% and an AE of 0.98.

    The bottom 50% show a strike rate of 6% and an AE of 1.02.

    This is obviously not the way to use speed figures. In fact Nick Mordin did indicate this when he quoted "in a series of 200 races, the horse with the highest speed rating on its last run won 30% of the time but returned a 18% loss".

    I need to do a bit more digging to find that gold !

     

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